For me newcastle will have to maintain better form than they did in first 40pc of the season to be in top four. I think the teams just below then are all improving after bad starts, including us. It is a bridge too far. Liverpool have been bad but klopps sides can be very streaky and they are getting players back. I'm not a big Conte believer but they will keep pressure on fourth place anyway. Chelsea look done to me, the players can already smell blood in the water I'm sure.
Race for top 4 | Finito.
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
- Start date
I don't trust neither Chelsea nor Spurs not to drop several points to weaker teams in the second half of the season with all the chaos going on at both clubs...and their squads aren't all that great either. Not to mention that Spurs have been dominated in all their top 6 games so far, getting one point out of 5 matches. Aaand they are yet to play City. 
However, I can see Liverpool getting their act together and finishing top 4, which would mean either us or Newcastle dropping out of the top 4.
We're doing well now, but sadly I won't be surprised to see us finish 5th.
However, 3rd and 4th are well within our reach due to this good run we've put together.
Either way, ten Hag is doing really well with what he has at his disposal.
However, I can see Liverpool getting their act together and finishing top 4, which would mean either us or Newcastle dropping out of the top 4.
We're doing well now, but sadly I won't be surprised to see us finish 5th.
However, 3rd and 4th are well within our reach due to this good run we've put together.Either way, ten Hag is doing really well with what he has at his disposal.
1-2 = City and Arsenal
3-4 = Man Utd and Liverpool
5-7 = Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea
3-4 = Man Utd and Liverpool
5-7 = Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea
I really think that the two coming games are massive in the chase for top 4. Thing is basically we can lose 6 points when our rivals can have 6 and already put some distances.
Let s make some maths.
Arsenal - 44 points (play Spurs and United)
City - 39 points (play United and Spurs)
Newcastle - 35 points (play Fulham and Palace)
United - 35 points (play City and Arsenal)
Spurs - 33 points (Play Arsenal and City)
Pool - 28 points (play Brighton and Chelsea)
I see after these games
Arsenal - 50 points (two wins)
Cit - 45 points (two wins)
Newcastle - 41 points (two wins)
United - 35 points (two defeats)
Pool - 34 points (two wins)
Spurs - 33 points (two defeats)
Let s make some maths.
Arsenal - 44 points (play Spurs and United)
City - 39 points (play United and Spurs)
Newcastle - 35 points (play Fulham and Palace)
United - 35 points (play City and Arsenal)
Spurs - 33 points (Play Arsenal and City)
Pool - 28 points (play Brighton and Chelsea)
I see after these games
Arsenal - 50 points (two wins)
Cit - 45 points (two wins)
Newcastle - 41 points (two wins)
United - 35 points (two defeats)
Pool - 34 points (two wins)
Spurs - 33 points (two defeats)
I don't trust neither Chelsea nor Spurs not to drop several points to weaker teams in the second half of the season with all the chaos going on at both clubs...and their squads aren't all that great either. Not to mention that Spurs have been dominated in all their top 6 games so far, getting one point out of 5 matches. Aaand they are yet to play City.
However, I can see Liverpool getting their act together and finishing top 4, which would mean either us or Newcastle dropping out of the top 4.
We're doing well now, but sadly I won't be surprised to see us finish 5th.
Either way, ten Hag is doing really well with what he has at his disposal.
We have a better manager and squad than Newcastle. Unless they buy mbappe they shouldn't be overtaking us. And they won't.
It’s in our hands to finish top 4. Aslong as we keep winning we’ll be fine. If the others keep dropping points then we’ll make top 4 quicker then we think. The pile up of fixtures won’t help though.
I think we’ll win 1 of our games against city and arsenal. Hopefully arsenal can beat spurs aswell which will help us out but that will only help us if we can beat city. Plus we have a game in hand over Newcastle and spurs which is against palace so that’s a must win.
We’re absolutely primed to play a top team after having mostly “easy” fixtures since the restart. Excited to see how we do, a win vs City will do wonders for confidence. We’ve beaten Arsenal already so no issues regarding that game. Just worried our legs will fall off.
Yes, but it isn't as simple as that.
