Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Plus the Russian haven’t exactly blitzed their way through Ukraine over the last 3 years and aren’t they needing extra recruits from North Korea? Or is that fake news.
My worry is that Russia has probably learned a lot from its invasion of Ukraine. Plus, Ukraine has had the US behind them until now, with advanced weaponry and intelligence. I also feel Putin has held back on crossing certain lines (e.g. battlefield nukes) which he might consider if US retaliation wasn't a threat.

Ultimately, who knows. On paper, Europe should be able to call on vastly greater industrial and manufacturing capacity than Russia, so all else being equal, you'd hope we would win a traditional conflict (if given enough time to prepare). I hope we never find out.
 
My worry is that Russia has probably learned a lot from its invasion of Ukraine. Plus, Ukraine has had the US behind them until now, with advanced weaponry and intelligence. I also feel Putin has held back on crossing certain lines (e.g. battlefield nukes) which he might consider if US retaliation wasn't a threat.

Ultimately, who knows. On paper, Europe should be able to call on vastly greater industrial and manufacturing capacity than Russia, so all else being equal, you'd hope we would win a traditional conflict (if given enough time to prepare). I hope we never find out.
Yeh, hopefully a fair cease fire agreement for the Ukraine will be found.
 
My worry is that Russia has probably learned a lot from its invasion of Ukraine. Plus, Ukraine has had the US behind them until now, with advanced weaponry and intelligence. I also feel Putin has held back on crossing certain lines (e.g. battlefield nukes) which he might consider if US retaliation wasn't a threat.

Ultimately, who knows. On paper, Europe should be able to call on vastly greater industrial and manufacturing capacity than Russia, so all else being equal, you'd hope we would win a traditional conflict (if given enough time to prepare). I hope we never find out.

Knowing shit about war, I think Europe would not be able to win a war that would entail entering Russia, but a war defending Ukraine and recover the territory should not be a problem. Europe should have far more air superiority than Russia and from there should be able to advance steadily. But again I can stress enough that I don't know anything about warfare and military capabilities of Russia vs Europe
 
People are overlooking how much more complicated it is for Europe to present a consistent united front. I know it’s been mentioned but it cannot be understated. European countries are also battling their own surge of the far right. In a hypothetical of Europe as one, sure. But that’s just not the reality.
 
Knowing shit about war, I think Europe would not be able to win a war that would entail entering Russia, but a war defending Ukraine and recover the territory should not be a problem. Europe should have far more air superiority than Russia and from there should be able to advance steadily. But again I can stress enough that I don't know anything about warfare and military capabilities of Russia vs Europe
Here is an interesting bit: in ww1 the allies never entered Germany and still Germany completely capitulated. Yes, the revolution was imminent and the frony collapsed, plus all german allies withdrew.

The point is if Europe/Ukraine can exhaust russia it can capitulate. How close is russia to economic collapse? Hard to tell. We know economy is suffering, we know they need help from North Korea. It's not looking good for Russia, but it is not good for Ukraine either. Morale is low, ammo is low and there are manpower issues. If Ukraine decides to fight without US help, they will need to change approach, drastically.. My biggest worry is ifTrump decides to actually back Russia and ease up sanctions.
 
Here is an interesting bit: in ww1 the allies never entered Germany and still Germany completely capitulated. Yes, the revolution was imminent and the frony collapsed, plus all german allies withdrew.

The point is if Europe/Ukraine can exhaust russia it can capitulate. How close is russia to economic collapse? Hard to tell. We know economy is suffering, we know they need help from North Korea. It's not looking good for Russia, but it is not good for Ukraine either. Morale is low, ammo is low and there are manpower issues. If Ukraine decides to fight without US help, they will need to change approach, drastically.. My biggest worry is ifTrump decides to actually back Russia and ease up sanctions.

Oh, I agree. That is why I said that shouldn't be a problem with my limit knowledge. US will certainly easy up sanctions and 100% lift them all. 0 doubts. Still, I think Europe should be able to kick russians from Ukraine but only if they would go full in. that will not happen
 
Those Godlike minerals that US is drooling for, are they on one place (if so on which side) or its through whole territory?
 
Those Godlike minerals that US is drooling for, are they on one place (if so on which side) or its through whole territory?

Ukraine-Mineral-Resources_Site_Elements.jpg
 
Are you saying they don't exist? Or overblown on how much they have?
The latter. These rare earth minerals are for the most part extremely hard to get and the process puts also a massive burden on the environment.

