PL L FA Premier League

Manchester United 1:2 Norwich City

Post-match discussion


Sat, 19 December 2015

Michael Caley's expected goal (xG) model says this:

CWmzw3AUAAAb-5Y.png

What is this??
 
Decided not to watch today, and had a good laugh when I looked up the result. What an embarrassment this season has become.

Will not be watching the next match either.
Keep us posted
 
Anyway, they always say you can't beat the Canaries at this time of year.
 
Yesterday wasn't our worst performance but typically we got hit on the break. It just seems, our final ball isn't there and nothing bounces for us. It seems opponents always make the clearer chance and more often then not take it. I think that's because there are no respecter of reputations in England. Perhaps on another day we win, but I've seen nothing from LVG to suggest he can change it.
 
Yesterday wasn't our worst performance but typically we got hit on the break. It just seems, our final ball isn't there and nothing bounces for us. It seems opponents always make the clearer chance and more often then not take it. I think that's because there are no respecter of reputations in England. Perhaps on another day we win, but I've seen nothing from LVG to suggest he can change it.
There is nothing to respect. Teams let us have possession as we don't create anything with it. They know they can steal it from us before we get into dangerous positions.
 
What is this??
Expected goal models in general evaluate the actual shots taken in a match and draw the expected scoreline from them based on the quality rather than quantity of shots.
Every single shot gets a value based on its individual characteristics; that's the big difference to rather simplistic stats like number of shots or number of shots on target. Michael Caley pulls those images from in depth Opta data, having all sorts of characteristics assigned to every shot.

The image shows where shots were taken, and the bigger the square, the more likely a shot to find its way into the net. The rough sums show that your chances were better than Newcastle's (0.7 > 0.4) but hardly made up for one United goal while Newcastle overperformed massively with scoring 2.

The model takes ten thousands of shots and their characteristics into account, e.g. location, body part, situation of shot (open play, direct free kick, crossed free kick, shot after throw-in etc), type of assist to the shot (cross, through ball, regular pass, rebound etc), speed of attack, shot off a successful dribble etc.
 
Expected goal models in general evaluate the actual shots taken in a match and draw the expected scoreline from them based on the quality rather than quantity of shots.
Every single shot gets a value based on its individual characteristics; that's the big difference to rather simplistic stats like number of shots or number of shots on target. Michael Caley pulls those images from in depth Opta data, having all sorts of characteristics assigned to every shot.

The image shows where shots were taken, and the bigger the square, the more likely a shot to find its way into the net. The rough sums show that your chances were better than Newcastle's (0.7 > 0.4) but hardly made up for one United goal while Newcastle overperformed massively with scoring 2.

The model takes ten thousands of shots and their characteristics into account, e.g. location, body part, situation of shot (open play, direct free kick, crossed free kick, shot after throw-in etc), type of assist to the shot (cross, through ball, regular pass, rebound etc), speed of attack, shot off a successful dribble etc.

Wow....thats rocket science at its best!
 
Same. I genuinely believe opposition teams let us keep the lion's share of possession as they know we'll do nothing with it and they can just hit us on the break. There is no "possession battle" as the commentators like to call it.

Of course they do. It’s starting to be a common trend in the Premier League against the big boys. Lesser teams tend to sit back and wait for a 2 or 3 chances that will fall to them. Every team knows we create very little so they double on Martial and the rest is easy to deal with, so the most probable scenario is another goalless draw, what probably satisfies most of our opponents (or not anymore?).

The question is how can you fix this? How do you convince the opposition to come at you? Klopp is a manager who prefers counter attacking football and guess what, Liverpool had 66% possession today and lost 3-0.

Maybe another manager will fix this but I doubt there will be a major difference with the same crop of players.
 
I can't quite believe that teams want the other to have the ball, is it more likely everyone (apart from us) wants to get it forward quickly & the stats reflect this rather than it being a deliberate strategy. All about the order of the cart & the horse, innit.
 
