NFL 2023

He's probably the #1 but I personally don't have a clear 1st round grade on any of these guys.

Considering he's not as any of his team mates (Olave and Wilson from last year, Marvin Harrison Jr who'll be a top 10 pick next year) he probably shouldn't go before the 20s.
I think he might end up better than both of them. Outplayed them as a sophomore in his only healthy college season.

The only question is whether the NFL is viewing him as a pure slot guy or rather someone like Jefferson (who also almost exclusively played in the slot in college).
 
I think he might end up better than both of them. Outplayed them as a sophomore in his only healthy college season.

The only question is whether the NFL is viewing him as a pure slot guy or rather someone like Jefferson (who also almost exclusively played in the slot in college).

The bolded part isn't true, it was basically 50/50. One year it was 80% as an outside receiver and the other year 81% from the slot. The idea that he was exclusively a slot receiver is one of the biggest proof that some of the analysts don't actually analyze.
 
I think he might end up better than both of them. Outplayed them as a sophomore in his only healthy college season.

The only question is whether the NFL is viewing him as a pure slot guy or rather someone like Jefferson (who also almost exclusively played in the slot in college).

I can't see it personally. There's nothing outstanding to his game, compared to Olave's route-running and Wilson's electrifying playmaking ability. He's also slow compared to both of them.

Yes he outplayed them statistically, but the argument is that he was beating up on easy match-ups from the slot (something like 85% of his snaps inside) whilst they drew the hard coverage on the outside.

Taking into account the 1 year of production only, there's no way he should be considered a better prospect than either of them.

The concerns about Jefferson being a slot-only were always a bit overblown, he played a tonne outside in his final year I believe, and ran a low 4.4 at his pro day to answer the question marks about his long speed.
 
The bolded part isn't true, it was basically 50/50. One year it was 80% as an outside receiver and the other year 81% from the slot. The idea that he was exclusively a slot receiver is one of the biggest proof that some of the analysts don't actually analyze.
I indeed should've added "in his last college season". It was close to 50/50 over his entire college career because he primarily played outside in 2018, but that wasn't the reason he was such a highly touted draft prospect. It was because of his 2019 season when LSU blew up and won the natty. It's not like JSN hasn't played outside *at all*, just to a much lesser degree, and just like Jefferson, not at all during his most productive season. The comparisons about slot usage are definitely apt imo; this as the conclusion of Lance Zierlein's scouting report at the time:

Lastly, the general view is that he is better as a slot receiver, where combating press coverage isn’t as much of an issue, than an outside receiver, at least initially.

Which can easily be applied to JSN as well.

The concerns about Jefferson being a slot-only were always a bit overblown, he played a tonne outside in his final year I believe, and ran a low 4.4 at his pro day to answer the question marks about his long speed.
He ran 575 out of 583 total routes form the slot in his final season, according to PFF... That's 98.6% of his routes out of the slot.

JSN's speed concerns (or speed concerns for almost all WR at that) are way overblown. He ran something between 4.48-4.52 at the OSU pro day. ARSB ran a 4.51, Lamb ran a 4.51, Davante Adams ran a 4.56, DeAndre Hopkins a 4.57, Kupp a 4.62 and Jerry Rice a 4.71. Meanwhile amongst the fastest are John Ross, Henry Ruggs, Tyquan Thornton, ...

It doesn't matter for a receiver anymore. JSN had one of the best 3-cone and shuttle-drill performances of all time which is way more telling if you combine that with his tape imo. His change of direction is elite.

I agree that a top-20 pick on JSN is rather unlikely, but won't agree that he's a lesser prospect than the likes of Wilson, Olave (late declare) or London were last year. He's in the same category as they were, but since the class is much weaker at WR in general, and the teams picking high don't seem to have a pressing need, he just might go later. On the other hand, wouldn't be that surprised if Houston pairs him with Stroud again at #12 if they land Stroud at #2.
 
I indeed should've added "in his last college season". It was close to 50/50 over his entire college career because he primarily played outside in 2018, but that wasn't the reason he was such a highly touted draft prospect. It was because of his 2019 season when LSU blew up and won the natty. It's not like JSN hasn't played outside *at all*, just to a much lesser degree, and just like Jefferson, not at all during his most productive season. The comparisons about slot usage are definitely apt imo; this as the conclusion of Lance Zierlein's scouting report at the time:



Which can easily be applied to JSN as well.


