Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Russia recalls 30 of their T-34 tanks from Laos and hypes them up on TV:

Well if you needed any more evidence that they’re beginning to run out of the working scrap metal, look no further.
 
RedSky said:
There is no chance in hell that Russia would open a 2nd Front and Finland are well equipped to cope if that did happen. They've got a small military but a very large well trained reserve army to rely on. They are a nation that learnt from the previous time Russia invaded them and have been preparing for that eventuality since.
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Thats how sane people think, but Putin isn't sane, and Russia isn't a sane nation, so who knows.
It would be an absolute disaster for Russia to try, of course.
 
Rajma said:
Russia recalls 30 of their T-34 tanks from Laos and hypes them up on TV:

Well if you needed any more evidence that they’re beginning to run out of the working scrap metal, look no further.
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So crazy to see those pieces of museum taken towards a war in 2023. That is before reminding people that the battle-hardened T-34/85s were already outperformed in battle by the ever-so maligned Shermans and battle-untested Pershings during the Korean War.
 
RedSky said:
There is no chance in hell that Russia would open a 2nd Front and Finland are well equipped to cope if that did happen.
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12 months ago a lot of people where saying the same about a Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine.

RedSky said:
They are a nation that learnt from the previous time Russia invaded them and have been preparing for that eventuality since.
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This is the main reason why our goverment is so reluctant to give to many away, history has taught us that we need to be prepared. They know that the tanks might be needed, especially since the open door policy of NATO seems to be not so fully open.

I personally think it should be possible to give more than a few, which is what has been suggested here. We have in total 100 2A6s and somewhere between 80-90 of the older 2A4s. The 2A6 version is probably seen as to important to give any away but when it comes to the 2A4s they will most likely need to be replaced within the next 10-15 years anyway so if a contract for replacements could be secured with deliveries within the next 2-3 years I think a large part of the 2A4s should be available.
The problem is that it won't be easy to buy new tanks in the coming years. Production capacity is almost non existent for most manufaturers and the demand will go through the roof when all the tanks going to Ukraine will need to be replaced.
 
Portuguese defense ministry said a couple of hours ago there's no decision regarding sending tanks to ukraine.
 
the hea said:
12 months ago a lot of people where saying the same about a Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine.
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True, but that doesn't make it a valid counter-argument in any situation. Finland is in the EU, and is currently in the process of joining NATO. It also has a very solid defensive military. There is also no conceivable pro-Russian part of the population, like the one Russia imagined would prop up a potential Ukrainian puppet state (though it seems Russia greatly over-estimated the depths of their pro-Russia sentiments). All of those things would make it unthinkable for Russia to contemplate invading, and that's before we take into account that they're already slogging it out in Ukraine.
 
Carolina Red said:
73 Easting was fought in between a driving rain storm, heavy fog, and a sand storm. Air power wasn’t a factor.
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It was in the middle of a flat desert though, kind of hard to hide infantrymen with anti-tank missiles in that environment. With that said as long as Ukraine can deploy recon drones with infantry supporting the tanks, they can get by without traditional air superiority. I do think though that having air superiority leads to a lot of the lopsided open-field victories that the US can rack up.
 
nimic said:
True, but that doesn't make it a valid counter-argument in any situation. Finland is in the EU, and is currently in the process of joining NATO. It also has a very solid defensive military. There is also no conceivable pro-Russian part of the population, like the one Russia imagined would prop up a potential Ukrainian puppet state (though it seems Russia greatly over-estimated the depths of their pro-Russia sentiments). All of those things would make it unthinkable for Russia to contemplate invading, and that's before we take into account that they're already slogging it out in Ukraine.
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Yes, after the losses they have incurred in the past 12 months, they are not in the position to invade anyone else in the next 5+ years.
 
the hea said:
12 months ago a lot of people where saying the same about a Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine.

This is the main reason why our goverment is so reluctant to give to many away, history has taught us that we need to be prepared. They know that the tanks might be needed, especially since the open door policy of NATO seems to be not so fully open.