Teams have resorted to letting us have the lion's share of the ball and hitting us on the counter. Unfortunately it's working and Norwich made it look unnervingly simple.
 
That is quite simply embarrassing glory hunting shite. Even if your team is playing badly a true fan would still have the backbone to watch and cheer on his team. At least then any criticism they made would be based on an honestly formed opinion. I often wonder what 'supporters' of this ilk would be like if their team were one of most of the other 91 teams in the English leagues.

Oh dear, I'm not a 'true fan' in your expert opinion...how shall I possibly go on and live another day...

Maybe you've got the patience to watch a shitty product every weekend, and enough free time to earmark some of it for something that you know could very easily, and most likely these days, wind up frustrating you, but I don't. Sports aren't important enough to me to warrant living and dying with the club every weekend. You talk about being a 'true fan' like it's some badge of courage or like it affords you some kind of unique distinction or benefits beyond what a casual fan would get at the end of the day, but it isn't, and it doesn't, so get over yourself.

The problem with diehard fans, especially when you're dealing with an organization that is perennially profitable and successful from a marketing perspective regardless of the results on the field, is that they create an environment in which the 'team' doesn't have to perform well in order for the 'organization' to achieve its ultimate goal, i.e. profitability and revenue generation. This can easily lead to the team becoming stagnant, because those in charge know that on the business side of things, the club is still going to generate millions in profits because they fans will turn out and buy the gear whether the team is great or shitty. A perfect example of this here in America has been the Chicago Cubs.

Ask yourself, what's the one and only way the fans can make their voices heard if they're not happy with the product on the field? Stop going to matches, stop watching them on TV, stop buying kits, etc.
 
On holiday for 2 weeks so didn't see the game and by the sound of it not worth watching.
Thought after the Everton game we were close to a very good team but things seem to be going backwards.
We've been unlucky with injuries but now 3 defeats in a row is not acceptable especially when two of those defeats are against Bournemouth and Norwich.
Do not like constantly changes managers but if they will get rid of LvG, they should do it now so any new faces brought in in January would fit in with a new manager's style.
Think LvG has underestimated the current PL and that all the teams are so competitive and you need a big squad to cope with the games and injuries and even the form of players , we are clearly short up front and another defender wouldn't go amiss; we can't rely on youth as they are inconsistent
 
Oh dear, I'm not a 'true fan' in your expert opinion...how shall I possibly go on and live another day...

Maybe you've got the patience to watch a shitty product every weekend, and enough free time to earmark some of it for something that you know could very easily, and most likely these days, wind up frustrating you, but I don't. Sports aren't important enough to me to warrant living and dying with the club every weekend. You talk about being a 'true fan' like it's some badge of courage or like it affords you some kind of unique distinction or benefits beyond what a casual fan would get at the end of the day, but it isn't, and it doesn't, so get over yourself.

The problem with diehard fans, especially when you're dealing with an organization that is perennially profitable and successful from a marketing perspective regardless of the results on the field, is that they create an environment in which the 'team' doesn't have to perform well in order for the 'organization' to achieve its ultimate goal, i.e. profitability and revenue generation. This can easily lead to the team becoming stagnant, because those in charge know that on the business side of things, the club is still going to generate millions in profits because they fans will turn out and buy the gear whether the team is great or shitty. A perfect example of this here in America has been the Chicago Cubs.

