I'm mostly sceptical because of the big intangible: motivation. It seems obvious that Madrid and France have reached the end of their cycle, the elite players have lost that edge, and Varane's a very visible part of both. There really isn't any evidence that United has the kind of atmosphere to turn that around, and there is historical evidence that we're quite good at doing the opposite.
If he was able to get that edge back then I'd be delighted. Such a good partner for someone like Maguire on paper. But for Varane, United is a step down from Real, Manchester is a step down from Madrid, Ole is a step down from Zidane. The only thing we have in our favour at the moment is a group of players that are mostly on the up, and Varane could relish the role of leading them from challengers to winners, in a way that Ramos did for him.
The idea that he'll be motivated by a new challenge by default is just not true unfortunately. He could be coming here for a pay day, he could be coming here to have less pressure, he could just be coming here because he's being forced out and no-one else can afford him. We've had all three scenarios before with big names coming from bigger European clubs and ultimately being a disappointment as a result. I think people ignore that because accepting it would mean acknowledging the fact United are not a top-tier club for elite players outside the UK. Sir Alex recognised that and tailored his transfer strategy accordingly, since then people like Woodward have ignored that reality and been stung multiple times.