I wonder how much in the way of resources Vlad has available to deal with internal problems when most are already allocated and stretched thin on the frontlines in Ukraine.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I wonder how much in the way of resources Vlad has available to deal with internal problems when most are already allocated and stretched thin on the frontlines in Ukraine.
What's the alternative ? A false flag operation ?
The harsh realities of war (viewer discretion advised)
Yes, it is not likely they will arest Putin, but I wouldn't mind a power struggle (or even a civil war) in Russia. Actually, I think it is the best possible outcome for Russia, it is probably the only way they could get rid of the Putin mafia (because it is not just Putin).
About the nukes, I'm more worried about Putin himself using nukes against Ukraine, than any other fraction. Because how would it help a fraction during an internal struggle to use nuclear weapons? And they will use nukes against whom? During an internal struggle (or civil war) people are focused on the immediate enemy that is closer to them, external enemies take the back seat. I am more worried that Putin will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if he is certain he will lose the war.
Its actually in everyone's best interest that excepting a proper revolution where people are clearly doing it because they want to go democratic, that Putin remains in power, because we just don't know who will replace him and the ensuing power struggle could wind up turning into a much more dangerous regional war. As of now, its confined to one or two countries, which is far preferable to the alternative of an unstable, leaderless Russia with nukes.
There are probably millions of Ukrainians in Russia who are both Russians and Ukrainians. It is not strange if some of them organized against Putin and the genocide he is trying to cause in Ukraine. And there are also some Russians who really hate Putin and the war. We don't hear much about them, because if they talk they will end up in prison. But I am sure they exist.
I don't agree with this. As long as Putin remains in power, nothing can improve in Russia. As I said, it is not just him, it is a whole mafia system (police and prisons) behind him. I am not worried about the person who succeeds him, because that person will not have as much power as Putin. Putin had 20 years, during which he killed or jailed all his major enemies. The new leader will not have this luxury.
Poor health excepting, Putin is going to be around for some time yet.
All he has to do is to hold on to the Ukrainian territory that has been won by Russia so far and he can claim the victory he promised.
He can't as long as Russia is under attack. He would need to fortify his own border massively to prevent such attacks from happening again.
No one said Putin should stay in power at all costs, just that he provides a "the devil you know v the devil you don't know" type stability in that the west are well aware what we're dealing with when assessing the current guy. A leadership vacuum in a totalitarian Russia is a whole another matter.
What would a leaderless Russia do with those nukes in that alternative? I hope this is not about one or more factions selling nukes on the black market.
I think the stability argument has gone out of the window since February 2022. Prior to then, he was a bastard but maybe one you could do business with in a realpolitik sense. Having gambled recklessly in launching the most destructive war in Europe since 1945, I don’t see that the “better the devil you know” still holds water.
Not necessarily the black market, but for example, what if someone like Progozhin, Kadyrov, or similar managed to seize power. That's definitely a worse predicament than a lame duck Putin who is bleeding the nation dry of resources in slow motion.
Are you suggesting that you believe that NATO nations might attack Russia?
He doesn't need to do anything to fortify his borders.
The threat of nuclear weapons does that for him.
There's an argument to be made that he's more stable and rational today than when he rather irrationally invaded 15 months ago. In either case, he is a rational actor (as per rational choice theory), and one that the west has had a personal relationship with for the past quarter century, so I'm pretty sure they would rather deal with a weakened Putin than a maniac neanderthal like Kadyrov or the like.
Responding to your earlier post, I don’t see any upside in dealing with Putin on the grounds that the alternative might be worse. Short of. nuclear war, it’s hard to imagine what could be worse. In a similar vein, Yeltsin played the West like a fiddle in that respect while the nascent democratic state rotted.
There are two organizations: Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps. Both are real, both are primarily Russians.
FRL are defectors from the Russian army, former Russian PoWs, and some volunteers. I'm not aware of any ideology except opposing Putin and/or the war. RVC are nazis and other far-right flavours, a bunch of them are former Azov fighters. Russian emmigrants.
Worse, here, could simply be a dumb barbarian like Kadyrov - or else Patrushev or Prigozhin. People comparably bad to Putin but without Putin's political instincts to where they would wildly miscalculate by using WMDs.
Genuine question. More than yeltsin playing the west like a fiddle, wasnt more like a US drunk puppet where US poored billions to have influence over russia till pytin came?
I wish the Nazis would stop involving themselves in maybe good things.
My honest answer is that I don’t know. However, in the 1996 elections, Yeltsin‘s team did play heavily on the theme of give us money or the communists will get back in. I’m not sure Yeltsin was a puppet - he faced an incredibly difficult task and made a mess of It. Putin enjoyed extremely favourable circumstances (sky high commodity prices) and has turned the country into a pariah and Chinese dependecy.
