Patrick Dorgu | Medical today? No. Weekend.

If you don’t know our valuation of him how can you be sure that we are overpaying?
Our valuation is irrelevant. What a player is worth is determined what another club is willing to pay for him.

We could say “oh, he’s worth £40m, let’s pay that!” But if no one else would be willing to pay more than £20m, we’d have overpaid by £20m and be stuck with him.
 
Our valuation is irrelevant. What a player is worth is determined what another club is willing to pay for him.

We could say “oh, he worth £40m, let’s pay that!” But if no one else would be willing to pay more than £20m, we’d have overpaid by £20m and be stuck with him.
What are you talking about we are the club willing to pay for him.
 
If you pay more than anyone else thinks he’s worth, you have overpaid, by definition.

By that rationale pretty much every club who ever signs anyone has overpaid.

I guess we ‘overpaid’ for Ronaldo and Rooney too.
 
By that rationale pretty much every club who ever signs anyone has overpaid.

I guess we ‘overpaid’ for Ronaldo and Rooney too.
Many other clubs were willing to match our offer for Ronaldo. And, as far as I remember, Newcastle actually outbid us for Rooney but he insisted on United.
 
Bugger all for Dorgu, this is purely vibes from the basic information available and other people’s comments from trustworthyish places. Seen a fair bit of alvaro at benfica though.
Do you not think it’s a bit harsh to declare him a failure based on “vibes”?
 
And Napoli are willing to pay for Dorgu so...

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What about the scenario of discovering a player that nobody else has. Using your logic that player is worth nothing?

Also, just because the market 'values' a player at a specific amount it does not mean that it is correct. After all a player can be undervalued.
 
Huh? Napoli wanted him way before everyone ever mentioned Manchester, same was said about Juventus is Cambiasso was about to leave.
 
Many other clubs were willing to match our offer for Ronaldo. And, as far as I remember, Newcastle actually outbid us for Rooney but he insisted on United.
There were? I cant find any evidence of other clubs matching our offer.

And Newcastle offered £20m for Everton, which was turned down. We offered more.
 
Getting the feeling of a done deal with this based on the movement.

Also think Garnacho will be out the door this week.
 
Also, just because the market 'values' a player at a specific amount it does not mean that it is correct. After all a player can be undervalued.
It’s possible, I guess. But more often than not, players are bought for more than they’re worth. That’s because of a fundamental asymmetry of information: the selling club always knows more about a player than the buying club and should get the better side of the deal (all else being equal).

If you go back to the Maguire, Antony and Sancho transfer threads, you’ll see me as one of the people saying “these deals are insane!”

But I’m not some kind of transfer savant. It should have been obvious to anyone we’d hugely overpaid and would live to regret it.

On the other hand, I was in favour of the Schneiderlin and Di Maria transfers because they were roughly fair value. And despite the fact they both stunk up the place, we were more or less able to get our money back. That’s why it’s critical not to overpay on transfers. Getting that wrong is what has wrecked this club more than anything else.

If we spend £30-40m on this Dorgu kid, we will be making the same mistake. Again.
 
It’s possible, I guess. But more often than not, players are bought for more than they’re worth. That’s because of a fundamental asymmetry of information: the selling club always knows more about a player than the buying club and should get the better side of the deal (all else being equal).

If you go back to the Maguire, Antony and Sancho transfer threads, you’ll see me as one of the people saying “these deals are insane!”

But I’m not some kind of transfer savant. It should have been obvious to anyone we’d hugely overpaid and would live to regret it.

On the other hand, I was in favour of the Schneiderlin and Di Maria transfers because they were roughly fair value. And despite the fact they both stunk up the place, we were more or less able to get our money back. That’s why it’s critical not to overpay on transfers. Getting that wrong is what has wrecked this club more than anything else.

If we spend £30-40m on this Dorgu kid, we will be making the same mistake. Again.
£30 million for Dorgu is probably 5-10 million more than he is worth but you have to factor in multiple things.

1. We are trying to take their best player in January while they try and fight off relegation.
2. They also know that we are desperate and supposedly Napoli are willing to buy him and let him stay on loan till the end of the season.
 
It’s possible, I guess. But more often than not, players are bought for more than they’re worth. That’s because of a fundamental asymmetry of information: the selling club always knows more about a player than the buying club and should get the better side of the deal (all else being equal).

If you go back to the Maguire, Antony and Sancho transfer threads, you’ll see me as one of the people saying “these deals are insane!”

But I’m not some kind of transfer savant. It should have been obvious to anyone we’d hugely overpaid and would live to regret it.

On the other hand, I was in favour of the Schneiderlin and Di Maria transfers because they were roughly fair value. And despite the fact they both stunk up the place, we were more or less able to get our money back. That’s why it’s critical not to overpay on transfers. Getting that wrong is what has wrecked this club more than anything else.

If we spend £30-40m on this Dorgu kid, we will be making the same mistake. Again.
Good post.

I would understand the desperation & overpaying bit if he was some game changer that is going to help us win something or achieve something this season. Right now he doesn't seem like a difference making singing. I see no point in paying over the odds for him.

