[justsomebloke]

But here's the thing, that sequence started with us having a throw in in our half. We then passed it to Bruno who went on the side, and then we pushed the ball forward. We went from left to right, from Malacia to Antony, didn't let Arsenal have a touch on the ball once and after 10 passes, we got the ball back to De Gea.

We did not stop their attack. In fact, we stopped our own attack, and we went back with another one to score. So maybe we countered ourselves then according to your definition, but we did not counter Arsenal, they had no attack for 10 passes, and after that, it took us 8 touches to get to another goal.

Whatever you're talking about here, it's not our second goal. Because that started with Dalot picking up a loose Arsenal pass in our own half. You can see it on the clip further up in the discussion.

 

[largelyworried]

Probability doesn't win games. Finishing, agility, anticipation, shooting, heading and positioning are skills that do. A team can be better at shooting from distance, better at floating crosses, driving through the middle or the flanks. On the other end of this, a defense also has skills that make it more difficult for shots, chances and getting in the box are more difficult. Some teams defend better in the box, some prefer are better at completely shutting opponents out of the box, some prefer to let them play on the flanks, others prefer shut them out of it. xG + xA does not truly take strategy and ability into account, and therefore is pretty useless when analyzing a game on its own.

Pretty evident you don't understand how xG works based on this comment.

 

[justsomebloke]

Yeah he was a handful yesterday but it was his cup final so I’m not surprised

He's been great all season.

 

[Nevilles.Wear.Prada]

I always underestimated managers influence on the teams mentality. Probably taking the mentality aspect for granted due to SAF. The team appears to follow managers image assured, relentless and direct. Time to make Old Trafford a fortress once again. Teams were beaten before coming to play once. They were so defensive due to the fear of wallopings. We need those back again first and foremost.

 

[sglowrider]

 

[red woppit]

I missed it because my other half had arranged a pissing dog walk with her friends that apparently I was required at. Ffs

That's a bit 'ruff' mate.

 

[Pickle85]

That's a bit 'ruff' mate.

ffs.

 

[Stobzilla]

Iove JJ.

 

[Tincanalley]

They were amazing in attack & ball retention but their defensive structure was too open to being ripped up. This was their position for the third goal:


7 Arsenal players chasing the ball held by 1 United player. Some of those players were in overlapping positions blocking one another. They lost the plot after the second goal went in.

You’ve just discovered that goal three was offside

 

[bringbackbebe]

You’ve just discovered that goal three was offside

The camera angle isn't parallel to the pitch. White is actually sticking his head out in front of Rashford.

 

[Berbasbullet]

The camera angle isn't parallel to the pitch. White is actually sticking his head out in front of Rashford.

This ball didnt go to Rashford.

 

[bringbackbebe]

This ball didnt go to Rashford.

Correct, that as well but rule states:
Being in an offside position is not an offence in itself, but a player so positioned when the ball is played by a teammate can be judged guilty of an offside offence if they receive the ball or will otherwise become "involved in active play", will "interfere with an opponent", or will "gain an advantage" by being in that position.

Anyway, this is not a discussion we should be having.

 

[Bestietom]

Great result.

 

[sparx99]

Fantastic result, and in combination with the struggles of several other big 6 teams, leaves us in a position few (certainly not I) would have imagined just 4 rounds ago.

So, where are we really now? We've become a team that's very hard to score against - just 2 goals against in 4 games - and those were by the 2nd and 4th highest scoring teams in the league. We work hard. We're deadly on the break. Ronaldo sits on the bench every game and stands up and applauds when someone else scores. We're improving a little every game, pretty much across the board.

On the other hand. We really don't have much of an offensive game, other than quick breaks. Our xG is a measly 9th AND we underscore it. We're 9th in goals scored too - 8 in 6 games. And there were long stretches today when I was thinking that we were outclassed. We had nothing like the fluid attacking game that Arsenal did, and except for the first 12-13 minutes and after our second goal, they looked by far the better team.

