That's not what he wrote. You need to look at the big picture. The long term implications of Newcaetle getting top four.
Race for top 4 | Finito.
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
- Start date
Next three matches are big for us all winnable. Keep doing what we are doing and too 4 will be fine. It’s in our hands the position we are in now is way better than I had hoped at the start of the season. Momentum is huge in a congested fixture list - hopefully we stay in front foot.
To hope Spurs overtake Newcastle is to hope Spurs win their games.
To hope Spurs win their games when they're 3 points behind us is just insane.
We're currently at the stage where we hope both Spurs and Newcastle lose every game. That continues until they're nowhere near us, at which time we can start supporting Spurs.
Do you want Spurs to beat Leicester next weekend for example? They're never going to overtake Newcastle if they keep dropping points. But we very clear want them to be dropping points at every opportunity.
Why should we care whether Spurs or Newcastle finish in the top 4 as long as we do?
Way too much pessimism. Arsenal, next three matches: home to Brentford and Man. City then away to Villa. United have home and away against Leeds, and home to Leicester. United could well be in the hunt for the title by that time. Arsenal didn't look good away at Everton.
They win the other half though. 40 points from 21 games. Expand that over a season it’s 72. Recent history suggests that puts them right in the mix.
21-22
Third got 74, fourth got 71
20-21
Second for 74, third got 69, fourth got 67
19-20
Third and fourth both got 66
18-19
Third got 72, fourth got 71
17-18
Third got 77, 4th got 75
16-17
third got 78, fourth got 76
15-16
Third got 70, fourth got 76
14-15
Third got 75, fourth got 70
13-14
Third got 82(!) fourth got 79
NC has collected 7 points out of 15 in their last 5 matches. So 1 win (1-0) and 4 draw. They are collecting 50% of points recently and I do expect that to stay…Reason is that teams have seen how they play and their surprise factor which was there in first half of the season is no longer there….
Assuming they keep the trend, they will finish between 65-70 points….
If we manage to take 7 of the next 9 points (two games out of 3 at home)…. I think chances of us not making top 4 will be next to nil..
And as long as Kane is fit, Spurs will make top 4 above NC….hope-he doesn’t get injured
That's what's called a loser attitude.
Wouldn't feel so frustrating if goals weren't agonisingly late on both occasions. We don't play either again now so need to do our job and keep hoping for odd favour.
Our away record needs to improve with some tough trips still to come. If we can get some wins then still a tiny chance of pushing top two.
Because one of them won’t finish top 4 if we do (Arsenal, Man City, Us), and Spurs are the least evil out of the two.
Don't worry that's only gonna happen if we do something incredible like get within 3 points of top and level on games played, 6 points and it will remain a two horse race in the media's eyes and rightly so (well if City bear Arsenal) otherwise they will go big on Arteta's to throw away.
No... It's wishing Newcastle lose while Spurs draw... It's not that hard mate.
We are thrid with 3 points anf a game in hand over 5th place Spurs. So a top 4 finish is ours to lose.
And we really need to be in the CL next year as we will probably be able to make a good run if we strengthen further in summer.
And we really need to be in the CL next year as we will probably be able to make a good run if we strengthen further in summer.
If we get six points from Leeds (I would be surprised) we are gonna do it aren’t we?
I thought you raised this comment before the red card....
Nice post Charlie. Interesting to see the points tallies.
I feel Newcastle will find it harder to replicate their 1st half form in the 2nd half of the season.
But it will be a tight finish for sure.
We only have Pool (A), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (A) and Spurs (A) that potentially can be tricky.
Arsenal still have City (A), Pool (H), City (H), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (A). That's tough.
Newcastle have City (A), United (H), Spurs (H) and Chelsea (H).
Arsenal still have City (A), Pool (H), City (H), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (A). That's tough.
Newcastle have City (A), United (H), Spurs (H) and Chelsea (H).
The tricky ones are the ones you're expected to win, especially way from home, like Brighton, Bournemouth and West Ham
Only way I would start to get just a little excited is IF (huge one) we can beat Leeds twice and Brentford get something on Saturday. Obviously 5 point gap (admittedly two more games) isn't too bad either but not close enough.