Ask yourself, what's the one and only way the fans can make their voices heard if they're not happy with the product on the field? Stop going to matches, stop watching them on TV, stop buying kits, etc.
There's a term for people like you...bandwagon jumper. I know because I jump onto the bandwagon whenever the Detroit Tigers are doing well but hop right off when they suck. :nervous:

When it comes to United though I'll always watch them. No matter what. :angel::devil:
 
There's a term for people like you...bandwagon jumper. I know because I jump onto the bandwagon whenever the Detroit Tigers are doing well but hop right off when they suck. :nervous:

When it comes to United though I'll always watch them. No matter what. :angel::devil:

I'm 33 years old, I've been a fan of United since I was about 10. Does that mean that I watch all 38 matches every season? No, not a chance. Even if I wanted to, life gets in the way sometimes. Last season I wanna say I watched 33 of the 38 EPL matches, the season before that (when we were awful) probably around 30. This season I've watched all 8 CL matches and I'd say 12 of the 17 EPL matches, but then again I have a lot more going on this year than I've had in years past. My weekends are precious to me and making 2hrs to sit in front of the TV on a Saturday morning means I have to sacrifice something else. When United have been a fun team to watch this season, I've made those sacrifices and tuned in. Now that they've hit a really bad streak, I'm prioritizing other things.

I don't see why that's so difficult to accept for some.
 
I'm 33 years old, I've been a fan of United since I was about 10. Does that mean that I watch all 38 matches every season? No, not a chance. Even if I wanted to, life gets in the way sometimes. Last season I wanna say I watched 33 of the 38 EPL matches, the season before that (when we were awful) probably around 30. This season I've watched all 8 CL matches and I'd say 12 of the 17 EPL matches, but then again I have a lot more going on this year than I've had in years past. My weekends are precious to me and making 2hrs to sit in front of the TV on a Saturday morning means I have to sacrifice something else. When United have been a fun team to watch this season, I've made those sacrifices and tuned in. Now that they've hit a really bad streak, I'm prioritizing other things.

I don't see why that's so difficult to accept for some.
Dude, you don't need to justify yourself to anybody. :)
I agree. No need for the justification. Who cares what other people think anyway? Support United how you want to. I know it seems like I was attacking you Todd but I was just pointing out my observation and the fact that I'm just as guilty (probably not the right word to use here) when it comes to other sporting teams that I follow.
 
Watched the match back yesterday on MUTV, think it was obvious on reflection where our problems are;

* We take too long to get the ball into the two wingers and the centre forward. By the time they do get it they are always two against one and more often than not back to goal
* Nobody from deep ever runs past the forwards/wingers, so there is hardly any movement which makes the opposition turn and face their own goal
* Rooney. Need I say any more?
* The most damning - we were at home against a team in the bottom three, and yet including De Gea, 7 of the 11 players on the pitch were picked with the primary function of defending rather than attacking

I would suggest that in order for us to win this kind of game, we should get the two wingers high and wide, drop a CM (or a CB if you feel certain you are superior to the opposition) and pick two centre forwards and ask the full backs to get up in support of the wide players.

Might sound cavalier but we are facing teams who have no attacking ambitions whatsoever and who thrash it aimlessly forward as soon as they get the ball
 

Player Ratings

4.6 Total Average Rating

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Lowest Rated Player

Compiled from 416 ratings.

Score Predictions

552,50,164
  • Man Utd win
  • Norwich win
  • Draw

Detailed Results

  • 26% Man Utd 2:0 Norwich
  • 18% Man Utd 1:0 Norwich
  • 16% Man Utd 0:0 Norwich
  • 11% Man Utd 3:0 Norwich
  • 7% Man Utd 2:1 Norwich
  • 5% Man Utd 1:1 Norwich
  • 4% Man Utd 4:0 Norwich
  • 3% Man Utd 0:1 Norwich
  • 3% Man Utd 3:1 Norwich
  • 2% Man Utd 5:0 Norwich
  • 2% Man Utd 1:2 Norwich
  • 1% Man Utd 0:2 Norwich
  • 1% Man Utd 4:1 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 3:2 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 1:3 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 0:3 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 3:4 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 0:5 Norwich
  • 0% Man Utd 5:4 Norwich
Compiled from 766 predictions.
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Match Stats

  1. Man Utd
  2. Norwich
Possession
69% 31%
Shots
11 6
Shots on Target
2 4
Corners
11 0
Fouls
4 10

Referee

Michael Oliver