Good post.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Good post.
I'm afraid that without the US, this would only be a dream.
But I don't think Russia would actually launch nukes. I don't think he is crazy to do that.
A real red line most likely is there, but so is the line where he actually starts negotiating in good faith and cut his losses.
Or that everyone down the chain of command would follow that order. That's true for most countries.
That said, I think the red line is there for Putin. Question is how far in it truly is. I don't think NATO boots in the ground in Ukraine for defensive purposes would do it.
Boots on the ground aren't a deterrent for missile and drone attacks on Ukraine infrastructure.
This is a really good point. And maybe more important. Where is the red line for Putin and where is the red line for the guy standing next to him with a gun in his holster.
A republican friend (old school as we have them in Vermont) sent me this:
Trump 'considering large-scale sanctions and tariffs' on Russia after wave of strikes on Ukraine
Donald Trump says he's considering new sanctions and tariffs on Russia, following a wave of overnight strikes on Ukraine.
He writes: "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.
"To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cg70jylp32gt
Donald Trump says he's considering new sanctions and tariffs on Russia, following a wave of overnight strikes on Ukraine.
He writes: "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.
"To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cg70jylp32gt
I have no idea who the guy is but can we please make him president of Europe?
I think he finally solved the conflict, nobody could say no to such an eloquent and intriguing appeal.
Saw a shorter clip of this guy yesterday where he called Musk a "jester on ketamine".....
That upside down Ukrainian flag triggers my OCD.
OCD can be a good thing. Use it to perfect your work.
Don't know if anyone here is paying attention to the actual war going on, but the escalation Russia began late last summer appears to be running its course, signs of attrition setting in. I was perhaps generous giving them 1.5 years to take Pokrovsk once they reached its outskirts, but we'll see how much effect the US supplies issue has later this year.
They have ramped up UAV attacks though.
They have ramped up UAV attacks though.
I think highly doubtful - the nuke deterrent goes both ways. That is why it's important, as sad as it is, that both sides have them. If tomorrow France randomly sends peacekeeping troops into Ukraine, Putin will do nothing other than blast propaganda about how NATO has joined the war, how he will use nukes, how he'll do all these things he'll never actually do because France is a nuclear power.
Situation is worsening for Ukraine in Kursk. Might have to pull out sooner or later.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-attack-force-ukraine-consider-pull-out-kursk/
Yikes.
What an f*ing imbecile. First Trump invites Putin to bomb the hell out of the Ukraine by stopping the exchange of intelligence with the Ukraine, then he complains that Putin takes this invitation.
You can't make this shit up.
Trump farcically contradicting himself in the same paragraph. He's just making it up as he goes.
Who in he US is buying Russian stuff that tariffs would affect??
You could make it up, but it would be rejected by any half decent producer for being too outlandish.
I think it is abundantly clear that over Ukraine, and nearly every other international geopolitical issue, the US stance is decided day to day depending on what side of bed Trump got out of, and what he saw on morning TV. That’s not even supposed to be a sarcastic or satirical take, I genuinely believe it is the most accurate possible description of current US foreign policy operations.
I would imagine that behind the scenes the mood amongst career diplomats is one of abject panic. The volatility, lack of direction or transparency, absence of any cohesive policy direction, and untethered, irrational statements and decision making from the very top, is making any strategic or diplomatic efforts on their part essentially impossible. No one trusts the US at this point, not their enemies - understandably - and not their allies - alarmingly.
What Trump is currently doing is going to change the face of geopolitics for a generation, and that change will be entirely unplanned and unintended. There isn’t even an understanding in the Oval Office or beyond as to what the consequences will be, because none of it is planned. It’s just knee jerk behaviour following an overarching philosophy of xenophobia, isolationism, and narrow self interest. The rest of the world, especially the US’ closest “allies” e.g. Europe, will be badly affected in the short term; but in the long term I do believe that it is the necessary push the EU, UK, and associated nations need to streamline regulation to become more competitive, and prioritise military and energy self dependence, which will ultimately result in significantly more strength and influence on the global stage,
IF (necessary to capitalise it) the UK and Europe can cooperate and invest heavily in defence, military technology and renewable energy, these can become major markets for export, as it seems the US is only going to become more isolationist and vacate some of that space globally. Pushing hard to develop the European tech sector, so it can ultimately rival Silicon Valley, is a necessity, because it’s an area where we have all lagged behind. Yet some of the sharpest minds and ideas are in Europe. The green movement towards sustainable fuels and renewable energy is an open goal. It’s unavoidable that the world will have to move in that direction, and the US under Trump is not going to invest in anything other than fossil fuels.
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If someone has a car that needs gas or they are eating food that needs fertilizers to grow, probably them
First use of Mirage aircraft I think?
Maxar responds.
You must surely see that Trump's foreign policy is just whatever benefits Russia and is entirely predictable? They are obviously working together so if you want to predict what Trump will do, just look at what Putin wants.
I said this back in November:
and this:
Honestly, its not difficult. Its making me feel smart or something, but I guess I've just spent more time reading about Trump than most. Even if you don't believe it, force your paradigm for a week into the idea that he is a full on Russian asset and watch everything start to make sense.
