Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Siorac said:
This is what all the pro-Russia comments always come down to, in the end. From @DT12 to @Suedesi, from Trump to Orbán, it's the same: they're telling everyone to give up on Ukraine and let Russia win. That's all there is to it. Every argument about how wonderful Russia's economy is, all the handwringing about the West and the feigned concern about Ukrainian casualties, each condescending remark amounts to the same thing: Russia should be allowed to win and do as they see fit with Ukraine.

Once Putin turns to the Baltic states, these people will be back with the exact same message.
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They also love responding to people saying "you know, I don't think Vladimir Putin can be trusted" with a five paragraph essay that begins "OH SO YOU'RE SAYING THE IRAQ INVASION WAS A GREAT IDEA AND YOU LOVE THE CIA????"
 
nimic said:
They also love responding to people saying "you know, I don't think Vladimir Putin can be trusted" with a five paragraph essay that begins "OH SO YOU'RE SAYING THE IRAQ INVASION WAS A GREAT IDEA AND YOU LOVE THE CIA????"
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Oh oh but the West can be trusted right, they've proven to be honest brokers, right!?

Siorac said:
This is what all the pro-Russia comments always come down to, in the end. From @DT12 to @Suedesi, from Trump to Orbán, it's the same: they're telling everyone to give up on Ukraine and let Russia win. That's all there is to it. Every argument about how wonderful Russia's economy is, all the handwringing about the West and the feigned concern about Ukrainian casualties, each condescending remark amounts to the same thing: Russia should be allowed to win and do as they see fit with Ukraine.

Once Putin turns to the Baltic states, these people will be back with the exact same message.
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Oh of course, NATO pushed Russia into attacking Baltic states by accepthing them into the fold. Their posts sound they're from one person who has 2 accounts.

I remember talking to a friend last year, he's pro Russian as you get, he was saying something like Trump didnt start any wars in the sense it was Biden who actually started the war in Ukraine.
 
nimic said:
They also love responding to people saying "you know, I don't think Vladimir Putin can be trusted" with a five paragraph essay that begins "OH SO YOU'RE SAYING THE IRAQ INVASION WAS A GREAT IDEA AND YOU LOVE THE CIA????"
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We're all Dick Cheney on this blessed day.
 
DT12 said:
If it's accepted that this war will end in negotiations with Putin then my question for Western leaders is: what exactly are you waiting for? For another 40,000 Ukrainian conscripts to die 'weakening' the Russian army for you a bit more, only to then have them agree to a peace arrangement they could have got now? For the military industrial complex to get a couple hundred more billion from the taxpayers? As I keep on asking: what on earth is the goal here? What is the strategy? Answer (per multiple Western diplomats) - there literally isn't one. They're making it up as they go along, 'led' by a total imbecile in Jake Sullivan.
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"Faced with the alternative of Ukrainian defeat and running these literally existential risks, it is essential — as we have argued in a recent paper for the Quincy Institute — that pressure for continued aid to Ukraine, and statements like those of Macron, be accompanied by a serious and credible push for a compromise peace with Russia now, while we still have leverage to bring to talks.

Complete victory for Ukraine is now an obvious impossibility. Any end to the fighting will therefore end in some form of compromise, and the longer we wait, the worse the terms of that compromise will be for Ukraine"

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/macron-nato-ukraine/

The authors of that article are the former CIA director of Russia analysis and the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute and professor of War Studies at King's College London (not quite Neville Chamberlain scholar MarvelFan2012's Twitter feed but still no geopolitical slouches). The gist of their argument is that for more than 2 years now Western leaders have polished their macho images at home by visiting and goading Zelenskiy to seek "total victory" with their 'help' (Macron in particular is looking to swoop in as a late-game tough guy in order to boost his piss-poor polling numbers ahead of June's European elections; this despite having done the least of any major leader for the last 26 months), with the result that Ukraine has now become a Nato mercenary for Western generals wanting to boost their budgets. They believe peace talks are needed now while Ukraine still has a modicum of leverage to bring to them.
 
Suedesi said:
Oh, absolutely, because Western leaders are the epitome of 'honest brokers,' aren't they? They spun a web of lies to drag us into the Iraq war. Add to that a 20-year military holiday in Afghanistan, some sneaky business in Syria, and a bit of meddling in Libya.
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Whataboutism at its finest.

Funny thing is, 20 years ago the only political leader that was already in power (and therefore personally accountable) was Putin.
 
Suedesi and DT12 really sound like those 50-Cent Army (Wumao) trolls who have pushed Chinese propaganda over the last decade. Go figure if they are actually paid 50 cents per hour to write their pro-Kremlin bullshit.
 
Suedesi said:
Oh, absolutely, because Western leaders are the epitome of 'honest brokers,' aren't they? They spun a web of lies to drag us into the Iraq war. Add to that a 20-year military holiday in Afghanistan, some sneaky business in Syria, and a bit of meddling in Libya. The results? A whole lot of death, chaos, and enough displaced people to spark a worldwide refugee crisis. If anyone's been through all that and still takes the foreign policy bigwigs at their word, they've definitely missed a memo or two!