This is a fair representation of what could happen. Which is why all these title talks are way out of place.
I feel Liverpool even though are not playing well now, have what it takes, they are like the old United, who just get the job done in these situations.
Newcastle will be there as they need top 4 to attract the right kind of players. If we go into a downward spiral after the two loses, we might be in trouble.
United are not nailed on for a top 4 as this moment. We might need to go on a 10-12 game run post City and Arsenal to get back in to the groove and we are also yet to play Liverpool at Anfield.
Fingers crossed, we win both. The mood in here would be amazing!
I thought we have Palace game in between City and Arsenal?
We are 7 points ahead of Liverpool and level with Newcastle but have a game in hand on them. Our 2nd half of the season won't include playing City or Arsenal (well, technically it will have Arsenal now that the Palace game got shoved in between City/Arsenal), but generally it's a much easier fixture list than others because the 2 best teams in the league are replaced by playing Palace and Leeds twice.I don't trust neither Chelsea nor Spurs not to drop several points to weaker teams in the second half of the season with all the chaos going on at both clubs...and their squads aren't all that great either. Not to mention that Spurs have been dominated in all their top 6 games so far, getting one point out of 5 matches. Aaand they are yet to play City.
However, I can see Liverpool getting their act together and finishing top 4, which would mean either us or Newcastle dropping out of the top 4.
We're doing well now, but sadly I won't be surprised to see us finish 5th.
Either way, ten Hag is doing really well with what he has at his disposal.
Our records vs each group based on 538's league rankings:
Our record vs the big 7 (City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, United, Chelsea, Spurs): 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss - 1.83 ppg
Our record vs the mid 6 (Brighton, Villa, West Ham, Brentford, Leicester, Fulham): 3 wins, 3 losses - 1.5 ppg
Record vs the bottom 7 (Bournemouth, Forest, Everton, Southampton, Wolves, Leeds, Palace): 5 wins - 3 ppg
After the Arsenal game, so last 18 games of the season, we'll have:
Big 7 - 4 games (1 home, 3 away - Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs)
Mid 6 - 6 games (4 home, 2 away - Brighton, West Ham)
Bottom 7 - 8 games (5 home, 3 away - Bournemouth, Forest, Leeds)
Until this period, we have City home, Palace away, Arsenal away. But that's a last 18 that has 10 games at Old Trafford, mostly against the bottom half of the league. Even just keeping our current points per game average per group, we'd get another 40 points in the 2nd half of the season, bringing us to 75 points before even taking into account these next 3 games. We're in a great position to get 3rd even, especially due to the fixture list in the 2nd half of the season, being mostly against easier sides, and with only the big games being away from home and the easy games being all at home.
Even if we hit a roadblock in the next 3 games, we are still in a great position for the last 18 games here being very generous the way they're scheduled, so many being at home and especially the bottom half being at home where it's much more comfortable to get a win.
I think we could do with dropping out of the Europa quickly. The Thursday fixtures will kill us , particularly in league games we should be winning and always the extra chance of injuries. I think we should go in hard on the Carabou and Fa cups though, a lot of big teams are out now and a trophy on any sort is needed.
Play the next game and concentrate on that - rotate where needed and trust the process…..don’t bank on others dropping points and don’t pick and choose where you think points will be won or lost. Then you will have a successful season, my son…..
Yeah, not bothered about being knocked out by Barca. It's another 9 games to qualify for the champions league by that route and there are several other sides in there that might beat us anyway. Top 4 is a clearer way in.
yep, this, if we were in Chelsea's position at this time it would be a different argument but we are in a nice position now and if the squad can be managed and injuries somehow avoided we should be ok for at least top 4. BTW i would not like to be putting money on Arsenal, i few bad results coupled with Arteta meltdowns and i think they could drop like a stone.
Frustrating we aren't going to have time to improve our forward line before City game,ah well Garnacho and Elanga off the bench it is
Yet still in that scenario we'd be top 4 with one game less than newcastle and already having played the top 2 teams twice. It would certainly kill any title hopes but top 4 would be pretty much still available.