MiNErALs is a buzz word used by Trump to sell his idea of peace, which would be fine if only his cult fell for it. The problem is that the hysteria about them is spreading everywhere.
 
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The latter. These rare earth minerals are for the most part extremely hard to get and the process puts also a massive burden on the environment.

MiNErALs bis a buzz word, used by Trump to sell his idea of peace, which would be fine if only his cult fell for it. The problem is that the hysteria about them is spreading everywhere.
Jesus Christ Marie
 
Alright let me ask you a similar hypothetical. What would happen if the UK did a deal for those minerals? They are an independent sovereign nation so don’t need the votes of rogue EU countries. They’d be gambling on nothing militarily happening from the US side. Perhaps EU might follow if the UK did first step?
Aside from the fact that the UK is already neck deep in this war and already basically helping for free, when did such a deal become even remotely acceptable? Are we going back to the United Fruit Company, BP, or Halliburton times?

These reserves, however big, are Ukraine's property and should never be part of any "transaction".

The EU, and the UK for that matter, are not able to efficiently supply Ukraine or deter Russia in case of a cease-fire. Their economy and military are just not geared for this kind of conflict and it would take years to make the switch, years that Ukraine doesn't have. If you can get the whole European Union on the same page that is, which is impossible in its current iteration.

I also wouldn't put too much trust in the UK. Its servile relationship with the US is much stronger than its ties with the continent, and I doubt that it'll ever change. The slime in 10 Downing Street also doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. Nor that French windsock who sings one tune today and another tomorrow, depending on the domestic situation.
 
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The latter. These rare earth minerals are for the most part extremely hard to get and the process puts also a massive burden on the environment.

MiNErALs is a buzz word, used by Trump to sell his idea of peace, which would be fine if only his cult fell for it. The problem is that the hysteria about them is spreading everywhere.
Cheers. Probably why Trump doesn't want to give security guarantees given that it appears to be a risky investment.
 
Cheers. Probably why Trump doesn't want to give security guarantees given that it appears to be a risky investment.
Trump doesn't want to give guarantees because he doesn't really care about Ukraine and not just him, other US presidents wouldn't give it either on a unilateral basis. If security guarantees happen, and that's a big if, it would be in the form of NATO. But that ain't happening for a while either.

It's not really related to how much natural resources Ukraine does or doesn't have.
 
Trump doesn't want to give guarantees because he doesn't really care about Ukraine and not just him, other US presidents wouldn't give it either on a unilateral basis. If security guarantees happen, and that's a big if, it would be in the form of NATO. But that ain't happening for a while either.

It's not really related to how much natural resources Ukraine does or doesn't have.
If we were talking about a 'normal' president I would normally agree, but Trump is all about the deal and quid pro quo, if it looks like he won't get monetary value out of something he won't do it. Every issue he talks about he always mentions how much money is made/lost.
 
I believe it's also illegal to invade independent countries.
Thus, I would just tell Putin f* you. At least you are going to pay for parts of the weapons that will hold up your army.


Except for Russia and their minions nobody will believe this cheap charade.
America's name and reputation will be tarnished forever.

"Graham said yesterday that he may have to step aside."

This whole attack has the vibe of an alternat universe where we are watching FDR Kick Churchill in the nuts in 1940.

I don't know enough about Ukrainian politics to be sure who would lead them if he did "step aside", but I bet he wouldn't be mandated to give up what Trump is demanding Ukraine give up.
 
The latter. These rare earth minerals are for the most part extremely hard to get and the process puts also a massive burden on the environment.

MiNErALs is a buzz word, used by Trump to sell his idea of peace, which would be fine if only his cult fell for it. The problem is that the hysteria about them is spreading everywhere.
Exactly. I've read some things that basically question what minerals are there, the feasibility of costs of getting it in terms of money, labour, etc and it would essentially amount to massive strip-mining operations with massive ecological/environmental costs, and even if it had success, there's almost no chance any potential profits would arrive during Trump's term.