In short - it feels and looks very much like we're back at peak early Ole. I'll take that gladly, as long as the results and the improvements keep coming in, and as long as we eventually evolve into a team capable of more dominant offensive football. It doesn't feel like a stretch to expect that, it's the kind of football we know EtH wants and is able to implement after all. But we're not a top team yet I think.

I do agree it feels a bit like peak Ole. The big difference i’d say is that a few of our goals have screamed ETH. The 1st goal against Liverpool where they played a 1-2 on the edge of the box and then the 1st and 3rd goals today just had a movement and skill we wouldn’t see under Ole.

 

[justsomebloke]

But by that definition almost all goals are counter attacks if a team doesn’t score from their own dead ball. That’s far too broad to mean anything.
The Arsenal players plays such a nothing ball that nobody is out of position. Both teams are fully set in their structures and Dalot has the ball at RB with literally every player bar David in front of him. Just because Eriksen plays the same ball he played as he did with the first goal when there was 10 or so passes before that pass surely can’t mean it’s a counter. Pause that when Dalot has the ball and call it a counter, it just doesn’t make sense. The idea of counter attack then becomes meaningless. Is a through ball picked up by David who takes his time and plays it out to Eriksen in the same situation a counter? What would the difference be?
If that’s a counter then 99 percent of goals are counters.

This really isn't that complicated. A counterattack is when you win the ball and then shift quickly to attack, attempting to progress to a finish more or less as quickly as possible and through only a few passes. This obviously doesn't mean that any attack is a counterattack. Most attacks are not like this - more frequently regaining the ball is followed by a more measured approach where you pass the ball around for a bit sideways or backwards while you move players up.

The difference between the two goals, as you point out yourself, is that the second the attack starts from regaining the ball. The fact that we had played 10 or so passes before Eriksen makes the breakthrough is exactly the reason why the first goal isn't a counterattack. The defender's posture can be more or less vulnerable, in this case less vulnerable (though you exaggerate - there are several United players behind Dalot, and Arsenal, having just lost the ball, is obviously not in a defensive posture, though they are also not badly overcommitted or out of position), but that is irrelevant to whether or not this is a counterattack.

 

[justsomebloke]

I do agree it feels a bit like peak Ole. The big difference i’d say is that a few of our goals have screamed ETH. The 1st goal against Liverpool where they played a 1-2 on the edge of the box and then the 1st and 3rd goals today just had a movement and skill we wouldn’t see under Ole.

I think we saw quite a lot of exactly that under Ole?

 

[Tarrou]

No point at all really.

As I say, Foster said as much and I'd take the word of a professional player over these things.

Odd thing to say. Do you take issue with professional gamblers / fantasy football players using it for some reason?

 

[MancFanFromManc]

I've been in Devon with the fam for the last 4 matches... If y'all want to have a whip round and send me back there until next May, we'll be fine with that...

 

[fergieisold]

Correct, that as well but rule states:
Being in an offside position is not an offence in itself, but a player so positioned when the ball is played by a teammate can be judged guilty of an offside offence if they receive the ball or will otherwise become "involved in active play", will "interfere with an opponent", or will "gain an advantage" by being in that position.

Anyway, this is not a discussion we should be having.

Are you actually suggesting there is an argument the goal was offside?

 

[bringbackbebe]

Are you actually suggesting there is an argument the goal was offside?

post got hijacked. I was pointing to Arsenal's clueless positioning while defending.

 

[DevilRed]

Its the gooners ffs.

Literally get smashed by us every year, whether we're shit or not.

They still haven't got the basics of defending down, despite arteta bringing in 69 defenders over the course of his tenure.

 

[Champ]

Odd thing to say. Do you take issue with professional gamblers / fantasy football players using it for some reason?

Not at all,

But I'd be interested to see how expected goals would assist a gambler? I don't t gamble myself so not an expert on such matters.
But as far as I am aware, expected goals is a post event stat, so wouldn't be helpful in real time, and also isn't so helpful taking it game by game anyway, it's only useful to anyone over the course of a season.
So I'd struggle to see how someone could use it for gambling or fantasy football anyhow?

