next labour leader

[Ubik]

Not necessarily. Previous non voters and voters of other parties can also swing key constituency's, more disillusioned Tories could vote for UKIP or abstain. Plus Corbyn is far more the type of person a floating voter would listen to and think "he's got a point" than Miliband so I imagine there are people who voted Tory last time who could be won over. Obviously genuine conservatives won't go anywhere near Corbyn. Unlikely as it is I don't think it's as clear cut as that.

I admire your optimism, I just think it's a little suicidal Non-voters don't tend to vote, the Lib Dems have been bled dry from the left already and the Greens make little impact overall. 1983 wasn't a freak occurrence, and Michael Foot was a far more impressive bloke than Corbyn. I can't see unilateral nuclear disarmament going down that much better now.

 

[bishblaize]

This is a black and white position: The Labour Party should not support an economically illiterate ideologically driven position motivated by a desire to shrink the state and its ability to help those in need.

A perfect example. That is not a black and white issue. Why? Not because it's morally wrong. And not because the economics aren't valid, it's absolutely the true that austerity hurts economies.

But it's not a black and white issue for the simple reason that the arguments already been lost. Its over. We cant just say "hey, can we go back five years and have that argument all over again?" It doesn't work like that. People have swallowed the line that Osborne has cast, and with a minority of the media on their side, labour will have one hell of a job turning it round.

At this point continuing the same argument is more likely than not going to get the same result. Pushing that view therefore has the likely consequence of keeping the Tories in power for longer. So it's far from black and white.

What some of the labour leader candidates are trying to find another way out of that bind. If you don't agree, fine, there's no easy answers to this. but every position that labour takes right now has pros and cons, bar none.

 

[soap]

I admire your optimism, I just think it's a little suicidal Non-voters don't tend to vote, the Lib Dems have been bled dry from the left already and the Greens make little impact overall. 1983 wasn't a freak occurrence, and Michael Foot was a far more impressive bloke than Corbyn. I can't see unilateral nuclear disarmament going down that much better now.

I'm not particularly optimistic tbh. it will take a few fairly major feck ups from the Tories for any of them to have a chance. Of course, a lot can happen in 5 years and I'd rather see Corbyn at the helm to take advantage should something swing public opinion. Obviously, you can counter that by saying "what if the Tories DO feck up badly and Corbyn is too far left to take advantage?" Which is a valid point, hence why I said its a gamble. I'll just be able to say "well feck it, the other three candidates were pretty shit anyway".

I know very little of Michael Foot beyond what my very biased Dad has told me!

 

[Cheesy]

I admire your optimism, I just think it's a little suicidal Non-voters don't tend to vote, the Lib Dems have been bled dry from the left already and the Greens make little impact overall. 1983 wasn't a freak occurrence, and Michael Foot was a far more impressive bloke than Corbyn. I can't see unilateral nuclear disarmament going down that much better now.

They got 1m votes. Take half of them, and suddenly you've got quite a few more votes. If they don't improve, the Lib Dems could be bled dry even further. Yeah, they had a shite election, but it's easy to forget that millions of people still voted for them. A number of those could potentially change to Labour if they like Corbyn.

 

[Ubik]

They got 1m votes. Take half of them, and suddenly you've got quite a few more votes. If they don't improve, the Lib Dems could be bled dry even further. Yeah, they had a shite election, but it's easy to forget that millions of people still voted for them. A number of those could potentially change to Labour if they like Corbyn.

And they still make little impact overall. Just had a quick gander, and using the in my view highly optimistic scenario that the Tory vote stays the same and Labour's 2015 base gets topped up by 50% of Green voters, Labour win no more than 10 of their target 2020 constituencies. So one of the most optimistic scenarios for Corbyn's Labour is a Tory-DUP government. I personally find it doubtful that 2015 Lib Dems who stuck with them through a galling coalition and voted for them again in the knowledge there was a chance it would bring about another one, would decide that what they really wanted was a socialist Labour party. He might boost the vote a bit in Scotland, and the SNP would still win all the seats.

 

[soap]

@Ubik we also shouldn't completely rule out a Lib Dem revival, which could potentially hurt the Tories more than it does Labour, seeing as they pretty much won the election by taking Lib Dem voters in key marginals. There's no way they'd go into coalition with the Tories again, obviously. Whether or not Tim Farron would be willing to prop up a Corbyn led minority government is another thing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33561504

Chukka saying Corbyn's strong performance means "Labour are behaving like a petulant child".

"Ultimately we will betray our people if we don't get elected."

