Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season

Relying on Arsenal v Bayern to a big extent as well.
Dortmund vs Atletico on Tuesday will be the next really interesting match in this regard. Especially as Dortmund should be double motivated to proceed. Obviously you want to reach the semifinal, but also they are the BL team that currently would profit from the additional CL spot. If they manage to stay in they will give Germany a lead that München and Leverkusen maybe can defend.
 
Dortmund vs Atletico on Tuesday will be the next really interesting match in this regard. Especially as Dortmund should be double motivated to proceed. Obviously you want to reach the semifinal, but also they are the BL team that currently would profit from the additional CL spot. If they manage to stay in they will give Germany a lead that München and Leverkusen maybe can defend.
I vision a scenario where we pip Spurs to 5th by a point (mainly cos Spurs fall apart and we scrape some lucky wins) and then Sancho helps Dortmund and Germany for that extra place :eek:
No, who am I kidding, 6th is as high as we are going to get anyway so it is irrelevant :(
 
I vision a scenario where we pip Spurs to 5th by a point (mainly cos Spurs fall apart and we scrape some lucky wins) and then Sancho helps Dortmund and Germany for that extra place :eek:
No, who am I kidding, 6th is as high as we are going to get anyway so it is irrelevant :(
It isn't, as it would then make the difference between EL and ECL for you.
 
It isn't, as it would then make the difference between EL and ECL for you.
Thanks. So as clear as mud, we may need to won the Fa Cup or for it to be won by City :(.

That is if we care about EL vs ECL - either way that comp needs to utilise the wider squad for the first part at least

Oh the good old days where it was truly the European Cup, the UEFA Cup and the Cup Winners Cup :D
 
I'm sorry but to suggest there is even a tiny hope is ridiculous. Nothing whatsoever suggests we will win 8 games in a row, no chance at all.
Difficult yes, but look at the fixtures. It's not at all ridiculous to suggest that we could win the next four, while Tottenham are losing the next four. That's 12 points already (we are currently 11 points behind Tottenham). Even if we draw one, or Tottenham draw a couple, we would still be right behind them. There is indeed a tiny change that we could challenge Tottenham or Villa for a 5th place.
 
Difficult yes, but look at the fixtures. It's not at all ridiculous to suggest that we could win the next four, while Tottenham are losing the next four. That's 12 points already (we are currently 11 points behind Tottenham). Even if we draw one, or Tottenham draw a couple, we would still be right behind them. There is indeed a tiny change that we could challenge Tottenham or Villa for a 5th place.

Now you've gone and given me some hope. You're right, we could win 4 and Tot could lose 4 in row. However, we all know this team will disappoint once we think there is a chance. Maybe we should lose Saturday and put us out of our misery rather than getting our hopes up.

Besides that, if we squeak by in 5th with CL does that mean we have to suffer ETH next season?
 
Besides that, if we squeak by in 5th with CL does that mean we have to suffer ETH next season?
If he's kept on for that alone it'd be a bit worrying in regards to the clubs decision making.

If all English teams get knocked out of Europe - sack
If enough English teams make it through - keep

A little absurd I think
 
7% feels very generous - it looks vanishingly unlikely that United can finish in the top 5.

Our form over the last 6 games is W1 D2 L3 and we were lucky not to concede 3 or 4 goals in both of the draws. Holding on to a top 7 position looks shaky at this stage.
 
"All" we need to do is to win all our remaining games, then we will probably make top 5. Our run-in is quite light, so it's not totally undoable. Both Tottenham and Aston Villa (especially Tottenham) have a tough program and I can't see Tottenham getting many more points this season. If they (or Villa) totally bottles it, we might not even need to win them all.

Bournemouth - Man.Utd.
Man.Utd. - Newcastle
Man.Utd. - Sheffield United
Man.Utd. - Burnley
Crystal Palace - Man.Utd.
Man.Utd. - Arsenal
Brighton - Man.Utd.

Winning them all would see us ending on 70 points.

Tottenham's remaining fixtures:

Newcastle - Tottenham (potential loss)
Tottenham - Arsenal (likely loss)
Chelsea - Tottenham (potential loss)
Liverpool - Tottenham (likely loss)
Tottenham - Burnley (win)
Tottenham - Man.City (likely loss)
Sheffield U. - Tottenham (win)

So, let's say then end up collecting only 6 points; that would hand them a total of 66 points. In that case, we can afford losing one game.


And Aston Villa:

Arsenal - Aston Villa (likely loss)
Aston Villa - Bournemouth (win)
Aston Villa - Chelsea (win)
Brighton - Aston Villa (potential loss)
Aston Villa - Liverpool (likely loss)
Crystal Palace - Aston Villa (potential loss)

So let's say they win 2 and draw 2; they would end up on 68 points.

So, still a tiny hope, IMO.
Yeah, I like your optimism. But when a team concedes at least 20 shots every match, it's literally impossible to win all these games.
 
I’m just sick seeing spurs lose. They aren’t gonna get more than 70 points so technically I feel top 5 is achievable but we aren’t gonna win 7 games on the trot. Even beating Chelsea would have made it far more attainable.

Kind of want to just wake up in June and whatever has happened to team and ETH future been sorted.
 
I'm hoping 5th spot does not get champions league football for epl side to soften the blow of us wasting so many opportunities to clinch the spot, I will be sorely disappointed if ten hag stays on after basically making us finish clos etc the same points tally that we had in the awful season before he joined.
 
I'm hoping 5th spot does not get champions league football for epl side to soften the blow of us wasting so many opportunities to clinch the spot, I will be sorely disappointed if ten hag stays on after basically making us finish clos etc the same points tally that we had in the awful season before he joined.

