NFL Thread 2019

Heres from a previous discussion



Eboue said:
here's a quick way of looking at it:

in 2018, 2 point conversions are successful 58% of the time and extra points are successful 95% of the time.

go for two and make: .58 - then score when down 6, kick the extra point to win .95= 55% chance to be ahead
go for two and make: .58 - then score when down 6, kick the extra point and miss .05 = 3% chance to tie
go for two and miss: .42 - then score when down 8, go for two and make .58 = 24% chance to tie
go for two and miss: .42 - then when down 8, go for two and miss .42 = 18% chance to be behind

so if you go for it the first time, here are the probabilities

be ahead: 55%
be tied: 27%
be behind: 18%


and here are probabilities if you kick it first:

make make: .95*.95= 90% chance to tie
make miss: .95*.05= 5% chance to be behind
miss go for it and make .05*.58= 3% chance to tie
miss go for it and miss .05*.42= 2% chance to be behind


we can then say that in a tie game, each team has 50% chance of winning or losing (ignoring ties for the moment) and make it even simpler.


go for two: 68% chance to win
kick extra point: 46% chance to win
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Eboue said:
i think the break even point is 30% but its late and i dont have excel on this computer
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Eboue said:
It's not more risk as I explained above. Its playing to be in the game longer rather than play to win. Most nfl coaches dont understand probabilities. I dont know if you remember but about 10 years ago the Patriots had a 3 point lead on the Colts in Indianapolis on sunday night. It was 4th and 2 on their own 28 with about 3 minutes to go. Brady threw a flat to the right to Welker and he was a few inches short of the first down. The colts scored and won the game. (This is all from memory so excuse any missed details.)

The media pilloried belichick but he understood probabilities and didnt just stick to received wisdom. He knew that "well you punt it away and let your defense win it" wasnt a great option against prime peyton manning in a dome. He bet on brady to gain 2 yards. It was the right move it just didnt work out. Anyway this is a digression but doing things the way theyve always been done doesnt make them right.
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That scenario in particular makes sense though.

If Baltimore wanted to do a 2 pt conversion, why not do it later in the game or when they've scored a TD to be within 1 point? Use the 2 pt conversion to directly gain a lead instead of using it to only be down by 6.
 
Have to say the Ravens are pretty resilient considering the circumstances (on the road against a Super Bowl contender). They look legit.
 
Florida Man said:
That scenario in particular makes sense though.

If Baltimore wanted to do a 2 pt conversion, why not do it later in the game or when they've scored a TD to be within 1 point? Use the 2 pt conversion to directly gain a lead instead of using it to only be down by 6.
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Because if they miss the first one they need to go a second time to have a chance to get back the point they lost
 
Denver the only team in the last 50 years to have 0 sacks and 0 takeaways after three games.

With Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and Chris Harris on the defense that's criminal coaching, and we hired the defensive guy as Head Coach to go against the grain.

Working a treat.
 
Florida Man said:
What's the point of that onside when anyone on the receiving team can fair catch?
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Think they said it was so that there would be no time off the clock and a play would have to be run before 2 min warning
 
Wentz again let down by his receivers. Eagles defence is dire too . Unlikely to make the playoffs in the NFC
 
Bills are legit, especially their D is quite impressive.
 
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