Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I'm really sceptical of claims like this one in the article. Ukrainian soldiers have regularly described how they are the ones outgunned by Russian heavy equipment.
They would have far more losses too and probably would have to stop the operations sooner than they expect.
As much as it makes us uncomfortable with the progress and gives the RA troops time to prepare, at this point, it is best to go with small groups now. The UA has to keep their reserve not for a counterattack of their own but for the RA's offensive operations in the North East and, of course, the god-forsaken Bakhmut city.
I don't see how they can increase their progress with the current operation methods for awhile unless they can cross the Dnipro river with a substantial amount of force.
Can we expect more riots and self-injuries now?
As for tweets being posted since yesterday on this whole forum, I see next to feck all except the link.
It wouldn't surprise me, if the second mobilization wave is already under way secretly. It's almost one year after the last one and looking at their daily losses, they sure as hell running on fumes or continuously replenish their troops.
I don't know anything about warfare, so I am asking the experts of the thread out of curiosity. Are the images around 1:33 the result of the latest artillery cluster munition provided by the US instead of GMLRS? I am saying for the multiple impacts around the russian equipement
NATO official: Ukraine could give up territory in return for membership
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-12541713?postid=6292518#liveblog-body
Imagine being a spy chief and coming out with shit like this to protect your ass, I guess?
Meanwhile there seems to be some movement on the front. Apparently some Ukrainian vehicles have been seen south of Robotyne (which is a few km further south than so far known).
Also - and this is probably more interesting - there are now videos floating around about Russian S-300 systems destroyed by HIMARS in that area - and filmed by small Ukrainian drones.
That means that the Russians are positiong their long range air defense quite close to the front. Which is something you shouldn't do, as it is not very mobile or protected. The only reason to move these into artillery range is if you have nothing else left - so it is not only a severe loss itself, but could also indicate a lack of Tor/Buk-systems on the Russian side. This in turn means that it soon might be possible to have more close air support for Ukraine.
These news are accompanied by first sightings of Ukraines 82nd airborne brigade - which means Marder IFV and Challenger MBT appearing at the frontlines.
Also - and this is probably more interesting - there are now videos floating around about Russian S-300 systems destroyed by HIMARS in that area - and filmed by small Ukrainian drones.
That means that the Russians are positiong their long range air defense quite close to the front. Which is something you shouldn't do, as it is not very mobile or protected. The only reason to move these into artillery range is if you have nothing else left - so it is not only a severe loss itself, but could also indicate a lack of Tor/Buk-systems on the Russian side. This in turn means that it soon might be possible to have more close air support for Ukraine.
These news are accompanied by first sightings of Ukraines 82nd airborne brigade - which means Marder IFV and Challenger MBT appearing at the frontlines.
There seems to be slow but steady progress slightly east of there, where they have just liberated Urozhayne + the line you are mentioning which means they are nearly on the outskirts of Tokmak. I guess we don't know what is true but the Ukraine youtube channels seem quite positive, talk of Russia having too few tanks now to cover the whole front line (apparently no mechanised divisions at all left across the river from Kherson as they've all moved reinforce to the east), starting to see S-300's in weird places and older tanks that haven't been seen before, I think for the first time they are attacking a small part of the main Russian defensive line.
Still seems unlikely we'll see a major breakthrough though.
Russia lost 2 Ka-52 in one day. That's the way forward, exhaust their forces.
Came in here to post exactly this.
https://t.me/supernova_plus/22901
Reportedly this shows a 2S22 Bohdana being transported across the Dnipro (or at least to an island in the middle of it.
If true this confirms rumuors that in the last days Ukraine began to transport heavy equipment across the Dnipro which means that they soon would be able to perform mechanized attacks on the left bank.
Essentially Russia failed to properly leverage the biggest natural line of defense they have.
Reportedly this shows a 2S22 Bohdana being transported across the Dnipro (or at least to an island in the middle of it.
If true this confirms rumuors that in the last days Ukraine began to transport heavy equipment across the Dnipro which means that they soon would be able to perform mechanized attacks on the left bank.
Essentially Russia failed to properly leverage the biggest natural line of defense they have.
Russia: Sanctions against us have failed
Also Russia: We forbid our companies the free trade, so the ruble will not reach Zimbabwean dollar.
Everybody knows that as soon as the state starts to regulate the free trade, prosperity returns
Also Russia: We forbid our companies the free trade, so the ruble will not reach Zimbabwean dollar.
Everybody knows that as soon as the state starts to regulate the free trade, prosperity returns
Bit strange to move artillery right up to the front line.
It's interesting, I guess either there's something they think is worth the risk that would be in range from that move (I think the standard range is about 22km) or the front line has shifted more than current media reports are up-to-date with.
That's the point, if these rumours are true the following things would be likely true as well:
- Russia can not (accurately) attack the Dnipro islands with artillery to destroy the Ukrainian artillery there
- Ukraine feels quite comfortable that they can hold their bridgehead on the left bank
- Ukraine prepares for expanding their bridgehead, essentially saying the the river isn't the front line any more in that area.
Much more than 22km. The 2S22 is essentially Ukraine's "NATO howitzer" - a 155mm/L52 cannon like most modern NATO systems. That means up to 42km with base bleed munition, some very special munition even more (50km range for the Vulcano munition that has been delivered by Germany). The cheap standard ammo should reach about 30km
Another interesting point about deliveries to Ukraine: This week Germany confirmed delivery of the first IRIS-T SLS launchers to Ukraine. We discussed this on here before, the difference to the existing IRIS-T SLM is that that uses the default IRIS-T missile, not the enlarged version. That means it has a shorter range, but also that there is no shortage of ammunition, as IRIS-T is the Eurofighter short-range air-to-air missile and therefore exists in huge numbers in Europe.
Interesting, I just googled to see the average US range (which said 22k) but if 42k+ is correct they might be able to hit some of the main defensive lines from the islands/bank. Depends obviously on where exactly that island is.
I don't know the area at all but it looks wrong to me. Why are they going down the river? Normally you would get across as quickly as possible and manoeuvre from there. And why are the troops looking so relaxed considering where they are? They should be much more alert.
Yeah, US artillery is simply inferior as they use shorter barrels, resulting in less acceleration of projectiles and therefore shorter range. Bot the M777 and the M109 have barrels of 39 caliber lengths (155mm/L39 in short notation), while 2S22, PzH2000, CAESAR, ARCHER all use 155mm/L52 barrels.
Yes, that's why I always write "if" in front of my posts about this...
There are multiple islands in that area, and it is possible that they are navigating through them in that video, so maybe they are going just around something there. The point about looking relaxed is very interesting indeed as if they don't seem to have to be alert than that likely means that this is a pretty safe area. Which does fit well with transporting artillery there, as you likely would not risk moving unarmoured artillery into an area were you have to be alert for such things.
I wouldn't overrate this video as long as there is not more info or footage of armor crossing the Dnipro. It could also be a propaganda clip to confuse the russians and force them to keep a considerable force in the Kherson region.
They prefer to keep the guns light and maneuverable. They do have 40km+ range guided shells and they're building a 58 calibre gun but the main aim of that is the keep the weight the same. It makes sense when they have so many missiles and rockets that can do the same job.
And don't forget the US emphasis of their Air Force, that also diminishes their need for artillery.
Gen. Gannady Zhidko, former commander of the Russian forces invading Ukraine, has died.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/17/europe/russian-general-gennady-zhidko-death-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/17/europe/russian-general-gennady-zhidko-death-intl/index.html