I personally think it should be possible to give more than a few, which is what has been suggested here. We have in total 100 2A6s and somewhere between 80-90 of the older 2A4s. The 2A6 version is probably seen as to important to give any away but when it comes to the 2A4s they will most likely need to be replaced within the next 10-15 years anyway so if a contract for replacements could be secured with deliveries within the next 2-3 years I think a large part of the 2A4s should be available.
The problem is that it won't be easy to buy new tanks in the coming years. Production capacity is almost non existent for most manufaturers and the demand will go through the roof when all the tanks going to Ukraine will need to be replaced.
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I genuinely believe we should both be giving as much as we can, the line of defense is over there...

The not yet in NATO argument isn't that relevant... Finland is not Ukraine; you're in the EU, which includes a military alliance of all countries except Malta and Denmark. Above the EU, we have specific defense guarantees from the US and the UK during the accession process. That's basically every NATO country that really matters... Russia is not invading Sweden or Finland after Biden's promised to defend them...

The open door policy clearly applies to us, this is going to be the quickest procedure ever... And it makes sense. It was big EU countries (Netherlands, and mainly France & Germany...) that blocked Ukraine. Sweden and Finland joining is good news for these countries, as they have to defend us anyway. With us in NATO, they can share this burden with the US.

Hungary had been stalling this to use it in some negotiations within the EU council, but it has now been cleared and they will likely ratify it within the next month or two. Erdogan is a d***, but it is likely related to internal politics. He has a big election coming up this spring and wants to present himself as a strong figure on the geopolitical scene. He needs this to win re-election for presidency, and it is still unlikely that his coalition can maintain their parliamentary majority.
 
nimic said:
True, but that doesn't make it a valid counter-argument in any situation. Finland is in the EU, and is currently in the process of joining NATO. It also has a very solid defensive military. There is also no conceivable pro-Russian part of the population, like the one Russia imagined would prop up a potential Ukrainian puppet state (though it seems Russia greatly over-estimated the depths of their pro-Russia sentiments). All of those things would make it unthinkable for Russia to contemplate invading, and that's before we take into account that they're already slogging it out in Ukraine.
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I agree that the chance of Russian aggression is currently very low, the Finnish intelligence service said a couple of weeks ago that they estimate that under 25% of the Russian military personel and equipment stationed near the Finnish border 1 year ago are now left. But if we start giving up to much of our defense capabilties there is a chance someone in Russia might start getting some ideas, the more desperate they become the more unpredictable they will behave.
We are also one of the smallest countries in the EU, 5.5 million people or a little over 1% of the total population so even if we only give 4-6 tanks we would still have given way more then the EU average. There are other countries who are in a much better position to give tanks now, Greece and Spain for example have over 300 Leopards each and are in a much better place geographically speaking.

But as I stated further up my own opinion is that we should give more then a few, we should at least match the Germans and give a company worth of tanks now and if we could secure replacements within a reasonable time frame all of our 2A4s should be made available.
 
sport2793 said:
It was in the middle of a flat desert though, kind of hard to hide infantrymen with anti-tank missiles in that environment. With that said as long as Ukraine can deploy recon drones with infantry supporting the tanks, they can get by without traditional air superiority. I do think though that having air superiority leads to a lot of the lopsided open-field victories that the US can rack up.
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In the massive Battle of Norfolk, just 2000m east of 73 Easting, the lines actually intermingled due to the weather and confusion. That said, yes, it’ll definitely be much easier to get into a close combat situation in Ukraine.

Agreed, I’m just saying 73 Easting wasn’t because of it.
 
the hea said:
I agree that the chance of Russian aggression is currently very low, the Finnish intelligence service said a couple of weeks ago that they estimate that under 25% of the Russian military personel and equipment stationed near the Finnish border 1 year ago are now left. But if we start giving up to much of our defense capabilties there is a chance someone in Russia might start getting some ideas, the more desperate they become the more unpredictable they will behave.
We are also one of the smallest countries in the EU, 5.5 million people or a little over 1% of the total population so even if we only give 4-6 tanks we would still have given way more then the EU average. There are other countries who are in a much better position to give tanks now, Greece and Spain for example have over 300 Leopards each and are in a much better place geographically speaking.

But as I stated further up my own opinion is that we should give more then a few, we should at least match the Germans and give a company worth of tanks now and if we could secure replacements within a reasonable time frame all of our 2A4s should be made available.
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Am I right in thinking Finland has something pretty much written into law/constitution to maintain a certain level of readiness against the threat of Russia?
 