With Spurs losing, if we hadn't thrown away 7 points in the last 3 games, 4th was on. It's going to be upsetting either way.
 
Well that hope didn't last long.

ETH out.
 
Was never going to be possible with this squad and coach. Even if villa and spurs collapse and give us a chance, we will not be able to capitalize. May be even for the best.
 
I wouldn’t even back us to finish 5th if Spurs lost all their games and finished on 60 points.
 
if chelsea win the 2 games in hand they have on us they will above us on GD
 
Winning last night would have at least gave us chance to make it interesting.

With Spurs having
Arsenal, Chelsea (A) , Liverpool (A)

And us
Sheff U, Burnley, Palace (A)

Small chance we could have been above them or level going into the final 3 games.

It ridiculous how bad we've been.
 
We can close this thread now, turn out the lights and lock the door. This is done. We are a Europa League standard team and will stay that way for at least the next season. :(
I pray to god we don’t drop into the ECL.
 
Race for what :lol: We will probably win a maximum of 2 more league games.
 
It’s probably a complete waste of time discussing it as we’re not going to win all our games in a million years, but we could at least make it slightly interesting by beating Burnley and Sheffield United and getting it down to 4 or 5 points with 4 games to play if Spurs fail to win their next two.
 
It’s probably a complete waste of time discussing it as we’re not going to win all our games in a million years, but we could at least make it slightly interesting by beating Burnley and Sheffield United and getting it down to 4 or 5 points with 4 games to play if Spurs fail to win their next two.

Spurs still have to play Burnley and Sheffield United too though, so those games effectively cancel each other out.
 
Am I right in saying we are guaranteed Europa League if we play City in the FA Cup final? Otherwise I can see us qualifying for the Conference, which will be really disappointing.
 
Is 6th a guaranteed EL spot even if 1-5 is CL? Or is there a scenario where 6th is only ConfLeague?
 
It’s probably a complete waste of time discussing it as we’re not going to win all our games in a million years, but we could at least make it slightly interesting by beating Burnley and Sheffield United and getting it down to 4 or 5 points with 4 games to play if Spurs fail to win their next two.
Yeah but trouble is Spurs will beat Burnley and Sheffield United and that's enough for 5th place finish. Can lose rest of their games, none of Newcastle/us/Chelsea will catch them. Only question is whether Villa or Spurs finish 4th, though Villa seem to be favourites given their easier schedule.

Only hope our players can stay professional and finish 6th. That's our maximum.
 
Am I right in saying we are guaranteed Europa League if we play City in the FA Cup final? Otherwise I can see us qualifying for the Conference, which will be really disappointing.
I am not sure but I think the rule of having the losing finalist take up the FA Cup EL spot when the winner is already CL qualified has been abandoned in favour of an extra EL spot via the league table. So the 6th (or 7th if indeed the PL got a 5th CL spot which will be a very close call) will qualify for EL while the 7th or 8th for ECL. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but ECL here we come.
 
Presumably Dortmund winning last night has reduced the chances of an extra European spot even further.
 
Presumably Dortmund winning last night has reduced the chances of an extra European spot even further.
not looking good.
after last night its
  • Italy - 18.428
  • Germany - 17.215
  • England - 16.750
will likely be even worse Thursday night as Leverkusen will knock out West Ham and Atlanta will knock out Liverpool. Bayern vs Arsenal might be the deal breaker plus would need City and Villa to win their respective competitions
 
not looking good.
after last night its
  • Italy - 18.428
  • Germany - 17.215
  • England - 16.750
will likely be even worse Thursday night as Leverkusen will knock out West Ham and Atlanta will knock out Liverpool. Bayern vs Arsenal might be the deal breaker plus would need City and Villa to win their respective competitions
Both City and Villa are probably both favourites to win their competition, will that not have a significant impact on the rankings if they do?

We are not getting fifth so it is little relevance to us but be interesting to know.
 
I am not sure but I think the rule of having the losing finalist take up the FA Cup EL spot when the winner is already CL qualified has been abandoned in favour of an extra EL spot via the league table. So the 6th (or 7th if indeed the PL got a 5th CL spot which will be a very close call) will qualify for EL while the 7th or 8th for ECL. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but ECL here we come.
you are right indeed… Here is the break it down i did in this thread.

if we expect city to win the FA Cup, then, normally 7th or 8th goes to the conference league, depending on whether England gets the extra CL spot or not.

scenario 1: City wins the FA Cup and England makes the UEFA top 2. (7th play Europa league, and 8th play conference league)

scenario 2:City wins the FA Cup and England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (6th play Europa league, and 7th play conference league)

scenario 3:Man United wins the FA Cup, we are guaranteed Europa league, at least, no matter the rest.

scenario 4: Coventry or Chelsea wins the FA Cup and England makes the UEFA top 2. ( FA Cup winner play Europa league, and 7th play conference league)

scenario 5: Coventry or Chelsea wins the FA Cup and England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (FA Cup winner play Europa league, and 6th play conference league)

The last two scenarios are also based on Chelsea, not making top six of the PL.

Added possibilites of Chelsea 6th (wasn’t reasonable three weeks ago)
scenario 7: Chelsea wins the FA Cup & finishes 6th + England makes the UEFA top 2. ( FA Cup winner is the 6th so plays Europa league, and 7th also play Europa, 8th play conference league)

scenario 8: Chelsea wins the FA Cup & finishes 6th but England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (5th + FA Cup winner who is the 6th plays Europa league and 7th play conference league)
 
Both City and Villa are probably both favourites to win their competition, will that not have a significant impact on the rankings if they do?

We are not getting fifth so it is little relevance to us but be interesting to know.
It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.