Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Random Task said:
While the rest of us watch it on the news.

I struggle to believe the foremost world leaders can view these scenes on not feel utterly compelled to intervene. It's basic instincts.
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Whats even scummier is the delay in Ukraine joining NATO, IMO NATO we’re scared of the ramifications, and kept kicking it down the road.
 
again if anyone is interested to follow the live cams



or if you are on twitter these are the people to follow
Euromaidan PR
IIIia Ponomarenko
Anastasiia Lapatin
Olexander Scherba
Nolan Peterson
 
youmeletsfly said:
Hungary and Romania have the best military positions in Europe for a country like Russia that would be looking to expand its influence. Also the US does a lot of dubious shit around here. They will surely step in if situation escalates towards these two.
Ukraine is Ukraine, but if Russia somehow steps on Hungary and Romania, they have fecking access to the whole of Europe.

At the moment, the situation is viewed mostly from a political standpoint, but from a military one, the countries around Ukraine are the most important for Putin and the Russians kinda want them back for like what, 30/40 years?

However you look at the situation, it's bad, very very bad. If the whole western world bows to Putin, what next? In 2-3 years he'll invade another country?

In regards to India and China, they'll jump ship to NATO the second Russia goes over a NATO territory.
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I reckon he would need to stabilize Ukraine completely before he could move on to Poland/Romania/Hungary. And stabilizing Ukraine will take so much of their resources that I'm not entire sure he will have much left. It's one thing to go in and destroy cities but there'll be plenty of follow up after that, guerrilla insurgency etc.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
??? A NATO member being at war with Russia certainly means WWIII and WWIII certainly means nuclear war. There obviously is a line, a line which was drawn long time ago and still is relevant today: if a NATO member is attacked. Nothing else will mean NATO involvement, even if the whole of Ukraine is burried.
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I'm not a fan of hypothetical wargaming but an intervention here would mean closure of the air-space and bombing of a tank column or two to lift on-going seiges. Things could escalate of course if Putin refuses to sit down at the table at that point. There would be no actual military threat to Russian mainland or Putin himself. There would need to be 100 levels of escalation before Putin decides suicide by nuke is the way forward.
 
Sarni said:
That is impossible. They are sending large amount of their soldiers, planes and tanks here even without imminent danger of invasion. You reckon they'd all just leave if the war started, and are here just for fun?
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Ya I would ignore people saying that Article 5 won't be respected, now if Trump was president, sure there would be a point since he actively signaled he would look to withdraw from NATO if he won a second term, but most establishment politicians of both political parties in the US hold article 5 as absolutely non-negotiable. Even folks like Bernie Sanders would honor Article 5. In a European war, I would see the US and UK join the fight with the Eastern flank countries while the likes of Germany and Italy run away and engage in sham platitudes and peace negotiations. France would probably fight too depending on who the president is (for what it's worth I think Macron would fight). Hope I'm wrong on Germany/Italy part but the SWIFT conversation has been an eye opener.
 
Sarni said:
I might have some over the weekend at my current or other place, though my Ukrainian friends I contacted said their families cannot leave Ukraine anymore as they are between 18-60 and wives do not want to leave their husbands alone. This is fecked up. Will be doing some shopping to provide basic stuff to the shelters later today.
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@Sarni we have to stick together. I am letting my Ukranian worker stay in my cottage with her son and one on the way. Her husband couldnt leave Ukraine
 
red4ever 79 said:
again if anyone is interested to follow the live cams



or if you are on twitter these are the people to follow
Euromaidan PR
IIIia Ponomarenko
Anastasiia Lapatin
Olexander Scherba
Nolan Peterson
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It looks empty but so normal otherwise. Spooky stuff, people just walking when you know it's going to be so violent there so soon...
 
There is a US Blackhawk moving at a snails pace 5km from the Ukrainian border in Poland.
 
VorZakone said:
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Draghi has been praised for stabilising the Italian economy but with this, he's solidifying the image of the EU bureaucrats who are only out for themselves.

I've not heard nearly enough from the French and they seem to have the right balance in my opinion. If Macron thinks he's top dog in the EU, he needs to show it.
 
Yeah I'll totally take a telegraph reporter talking about the EU at face value too.

ffs.

A newspaper that's lived on misinformation about the EU for the past 8 years. Quote Lavrov next please.
 