Simbo said:
Am I right in thinking Finland has something pretty much written into law/constitution to maintain a certain level of readiness against the threat of Russia?
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We have something called total national defense (kokonaismaanpuolustus in Finnish) it includes a lot of laws for both the military and the civil sector to protect the country and it's citizens against external threats.
 
So weekly missile attack again. You hope their stock pile is going to run out soon (again).
 
Raoul said:
The US doesn't need that to look tough. Its already contributed more than everyone else combined. Not that the contributions of other countries (especially Poland) aren't impressive given their respective GDPs, but in the end, its the cumulative effect of all nations that are going to make a difference.

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Kind of crazy how much stick Germany gets compared to France and Italy, that are barely mentioned. France in particular has an army stronger than Germany, and has given feck all to Ukraine, but no one criticizes them.
 
The United said:
So weekly missile attack again. You hope their stock pile is going to run out soon (again).
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They are not likely to run out, perhaps on certain types. The question is more how many they are willing to use in Ukraine and let their stockpiles run low on the various types. They also have production capability, just not enough to replace what they are currently using, and their usage has slowed down. We should expect that to continue.

Hopes of them "running out" was before it was realised their S-300's would be used for ground attack.

 
Morty_ said:
As for mobilization from Russia, not a whole lot of people from Moscow or St Petersburg have been drafted, correct?

At some point, Putin will have round up people from the main cities too, curious to see the reactions then.
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No one truly knows but near the end* of the first wave of mobilization there have been a lot of mobilization sweeps in big cities including Moscow & St. Petersburg.

* it hasn't ended as the mobilization is still in place but there haven't been a lot of activity lately
 
Revan said:
Kind of crazy how much stick Germany gets compared to France and Italy, that are barely mentioned. France in particular has an army stronger than Germany, and has given feck all to Ukraine, but no one criticizes them.
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Terrible PR due to the reluctance of our chancellor. So at least part of that is self-inflicted and well deserved.

But a lotof it is what is always happening. Anti-German sentiments are the go-to option for some countries/parties in some countries whenever something in Europe goes wrong. As Germans we are used to (at least our government) being "literally Hitler" because it does (or doesn't) do something. Especially the Polish PiS is remarkable in that regard, but of course there are also people like our resident Greek economy victim @frostbite

0ef3fcc53904ffdb.jpg
 
Revan said:
Kind of crazy how much stick Germany gets compared to France and Italy, that are barely mentioned. France in particular has an army stronger than Germany, and has given feck all to Ukraine, but no one criticizes them.
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France has a somewhat stronger army than Denmark or Latvia as well.
 
stefan92 said:
Terrible PR due to the reluctance of our chancellor. So at least part of that is self-inflicted and well deserved.

But a lotof it is what is always happening. Anti-German sentiments are the go-to option for some countries/parties in some countries whenever something in Europe goes wrong. As Germans we are used to (at least our government) being "literally Hitler" because it does (or doesn't) do something. Especially the Polish PiS is remarkable in that regard, but of course there are also people like our resident Greek economy victim @frostbite

0ef3fcc53904ffdb.jpg
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Maybe not the best meme template to represent Germany. Because of literally Hitler.

Also memes are dumb.
 
nimic said:
Maybe not the best meme template to represent Germany. Because of literally Hitler.

Also memes are dumb.
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Austria quietly whistling in a corner :rolleyes:

From the outside I think that the EU's response has been similar to their response on issues like Brexit, COVID, etc. as in they started making a mess out of it, but given time they have been slowly but surely getting their act together and doing what needs to be done. The main surprise to me has been the resolve to get together and make a common front for almost a year, altough the US (and surprisingly the UK as well) pressure has helped a lot in that.
 
Piece from Reuters on dead convicts who joined Wagner.

“He always had crazy ideas. An incorrigible optimist,” Viktorova said. Nabiev probably “thought that he’d take a quick trip to Ukraine and earn some money.”
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One of the youngest, buried at the nearby Martanskaya cemetery, is Vadim Pushnya. He was just 25 years old when he died on Nov. 19. Pushnya was imprisoned in 2020 for burgling garages, a beer shop and a cement factory in his hometown of Goryachiy Klyuch, close to the Wagner chapel. The birthdate on Pushnya’s grave matches the date given on his social media accounts and in court records.
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https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-graves-wagner/
 
stefan92 said:
Terrible PR due to the reluctance of our chancellor. So at least part of that is self-inflicted and well deserved.