He's released a couple statements today pretending he's 'tough on Russia'. Its just headlines to drown certain people in, the media laps it up and so do the people. Trump's strategists know exactly what they are doing, its very, very easy for them.
At least 14 killed, 37 wounded in Russian missile strike on Ukraine, Kyiv says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-missile-strike-ukraine-kyiv-says-2025-03-08/
So then going back to Stewart’s thread, what is a superpower then?
Either Russia is a superpower (at least a regional superpower) and the combined European continent can’t deal with them , even now, despite at least 4 economies being individually larger and the military budget of the UK, despite not being on a war footing, not even being that far behind Russia’s. In which case, Stewart is wrong.
Or he’s right, in which case you can see why an American may wonder why their money is going to a conflict on a continent with dozens of countries that should, individually or collectively, be able to deal with this non superpower.
It’s not really as relevant on here because most people want Europe to rearm and disengage to some extent from the Americans. But I get a bit pissed off when Europeans simaltaneously say that Russia is crap and has an economy smaller than Italy and in the same breath have a long thread criticising Trump for falling for Russian propaganda about being a superpower.
If it’s an economy smaller than Italy, get a grip on it ourselves then, without scrambling for ongoing American aid or an American security presence.
A few Points I'd make:
- Russia has/had the arsenal of a once military superpower. An arsenal made to fight the US + Europe combined in all out war. Regardless of what their economy looks like now.
- Ukraine is also at war with North Korea. China is also an unknown factor, there are some Chinese soldiers fighting with Russia. Plus supplies from Iran.
- While both poor countries, Rus + NK are putting everything into military spending.
European defence decisions have also been taken with US commitments in mind, the idea that they would scrap everything overnight has evidently never been considered. It just takes time to transition, time that Putin will now use to massacre as many innocent civilians as possible.
Americans can wonder about their money all they want if they are dumb enough. It hasn't cost them a dime in extra taxes. Allocating <5% of the USA's existing defence budget for a few years to help Ukraine utterly destroy the Soviet stockpiles created to fight the USA and remove the threat of their greatest enemy for the last 70 years once and for all, without risking a single American life.... If anyone can give me an example of a more effective and profitable use of military expenditure throughout human history, I'm all ears.
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Problem is that there is a lot of stuff, especially during his first term, that doesn't fit that heuristic. Antagonisation and attempts to strongarm Ukraine were entirely predictable (although I absolutely didn't expect Republicans to be this fecking pathetic and completely roll over on everything without any pressure), what he keeps doing now that he's used the few shitty tactics that didn't work is the questionable part.
Germany is discussing to pull out of the F35 deal. I hope we will do it.
What's the purpose to spend billions on weapon system that can't be operated without the US and the US could just deactivate if they wanted.
Hopefully more countries following. The will be a big blow for the US military complex.
Not sure whether this is correct. In a German talk show military experts were comparing the adjusted spending power on military of the EU and Russia.
Numbers discussed were between 430 billions (EU) to 370 billions to 470 billions (EU) to 487 billions.
This isn't taking into account that Europe has an abundance of weapon systems which isn't cost effective and extremely expensive in maintenance.
I really hope that EU countries can agree on smaller number of systems to increase efficiency and reduce cost. This will be crucial, if Europe will succeed in building a competitive army that will deter Putin.(Unfortunately, I doubt it will happen).
Like what? He made Paul Manafort his campaign manager ffs, as obvious a Russian agent as it gets without it being stamped on his forehead, straight from being kicked out of Ukraine with his former boss who went into hiding in Russia. Then Flynn as National Security Advisor, Felix Sater, Wilbur Ross, Rex Tillerson, Rick Gates, Bannon, Carter Page, etc, all employed in top positions by Trump for their ties to Russia.
Trump plus that team spent all first term spreading Russian propaganda. He also did everything he could to block Russian sanctions, the difference then was that he wasn't in full control of congress and the entire government for that matter.
Mueller testified he would have indicted Trump for obstruction of justice over the Russian investigations if not for the ruling over a sitting president by Trump's childhood friend. The investigations into conspiracy were never concluded for the same reason.
His attempt to trap Zelenskyy in a corruption scandal over weapons was also a typically Russian MO. If he went along with that, he wouldn't be leading Ukraine today and they would potentially be in a much darker place.
Do you have any info on that?
I assume that you don't mean that there are Chinese nationals but active Chinese military personnel? Otherwise it's a WWIII already — just from what I can recall there are Nepali, Indian, Mongolian, Kygryz, Kazakh etc. nationals fighting for Russia and there are many volunteers, including from NATO states and, well, even Russia itself, fighting for Ukraine.
Pardon me for being a fact-checking nerd. I just hate half-truth statements that get thrown in as bonus arguments and later get imbedded into the discourse because no one bothers to question them. China has its role in the conflict, far from being neutral — mostly to support Russia economically, help it to bypass Western sanctions and smuggle in technological stuff that can be repurposed in military capacity. It doesn't send its troops to Ukraine (even though I'm sure there are some Chinese citizens fighting for Russia, they've been openly inviting anyone willing, Russian citizen or not, to step into the meat grinder).