What the war in Ukraine has really laid bare is how much we've let our production capabilities and defense industrial base erode. It's like we've been caught with our pants down. At the war's start, we were churning out 15,000 artillery shells a month. Two years down the line? We've only managed to nudge that number up to 29,000. Meanwhile, the Russians are outproducing us by 10 times. It's a bit of a joke, honestly. Making a shell costs us a whopping $5,000 to $6,000 each, but the Russians can do it for less than $400.

Remember when all the big news outlets were yelling about how Russia was just a bunch of corrupt officials running a shell of a military? Turns out, we're the ones burning money 10 times faster than they are. Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

And then there's all this talk about sending more aid to Ukraine to 'weaken Russia.' But from where I'm standing, it looks like every move we've made has only beefed up the Red Army. They're cranking out military gear like nobody's business, becoming tougher against sanctions, and looking more ready to throw down than they were two years ago. Biden's big talk at the start? It's all boomeranged. He was all about diminishing Russian strength and preventing their war-waging capabilities. On the contrary, Russia now boasts a larger, more weaponized, and battle-hardened military, especially adept at countering Western armaments.

Economically, too, Biden's promise to crush Russia with sanctions has turned into a bit of a punchline. Their economy's outpacing the G7, while our friends in Europe are taking the hit. Talk about a plan backfiring.

And don't get me started on the humanitarian side. Biden said we'd ease the Ukrainians' suffering. Instead, we've dug them into a deeper hole with this proxy war and our 'fight to the last Ukrainian' stance (to quote Lindsay and Mitch). It's led to a disaster: over 10 million people, mostly women and kids, have fled the country. Half a million casualties. And with a chunk of the population being non-working pensioners, we're staring at the demographic collapse of Ukraine.

So, when you take a step back and look at it all, it's been a disaster. Yet, you can bet the media will keep on weaving stories about how more aid, some shiny new weapons, or a fresh counteroffensive is going to turn things around. Always another glittering story to keep us hooked.
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Did you see those RC planes attacking Russian refineries? Perhaps worth taking a look at for anybody taking Russian claims concerning production and capabilities seriously.
 
Krakenzero said:
Whataboutism at its finest.

Funny thing is, 20 years ago the only political leader that was already in power (and therefore personally accountable) was Putin.
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Also, I believe that is literally a Kremlin talking point that is rapidly deployed whenever someone criticizes Putin.
 
France and Macron going nuclear (literally) right now, finally the penny dropped. Hopefully, we can steer Germany to the good side of the history as well.



 
Suedesi said:
Oh, absolutely, because Western leaders are the epitome of 'honest brokers,' aren't they? They spun a web of lies to drag us into the Iraq war. Add to that a 20-year military holiday in Afghanistan, some sneaky business in Syria, and a bit of meddling in Libya. The results? A whole lot of death, chaos, and enough displaced people to spark a worldwide refugee crisis. If anyone's been through all that and still takes the foreign policy bigwigs at their word, they've definitely missed a memo or two!

What the war in Ukraine has really laid bare is how much we've let our production capabilities and defense industrial base erode. It's like we've been caught with our pants down. At the war's start, we were churning out 15,000 artillery shells a month. Two years down the line? We've only managed to nudge that number up to 29,000. Meanwhile, the Russians are outproducing us by 10 times. It's a bit of a joke, honestly. Making a shell costs us a whopping $5,000 to $6,000 each, but the Russians can do it for less than $400.

Remember when all the big news outlets were yelling about how Russia was just a bunch of corrupt officials running a shell of a military? Turns out, we're the ones burning money 10 times faster than they are. Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

And then there's all this talk about sending more aid to Ukraine to 'weaken Russia.' But from where I'm standing, it looks like every move we've made has only beefed up the Red Army. They're cranking out military gear like nobody's business, becoming tougher against sanctions, and looking more ready to throw down than they were two years ago. Biden's big talk at the start? It's all boomeranged. He was all about diminishing Russian strength and preventing their war-waging capabilities. On the contrary, Russia now boasts a larger, more weaponized, and battle-hardened military, especially adept at countering Western armaments.

Economically, too, Biden's promise to crush Russia with sanctions has turned into a bit of a punchline. Their economy's outpacing the G7, while our friends in Europe are taking the hit. Talk about a plan backfiring.

And don't get me started on the humanitarian side. Biden said we'd ease the Ukrainians' suffering. Instead, we've dug them into a deeper hole with this proxy war and our 'fight to the last Ukrainian' stance (to quote Lindsay and Mitch). It's led to a disaster: over 10 million people, mostly women and kids, have fled the country. Half a million casualties. And with a chunk of the population being non-working pensioners, we're staring at the demographic collapse of Ukraine.