He ran 575 out of 583 total routes form the slot in his final season, according to PFF... That's 98.6% of his routes out of the slot.

Yes my bad, it was his sophomore year. He had 550+ snaps outside which is enough of a sample size to answer some question marks, combined with running an official 4.43.

JSN played 88% of his snaps from the slot in 2021 and we barely saw him in 2020 or last year, so those question marks remain when you don't have the film. Most have timed him in the low 4.5's at his pro day.

JSN's speed concerns (or speed concerns for almost all WR at that) are way overblown. He ran something between 4.48-4.52 at the OSU pro day. ARSB ran a 4.51, Lamb ran a 4.51, Davante Adams ran a 4.56, DeAndre Hopkins a 4.57, Kupp a 4.62 and Jerry Rice a 4.71. Meanwhile amongst the fastest are John Ross, Henry Ruggs, Tyquan Thornton, ...

It's not the be-all and end-all, but to say it's not important is overly dismissive. For every ARSB there's a N'Keal Harry, for every Ceedee Lamb there's a Josh Doctson.

A lot of these guys have elite attributes that allow them to win reps outside - Adams is one of the best route-runners of all-time for example (and has 20lbs+ on JSN), Hopkins is also noticeably bigger and has elite body control and hands etc.

How does JSN win against outside receivers? I'm not too sure looking at the tape.

It doesn't matter for a receiver anymore. JSN had one of the best 3-cone and shuttle-drill performances of all time which is way more telling if you combine that with his tape imo. His change of direction is elite.

This sort of game description of his game arguably confirms the suspicions though that he'll have to make his living out the slot. He doesn't have the speed or physicality to win on longer progressing routes, or to beat press-man against outside corners.

I don't doubt he'll do well working on the inside against nickel corners and linebackers on quick routes (Seattle would be a great fit for example, assuming they run more 11 personnel than last year if they had a quality slot receiver), but he's missing ideal attributes to be a true #1 Z receiver (and clearly isn't an X, something that is truly lacking in his class in general).

On the other hand, wouldn't be that surprised if Houston pairs him with Stroud again at #12 if they land Stroud at #2.

Yes, likewise - however I think it's arguably they'd be picking him ahead of where he ultimately belongs in the interest of giving their rookie QB a familiar target.

(Also wouldn't be surprised if the Texans don't draft a QB at all this year).
 
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Wasn't that season then, must have been his sophomore year - but he played enough that I think questions were answered to a degree.

JSN played 88% of his snaps from the slot in 2021 and we barely saw him in 2020 or last year, so those question marks remain.



It's not the be-all and end-all, but to say it's not important is overly dismissive. For every ARSB there's a N'Keal Harry, for every Ceedee Lamb there's a Josh Doctson.

A lot of these guys have elite attributes that allow them to win reps outside - Adams is one of the best route-runners of all-time for example (and has 20lbs+ on JSN), Hopkins is also noticeably bigger and has elite body control and hands etc.

How does JSN win against outside receivers? I'm not too sure looking at the tape.



This sort of game description of his game arguably confirms the suspicions though that he'll have to make his living out the slot. He doesn't have the speed or physicality to win on longer progressing routes, or to beat press-man against outside corners.

I don't doubt he'll do well working on the inside against nickel corners and linebackers on quick routes (Seattle would be a great fit for example), but he's missing ideal attributes to be a true #1 Z receiver (and clearly isn't an X, something that is truly lacking in his class in general).



Yes, likewise - however I think it's arguably they'd be picking him ahead of where he ultimately belongs in the interest of giving their rookie QB a familiar target.

(Also wouldn't be surprised if the Texans don't draft a QB at all this year).
All fair, I think we don't disagree too much about him actually. I think, even if he's drafted/used primarily as a slot receiver, he can be very successful at NFL level.
 
Yeah I think he'll still be decent. Just sums up the WR draft class for me that he's probably the clear #1 but he may be a slot-only guy.

