Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

There's been talk of a so called 'black box' project by Ukraine to develop their own deep strike capability. Rumoured to be a 1000km range drone. So, I think that is what is driving the drone speculation.
 
Simbo said:
Appears it didn't stop their plans for the day.
Click to expand...


Surprised the Russians still have enough missiles to keep these attacks up, especially given that most get shot down. Seems like an act of late stage desperation to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure before the worst of winter sets in. Either that or they've simply been reduced to pointless terrorism.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
If going through Opération Serval was fairly popular in the eyes of the French, why would giving Putin the middle finger be a step too far? And besides, doesn't Macron have a military industrial complex to satisfy after a bunch of contracts were lost to the British and the Americans?

Since there is no election on the horizon, nothing should stop him from telling it like it is to the cnut in the Kremlin.
Click to expand...

I think he's trying to frame the French position as the rational diplomatic option that is perceived as the interlocutor that pushed the peace process. It won't work of course since neither RU or UKR sides are going to back down from their positions anytime soon.
 

Not too bad, when those additional 6 NASAMS and 3 IRIS-T systems will be delivered in the upcoming months that percentage might enter into 90+% territory.
 
Raoul said:
Surprised the Russians still have enough missiles to keep these attacks up, especially given that most get shot down. Seems like an act of late stage desperation to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure before the worst of winter sets in. Either that or they've simply been reduced to pointless terrorism.
Click to expand...
It's not exactly surprising though because the western intelligence estimations are not always accurate. Plus spouting shites on internet by various people can make it worse.

It's why I said, 1 to 6 ratio or whatever men power loss should not be used to predict the combat capability of the Russians.
 
Last edited:
The United said:
It's not exactly surprising though because the western intelligence estimations are not always accurate. Plus spouting shites on internet by various people can make it worse.

It's why I said, 1 to 6 ratio or whatever men power loss should not be used to predict the combat capability of the Russians. There is still a long way to go for the war to be finished sadly.
Click to expand...

The two topics aren't really related to one another. Its entirely possible the Russians are expending their remaining volleys of misses while also having accurately lost the around the same amount of soldiers as has been reported. I suppose you could also make the case they are desperately heaving whatever they can at Ukraine in the absence of competent replenishments of troops. The strategy appears to be to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure to make them miserable over winter.
 
Raoul said:
The two topics aren't really related to one another. Its entirely possible the Russians are expending their remaining volleys of misses while also having accurately lost the around the same amount of soldiers as has been reported. I suppose you could also make the case they are desperately heaving whatever they can at Ukraine in the absence of competent replenishments of troops. The strategy appears to be to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure to make them miserable over winter.
Click to expand...
The point was though we are definitely in our own bubble with the information.

People kept saying their efforts would be collapsed along with their economy months ago.

We are definitely underestimating their efforts to stay in the war.
 
The United said:
The point was though we are definitely in our own bubble with the information.

People kept saying their efforts would be collapsed along with their economy months ago.

We are definitely underestimating their efforts to stay in the war.
Click to expand...

I don't think we are to be honest. No one is expecting Putin to back down, in fact if his behavior in recent years was an indicator, he was expected to double down because appearing weak to his domestic constituents was never going to happen.
 
MTF said:
I wonder if there's no way to attempt to shoot them down using launchers within Romania?
Click to expand...

There is, although the Moldovans may have a problem with it since it would make them look like their airspace was up for grabs for NATO and Russia to use against one another.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think we are to be honest. No one is expecting Putin to back down, in fact if his behavior in recent years was an indicator, he was expected to double down because appearing weak to his domestic constituents was never going to happen.
Click to expand...
For sure and more suffering for the people of Ukraine, unfortunately.
 
MTF said:
I wonder if there's no way to attempt to shoot them down using launchers within Romania?
Click to expand...
Due to the earths curvature and topography the tracking radars needs to be very close to the tragets to be able to see low flying objects like cruise missiles. Russian cruise missiles like the KH-101 and Kalibr fly at an altitude of about 50m, I would guess the radar would need to be within 10km to be able to track them.
 
Raoul said:
There is, although the Moldovans may have a problem with it since it would make them look like their airspace was up for grabs for NATO and Russia to use against one another.
Click to expand...
Yep, that I can see.
Mihai said:
Romania is not getting involved.
Click to expand...
I dunno... they're already a significant supply route for NATO weapons getting delivered to Ukraine. They're a full NATO member too, so they wouldn't quite be doing it on their own.
the hea said:
Due to the earths curvature and topography the tracking radars needs to be very close to the tragets to be able to see low flying objects like cruise missiles. Russian cruise missiles like the KH-101 and Kalibr fly at an altitude of about 50m, I would guess the radar would need to be within 10km to be able to track them.
Click to expand...
Right, I forgot about the low-flying aspect of the cruise missiles. I guess airborne systems can detect them, but then providing a lock for a SAM missile to track is a whole other issue.
 