 

[sparx99]

If that’s the case, Arsenal’s goal was a counterattack.
I haven’t heard one person mention that they scored on the counterattack.

The entire philosophy around gegenpressing was to instigate counter attacks high up the field. This was because stats showed most goals are scored quickly after losing possession. Counter attacking is weirdly held up as some sort of anti-purist football yet it’s at the heart of one of the most important tactics of the last decade.

 

[Chief123]

I'm actually delighted Arsenal had a full strength team. Otherwise we'd never hear the end of their excuses!

We still don't have our best XI fully match fit yet. Martial, Casemiro and Antony fully fit yet to come.

 

[mshnsh]

 

[sparx99]

I think we saw quite a lot of exactly that under Ole?

I’m not sure there was ever much of an attacking plan with Ole. The goal against Liverpool with a quick 1-2 and then a low cross is different to me.

Fast breaks under Ole we’re obviously a thing but the run from Eriksen today was different in my opinion. Maybe it was just opportunistic but i don’t think under Ole one of our CM’s is looking to run in behind, vacate the midfield, when we are defending a 1-goal lead.

 

[largelyworried]

I can't think of any meaningful reason a team would use xG.

It becomes useful when analysing the game if you're interested in the delta between xG and the actual results, for things like fantasy football, gambling or just us fans discussing what is going on.

But a team actually using it? There's no point, is there?

Don't think I understand this comment. You're saying you can't think of any use for data telling a coach about the quality of chances his team is creating?

 

[Tarrou]

Not at all,

But I'd be interested to see how expected goals would assist a gambler? I don't t gamble myself so not an expert on such matters.
But as far as I am aware, expected goals is a post event stat, so wouldn't be helpful in real time, and also isn't so helpful taking it game by game anyway, it's only useful to anyone over the course of a season.
So I'd struggle to see how someone could use it for gambling or fantasy football anyhow?

Right so basically you had no clue but said it was useless anyway because why not.

In FPL for example, you could use xG to spot variations between form and points, to get ahead of the curve. In layman terms, it can show you where players are getting unlucky and buy them before the luck evens out, they start performing better in points and the hoards jump on the bandwagon.

Gambling is a lot more complicated, and the margins are much thinner nowadays. But going back 10 years ago when I was a professional gambler it, xG (or similar concepts) were useful for the exact same reason (most notably on Betfair where you are fighting against other punters).

 

[Tarrou]

Don't think I understand this comment. You're saying you can't think of any use for data telling a coach about the quality of chances his team is creating?

Not really. Can you?

I mean, it's pretty obvious which chances are easier to score. The closer you get the easier it is.

Sure on some micro-level it will help but doubt it's any major focus, do you think differently?

 

[largelyworried]

Not really. Can you?

I mean, it's pretty obvious which chances are easier to score. The closer you get the easier it is.

Sure on some micro-level it will help but doubt it's any major focus, do you think differently?

How about assessing the performance of a striker against their last 100 chances? How about assessing their performance this season vs last season vs the season before? Can a coach reliably and instantly recall that many chances and analyse them without bias?

 

[dal]

Correct, that as well but rule states:
Being in an offside position is not an offence in itself, but a player so positioned when the ball is played by a teammate can be judged guilty of an offside offence if they receive the ball or will otherwise become "involved in active play", will "interfere with an opponent", or will "gain an advantage" by being in that position.

Anyway, this is not a discussion we should be having.

This is not a distinct advantage at all, the ball moves half way up the pitch and Eriksen could have scored anyway, Rashford actually held is run when he received the final pass, so there isn't really an advantage. I've never seen anything like this given ever. This in reality only comes into play if a player is offside blocking the goalkeepers line of site and the offending team score.

 

[Champ]

Right so basically you had no clue but said it was useless anyway because why not.

In FPL for example, you could use xG to spot variations between form and points, to get ahead of the curve. In layman terms, it can show you where players are getting unlucky and buy them before the luck evens out, they start performing better in points and the hoards jump on the bandwagon.

