I've compiled some stats for the most frequently mentioned CM targets (from fbref.com), as well as for Fred and McTominay.
The stats go into three different categories, to judge three different aspects of the players:
- GREEN - attacking contribution. These are: Expected goals+ expected assist pr. 90 minutes played, Shot creatin actions/90 and Touches in attacking 3rd of the pitch/90.
- BLUE - defensive and pressing contribution. These are: Pass completion, Presses/90, success rate of presses and Tackles+Interceptions/90
- ORANGE - ability to move the ball forward. These are: Progressive passing distance/90, progressive passes/90, Touches/90 and Progressive carries/90.
Of course you can argue the selection of stats, but I think these give a reasonable basis without being too complex. Looking at the yields some interesting and in part unexpected observations I think.
Fred, and to a lesser degree Mctominay, aren't so easy to improve upon as many think, on the basis of these stats. Across all three categories, Fred is actually one of the best players in this group. McTominay is more in the lower end, but he is equal to or better than several of the players talked about as upgrades.
OFFENSIVELY Locatelli and Llorente are the two players who offer more than Fred, while Kessie is comparable. Rice, Arambarri and Kamara are all statistically significantly worse than McTominay in these three offensive categories.
PROGRESSING THE BALL: The only player significantly better than Fred or McTominay in these categories is Locatelli, who is really,
really good. Kessie, Rice, Llorente and Arambarri are all considerably to greatly worse than McFred at moving the ball forward.
DEFENSIVELY/PRESSING: Fred actually has better stats here than any of the other players. Camavinga and Kamara are closest. Kessie and Rice are slightly weaker than McTominay, while Llorente and Arambarri are much weaker.
| 90s | xg+xa/90 | cmp% | PrgDist | PrgDist/90 | Prog | Prog/90 | SCA90 | ta3 | ta3/90 | Presses | Pr/90 | Press % | Tkl+Int | T+I/90 | Touches | To/90 | Prog ca. | PC/90 |
Eduardo Camavinga | 25,7 | 0,11 | 89,1 | 4914 | 191,2 | 90 | 3,5 | 1,56 | 410,0 | 16,0 | 597 | 23,2 | 28,8 | 126 | 4,9 | 1851 | 72,0 | 163 | 6,3 |
Franck Kessie | 34,8 | 0,42 | 89,1 | 8081 | 232,2 | 123 | 3,5 | 2,18 | 488,0 | 14,0 | 513,0 | 14,7 | 29,6 | 106 | 3,0 | 2386 | 68,6 | 165 | 4,7 |
Fred | 26,6 | 0,17 | 88,2 | 7561 | 284,2 | 149 | 5,6 | 2,52 | 454,0 | 17,1 | 639 | 24,0 | 31,3 | 135 | 5,1 | 2092 | 78,6 | 116 | 4,4 |
Manuel Locatelli | 31 | 0,25 | 87,6 | 13093 | 422,4 | 259 | 8,4 | 2,74 | 561 | 18,1 | 443,0 | 14,3 | 30,0 | 123 | 4,0 | 3052 | 98,5 | 181 | 5,8 |
McTominay | 23,7 | 0,13 | 87,3 | 5711 | 241,0 | 104 | 4,4 | 1,4 | 334 | 14,1 | 348 | 14,7 | 30,7 | 99 | 4,2 | 1581 | 66,7 | 125 | 5,3 |
Boubakar Kamara | 31,2 | 0,06 | 87,2 | 9367 | 300,2 | 143 | 4,6 | 1,99 | 284,0 | 9,1 | 513,0 | 16,4 | 34,9 | 127 | 4,1 | 2347 | 75,2 | 126 | 4,0 |
Declan Rice | 31 | 0,14 | 86,4 | 5966 | 192,5 | 93 | 3,0 | 1,58 | 322,0 | 10,4 | 473 | 15,3 | 30,2 | 142 | 4,6 | 1758 | 56,7 | 162 | 5,2 |
Ruben Neves | 28,7 | 0,25 | 84,3 | 8042 | 280,2 | 130 | 4,5 | 2,12 | 376,0 | 13,1 | 560,0 | 19,5 | 33,4 | 130 | 4,5 | 2231 | 77,7 | 117 | 4,1 |
Marcos Llorente | 32 | 0,29 | 82,2 | 4153 | 129,8 | 93 | 2,9 | 2,35 | 655,0 | 20,5 | 633,0 | 19,8 | 29,5 | 104 | 3,3 | 1680 | 52,5 | 153 | 4,8 |
Mauro Arambarri | 33,1 | 0,13 | 70,1 | 4295 | 129,8 | 88 | 2,7 | 1,63 | 452,0 | 13,7 | 744,0 | 22,5 | 25,7 | 129 | 3,9 | 1470 | 44,4 | 100 | 3,0 |
Player by player:
FRED Statistically speaking, Fred is very near top of this group across the three categories, placing very high in all three of them. xg+xa/90 and progressive carries/90 are really the only categories where his stats are in the weaker end.