The United said:
The point was though we are definitely in our own bubble with the information.

People kept saying their efforts would be collapsed along with their economy months ago.

We are definitely underestimating their efforts to stay in the war.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone is underestimating their efforts to stay in the war. I just think it's an ongoing sunk cost fallacy at this point on the part of the Russian leadership because it's clearly complete madness to continue.

If anything it smacks of absolute desperation to mobilise 300,000 people and start DESTROYING the infrastructure of parts of a country they say belong to them. What is Russia actually going to get out of this war once it's done, really? Absolute pariah status, a wrecked country full of 40million potential insurgents that would ENJOY -killing- Russians for dozens if not hundreds of years afterwards? A smashed economy, that can no longer do business with any country that isn't an authoritarian shithole?

To the average Russian maybe they don't care because presumably their standards of living will barely change there's so much corruption in tptb, but once the UK and Europeans sort out their energy infrastructure - and we will, we have a fusion plant being built and it really could be a game changer, and by this time next year alternative sources will undoubtedly have been built, we won't suffer forever - and then all these power games will have been for nothing.
 
The United said:
For sure and more suffering for the people of Ukraine, unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Ukrainians are overwhelmingly prepared for it though as they know only complete Russian capitulation will ensure their safety and prosperity at this stage long-term.
stefan92 said:
At least not the typical propeller drone like a Bayraktar. The calculated speed matches a typical cruise missile, but also the travelling speed of those bombers.

However Ukraine does possess some old jet powered Tu-141 reconnaissance drones, which could in theory carry a warhead for a suicide mission and would fly at that speed, so a modified Ukrainian drone is indeed a possibility, and considering that Ukraine gets a lot of intel from NATO as well as from their more modern drones this would be a useful way to bin this old stuff.
Click to expand...
Highly speculative at this stage but this what you were referring to earlier today:
 
The United said:
The point was though we are definitely in our own bubble with the information.

People kept saying their efforts would be collapsed along with their economy months ago.

We are definitely underestimating their efforts to stay in the war.
Click to expand...

There are many different bubbles of information clearly, especially within "western media".
 
GazTheLegend said:
I don't think anyone is underestimating their efforts to stay in the war. I just think it's an ongoing sunk cost fallacy at this point on the part of the Russian leadership because it's clearly complete madness to continue.

If anything it smacks of absolute desperation to mobilise 300,000 people and start DESTROYING the infrastructure of parts of a country they say belong to them. What is Russia actually going to get out of this war once it's done, really? Absolute pariah status, a wrecked country full of 40million potential insurgents that would ENJOY -killing- Russians for dozens if not hundreds of years afterwards? A smashed economy, that can no longer do business with any country that isn't an authoritarian shithole?

To the average Russian maybe they don't care because presumably their standards of living will barely change there's so much corruption in tptb, but once the UK and Europeans sort out their energy infrastructure - and we will, we have a fusion plant being built and it really could be a game changer, and by this time next year alternative sources will undoubtedly have been built, we won't suffer forever - and then all these power games will have been for nothing.
Click to expand...

Isn't the fusion plant a prototype? Not sure it'll be providing significant power for decades. We might be beaming energy from space before then.

Your overall point still stands though that Russia's course is one of significant decline: an aging population which refuses to modernise, and funded by fossil fuels which are owned by oligarchs who are happy hoarding all the wealth. Unfortunately, crumbling empires that refuse to look honestly at themselves are often the most dangerous, as this war has proved.
 
Simbo said:
There are many different bubbles of information clearly, especially within "western media".
Click to expand...

Yeah like US, UK, France, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Holland...almost like they're different countries or something. The government don't want you to think about that though, they want to keep you stupid.
 
goalscholes said:
Isn't the fusion plant a prototype? Not sure it'll be providing significant power for decades. We might be beaming energy from space before then.

Your overall point still stands though that Russia's course is one of significant decline: an aging population which refuses to modernise, and funded by fossil fuels which are owned by oligarchs who are happy hoarding all the wealth. Unfortunately, crumbling empires that refuse to look honestly at themselves are often the most dangerous, as this war has proved.
Click to expand...

Yep, it's not to say we shouldn't be looking at fusion energy but the odds of that being what gets us to net zero are absolutely miniscule.
 
Simbo said:
There are many different bubbles of information clearly, especially within "western media".
Click to expand...
Our own bubble means we only hear from one side of the conflict mostly. I mean it is not exactly hard to understand what I mean there.

And, I am talking about the combat and war news specifically.
 

Couldn’t have written any better myself. Good thread. We need to pressure our politicians as much as possible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.