So, when you take a step back and look at it all, it's been a disaster. Yet, you can bet the media will keep on weaving stories about how more aid, some shiny new weapons, or a fresh counteroffensive is going to turn things around. Always another glittering story to keep us hooked.
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  • As far as I can tell, on the issue of artillery shells, it should be noted that Western militaries aren't as focused on artillery as Ukraine and Russia. So this was always gonna be a headache problem in terms of artillery shell production. From my reading, European nations aren't committing yet to mass production. It's slowly scaling up (Rheinmetall for example) but defense companies are still saying they need assurances on long-term contracts.
  • Russia is toughening itself against sanctions indeed and this has been noted by many folks. But there's a flipside to the coin: the West hasn't reached its limits yet. It's not completely all in on sanctions for whatever reasons (domestic agenda etc).
  • This "fight to the last Ukrainian" stuff is really cringe whoever says it. Ukrainians were going to fight anyway, they're the ones under attack and they've chosen to resist. And they aren't unique in this, human history is full of people fighting back against aggression. Without mass Western military aid, they likely would have still fought although resorting more to guerrilla warfare. You're framing it as if we are forcing Ukraine to fight.
  • A disaster would have been leaving Ukraine to its demise. Instead, they have used Western intelligence + weapons to defend themselves and push the Russians back.
  • Don't give the Russians too much credit. They had to do deals with Iran and North Korea for drones, missiles, artillery shells and so on.

That doesn't mean all is positive of course.
  • Western politicians are still often spouting empty rhetoric or posturing for domestic elections.
  • Aid had been drying up since the 2023 summer counter-offensive.
  • Ukraine itself has to make tough decisions on mobilization and how to continue the fight.
  • Western governments seemingly don't feel the urgency to crack down harder on sanctions evasion or impose harsher sanctions.
 
Rajma said:
France and Macron going nuclear (literally) right now, finally the penny dropped. Hopefully, we can steer Germany to the good side of the history as well.



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Something has certainly happened, of course we never really know what's really going on in the world of intelligence.

Le Pen on board too though... What?
 
Finally we have a proper coalition in Europe (France/UK/Poland/Czech/ Romania/Nordics/Baltics).
 
Meh, I'd be wary of exaggerating Macron's rhetoric. Here's the usual "but now is not the moment" disclaimer.

PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated Thursday his position that sending Western troops into Ukraine should not be ruled out, but said that today’s situation doesn’t require that.

“We’re not in that situation today,” he said, but added that “all these options are possible.”
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https://apnews.com/article/france-macron-ukraine-troops-caa788d2455dafb06dd87f79c4afe06f
 
VorZakone said:
Meh, I'd be wary of exaggerating Macron's rhetoric. Here's the usual "but now is not the moment" disclaimer.


https://apnews.com/article/france-macron-ukraine-troops-caa788d2455dafb06dd87f79c4afe06f
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I agree, nobody should expect to see European troops in Ukraine anytime soon, it ain't happening. It is still an important change in rhetoric though and shows at least one EU leader is taking the situation as seriously as it should be, hopefully that influence spreads.
 
Rajma said:
Finally we have a proper coalition in Europe (France/UK/Poland/Czech/ Romania/Nordics/Baltics).
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If that carries on, it would be the largest pan-European coalition to make a stand against one single enemy since the Seventh Coalition fought against Napoleon in 1815.
 
Simbo said:
I agree, nobody should expect to see European troops in Ukraine anytime soon, it ain't happening. It is still an important change in rhetoric though and shows at least one EU leader is taking the situation as seriously as it should be, hopefully that influence spreads.
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France could spread the rhetoric sending more arms to Ukraine at the same level as Germany or UK. They are far behind compared to the other 2 strongest economies in Europe
 
4bars said:
France could spread the rhetoric sending more arms to Ukraine at the same level as Germany or UK. They are far behind compared to the other 2 strongest economies in Europe
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Yeah, one would hope that's what it leads to.
 
Rajma said:
France and Macron going nuclear (literally) right now, finally the penny dropped. Hopefully, we can steer Germany to the good side of the history as well.
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Doubt Germany will follow route. Scholz is a spineless coward.

Anyway this change in rhetoric comes 2 years and a few months too late.

The moment Russia invaded Ukraine it was too late.
The West should have made clear to Putin, if he invades Ukraine, the West will immediately establish a non flight zone and nothing is off limits.
Instead Biden and other Western leaders made public statements saying there won't be any NATO soldiers involved in the war. This was like a free pass to Putin to go forward with the invasion.
 
Real Name said:
Should I check the state of my building's atomic shelter?
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After yesterday’s Macron’s performance I would say that risk has greatly diminished. The only way anyone uses nuclear is when you know that you can get away with it.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure what's going on. There appears to be a Twitter campaign about French troops going to Romania for eventual use in Odesa.
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Quite liking that response, its a bit dumb, but dumb questions should always be met in kind.
 
I fear this spring summer we might see a russian offensive more than the other way around
 
4bars said:
I fear this spring summer we might see a russian offensive more than the other way around
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That's the expectation, yes. Many articles suggest that 2024 will be a rebuilding year for Ukraine so that they can launch a new offensive in 2025.
 
Not entirely sure on the implications here. If there's a spill, the insurance company won't pay? So who will pay for the environmental cleanup?

 
:lol: :lol: :lol:



Sure, try to run over a trench with a tank. I have a lot of success myself doing that while I'm playing Enlisted or War Thunder... not.
 
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