I think there are 3 parts to this:
1) First, this seems the natural extension of Trump's extremely simplistic world-view that it should be "America First" and the world should pay the U.S. for defending them and keeping them safe, like a mafia boss. I don't think he actually knows or even cares if he actually gets the "minerals" or not. It's just something to play up to his base and prove how "America won't be taken advantage of anymore"
2) As previously mentioned, for whatever reason (we can all speculate), he's increasingly on the side of the Russians and Putin. If the minerals deal breaks down, or if he can put it on national TV that "we've been disrepected by Zelinsky", or whatever, these are all outs and excuses to walk away and hand victory to Putin.
3) The more sinister part is JD Vance and the likes of Peter Thiel, etc. whispering in his ear as well. I have a philosophy degree and I cannot wrap my around this "Techno-anarchy"/"techno monarchy" shite they are into. If you look into it, they are codifying their language, and using some very dodgy pseudo-philosphical/prophetic/god-complex/Christian theocracy crap. So, for example, when they say "liberialism" or "neo-liberalism", it actually doesn't mean what most folks think, "i.e. hippie woke leftists worrying about pronouns and black lives matter". They are referring to "philosophical liberalism", i.e.:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism#:~:text=Liberalism is a political and,and equality before the law

In other words, they are at war with what essentially is the core tenets of "western values" from the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, Magna Carta, American revolution, the "peaceful dissolution" and sometimes not so peaceful dissolution of the European colonial empires, the United Nations, sovereign nation states, the EU, etc. They are looking at things like "Fuedal Ireland" and the American "Wild West" where nations are dissolved and power is solidified into corporations with a CEO who get to act like a monarch.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/18/jd-vance-world-view-sources-00168984

If you don't believe me, look into Curtis Yarvin like the article above said, especially. Vance cited him and says he has the plan to "remove the cancer of liberalism" from the U.S. Government. Project 2025 isn't actually sinister enough compared that that pile of shite.

So, if you want to be thoroughly fecking depressed and really scared, consider that:
1) Trump is looking for any reason to get out of supporting Ukraine. He'll take any reason, even if he has to manufacture it - which he just did.
2) He has an unfathomable affinity for Putin.
3) The people whispering in his ear are lunatics who are disgesting the crap I just posted, and worse, they might actually beleive in it. Trump is obviously too fecking dumb and lazy to read anything, and what he does believe could probably be written on a drink napkin. However, remember, these people around him may actually believe that "burning the whole thing down" is preferred. Remember when Elon said that, "there may be short-term pain"? That is codified in their language/belief/logic system - the super-rich believe they will benefit, or possibly rule, in the long-term - if in the short term the world burns.

Also, watch this crap:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/While_the_Rest_of_Us_Die:_Secrets_of_America's_Shadow_Government

We've reached this point where the ultra-rich are buying islands in New Zealand, etc. and building compounds to live out the apocalypse. Like madmen, like James Bond villains, they are looking to live forever, colonize Mars, or cause the end of the world so they can survive it and rule.
 
Since Trump told so.

Crazy how fast everybody lose their mind and sight of what really matters.
Absolutely mind boggling.

We were told that he would end the war in like 48 hours or something like that. No one said that it would be conditioned on 500B worth of minerals. Suddenly, that’s the “deal.”

This man has a strong influence over our psyche and our minds. He keeps changing the conversation and shifting the goal posts, and this country keeps following him. What’s next?!
 
Here is an interesting bit: in ww1 the allies never entered Germany and still Germany completely capitulated. Yes, the revolution was imminent and the frony collapsed, plus all german allies withdrew.

The point is if Europe/Ukraine can exhaust russia it can capitulate. How close is russia to economic collapse? Hard to tell. We know economy is suffering, we know they need help from North Korea. It's not looking good for Russia, but it is not good for Ukraine either. Morale is low, ammo is low and there are manpower issues. If Ukraine decides to fight without US help, they will need to change approach, drastically.. My biggest worry is ifTrump decides to actually back Russia and ease up sanctions.

I honestly don't see Trump aligning himself with Russia... Not publicly anyway. It would be political suicide internationally and domestically as I think the American public wouldn't stand for it bar the extreme trump fanatics.
 
How on earth did the war in Ukraine become about minerals?!!

Jesus!
Because western journalists have an insane fetish of pretending that Trump always has some sort of a "hidden, real reason" and a "true, long term strategy" behind everything he says, instead of facing the obvious reality that he's a demented psychopath who was never punished for acting only on his most basic, animalistic urges and that's why nothing he says makes any sense on the face value.
 
Cheers. Probably why Trump doesn't want to give security guarantees given that it appears to be a risky investment.
Trump has no idea what he's talking about.

These "minerals" bullshit has been poured into that empty head of his by people around him to serve as a slogan and help selling the idea that the US should give up on Ukraine whilst saving face, with him posing as a peacemaker, getting a yuuuge deal out of it and shitting on the Dems in the process.

And people are lapping it up.
 
