Looking at PL stats:
Ralf first 8 PL matches (5 wins , 2 draws, 1 loss). 12 goals scored, 6 conceded: Expected goals against us: 8,53
Oles last 8 PL matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses) 9 goals scored, 18 conceded: Expected goals against us: 15,4
If we look at the stats for those teams:
Teams VS Ole's United:
Average goals scored combined: 13,55
Average expected goals combined: 13,1
Actual XG: 17,51
Actual goals scored vs United: 18
Average goals against: 11,1
Average expected goals against: 10,27
Actual XGA: 11,02
Teams VS Ralf's United:
Average goals scored combined: 9,09
Average expected goals combined: 9,04
Actual XG: 8,53
Actual goals scored vs united: 6
Average goals against: 12,4
Average expected goals against: 12,02
Actual XGA: 12,48
I think people are going slightly overboard in terms of just how much we control matches and how big the difference is. Under Ralf we've generally played against teams that will sit back and try to hit us on the counter. Yet, teams have generally had a higher xg against us than they do on average. The major offsets are Crystal Palace, Ralfs first match, and West Ham yesterday, but it wasn't until the 92,5min that we created the chance that completely changes the stats, otherwise we'd be way below the average, and even that was a result of a counter rather than sustained pressure. We were lucky not to be 2 goals down at half time against Brentford as well, which would have made it very difficult.
I thought Crystal Palace was the best match we've played under Ralf, so I'm a bit surprised that the West Ham performance is being praised so much in the media. We were extremely high up the pitch and didn't allow Crystal Palace to do much. Crystal Palace had 350 passes with av pass streak 3 and a 71% pass succ rate, much closer to how I expected us to generally try to play under Ralf. West Ham had 432 passes, avg pass streak 4 and with a 75% succ rate. West Ham were happy to allow us to have the ball and rarely put us under much pressure until we went past the midfield, they ventured forward a bit more in the second half and the match became more open, but i thought they were surprisingly negative yesterday, but that might be a direct result of their huge loss against Leeds, who had an XG of 2,27 against West Ham (avg is 1,4) and scored 3 (avg is 1,34), not to mention Moyes and his horrible stats at OT.
Brentford put us under plenty of pressure the times they decided to apply collective pressing high up the pitch, one of their biggest chances was a direct result of that.
For me, it's still a fairly valid concern that our control so far is more a result of the opposition rather than a major improvement on our side. I think we look much better as a team, especially in terms of putting pressure at the right time and as a team rather than individuals, but is that because of the opposition and Ralf, or just Ralf. How much improvement can be seen when we play against sides that will more or less constantly put us under pressure and allow us very little time on the ball, will our stats remain similar or will we revert to giving away goals. It's also a major concern that our attackers spend most of the match looking completely disconnected from each other, not to mention the rest of the team. Given the players available up top, i must admit that i expected more of an instant change in direction, better communication and attacking football.
Then again, I could be completely wrong as well and simply not seeing the obvious.
Our next 10 matches: Boro, Burnley, Southampton,Leeds, Atletico, Watford, City,Tottenham, Atletico, Liverpool.
It'll be very interesting to see if there's a general improvement in our attacking football by the time we play Atletico.
Good stats and review!
However a few things. The palace match was the best example we've had of pressing under Ralf. It was also his first game and could be attributed to a bit of a new manager bounce as the games since then we have barely controlled. The reason the west ham game is getting praised (rightly so) is that there have been small improvements that we have been able to see that actually started to come together. For example the last 3 games we've started to play with a proper 3 in midfield and as a result we dominated the midfield of west ham, something which I dont think we've done since Newcastle and something that we were not really known for under Ole. Now this could be a one off, but the fact that we've seen signs of it in the previous two games to me shows that its something weve been working towards.
Another small thing to note is that both telles and dalot (moreso Dalot) help out centrally in the midfield. They are not quite playing fully as inverted fullbacks, but Dalot especially (due to having very good technique) often is getting the ball in right centre mid postions providing an extra option (similar to cancelo but not as extreme as him). Think of the amount of times we are seeing him underlap, pick up the ball on the edge of the box, making runs into box, picking up the ball centrally etc.This is also a reason we've gained more control in the mid third. Something we would not be able to do with awb.
In yesterday's match we were comfortable defensively and in the midfield for most of the match. If we can maintain that control whilst introducing some better attacking patterns of play then we are in for a bright future.
So yeah whilst the stats may say one thing, the reality is yesterday was our most controlled and mature match that we have played in a veryyyyy long time.