If we overpay & he doesn't work out the same will happen what is happening with Antony: we'd be paying him to play for someone else a couple of seasons down the line.
 
Good post.

I would understand the desperation & overpaying bit if he was some game changer that is going to help us win something or achieve something this season. Right now he doesn't seem like a difference making singing. I see no point in paying over the odds for him.

If we overpay & he doesn't work out the same will happen what is happening with Antony: we'd be paying him to play for someone else a couple of seasons down the line.
Define 'over the odds'

Also, this has absolutely no relevance to the Antony deal in any way.
 
It’s possible, I guess. But more often than not, players are bought for more than they’re worth. That’s because of a fundamental asymmetry of information: the selling club always knows more about a player than the buying club and should get the better side of the deal (all else being equal).

If you go back to the Maguire, Antony and Sancho transfer threads, you’ll see me as one of the people saying “these deals are insane!”

But I’m not some kind of transfer savant. It should have been obvious to anyone we’d hugely overpaid and would live to regret it.

On the other hand, I was in favour of the Schneiderlin and Di Maria transfers because they were roughly fair value. And despite the fact they both stunk up the place, we were more or less able to get our money back. That’s why it’s critical not to overpay on transfers. Getting that wrong is what has wrecked this club more than anything else.

If we spend £30-40m on this Dorgu kid, we will be making the same mistake. Again.
Genuine question: how much have you seen him play?
 
£30 million for Dorgu is probably 5-10 million more than he is worth but you have to factor in multiple things.

1. We are trying to take their best player in January while they try and fight off relegation.
2. They also know that we are desperate and supposedly Napoli are willing to buy him and let him stay on loan till the end of the season.
Why are we “desperate”? Just wait until the summer if they’re quoting us silly prices.

Above all else, don’t overpay. There’s always other players.
 
Why are we “desperate”? Just wait until the summer if they’re quoting us silly prices.

Above all else, don’t overpay. There’s always other players.
LWB is clearly the priority position.

You are so hyper-fixated on 'overpaying' and 'value' when it's clear you don't have a clue about the player in question.

I could understand if you genuinely had some knowledge about him to form an opinion but you are literally guessing and trying to be smart.
 
Define 'over the odds'

Also, this has absolutely no relevance to the Antony deal in any way.
That was just an example of a player that doesn't fit in and now we can only loan out paying a portion of the wages. Not the first time for us.

You think we should overpay by 10m-15m, as you metion, for him? How will getting a LWB, a raw one at that who has not consistently played the position, change our season? What's the desperation?
 
£25m is still a very large sum of money for potential especially given he was bought for £200k.

Lecce’s last record sale was Hjulmand to you guessed it Sporting CP at £18.27m.

We shouldn’t be paying £30m for him essentially.
 
Why are we “desperate”? Just wait until the summer if they’re quoting us silly prices.

Above all else, don’t overpay. There’s always other players.
Preach.

LWB is clearly the priority position.

You are so hyper-fixated on 'overpaying' and 'value' when it's clear you don't have a clue about the player in question.

I could understand if you genuinely had some knowledge about him to form an opinion but you are literally guessing and trying to be smart.
Maguire, Antony, Hojlund, Zirkzee, Amad (although looks like he is delivering now), Casemiro.

Obvious at the time that we were overpaying for the above and it has left us in the predicament we are in now.
 
That was just an example of a player that doesn't fit in and now we can only loan out paying a portion of the wages. Not the first time for us.

You think we should pay 10m-15m, as you metion, for him? How will getting a LWB, a raw one at that who has not consistently played the position, change our season? What's the desperation?
Your example was completely irrelevant due to the drastic difference in finances and circumstances involved.

This is a player that would cost us what like £6 million per season over the length of his contract? Antony was what £80m fee and £60 million in wages. Meaning it's costing us £28 million a year for Antony. In what universe is that comparable?
 
Your example was completely irrelevant due to the drastic difference in finances and circumstances involved.

This is a player that would cost us what like £6 million per season over the length of his contract? Antony was what £80m fee and £60 million in wages. Meaning it's costing us £28 million a year for Antony. In what universe is that comparable?
Ignore the first part.

Reply to the second part of the post which was more relevant to the player discussion.
 
And while not ideal I don’t think he’s so good that we have to spend £30m+ on him.

At that point I think you move onto another target.
 
People in here talking like there's some sort of magic figure that would automatically be accepted and that would automatically represent 'value'. Pulling numbers out of thin air. We can offer 15 million until we're blue in the face but if the club don't accept it we can't force them. Realistically, if we want the player badly now then we have to pay a price that the selling club deems acceptable. Yes, it's on us to make sure that price is as low as possible but there is a floor to that. If that is 30 million, then that's the price. The question then becomes whether the player is worth it or will be in the long run. Saying that paying more than any other buying club is willing to pay is overpaying is stupid, unless by overpaying you very literally mean 'paying more than other buying clubs' which has nothing to say about the actual value (and future value) of an asset.