But a lotof it is what is always happening. Anti-German sentiments are the go-to option for some countries/parties in some countries whenever something in Europe goes wrong. As Germans we are used to (at least our government) being "literally Hitler" because it does (or doesn't) do something. Especially the Polish PiS is remarkable in that regard, but of course there are also people like our resident Greek economy victim @frostbite

0ef3fcc53904ffdb.jpg
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History is important, do you agree?

1. When Germany invades a country and this results in the death of over 10% of the population from starvation and execution, people will remember it for a long time. Don't you agree?

2. When Germany refuses to help a smaller country that asks for help, because "they have corruption" and gives morality lessons making their position even worse than it was before, while at the same time, Germany makes a shitload of money with Putin (the uncorrupted!)... people will remember it for a long time. Don't you agree?

And I am talking about Ukraine. Or about Greece.

3. When Germany is telling everyone that they are the supreme moral pacifists and that's the reason they don't spend money for the defense sector of the EU and they don't want to send tanks to Ukraine, but at the same time they make a lot of money from arms exports and they are the largest producer of tanks in Europe... people will question the German motives or call them hypocrites. Don't you agree?


Do the Germans really have to ask "why always me?"
 
Now send some F-16s to Ukraine, please! They have been asking for F-16s for months...


https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/26/europe/ukraine-tanks-fighter-jets-intl/index.html

Tanks for Ukraine once seemed unthinkable. Could fighter jets be next?

But while last year the delivery of fighter jets was declared by the Pentagon press secretary to bring “little increased capabilities, at high risk,” now Jon Finer, the US Deputy National Security Adviser, says that they have “not ruled in or out any specific systems,” including the F-16.

The Netherlands, too, elicited some raised eyebrows last week, when its foreign minister told a parliamentarian asking about F-16s that “when it comes to things that the Netherlands can supply, there are no taboos.”
 
frostbite said:
History is important, do you agree?

1. When Germany invades a country and this results in the death of over 10% of the population from starvation and execution, people will remember it for a long time. Don't you agree?

2. When Germany refuses to help a smaller country that asks for help, because "they have corruption" and gives morality lessons making their position even worse than it was before, while at the same time, Germany makes a shitload of money with Putin (the uncorrupted!)... people will remember it for a long time. Don't you agree?

And I am talking about Ukraine. Or about Greece.

3. When Germany is telling everyone that they are the supreme moral pacifists and that's the reason they don't spend money for the defense sector of the EU and they don't want to send tanks to Ukraine, but at the same time they make a lot of money from arms exports and they are the largest producer of tanks in Europe... people will question the German motives or call them hypocrites. Don't you agree?


Do the Germans really have to ask "why always me?"
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You're talking some shit, jesus
 
VorZakone said:
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I admit I lack knowledge of Russian politics, but it seems like a stretch that he would be a threat to Putin. He is an awful human being and the head of an awful organization that is power hungry and brutal in achieving his ends, but a threat to Putin's power?

Reading the article, the base of his power seems to be exaggerated as well - he has support from the separatist provinces and some in the media. Even with a private army, is that really enough to challenge Putin, especially when it seems like the real source of his power is Putin, and turning on him probably wouldn't work out too well

Also, historically, any coup seems to be dependent mightily on the support of the armed forces. I know he has a vast private army, but I am also sure he is making no friends within the Russian military who likely see him also as a threat to their power - like the Heer/Wehrmacht and its relationship to the SS (though, obviously, the Waffen SS was also state controlled). Putin seems to be the entire source of his power and influence, that's not the best basis for a successful coup.

Also, the article points out that Putin is weary of challengers, but isn't that what makes Prigozhin such an appealing character for Putin? Prigozhin's complete reliance on his relationship to Putin
 
Revan said:
Kind of crazy how much stick Germany gets compared to France and Italy, that are barely mentioned. France in particular has an army stronger than Germany, and has given feck all to Ukraine, but no one criticizes them.
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Not to disrespect Italy, but everyone already knew that their military is in a very poor state. However, I agree with you about France deserving more stick because they are disgracefully bad in the amount of military aid sent, especially when their military industrial complex currently has a hard time finding clients compared to other big weapons sellers.
 
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