Bloomberg article on it:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I tend to agree. Seems to me the only prolonged, peaceful period of relative unity that Europe has experienced in its history has been the last eighty years under the American security umbrella (or thirty-five years if the Iron Curtain complicates things). With that withdrawn, it’s perhaps more likely that this diverse collection of stagnating economies with aging populations, whose histories are marked by often vicious conflict, will revert to form, with balance-of-power politics and all the intricacies it involves the main hope for stability.
That's also not the full picture. Yes, Ukraine doesn't really have rare earth elements deposits. But it does have other valuable mineral resources. So it's not completely wrong, it's just wrongly named.
Well its not going to be the US. I dont even think its feasible. What does security guarantee even mean? Are they going to deploy troops against the Russians? I doubt it. The best security guarantee they can hope for is funding and military support. Maybe in a few years they can join NATO
I beg your pardon? Until 1990 Europe was armed to the teeth and split in half, even Germany as a country was split. It was a period without hot wars (except on the Balkan), but the real period of unity only developed during the last 30 years, not 80. And these were the years when Europe didn't need a security umbrella because it wasn't threatened.
Perhaps but at some point European voters will ask how much longer that will continue and European politicians will campaign on that resentment. Even with the EU peacekeepers plan, again, at some point voters will ask when their troops will come back home.
Yes I noted that in an edit before you posted.
OK, so I just answered to fast
That reads as if other continents had been peaceful havens throughout history pre 1945.
I don’t really see how?
To me it reads as if histories of vicious conflicts are the european form as if that was somehow a common trait exclusive to them.
Not much I can say to that, I’m just not seeing what you are.
Dunno really. I don't believe either the US or EU countries want to be drawn into a hot war against Russia. No chance of Ukraine joining Nato without US support. On the topic of essentially giving away frozen Russian finiancial assests to Ukraine. Im too ignorant about international law when it comes to economics, but it sounds good in theory, but as far as i know its illegal and would cause a precedent that weaponize that way of doing business. I can't see it happening. Capitalism is here to stay and that money legally belongs to Russia. I dont think trying to break that system is going help much.
Weasel cnut Mark Rutte saying Zelensky should repair this.
Feck you Mark. You slimey grinning twat.
Feck you Mark. You slimey grinning twat.
The EU developed in absence of or/and in many parts against US wishes. Framing todays European states as if they were just one trumpian antic away from reverting to 1930s power balancing because that's just their nature is as simplistic as claiming a former colony "can't manage itself".
I don't see it anywhere in that post.
Don't beat about the bush....
I am not thinking in terms of “one Trumpian antic”. There are relevant long-terms trends at play here, both in the way American politics is developing and how European states are prepared to face certain mounting challenges. You are free to disagree with me that Europe is riven with tensions and faultlines with the potential to seriously undermine the prospect of European unity in the face of Russian manipulation and American indifference (to cite just two external challenges), and that many of these tensions and faultlines have roots in the long history of conflict in the continent. But you are wrong to interpret this understanding as some kind of indictment of a particularly European pathology. Such histories play into interstate relations in all regional political systems, although they are obviously not the only or even prime determinant of how things may play out when a major variable shifts (and I haven’t argued so).
There is no good deal for Ukraine. Trump hates Zelenskyy since 2019. He views him as part of the first impeachment.
The goal of what happened yesterday was to ambush Z. If he accepts a bad deal (with no guarantees), then so be it. It’s good for Russia, Trump gets the minerals and Z looks weak.
But, they knew that Z wouldn’t accept such deal. Then, they will bait him as they did, and they can now say: “he doesn’t want peace, he’s gambling with WWIII, he’s dangerous, doesn’t respect America, etc. No deal as long as he’s there.” Graham said yesterday that he may have to step aside.
Zelenskyy should now choose between selling Ukraine or resigning with the hope that Trump would treat his successor a bit better. If a deal is then reached, Trump would say “See? Once Zelenskyy is gone, it was easy to end the war. Zelenskyy was the problem, not Putin, etc.”
I hope so. However, Brexit caused a lot grievance on both sides
I really don't like Mark Rutte
Alright, I apologize, I apparently read something into that that wasn't there.
However I actually see European integration (of those states already in the EU, not necessarily any east of it) as a silver lining to all of this. No one in the EU sees anyone else inside it as a major threat to themselves anymore (in comparison to outside threats), and these external threats might well act as catalyst rather than as a divisive force. Even someone like PiS wouldn't feck around to the same degree in the current climate if they came to power again. Wilders won the most votes and couldn't get a government together... There hasn't been an easier argument for membership in at least 2 decades in any member country.
I believe it's also illegal to invade independent countries.
Thus, I would just tell Putin f* you. At least you are going to pay for parts of the weapons that will hold up your army.
Except for Russia and their minions nobody will believe this cheap charade.
America's name and reputation will be tarnished forever.
I’m happy Stoltenberg is back in the Norwegian government, but I sure do miss him at NATO…
And that is why I said that Trump will only have a lasting impact if he cements it after 2028 via being able somehow override its constitution and get a 3rd term of causing a global armed conflict that obviously would affect humanity with lasting effects. But if trump doesn't go beyond 2028, the next one, being D or R will wiggle its way to do business with europe with slight different reference frame
Obviously you an I are disagreeing, that is all. We don't have a crystal ball
Again. Many dictators and autocracies have decades of stability at some point of its duration. That doesn't mean that is what we should strive to relate with. Russia is pretty stable to be honest. Putin had been in power more than 20 years. Not like Ukraine that had been in conflicts for the last 15 with wars and coups. Yes, I am being facetious.
I agree with your first point that 2024 Trump is far worse and has come back with vengeance. And that is why europe has to put its raincoat, umbrella and protect itself for the next 4 years of Trump's shitstorm. If nothing outrageous happens with Trump that he can present himself a third term or directly he provokes a global conflict as an excuse to perpectuate himself as POTUS, both option can't be discarded IMO, I think after him, relationships EU-US will be somewhat ok
Agree with the minitrumps. I think they are more worrisome for EU unity as they can make EU implode from inside. Brexit is exactly that
Speaking of Norway. Gotta love you guys...
China gets whatever they need from Russia for cheap, giving them the technology they currently can't buy directly from the West.
Plus, if China is handling the security of Ukraine, they can just give Ukraine to Russia and keep all the minerals!
The EU will send an army to Ukraine, but only after a peace agreement is signed and the war is over.
If Putin breaks the agreement and invades again, the EU army will return home. Because the EU does not want WW3, and the EU army is for show only.
Unfortunately, that's the reality today, and it is not pretty. European leaders say a lot of great things. Doing? Not so much.
Good on them