Shouldn't matter that he's a rookie or not, imo. I also think he'll maybe get overlooked because people will focus on the strength of his Oline. Regardless of that, I think the Cowboys wouldn't have come close to a 12-2 record without him and that's why he should win it.I'd put Ryan instead of Carr in my top 3 but agree with your 1 & 2 and their order. It's easy to overlook that Atlanta has one of the leagues worst defences which makes it pretty special that he has done what he's done. Granted you could say that he's got good receivers a la Julio.
Question is does it count against or for Zeke that he's a rookie? As far as I know no rookie has ever won the league MVP.
I was actually pondering about Carr or Ryan at 3th place. Ryan has been very good this season but he plays in an underwhelming NFC South and his team currently 'only' sits at 9-5 (I know that's also due to a very bad defense but still). Carr has lifted the level of the Raiders in the strongest division of the NFL and got them to the playoffs for the first time in yonks, he definitely has a better defense and I think his WR options are as good as Ryan's, but still he edges it for me.