Crazy many truly undersized WRs there are in this draft near the top of the rankings. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs - all guys that are either like 5'9" or 170lbs.

Then there's Quentin Johnston, who's arguably DK Metcalf minus 30lbs of physicality and without the straight line speed.
 
I hope Njigba drops to 23, while Johnston is supposed to be the type of receivers that the Vikings need, his drop rate is way too concerning.
 
Too many red flags for QJ imo.

Downs, Flowers, Addison have the size/weight concerns but it's not a deal breaker in the current NFL (even though they're inferior talents to someone like DeVonta Smith).
 
Just seen that NFL Gamepass International is moving to DAZN for the upcoming season. I wonder how much they're going to feck us with the inevitable price rise? I can see them putting it to around £250.
 
Just seen that NFL Gamepass International is moving to DAZN for the upcoming season. I wonder how much they're going to feck us with the inevitable price rise? I can see them putting it to around £250.

That would be almost double wouldn’t it? I’d be surprised if they tried that.
 
That would be almost double wouldn’t it? I’d be surprised if they tried that.
I think it was 170 last year. I can perhaps see a £19.99 monthly subscription to take it to 240.
 


3th overall pick from a few years ago, now traded for a 5th :lol:
 

Ooofff. Gut punch here. He has had a bit of a rocky last couple of seasons, but his overall output is still high. David is coming back which is feel good & he can still play a bit, but losing White would create a chasm.

e - also not a glowing endorsement of Bowles.
 
I think it was 170 last year. I can perhaps see a £19.99 monthly subscription to take it to 240.

I'd be surprised if they lock subscribers in to paying £19.99 a month for the 6 months of the year when there's no games on. That'd be pretty shite, and it would make little sense.

The current Gamepass instalment plan is 4 monthly payments during the regular season.
 
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GamePass lite is where it’s at anyway. You don’t need more than RedZone and Game in 40’.

Can understand it though if you’re a die hard fan of one particular franchis and just wanna watch their games in full.
 


Sometimes I do ask myself whether them NFL GMs are just regular people like us who climbed the chain of command in an NFL organization but really don't have any more of a clue than we do.
 


Sometimes I do ask myself whether them NFL GMs are just regular people like us who climbed the chain of command in an NFL organization but really don't have any more of a clue than we do.


What are you basing your question on ? The fact that this guy can throw far ?
 
What are you basing your question on ? The fact that this guy can throw far ?
What (in)tangibles, stats, or tape are available to argue that he's a better prospect than Stroud and Young? His longest completion in 2022 season and at his Pro Day was 61 yards (at least that's what I can retrieve from the internet), CJ Stroud can easily match or better that:



Bryce Young also threw a 60-yarder to Jameson Williams last season. So the difference for that "cannon of an arm" is marginal at best, doesn't really matter whether you can throw it 68 or 73 yards in the NFL. So first part of the statement, most talented QB in the class, can't really be proven other than if someone is arguing it's just the eye test that does it for them.

Then the second part where they believe he has the talent to be a 10x All-Pro QB. FFS :lol: Peyton Manning has 10, Brady only has 6. I know it can be hyperbole but just let's keep it real here. Will Levis isn't the most talented QB in this class, doesn't have the most upside as QB in this class, and it's more likely he ends up without a Pro Bowl selection than to even get one All-Pro selection.

That's why I said, I have no idea how some GMs have gotten their jobs if you look at some of their comments - or draft selections.
 
What (in)tangibles, stats, or tape are available to argue that he's a better prospect than Stroud and Young? His longest completion in 2022 season and at his Pro Day was 61 yards (at least that's what I can retrieve from the internet), CJ Stroud can easily match or better that:



Bryce Young also threw a 60-yarder to Jameson Williams last season. So the difference for that "cannon of an arm" is marginal at best, doesn't really matter whether you can throw it 68 or 73 yards in the NFL. So first part of the statement, most talented QB in the class, can't really be proven other than if someone is arguing it's just the eye test that does it for them.

Then the second part where they believe he has the talent to be a 10x All-Pro QB. FFS :lol: Peyton Manning has 10, Brady only has 6. I know it can be hyperbole but just let's keep it real here. Will Levis isn't the most talented QB in this class, doesn't have the most upside as QB in this class, and it's more likely he ends up without a Pro Bowl selection than to even get one All-Pro selection.