It's not like supporting a football team where all that matters is winning ffs. Supporting austerity and slashing welfare is betraying your people! I could understand him saying this kind of stuff if he were actually running. As it is he's coming across a right knob. Don't really like him tbh.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

@soap

This is where I differ from the left in Labour. You might think it is important to take a principled stand, a position that means you will never have any chance of attaining power whatsoever to make any changes to social justice whatsoever. I prefer the pragmatic road of playing the game to get in power and start to make at least some changes for the better good. Once you are in power you can roll to the left, like the Tories are rolling to the right. The Tories will always beat left wing labour because they know how to play the game. They are rubbing their hands at the prospect of Corbyn getting in because they know it see the next election sewn up. An election that will see a new Tory leader, easy money for Osbourne and the chance for him to comfortably get his feet under the table.

It is a question of principle and nothing or pragmatism for any chance of the win. I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think a left wing government can be voted into power in Britain in the short to medium term.

Ideologues just seemed wrapped in irony to me, so outraged by the squeeze on the most vulnerable in society but their own ideological principles are more important to them than actually manoeuvring to make a tangible difference to the lives of those hardest hit.

 

[soap]

@Classical Mechanic I'd rather take a punt on the unlikely but not unthinkable prospect of Corbyn denying them a majority (their majority is only 12) than support a candidate who will just go with whatever direction the wind is blowing in. The other three candidates are probably all at least as close to the Tories as they are to Ed Miliband politically, and he was a centrist at best. Yvette Cooper is maybe an exception, I don't know as much about her - and from what I do know about her I'm inclined to think not. What makes you think any of them would move to the left if elected, btw?

You talk about being unwilling to compromise - if we had something of middle ground between them and Corbyn perhaps I could support that candidate, even though I'd still be far more closely aligned with Corbyn. As it is, no, sorry. I'll be voting for Corbyn or the Greens.

 

[sun_tzu]

Whether or not Tim Farron would be willing to prop up a Corbyn led minority government is another thing.
.

Much more likely than Farron supporting the conservatives

 

[bishblaize]

A whole bunch of articles in the Guardian/Observer this weekend about Labour and the leadership election.

The Observer view on the Labour leadership election If Jeremy Corbyn is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.

Labour’s lost voters may never return again, study finds Focus group interviews in five key constituencies reveal rejection of Ed Miliband and distrust over the economy, taxation, welfare, union links and immigration

Demoralised, dejected and defeated, Labour faces a fight for its very existence The Conservatives have stolen the centre ground and consigned the opposition to the wilderness for five more years. Many Labour MPs now believe the party must eschew the left and find a middle way back to power

A Jeremy Corbyn triumph would shame his opponents Labour’s leadership candidates must confront the man who could lead the party into the electoral wilderness

 

[Ubik]

Alistair Darling wrote one backing Kendall as well, for all the good it'll do.

 

[bishblaize]

George Osborne writes in the Guardian encouraging Labour MPs to support the welfare bill.

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ne-progressive-reform-welfare-benefits-system

As far as political calculations go, Osborne has been playing Labour brilliantly recently. That budget completely outfoxed them and had just the kind of divisive impact he wanted. The PLP's falling into civil war trying to figure out how to react. Now he's chucking a hand grenade into the battle, forcing Labour as far left as he can. If he can get the new Labour leader elected on a far left platform that is perceived by many as pro-benefits and anti-work then he's going to be delighted. If Corbyn gets in, so much the better.

 

[Untied]

George Osborne writes in the Guardian encouraging Labour MPs to support the welfare bill.

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ne-progressive-reform-welfare-benefits-system

As far as political calculations go, Osborne has been playing Labour brilliantly recently. That budget completely outfoxed them and had just the kind of divisive impact he wanted. The PLP's falling into civil war trying to figure out how to react. Now he's chucking a hand grenade into the battle, forcing Labour as far left as he can. If he can get the new Labour leader elected on a far left platform that is perceived by many as pro-benefits and anti-work then he's going to be delighted. If Corbyn gets in, so much the better.

While this country has just 1% of the world’s population and produces 4% of its wealth, it accounts for 7% of global welfare spending. That’s not sustainable.

So he is either an idiot or a manipulative liar (it's the second)

Anyway, Osbourne has been politically very astute (in terms of winning arguments, winning power and playing games). But I genuinely think that's all politics is to him. A game to be played and won, whilst the policies he plays with make the country objectively and irreversibly worse.

But I honestly don't know how Labour or the left as whole can fight him, particularly in the face of his media propaganda machine.