Rashford might be useful up top against City anyways, now that we can actually move the ball forward at times consistently in possession as opposed to just through the lines. The game will probably show that we need another #8 though, in addition to Eriksen, unless guys like Antony, Shaw, Dalot and Casemiro have a stormer and create turnovers with City having most of the ball.
Because ideally, Rashford could play the 9 for the last half hour, but probably Eriksen will have to be hauled off or he'll fade and then are we sure we're good enough on the ball with Fred there?
I bet he'll be needed badly in one of the 2 Palace games.
Oh yeah Saturday will show we need a number 8
@Isafim you've been outed as a Liverpool fan in a separate thread, so don't try peddling that "I'm a United fan and this is why I don't rate Rashford's finishing" over here. Rashford is 10 times the finisher Darwin Nunez is.
Klopp suggested no more signings for them. This is great, their midfield is McFred level at times.
The only top 8 team we're yet to take points off is Brighton . Of course, we've played them once only.
. Of course, we've played them once only.Liverpool out the race or too early?
we beat Palace we will 12 point ahead of them and this not your usual top 4 race either where in the past few years ylthe 4th place battle has been between teams that have little consistency, we look more like challenging for the title than struggling for top 4 and Newcastle have a game in hand of Liverpool and they have looked great defensively so far this season
we beat Palace we will 12 point ahead of them and this not your usual top 4 race either where in the past few years ylthe 4th place battle has been between teams that have little consistency, we look more like challenging for the title than struggling for top 4 and Newcastle have a game in hand of Liverpool and they have looked great defensively so far this season
We should be top 4 but there's a lingering worry that fixture congestion and/or injuries will put us in a slump at some point.
Annoyingly we're in such a good position but still not that far ahead of Newcastle or Spurs. 3 ahead of Newcastle and 5 ahead of Spurs, we're only ever a run of 2 or 3 poor results from being a bad position.
Annoyingly we're in such a good position but still not that far ahead of Newcastle or Spurs. 3 ahead of Newcastle and 5 ahead of Spurs, we're only ever a run of 2 or 3 poor results from being a bad position.
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Top 4 and a domestic cup should be amazing. I'm starting to want more.
I’m expecting Spurs to win tomorrow. Arsenal going eight points clear on their watch won’t be very appealing to them. There will be plenty of other games for Spurs to drop points in so it’s all good.
Early in the season I viewed the Europa as a priority but now like others have said its a hindrance given we look more than capable of winning a domestic trophy and getting top 4.
ETH won't throw it away though, he clearly wants to win everything he's in and I respect that because that's exactly the sort of manager we have needed.
ETH won't throw it away though, he clearly wants to win everything he's in and I respect that because that's exactly the sort of manager we have needed.
I'm less concerned about injuries than I was, Shaw as a CB can free up Martinez to play as a DM if Casemiro gets injured, that was the biggest fear, AWb has also proved a more than adequate back up at RB and Malacia at LB, Fred's form has been so good so some MF concerns are gone, Eriksen can play Bruno's role and the front 3 are going to rotate frequently
Fixture congestion can be a good thing, it generally means the team are doing well
Still feels surreal to see us 1 point behind city. Last time this happened they had a ton of games in hand.
Yeah a bit too early I think. Although I only really say that because of recent history where they seem to eventually get their act together. Hopefully this time it is different. Also, a win over Palace would put us 13 points clear of them.
Liverpool’s fixture list over the next 8-10 weeks is absolutely horrid.
Not looking like much of a race this.
Top four will be determined by squad depth I reckon. We are too reliant on Rashford right now.
I'm more wound up by the draw against Newcastle
Can't agree with this, the EL isn't just a pathway to the CL, it's a prestigious trophy in it's own right that we should be fighting hard for.
Take things one game at a time and trust the manager to rotate when needed.
I think we'll finish in the top 4 quite comfortably. I was most worried about Liverpool as competitors and they look cooked. We've pulled clear of Spurs and I'm hopeful we'll do the same to Newcastle as the season goes on.
Delighted to hear that.
I would be too, but Chelsea are fecking shite. Newcastle are a legit top 4 threat.
We really should be on 40 points, can’t believe we didn’t get penalty against new castle