That's why I said, I have no idea how some GMs have gotten their jobs if you look at some of their comments - or draft selections.


I think many of these private workouts and combines are only meant to confirm or deny what most NFL teams already know about prominent CFB kids, because they've already been watching them extensively and in many instances have already spoken to their coaches. Bellichik and Saban for instance, are good pals and in regular contact with one another about player qualities.

There are also qualities that don't show up on social media videos, such as a person's attitude, work ethic, how coachable they are, their aptitude to comprehensively learn a pro-playbook etc., that all factor into the decision making calculus. What a guy looks like in college also has limited applicability to the pros because there's also a development factor that takes place after a guy goes into the league that is comparably as important as how a player performed in college. This is imo why highly touted college players randomly flop in the pros (the list is endless), and likewise why random below the radar guys in college are surprisingly effective in the NFL. Shannon Sharpe, Terrell Davis, Brady, Terrell Owens, AB, and more recently guys like Purdy would be examples.
 
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I think many of these private workouts and combines are only meant to confirm or deny what most NFL teams already know about prominent CFB kids, because they've already been watching them extensively and in many instances have already spoken to their coaches. Bellichik and Saban for instance, are good pals and in regular contact with one another about player qualities.

There are also qualities that don't show up on social media videos, such as a person's attitude, work ethic, how coachable they are, their aptitude to comprehensively learn a pro-playbook etc., that all factor into the decision making calculus. What a guy looks like in college also has limited applicability to the pros because there's also a development factor that takes place after a guy goes into the league that is comparably as important as how a player performed in college. This is imo why highly touted college players randomly flop in the pros (the list is endless), and likewise why random below the radar guys in college are surprisingly effective in the NFL. Shannon Sharpe, Terrell Davis, Brady, Terrell Owens, AB, and more recently guys like Purdy would be examples.

Yeah, the issue with College performances is that they depend a lot on the quality of the opposition and the quality of the lower end players in your own team. For example a QB that doesn't have top level receivers, pass blockers or coordinator is likely to not perform as well as a QB that is playing for Alabama but it doesn't mean that said QB isn't far better than Alabama's QB.
 
I think many of these private workouts and combines are only meant to confirm or deny what most NFL teams already know about prominent CFB kids, because they've already been watching them extensively and in many instances have already spoken to their coaches. Bellichik and Saban for instance, are good pals and in regular contact with one another about player qualities.

There are also qualities that don't show up on social media videos, such as a person's attitude, work ethic, how coachable they are, their aptitude to comprehensively learn a pro-playbook etc., that all factor into the decision making calculus. What a guy looks like in college also has limited applicability to the pros because there's also a development factor that takes place after a guy goes into the league that is comparably as important as how a player performed in college. This is imo why highly touted college players randomly flop in the pros (the list is endless), and likewise why random below the radar guys in college are surprisingly effective in the NFL. Shannon Sharpe, Terrell Davis, Brady, Terrell Owens, AB, and more recently guys like Purdy would be examples.
Well, yeah, I do agree with all that, and the bolded part as well. But the GM in the tweet talks about "(arm) talent", that's no the intangibles imo.

Also, if we are to believe the reports, it's Bryce Young who scored best on the most important QB test:



Coincidentally (or not), it was Brock Purdy who had the highest score in last year's draft.

But we'll see. I just thought it was quite a ridiculous thing to say.
 
Well, yeah, I do agree with all that, and the bolded part as well. But the GM in the tweet talks about "(arm) talent", that's no the intangibles imo.

Also, if we are to believe the reports, it's Bryce Young who scored best on the most important QB test:



Coincidentally (or not), it was Brock Purdy who had the highest score in last year's draft.

But we'll see. I just thought it was quite a ridiculous thing to say.


Levis has the strongest and most accurate arm. His reported issue is with his pocket movement and timing under pressure(he is the source of a lot of sacks).
 
Levis has the strongest and most accurate arm. His reported issue is with his pocket movement and timing under pressure(he is the source of a lot of sacks).
Major red flag when transitioning from college to the NFL.