No, but as long as there is no real peace between Ukraine and Russia situations like today/yesterday can happen again (I'm talking about the Russian invasion of Russia, with Ukrainian support)
In my opinion, the timing couldn't be better right now for the counteroffensive for several reasons:
• Wagner's strength is depleted and they withdraw in the coming days to replenish their ranks according to Prigozhin.
• The weather should be dry enough for the heavy armor now
• Russia's military leadership is in dispute. Prigozhin insulted the Russian MoD and especially Gerasimov and Shoigu several times. This undermines their authority and is an embarrassment.
• Even Russian propagandists start fearing western weapon deliveries. F-16 is on the table. The mood on their talk shows is the worst since start the of the war.
• Russian MoD is distracted by inner disputes and saboteur actions.
• The morale of the Russian army is still very low. As soon as Ukraine started to push on Bakhmut's flanks, they started to run again.
And those are only the obvious reasons after 3 minutes of thinking. I'm sure you can find more.
• Wagner's strength is depleted and they withdraw in the coming days to replenish their ranks according to Prigozhin.
• The weather should be dry enough for the heavy armor now
• Russia's military leadership is in dispute. Prigozhin insulted the Russian MoD and especially Gerasimov and Shoigu several times. This undermines their authority and is an embarrassment.
• Even Russian propagandists start fearing western weapon deliveries. F-16 is on the table. The mood on their talk shows is the worst since start the of the war.
• Russian MoD is distracted by inner disputes and saboteur actions.
• The morale of the Russian army is still very low. As soon as Ukraine started to push on Bakhmut's flanks, they started to run again.
And those are only the obvious reasons after 3 minutes of thinking. I'm sure you can find more.
This will be of some interest to @WPMUFC since the fascists have decided to show up in Sydney.
Embarrassing sight, that.
Embarrassing sight, that.
I think only Patrushev from them might have a realistic chance. Aren’t the other two essentially Putin’s mad dogs, so with Putin gone, they won’t have much power. Everyone dislikes Kadyrov and he isn’t even Russian (I mean officially he is, but Russians do not really accept minorities as Russians), so feck all chance for him to get power in Russia.
Patrushev would obviously be continuing in the same way.
Agree with your main point though. If Putin falls, all bets might be off. We can see Russia getting Democratic, or Russia continuing in the same way. If the later, it might be worse than with Putin cause the new leader might be much more inexperienced and thus do many more miscalculations (unlike Putin who essentially has done just one miscalculation).
Putin is a coward and cares nothing about anything but himself. So he has a fair amount of self-preservation. It could become even worse if some fecking idiot who truly and wholeheartedly believes in the current Russian propaganda takes over.
Another funny
I see a huge irony in this tweet.
This will be of some interest to @WPMUFC since the fascists have decided to show up in Sydney.
Embarrassing sight, that.
I see a huge irony in this tweet.
This will be of some interest to @WPMUFC since the fascists have decided to show up in Sydney.
Embarrassing sight, that.
Yeah we are getting fascists turning up at anti-trans rallies and a conservative MP from Victoria was just expelled from the Conservative Party for taking part in the anti-trans rally which was attended by neo-nazi's like this lot. I don't want to take the thread off topic, but i'll end with the news today that our national spy agency has reported a significant increase in this kind of neo-nazi, fascist feckery. So hopefully we stay ahead of it.
They're speaking about 'getting back their land' far away from the war, in the safety of Australia. If they were in Russia they'd probably all be dead right now or most of them cause they'd be conscripted.
So, if Ukraine belongs to Russia, due to some ancient map where Ukraine didn't exist, isn't a good portion of Russia just part of the Mongolian Empire, and should be handed back to their "historical" owners?
Edit : The map didn't even show what Putin said it did, apparently, he is not well.
Edit : The map didn't even show what Putin said it did, apparently, he is not well.
Last edited:
Can we Germans get Königsberg back?
And by the way, uf we start talking about ancient stuff, the origin of Russia is the Kyivan Rus. So in that sense shouldn't Russia be handed back to Kyiv's control? (This is part of the ideological reason why Ukraine must be part of Russia, it is actually it's place of origin. On the other hand England isn't part of the US, which is a comparable situation)
This will be of some interest to @WPMUFC since the fascists have decided to show up in Sydney.
Embarrassing sight, that.
Wasn't there a pro-Putin biker rally or something like that in Oz recently ?
They were Swedes, so...
Let's not forget Finland's claim on Karelia
And we want Brazil back, just for a few years so we can finally get a wc.