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Russia`s invasion of the Ukraine is about its insecurity as a very big landmass with a number of ethnic minorities and has parallels with its Tsarist and Bolshevik history. Russia also decided to act against NATO and of course this is a resources war. However, I`m interested to know why so many ignore or actually don`t know about the so called `Colour Revolutions` in the Ukraine that were sponsored by the USA and its intelligence apparatus.

I don`t think it`s possible to get a better grasp of the power dynamics at work here without looking back to all that. As for Zelensky, I`d prefer countries with western liberal democratic systems hadn`t send billions and will keep sending billions at the request of a kleptocrat mentioned in the Pandora Papers.

I`m sure he`s not the only member of his govenrment who bought real estate worth millions in Israel and the US to name two countries, including for his parents. It seems that the money coming their way for the Ukraine`s defence has also benefited the Ukrainian government/authorities in ways not intended.

To put this all down to Trump being a `maniac` etc does not begin to address issues that have been around before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
 
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Russia`s invasion of the Ukraine is about its insecurity as a very big landmass with a number of ethnic minorities and has parallels with its Tsarist and Bolshevik history. Russia also decided to act against NATO and of course this is a resources war. However, I`m interested to know why so many ignore or actually don`t know about the so called `Colour Revolutions` in the Ukraine that were sponsored by the USA and its intelligence apparatus.

Sponsored? In what way? And what do you think the US were doing that Russia simultaneously wasn't doing? Also, in what way does that affect the outcome in terms of the subsequent direction of Ukrainian politics?
I don`t think it`s possible to get a better grasp of the power dynamics at work here without looking back to all that. As for Zelensky, I`d prefer countries with western liberal democratic systems hadn`t send billions and will keep sending billions at the request of a kleptocrat mentioned in the Pandora Papers.

I`m sure he`s not the only member of his govenrment who bought real estate worth millions in Israel and the US to name two countries, including for his parents. It seems that the money coming their way for the Ukraine`s defence has also benefited the Ukrainian government/authorities in ways not intended.

To put this all down to Trump being a `maniac` etc does not begin to address issues that have been around before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
Why are you making this about Zelensky? Any support isn't for him personally, it's for Ukraine as a country.
 
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The more I read about that fiasco, the more I think it was a setup. Prior to the media meeting, Zelensky had been presented with an adapted deal, without any security guarantees. It was probably a matter of 'sign that or we'll maul you on live tv' (without necessarily explicitly saying that).
 
Russia`s invasion of the Ukraine is about its insecurity as a very big landmass with a number of ethnic minorities and has parallels with its Tsarist and Bolshevik history. Russia also decided to act against NATO and of course this is a resources war. However, I`m interested to know why so many ignore or actually don`t know about the so called `Colour Revolutions` in the Ukraine that were sponsored by the USA and its intelligence apparatus.

I don`t think it`s possible to get a better grasp of the power dynamics at work here without looking back to all that. As for Zelensky, I`d prefer countries with western liberal democratic systems hadn`t send billions and will keep sending billions at the request of a kleptocrat mentioned in the Pandora Papers.

I`m sure he`s not the only member of his govenrment who bought real estate worth millions in Israel and the US to name two countries, including for his parents. It seems that the money coming their way for the Ukraine`s defence has also benefited the Ukrainian government/authorities in ways not intended.

To put this all down to Trump being a `maniac` etc does not begin to address issues that have been around before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Because it wasn't and its a load of nonsense propaganda.
 
Because it wasn't and its a load of nonsense propaganda.
I remember reading an interesting article about the `Orange Revolution` in Ukraine on www.opendemocracy.net back then. You can still find it online and I think it gives another angle to that event and others. The author was Sreeram Chaulia and it was written in 2006. It`s called `Democratization, NGOs and `colour revolutions``.

There`s other information online about this kind of debate. I don`t have any personal connection to the Ukraine or Russia but I do like to find as many different sources on any kind of significant events taking place from different political perspectives. Wars, upheavals, historical events all are much more nuanced than we know.
 
Russia`s invasion of the Ukraine is about its insecurity as a very big landmass with a number of ethnic minorities and has parallels with its Tsarist and Bolshevik history.
Throughout Putin's entire political career (and it's not like it was a policy exclusive to him) he has never shown even a tiniest shred of humanity towards ethnic Russians living inside or outside of Russia's borders. Destabilizing other countries within the region, preferably indefinitely, has always been orders of magnitude more important than making sure that those minorities have anything even remotely resembling a decent life.
The landmass part has always been completely irrelevant for thousands of extremely obvious, nuclear reasons.


Russia also decided to act against NATO and of course this is a resources war.
This has been done to death already. Invasion triggered renewed attempts to join NATO, not the other way around.
Resources are a part of this war, the Trump discussion is about specifically rare metals/rare earth, not resources in general.
 