I also thought he was a lot less precise than Stroud and Young on downfield throws (which would be his biggest strength with his strongest arm trait)? Based on what does he have the best accuracy? His best argument right now for becoming a successful pro is imo that he could be the most pro-ready given the offense he played in at Kentucky.

But most talented, in this class? I'm 100% off on that assessment, is all. Not saying he can't succeed of course.
 
Also the guy eats bananas with the skin on them and puts mayonaise, MAYONAISE, in his coffee.

Wanna stay clear of such people.
 
Yeah, the issue with College performances is that they depend a lot on the quality of the opposition and the quality of the lower end players in your own team. For example a QB that doesn't have top level receivers, pass blockers or coordinator is likely to not perform as well as a QB that is playing for Alabama but it doesn't mean that said QB isn't far better than Alabama's QB.

Yep. That's where the intangibles (the qualities listed above) come into play. Player interviews also factor into it. For instance, in 2018, then Browns VP of player personnel Alonzo Highsmith had Darnold as his #1 pick in the draft until he, Huw Jackson and the OC travelled to Oklahoma to meet Mayfield for a private workout and interview. It was then that they decided to ditch Darnold for Mayfield. In retrospect both were the wrong choices and Josh Allen (Dorsey's original lean) ended up being the player they should've taken. What made Allen better as a pro ? His development under a coach and system that the Browns and Jets didn't have in place at the time.
 
Major red flag when transitioning from college to the NFL.

I also thought he was a lot less precise than Stroud and Young on downfield throws (which would be his biggest strength with his strongest arm trait)? Based on what does he have the best accuracy? His best argument right now for becoming a successful pro is imo that he could be the most pro-ready given the offense he played in at Kentucky.

But most talented, in this class? I'm 100% off on that assessment, is all. Not saying he can't succeed of course.

Indeed, that's why no one takes him before Stroud or Young. Regarding accuracy iirc it is about his ability to throw a high rate of catchable passes regardless of the quality of the platform, he can throw from the pocket or in movement with accuracy and pace. His issue is well-known and maybe unfixable but it's not arm talent.
 


Sometimes I do ask myself whether them NFL GMs are just regular people like us who climbed the chain of command in an NFL organization but really don't have any more of a clue than we do.

'Superstar' seems a bit much.
 
Also the guy eats bananas with the skin on them and puts mayonaise, MAYONAISE, in his coffee.

Wanna stay clear of such people.
Apparently the mayo into coffee thing is just a joke that took off.

I know, I was crushed too upon hearing that.
 
GamePass lite is where it’s at anyway. You don’t need more than RedZone and Game in 40’.

Can understand it though if you’re a die hard fan of one particular franchis and just wanna watch their games in full.
Do you not ‘support’ anyone?
 
Do you not ‘support’ anyone?
Used to be the Texans because they were on Hard Knocks when I started following the NFL and Watt and Hopkins were two of my favourite players back then, but it’s all gone downhill since. Coupled with the Watson fiasco, couldn’t really care about them anymore. They’re a pretty terrible and terribly run franchise as well.

More about players than teams for me. I do have a soft spot for the Saints though.
 
Indeed, that's why no one takes him before Stroud or Young. Regarding accuracy iirc it is about his ability to throw a high rate of catchable passes regardless of the quality of the platform, he can throw from the pocket or in movement with accuracy and pace. His issue is well-known and maybe unfixable but it's not arm talent.
Stroud is generally regarded as the most accurate of the 1st round QBs. That's a big part of why he was favored to go first overall for a while, though I think that has switched back to Bryce.

(Also it was based on a McCown YouTube review of Stroud before he joined the Panthers' coaching staff if I had to guess...)
 


You can feel that silly season is nearing its peak for the draft. Two more weeks left now :devil:

Only needs to be one team dumb/enamored enough with Bijan to actually draft him in the upper half of the first round. I'd laugh my ass of if he goes top 10 :lol: The Twitter meltdown would be glorious.
 


This would also be a very fun scenario (and an incredibly dumb move by the Texans as well). So many teams would/should be calling the Cards for the #3 if Stroud is still available; the Titans, Jets (if no Rodgers), Commanders, Lions, Buccaneers, Ravens and the Vikings at least.