Not so worried about Bournemouth (that will backfire) but other two can cause us problems
Arsenal is away to Liverpool not home
Leeds might be tricky now they've sacked their manager!
Hoping Armas still in charge
When Frank de Boer took over in 2010 after a disastrous start of the season under Martin Jol and we were 12/13 points behind PSV he said we should consider every match a final and go for three points and not think about May and see where we would stand when we get there. I think ETH tells his squad similar things right now. Focus on the next match, get three points and we'll see what those points will be worth when the prices are given.
I think top 4 will be defined who picks up the most routine wins in games they're meant to win.
We're decent at winning games we're meant to win but not very good at winning them comfortably. We're constantly on the edge of dropping points as the two games against Palace shown, needed late winners against Wolves and Fulham etc.
Looking at the fixtures, if I calculated correctly.
United have
- 9 home games, 8 away games
- 10 against bottom half teams, 7 against top half
Newcastle have
- 8 home, 9 away
- 9 against bottom half, 8 against top half
Spurs have
- 8 home, 8 away
- 10 bottom half, 6 top half
Our fixtures are looking slightly favourable compared to Newcastle's. Spurs also have it easy.
Win all home matches and we will sit nicely on 72 points. Should be enough for top 4.
We are quite strong at home too. Fingers crossed we survive without major injuries.
Spurs like last season are utterly unconvincing but like last year i expect them to finish fairly strongly and sort of creep in. Utd are not home and dry yet by a long stretch but Chelsea and Liverpool do look done. Its 2 out of Spurs, Utd and Newcastle for me.
Hugo Lloris ruled out for at least six weeks with knee ligament injury.
Incredibly their backup is Fraser Forster! can see this putting a major dent in their hopes over the next six weeks.
Incredibly their backup is Fraser Forster! can see this putting a major dent in their hopes over the next six weeks.
Lloris has been dropping a lot of clangers so maybe overall there won't be much difference.
Forster is a lot worse
Arsenal could only get 1 point from their next 2 matches (Brentford have won the most points of anyone the last 6 matches). We should get 6 points and then the table for Arsenal and us looks like this:
Arsenal 51 (22 matches)
MU 48 (21 matches)
Game on! That would be great if the top 3 teams are within 5 points going down the stretch.
Arsenal 51 (22 matches)
MU 48 (21 matches)
Game on! That would be great if the top 3 teams are within 5 points going down the stretch.
How exactly is City home and dry ? If United are fighting for top 4 then so is City.
Highly debatable.
If we lose and are out of the EL, then top 4 will be achievable for sure.
We would have one game per week from March to May (except the FA Cup) and would be massively helpful for us.
City and Spurs have a good chance to qualify for the quarter finals of CL, where Chelsea and Pool are 50-50.
It's true that having 6 points against Leeds + the Carabao cup may be exceptionnal.
As for the games to look out ? I would say Leeds away, Brighton away, Newcastle away and Spurs away.
For the rest, even Pool away or Chelsea away it's fine because they will also lose point against other big 6
We would have one game per week from March to May (except the FA Cup) and would be massively helpful for us.
City and Spurs have a good chance to qualify for the quarter finals of CL, where Chelsea and Pool are 50-50.
It's true that having 6 points against Leeds + the Carabao cup may be exceptionnal.
As for the games to look out ? I would say Leeds away, Brighton away, Newcastle away and Spurs away.
For the rest, even Pool away or Chelsea away it's fine because they will also lose point against other big 6
Usually City would see this out and even close in on the top spot, but i do get your point based on the current situation that may change things. It could either galvanise the team to push on or send them into a tailspin. Depends a lot on how Pep handles the current scenario, their next pre match presser will be interesting.
exactly, thats why i will not be gutted if Barcelona knock us out.
Yes, but also the fact that they are very good at the moment and even if we are okay, playing well, we may not be ready yet to test these teams in Europe.
We know that Spanish side doesnt suit us, but like you I wont be gutted at all.
Thanks for the correction.
Those who didn't want spurs to win aren't looking so foolish aren't they.