Throughout Putin's entire political career (and it's not like it was a policy exclusive to him) he has never shown even a tiniest shred of humanity towards ethnic Russians living inside or outside of Russia's borders. Destabilizing other countries within the region, preferably indefinitely, has always been orders of magnitude more important than making sure that those minorities have anything even remotely resembling a decent life.
The landmass part has always been completely irrelevant for thousands of extremely obvious, nuclear reasons.



This has been done to death already. Invasion triggered renewed attempts to join NATO, not the other way around.
Resources are a part of this war, the Trump discussion is about specifically rare metals/rare earth, not resources in general.
My point about the landmass and ethnic minorities wasn`t the one that Russia claims about ethnic Russian speaking minorities, should have been clearer.

I was referring to the geography of far flung Russia, how the invasion is not a new thing in Russian history shown by the Tsarist regimes and Bolsheviks/later Communist regimes, how Russian insecurities about its ethnic minorities living in that big landmass contribute to its expansionism. The ethnic minorities refer here to people like the Chechen etc, in Russia itself, not neighbouring countries.
 
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I remember reading an interesting article about the `Orange Revolution` in Ukraine on www.opendemocracy.net back then. You can still find it online and I think it gives another angle to that event and others. The author was Sreeram Chaulia and it was written in 2006.

So an essay by an Indian professor with no proof what so ever of USA involment in the protests. However it even concedes the point that trigger for orange revolution was the disputed election.
None of the above machinations would have mattered without the disputed election result, the amassing of people power on the streets
Everything else is pure speculation and conjecture, with logical leaps all around. None of the quotes have any citations, might as well be made up. A professor at university should know better.
 
The more I read about that fiasco, the more I think it was a setup. Prior to the media meeting, Zelensky had been presented with an adapted deal, without any security guarantees. It was probably a matter of 'sign that or we'll maul you on live tv' (without necessarily explicitly saying that).
Agreed, most seem to feel this way.
 
Agreed, most seem to feel this way.
My gf (who knows nothing of whats going on, and was largely unbiased) watched a clip with me. First comment was, "why is zelensky acting like he's on drugs"(saying this just to show she is unbiased). And then she kept listening. When Vance started spouting bile, her opinion sharply turned around and frustratingly asked me "why is this f*ggot (implying he's gay) attacking him (zelensky)". When they started talking over Zelensky, she was visibly upset: "why are they so rude!?". Few more moments and she couldn't watch it anymore. Then she concluded it must be a setup.

So that's how she reacted. Initial dislike of Zelensky, to complete turn around. Most fun part for me was how she instinctively guessed Vance is gay. Apparently he "thought" he was gay and went on dates with other men.

That's your masculinity MAGA.
 
Russia`s invasion of the Ukraine is about its insecurity as a very big landmass with a number of ethnic minorities and has parallels with its Tsarist and Bolshevik history. Russia also decided to act against NATO and of course this is a resources war. However, I`m interested to know why so many ignore or actually don`t know about the so called `Colour Revolutions` in the Ukraine that were sponsored by the USA and its intelligence apparatus.

I don`t think it`s possible to get a better grasp of the power dynamics at work here without looking back to all that. As for Zelensky, I`d prefer countries with western liberal democratic systems hadn`t send billions and will keep sending billions at the request of a kleptocrat mentioned in the Pandora Papers.

I`m sure he`s not the only member of his govenrment who bought real estate worth millions in Israel and the US to name two countries, including for his parents. It seems that the money coming their way for the Ukraine`s defence has also benefited the Ukrainian government/authorities in ways not intended.

To put this all down to Trump being a `maniac` etc does not begin to address issues that have been around before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Can we have a separate thread to discuss stupid tankie conspiracy theories?
 
Can we have a separate thread to discuss stupid tankie conspiracy theories?
Make one if you like, other people are free to read as many different sources as they like on global events. Didn`t put the article on here, it`s for people to look up if they want. Free to read what you like and all that if you want to.
 
Make one if you like, other people are free to read as many different sources as they like on global events. Didn`t put the article on here, it`s for people to look up if they want. Free to read what you like and all that if you want to.
Ofcourse you don't actually put references to your sources here, as it's POS and doesn't meet basic scientific standards.

I mean the article quotes Zbigniew Brzezinski who worked for Jimmy Carter as national security advisor from 77-81. The idea that he has some authority on republican government of Dubya (when orange revolution happened) is ludicrous.