Siorac said:
That's the theory, anyway. As I said earlier, I'm not sure the US and other leading powers would risk WW3 for the sake of protecting Latvia or Hungary. Regardless of what is written in treaties.
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They most definitely would. NATO doesn't distinguish just because of the size or even importance of a member state. And it has to do that because Latvia or Hungray today could mean Poland or Rumania or even Germany tomorrow.
It is abundantly clear that Putin fears NATO and rightly so. That is precisely why he is attacking Ukraine. Because he fears a NATO state on his border.
 
I'm shocked at the scale of this, just wasn't expecting Putin to be so bold.. going straight after Kiev like this, its just mental...

I'm seeing a lot of tweets that look like war crimes.. I mean wtf? I just can't even comprehend this
 
Simbo said:
I'm not a fan of hypothetical wargaming but an intervention here would mean closure of the air-space and bombing of a tank column or two to lift on-going seiges. Things could escalate of course if Putin refuses to sit down at the table at that point. There would be no actual military threat to Russian mainland or Putin himself. There would need to be 100 levels of escalation before Putin decides suicide by nuke is the way forward.
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It's all just hypothetical, as putin won't touch NATO. But I'm pretty sure, total escalation would be around the corner very, very fast.
 
Adam-Utd said:
No chance that's the same car? it looks absolutely flat packed
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I saw a video of it earlier, I think he got out unscathed but was shell-shocked. They also did this yesterday with another car where a woman got out from one side.

This is the problem with war and soldiers in general. They might be quite young and (as harsh as it sounds) not be very good at much else except violence. You give them a licence to fight and no matter what supposed rules there are, atrocities occur.
 
red4ever 79 said:
@Sarni we have to stick together. I am letting my Ukranian worker stay in my cottage with her son and one on the way. Her husband couldnt leave Ukraine
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Yeah I got a spare apartment in Krakow and basically have 3 spare rooms at home so will take in whoever is in need. My parents have a few other places and I'm convincing them to lend them for the next few weeks. Right now I don't have anyone that I know in need but this will come eventually I reckon.

I have given a girl from my team whose father is stuck in Kharkiv time off and will not be expecting her to be able to work until she lets me know she is.
 
IWat said:
No expert but it looks like it's taken fire from the air. Those look like holes from large rounds in the roof.
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It looks like an RPG entered the cabin and opened it up. There are bullet holes at the side of the truck as well. It was definitely ambushed.
 
So the next anti-war social media campaign will be boycotting Italian haute couture. What a time to be alive.
 
Buster15 said:
It is abundantly clear that Putin fears NATO and rightly so. That is precisely why he is attacking Ukraine. Because he fears a NATO state on his border.
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No, and he said it in plain text. He doesnt consider Ukraine a sovereign country, and it was always Russian territory to him.
 
Buster15 said:
They most definitely would. NATO doesn't distinguish just because of the size or even importance of a member state. And it has to do that because Latvia or Hungray today could mean Poland or Rumania or even Germany tomorrow.
It is abundantly clear that Putin fears NATO and rightly so. That is precisely why he is attacking Ukraine. Because he fears a NATO state on his border.
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His country already borders on NATO states. His planes brreak NATO country space many times a year. The invasion is not about another NATO state (which Ukraine is not and has never been) appearing on Russias border, it is about not having a democratic Slavic country that could decide its own fate.
 
Sarni said:
I reckon he would need to stabilize Ukraine completely before he could move on to Poland/Romania/Hungary. And stabilizing Ukraine will take so much of their resources that I'm not entire sure he will have much left. It's one thing to go in and destroy cities but there'll be plenty of follow up after that, guerrilla insurgency etc.
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That's when desperation comes in and that's the moment where Putin will start threatening with nuclear power, unfortunately. The whole planet knows Russia is years behind in military resources and technology and can't handle an extensive battle as it will feck em up rather quickly, but, as long as they have the nukes, they're as powerful as any other country on the planet.

However we look at the situation, if it doesn't settle down in a few weeks, this will very dirty and very fast.
 
Buster15 said:
They most definitely would. NATO doesn't distinguish just because of the size or even importance of a member state. And it has to do that because Latvia or Hungray today could mean Poland or Rumania or even Germany tomorrow.
It is abundantly clear that Putin fears NATO and rightly so. That is precisely why he is attacking Ukraine. Because he fears a NATO state on his border.
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He already has NATO states on his border though? It's a bad justification.
 
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