MCTOMINAY is smack in the middle of the group. Offensive contribution, which is lower-end, is his weakest area, while he compares well with most of the other players in defence/pressing and, surprisingly, in his ability to progress the ball. The main negative thing to note is he's not near the top of the group in any individual stat. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and presses/90.
CAMAVINGA is in the top segment in defensive and pressing, very solid in ball progression, but not impactful in the attacking categories. His best categories are pass completion, presses/90, tackles+interceptions/90 and progressive carries/90. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90 and progressive distance in passing/90.
KESSIE is good to okay across all three categories. Offensive contribution is his best. His best stats are xg+xa/90 (where he outperforms everyone else by a considerable distance), and pass completion. His weakest are successful presses and tackles + interceptions/90.
LOCATELLI is the standout player for ball progression, near the top offensively and okay defensively. His standout stats are progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90 and touches/90 (where he hugely outperformed everyone else) as well as shot creating actions/90, where he's very significantly ahead of everybody but Fred (who is close). He is also very good in pass completion, touches in offensive 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90. His main weakness is pressing (fewer presses/90 than any of the others), and tackles + interceptions/90, where he's close to the bottom.
KAMARA is certainly not an all-round contributor, judging from the stats. He brings very little offensively, but is very good progressing the ball and among the best defensively. His success rate in pressing is the best of all these players. His other best areas are progressive distance/90 and progressive passes/90. The weak areas are a bit more numerous: He has by far the lowest xg+xa/90, at an almost non-existent 0,06, and touches in the attacking 3rd/90 (9,1). Doesn't bring much in shot creating actions/90 or progressive carries/90 either.
RICE does not look good at all from these stats - Okay defensively, but definitely lower end both in attacking contribution and in terms of progressing the ball. In fact, he looks a good deal weaker than both Fred and McTominay, pretty much across the board. That may illustrate the limitations of (these) stats, but on the other hand it's hard to find in this any support for why we'd spend 70 million or more on him. His numbers aren't really high end for any stat. His biggest weak areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, shot-creating actions/90, touches in the attacking 3rd/90, Presses/90 and Touches/90.
NEVES comes over as OK in attacking contribution, and very good in ball progression and defence/pressing. He's neither top or bottom in anything. He's best areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, success rate of pressing and touches/90. His weakest areas are touches in the attacking 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90.
LLORENTE looks like arguably the best offensive player of them all, but is very weak in progressing the ball and offers little defensively. His best stats are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and touches in the attacking 3rd/90. His weakest areas are Touches/90 (the fewest of all players listed here), pass completion, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, Presses/90, success rate of presses and tackles+interceptions/90.
ARAMBARRI is just awful, ranking at or near the bottom across all three categories, often by a very substantial margin. His only strong stat is really presses/90. I won't even bother to list his weak ones, they are most of the rest.
Those are just the main outlines of what these stats appear to indicate, lots more could of course be said in interpreting them, adding to them, explaining them, contradicting them or adding context to them (f.e. the connection between Neves' outlook and how Wolves play). But briefly in conclusion:
1. LET'S GET LOCATELLI!
Not only does he look like the best player in this selection, he also has as some of his best traits the same things that are Fred's worst traits. Excellent offensively, elite in ball progression and perfectly okay defensively. Put him beside Fred or McTominay, and things will look good.
2. If it's really a DM we want, it's Camavinga or Kamara. Preferably the former, who at 18 will have more all-round potential.
3. Other than Locatelli, Llorente and Kessie has the most to offer if we're looking for someone to step into the role we'd hoped Pogba would fill as a no 8, and deliver attacking impact. But they both offer limited input to other aspects of the game, and Llorente looks like a friggin defensive liability, and a complete non-factor in transition play. We can't have that in our midfield pivot. What I like best about Kessie is his absurdly good xg+xa/90.
4. Whatever we do, please don't spend 70 or even 50m on Declan Rice, or buy Mauro Arambarri at all.