 

[The Mitcher]

So he is either an idiot or a manipulative liar (it's the second)

Anyway, Osbourne has been politically very astute (in terms of winning arguments, winning power and playing games). But I genuinely think that's all politics is to him. A game to be played and won, whilst the policies he plays with make the country objectively and irreversibly worse.

But I honestly don't know how Labour or the left as whole can fight him, particularly in the face of his media propaganda machine.

He's not even an economist, surely get someone who is actually good at debating AND is qualified in economics, he'd look like a mug I reckon.

 

[Ubik]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...m-not-vote-against-unsupportable-welfare-bill

This is the reason I don't like Burnham much. He'll play to the crowds and call Harman a Tory to win applause then goes and does what was being asked in the first place.

 

[Untied]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...m-not-vote-against-unsupportable-welfare-bill

This is the reason I don't like Burnham much. He'll play to the crowds and call Harman a Tory to win applause then goes and does what was being asked in the first place.

I'm not a fan either, and it seems Cooper's doing the same

 

[Smores]

The idea that Labour remaining strong on some of its leftist principles as being 'idealistic' and unelectable is becoming just as much of a fallacy as Osbournes economic mantra. It's a scare tactic akin to the Tory line on the SNP.

What reason will people have to vote Lavour if they occupy the same ground as the tories?

If they're going to win they need to reinvigorate the left with Corvyn letting him push hard on the economic and welfare whilst also pushing strongly on centre right issues. The last Labour government avoided issues such as immigration as they felt it was a trap which meant it wasn't communicating to a certain base, if they propose fair policies people will vote Lavour rather than the nasty party.

 

[Ubik]

The idea that Labour remaining strong on some of its leftist principles as being 'idealistic' and unelectable is becoming just as much of a fallacy as Osbournes economic mantra. It's a scare tactic akin to the Tory line on the SNP.

What reason will people have to vote Lavour if they occupy the same ground as the tories?

If they're going to win they need to reinvigorate the left with Corvyn letting him push hard on the economic and welfare whilst also pushing strongly on centre right issues. The last Labour government avoided issues such as immigration as they felt it was a trap which meant it wasn't communicating to a certain base, if they propose fair policies people will vote Lavour rather than the nasty party.

It's not a scare tactic, it's basic political science. "Reinvigorating the base" is exactly what the Tories did after '97 and it allowed Blair to dominate for over a decade from the centre.

 

[soap]

The idea that Labour remaining strong on some of its leftist principles as being 'idealistic' and unelectable is becoming just as much of a fallacy as Osbournes economic mantra. It's a scare tactic akin to the Tory line on the SNP.

What reason will people have to vote Lavour if they occupy the same ground as the tories?

If they're going to win they need to reinvigorate the left with Corvyn letting him push hard on the economic and welfare whilst also pushing strongly on centre right issues. The last Labour government avoided issues such as immigration as they felt it was a trap which meant it wasn't communicating to a certain base, if they propose fair policies people will vote Lavour rather than the nasty party.

Yeah, as I've said before, the immigration issue is fairly massive, and Labour are the cause of the problem in many peoples eyes. I doubt Cooper or Burnham have much of a chance reversing that. Corbyn possibly seeing as he's clearly not a Westminster stooge. I don't actually know exactly what his position on immigration - I've heard him talk sense about how refugee crisis' aren't going to stop unless we change our foreign policy, but I'm not sure how well that will go over with voters. Easy for wankers to spin it as "hurr durr loony left blame Britain for everything".

 

[bishblaize]

Yeah, as I've said before, the immigration issue is fairly massive, and Labour are the cause of the problem in many peoples eyes. I doubt Cooper or Burnham have much of a chance reversing that. Corbyn possibly seeing as he's clearly not a Westminster stooge. I don't actually know exactly what his position on immigration - I've heard him talk sense about how refugee crisis' aren't going to stop unless we change our foreign policy, but I'm not sure how well that will go over with voters. Easy for wankers to spin it as "hurr durr loony left blame Britain for everything".

He's very much from the open door school of immigration policy.

Also the issue isn't really about asylum seekers & refugees any more, Labour got to grips with that in 2005, just about. The concern is very much about migrant workers these days, mostly EU citizens.

 

[Wolverine]

YouGov poll on voter preference for Labour leadership

Corbyn 43%
Burnham 26%
Cooper 20%
Kendall 11%

 

[SteveJ]

Thank f*ck for that.

 

[Ubik]

YouGov poll on voter preference for Labour leadership

Corbyn 43%
Burnham 26%
Cooper 20%
Kendall 11%

Wonder what those MPs that helped get Corbyn on the ballot are thinking now.

