Ukraine might have been easy to take in 2014, e.g. see Crimea and Donbas, but now it will be much tougher. Russia of course have the superior forces and equipment, but that’s not always enough.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Anyone know what the story is with business and daily life in Kiev right now, just normal? When Russia rolled into Crimea, did they nationalise any private business in the region?
Surprise them on the battlefield and use that intelligence to inflict heavy casualties by being (militarily) prepared for these advances?
I hope this is bullshit.
As much as I'm on Ukraine's side, any NATO intervention would surely risk a global catastrophe.
And this is why I'm wondering why not use that info militarily since Ukraine has a good chance to muster fierce resistance now. Ukraine's best chances is their military holding on and inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian army (especially after the first strike) which will slow down their advance and lowers the public's approval for this operation inside Russia. Once Russia controls an area inside East Ukraine I don't think Ukraine will have much chance regaining it or organizing any kind of resistance inside it.
Unless, like somebody mentioned, all of this info is just bs to begin with.
@VorZakone - Regarding the tweet about NATO covering Ukrainian airspace, I can't find any other source that Kuleba has made that request, not in Western or Eastern media or anywhere else on Twitter. Most of the replies in Ukrainian are asking for a source and thus far none has been provided. So fortunately it appears to just be Twitter horsecrap 
Edit: Or maybe a misinterpratation.
@Water Melon makes a good point, we could be assisting them with radar coverage.
If anybody can find anything else on it, do feel free to prove me wrong.
Edit: Or maybe a misinterpratation.@Water Melon makes a good point, we could be assisting them with radar coverage.
If anybody can find anything else on it, do feel free to prove me wrong.
@VorZakone - Regarding the tweet about NATO covering Ukrainian airspace, I can't find any other source that Kuleba has made that request, not in Western or Eastern media or anywhere else on Twitter. Most of the replies in Ukrainian are asking for a source and thus far none has been provided. So fortunately it appears to just be Twitter horsecrap
@Water Melon makes a good point, we could be assisting them with radar coverage.
If anybody can find anything else on it, do feel free to prove me wrong.
There are currently NATO ( US, UK, NE ) flights patrolling Ukrainian skies (RC-135, AWACS, and Global Hawk drones). They would obviously leave once the Russians launch their full on invasion.
Would they Raoul? I've been watching the air movements. Could they just turn off their transponders?
I would not be surprised if there is a nato plane shot down at some point soon.
Worrying times though.
Thanks, so as hinted earlier in the thread, no combat craft and no intention of a 'no fly zone' that some of the replies in that Tweet were dreaming of.
At this stage, a NATO no fly zone over Ukraine would be front page world news! Just not going to happen.
A KC-135 is a large mid-air refueling tanker, it will show up on radar regardless of 'transponder'.
These aren't stealth aircraft.
They would have to as getting attacked, whether accidentally, inadvertently, or intentionally, could result in a triggering of article 5.
Are the tankers over Ukraine? I've seen the global hawks and rivet joints over there but not the tankers I don't think.
I've looked at the Russian side and not seen any military aircraft, are they all very low altitude or just turning transponders off?
Sorry my mistake. Raoul said RC-135 (not KC)
This is the same aircraft, I believe, but not in tanker configuration. Regardless, it would need to leave Ukrainian airspace during a Russian invasion.
Thanks, yes I understand your point
In that scenario Russia is already invading Ukraine, and they're going to be conquered. They're no doubt hoping to avoid it altogether, because they can't win.
Would it though automatically? Considering it's not on the soil of a NATO nation? We have examples of Turkey's forces being attacked in Syria or the attack on the US base in Iraq or the drone in the Persian Gulf which didn't lead necessarily to triggering article 5. And of course the infamous incident when Turkey downed a Russian plane and NATO refused to back them up in the event of a Russian attack. So I'm not sure one NATO nation leaving forces in Ukraine deliberately so they can be attacked by Russia really fulfills the essence of article 5 automatically, otherwise might as well count Ukraine as a NATO member already then.
That's exactly the vibe I'm getting, I don't think they expect Ukraine to last long anyway despite all this talk about Ukraine having a vastly improved army now. Don't forget, a few months ago we also heard a lot about how the US built a good army in Afghanistan which can show real resistance against Taliban when US leaves, only to discover the next day what they secretly knew all along.
I can't help but think that the Afghanistan debacle really damaged international US credibility. Not the fact that they withdrew, but how they did it. The chaos, the pretty much instant collapse of the Afghan military etc. I wonder how the Russians perceived that display.
Russia has so many natural resources, sometimes one wonders what their economic potential is. The oligarchs have completely hijacked the Russian economy.
There have been reports of Russian aircrafts flying into Ukrainian airspace today. This is done to light up the Ukrainian air defense radars so they can be detected and engaded in the next stage of the operation.
Sad state but expected
Just waiting now for FloridaMan to pop by and ask when the invasion was happening, but doubt we will see that.
I'm sure he'll pop in as soon as the Jimmy Dore podcast finishes.
Putin is very likely to go all the way to Kyiv to replace the government. It does look like dark times are ahead for Ukraine. What matters from now on is sanctions. Disconnecting the aggresor from swift, using the money from oligarchs accounts in Europe to provide arms to the Ukranian government will hopefully make the war too costly for Putin to continue. Unfortunately, these sanctions won't happen and Putin is very likely to get away with this.
I'd imagine every possible sanction is on the table at this point.
These were definitely ugly scenes. And the pictures of the people who worked with the US hanging and falling from the wings of the plane...
I would bloody hope so, Raoul. A slap on the wrist will not be enough this time around. The aggressor will have to suffer financially and basically run out of resources to sustain war, oligarchs and "rebuild" occupied territories.
I dont see Ukranian defence lasting too long. Russia's force seem overwhelming.