Nurse Lucy Letby - guilty of murdering 7 babies - whole life sentence

lynchie said:
It's like that old joke - one in 5 people is Chinese, so of my brothers it's either me, Steve, Dave, Barry or Xhiyu. I've got my eye on Barry.

Just because at a population level 1 in 10 occurrences present in that way, doesn't mean one occurrence in a hospital implies there must be 9 others in the hospital that didn't.
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It's not like that joke at all, unless skin discoloration only appears in 10 % of cases for a specific reason, and that reason was present in these cases. Is that true?
 
pocco said:
I can't trust this Dr Lee after he said this...is it just me or is he talking absolute waffle?

Like one post on reddit said, the chances of dying from a knife attack are slim. But if you're being attacked by somebody trying to stab you, those odds go up significantly!
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He's not exactly right, but at the same time, from what he said, the odds of 5 out of 9 babies having skin discolouration if they died of an embolism would be
9c5*(0.1)^5(0.9)^4 which is about 8 in 10,000 or 0.08%.
For reference, the odds of 1 out of 9 babies having the discolouration would be 9*0.1*0.9^8 = 38%
 
berbatrick said:
He's not exactly right, but at the same time, from what he said, the odds of 5 out of 9 babies having skin discolouration if they died of an embolism would be
9c5*(0.1)^5(0.9)^4 which is about 8 in 10,000 or 0.08%.
For reference, the odds of 1 out of 9 babies having the discolouration would be 9*0.1*0.9^8 = 38%
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Yeah I get that, but it seems like he’s wading in and focusing on this, when the guys who performed autopsy or whatever said that they didn’t conclude based on the skin discolouration. Surely they know better than him, when he didn’t even witness it for himself. Often in court they over focus on things like this, perhaps in bad faith sometimes, even though it’s misleading. But the guys who actually had to figure out the cause of death acted in good faith with their findings, I’m sure.

The other issue is, how reliable is his paper? From what I’ve read it was limited to 50 cases. Is that enough to conclude to chances of skin discolouration in these cases? Genuine question because I don’t know.
 
Jippy said:
Press conference on that professor's analysis was today apparently. Had been distracted and forgotten about it but got sent a press release, oddly.



EDIT: live feed on the Times- https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-news-evidence-appeal-case-latest-news-hmxcf2n0p
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Should you wish to interview Dr Lee, Mark and David, please do not hesitate to get in touch. They are available for radio and television interviews.
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Oh, I'm sure they are.
 
NotThatSoph said:
It's not like that joke at all, unless skin discoloration only appears in 10 % of cases for a specific reason, and that reason was present in these cases. Is that true?
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Statistics like that can't be applied hard and fast to every case. If the statistics are accurate, then I'd say they would work out throughout every case of skin embolism, but it's possible that more of the cases happen in one hospital just by chance.

But as you alluded to, is there a reason why it specifically happens in some cases and not others? Is there any sort of theory/science behind it? Could it be that the method in which she allegedly introduced the air, causes skin discolouration maybe? I have read some articles and they suggested that it's an area not very well studied, so that's why to me, it makes no sense to be hard and fast with statistics like this if so. I think I read that he investigated 50 cases for his paper, but would those statistics still be the same if he investigated 1000? These are all questions for those with better knowledge on the matter.

But it is worth pointing out again that they did say their findings weren't based solely on skin discolouration.
 
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