Gambling is a lot more complicated, and the margins are much thinner nowadays. But going back 10 years ago when I was a professional gambler it, xG (or similar concepts) were useful for the exact same reason (most notably on Betfair where you are fighting against other punters).

I said it was useless because it essentially is from a footballing point of view.

This was also what was stated by a professional football player, Ben Foster, who said that no club he has been at has used expected goals for that reason, it's not really useful.

Also, you have to use it correctly, as in over the course of a season or at least over a vast amount of games.
Using it game by game is pointless and isn't how the stat is designed to be used.

So yeah, I do have a clue thanks, just not with a view to using the stat for gambling or fantasy football, of which I partake in neither.

 

[Tarrou]

How about assessing the performance of a striker against their last 100 chances? How about assessing their performance this season vs last season vs the season before? Can a coach reliably and instantly recall that many chances and analyse them without bias?

Yeah good point on the striker, makes sense. I guess I was in the mind-frame of how would Ben Foster be using this stat

 

[Tarrou]

I said it was useless because it essentially is from a footballing point of view.

This was also what was stated by a professional football player, Ben Foster, who said that no club he has been at has used expected goals for that reason, it's not really useful.

Also, you have to use it correctly, as in over the course of a season or at least over a vast amount of games.
Using it game by game is pointless and isn't how the stat is designed to be used.

So yeah, I do have a clue thanks, just not with a view to using the stat for gambling or fantasy football, of which I partake in neither.

Use it for what exactly? You said it was useless.

 

[roonster09]

Because expected goals is bullshit!

Ben Foster was speaking about expected goals the other day and categorically stated that no manager gives a feck a out expected goals, and no team gives it a passing thought.

That's not true at all. Here is Thomas Frank using it in his post match interview.

 

[mitchmouse]

A very good performance (and obviously result) against a good team. Have to be honest, for long periods Arsenal were the better team but we have improved defensively and at closing down the space.

Some very good individual performances were a joy to watch: obviously Eriksen but also (and I know some won't agree) McT in midfield, varane and Martinez again at the heart of the defence despite a very good showing from G Jesus, Dalot, too, and malacia was pretty good while being given his biggest test yet.

I was very disappointed with Sancho and, despite his goals, Rashford was invisible for long periods of the game. He is not and never will be a focal point for the attack. He is not a no.9. He cannot hold up the ball and bring in others. He is far better coming in from wide. I thought we looked far more threatening when Ronaldo came and and if Fred and Bruno had hit slightly better passes he would have been in.

One thing the substitutions proved beyond doubt: Maguire must never start big games again. He looked a totally donkey compared with Martinez and the defence looked my panicky once he came on. And there were moments were DDG was in no man's land: the disallowed goal and Sako's strike.

Over all, a great game to watch and ETH has made watching United fun again

 

[Champ]

That's not true at all. Here is Thomas Frank using it in his post match interview.

He gave it a passing flying comment, did not suggest he uses it to any great degree.

 

[Champ]

Use it for what exactly? You said it was useless.

Whatever people want to use the stat for!

It's there to be used if people want to, just it's pointless and useless from a footballing point of view.

You've already said it can be used for gambling. However it isn't a stat that is designed to be used on a game by game basis, it's designed to be used over the course of a season.

 

[roonster09]

He gave it a passing flying comment, did not suggest he uses it to any great degree.

He won't be giving it away in interviews. Him saying that in the interview shows they use it. Like you said in other posts (or maybe someone else), it's not a model for single game. It's used with bigger sample size and most clubs use it and the ones who don't are left behind. It's not surprising that statsbomb are the one who are employed/used by lot of clubs.

 

[Tarrou]

Whatever people want to use the stat for!

It's there to be used if people want to, just it's pointless and useless from a footballing point of view.

You've already said it can be used for gambling. However it isn't a stat that is designed to be used on a game by game basis, it's designed to be used over the course of a season.

Ah yeah we're mostly in agreement then. It was just the "No point at all really" comment I was confused about. It definitely has meaningful uses but it's just data at the end of the day.