 

[soap]

He's very much from the open door school of immigration policy.

Also the issue isn't really about asylum seekers & refugees any more, Labour got to grips with that in 2005, just about. The concern is very much about migrant workers these days, mostly EU citizens.

Kind of suspected as much tbh! I tried to find a direct quote from him regarding his stance on immigration policy and couldn't find much, do you have a link by any chance?

A sidenote - and this isnt really relevant to the Labour leadership. Are you sure people's main concern with regards to immigration is Europeans? It would definitely seem to me that most of the daft feckers who vote for UKIP , or just people who see immigration as THE issue (and there are lots of them) are more concerned about... well, Muslims, basically.

 

[Sweet Square]

Kind of suspected as much tbh! I tried to find a direct quote from him regarding his stance on immigration policy and couldn't find much, do you have a link by any chance?

A sidenote - and this isnt really relevant to the Labour leadership. Are you sure people's main concern with regards to immigration is Europeans? It would definitely seem to me that most of the daft feckers who vote for UKIP , or just people who see immigration as THE issue (and there are lots of them) are more concerned about... well, Muslims, basically.

From my experience it just seems to mainly be any form of immigration(UKIP in particular openly attack Eastern Europeans more than any one eles). The problem Labour have with the immigration debate is that the place's with the least amount of immigration are the most against it. So the British people are well....wrong on this, so The Labour really need try and find a way to not only change the narrative on immigration but to show people that they are in the wrong. Which I'm sure will go down great with the voting public.

 

[Jippy]

YouGov poll on voter preference for Labour leadership

Corbyn 43%
Burnham 26%
Cooper 20%
Kendall 11%

Feck, just seen that. Stormin' Corbyn.

 

[Kaos]

What's almost as sweet as Corbyn being the frontrunner is that vile wench Kendall dropping to 11%

 

[Ducklegs]

From my experience it just seems to mainly be any form of immigration(UKIP in particular openly attack Eastern Europeans more than any one eles). The problem Labour have with the immigration debate is that the place's with the least amount of immigration are the most against it. So the British people are well....wrong on this, so The Labour really need try and find a way to not only change the narrative on immigration but to show people that they are in the wrong. Which I'm sure will go down great with the voting public.

I wouldnt be too quick to judge the british people if your conclusion is based on that stunning argument.

 

[Ducklegs]

What's almost as sweet as Corbyn being the frontrunner is that vile wench Kendall dropping to 11%

Corbyn winning will be hilarious.
People should be careful what they wish for.

 

[Kaos]

Corbyn winning will be hilarious.
People should be careful what they wish for.

Like a Tory government?

 

[rednev]

The only positive I can find in Corbyn winning would be the opening up of an opportunity for David Miliband to return to Parliament and take over as leader when the party realises that Corbyn is a certain ticket to defeat.

 

[Kaos]

The only positive I can find in Corbyn winning would be the opening up of an opportunity for David Miliband to return to Parliament and take over as leader when the party realises that Corbyn is a certain ticket to defeat.

Why not just go a step further and hope to bring back Blair?

 

[soap]

so The Labour really need try and find a way to not only change the narrative on immigration but to show people that they are in the wrong.

Their tact recently seems to be to accept that the electorate are right about everything and to change their position accordingly

 

[jeff_goldblum]

From my experience it just seems to mainly be any form of immigration(UKIP in particular openly attack Eastern Europeans more than any one eles). The problem Labour have with the immigration debate is that the place's with the least amount of immigration are the most against it. So the British people are well....wrong on this, so The Labour really need try and find a way to not only change the narrative on immigration but to show people that they are in the wrong. Which I'm sure will go down great with the voting public.

This is definitely true. I did some work during my degree which backed up that very point. White British folks who live in areas with the fewest non-white resident are more likely to be distrustful of other races and more concerned about immigration.

 

[Smores]

From my experience it just seems to mainly be any form of immigration(UKIP in particular openly attack Eastern Europeans more than any one eles). The problem Labour have with the immigration debate is that the place's with the least amount of immigration are the most against it. So the British people are well....wrong on this, so The Labour really need try and find a way to not only change the narrative on immigration but to show people that they are in the wrong. Which I'm sure will go down great with the voting public.

I'm not sure they need to point out that people are wrong, they just need to put spin on new and old policies. Those just getting by are constantly told of a multitude of issues that make life seem unfair but they don't actually know the ins and outs of immigration policy.

You could dress up existing non-EU immigration policies with a slight change and they'd be a grattude from many of these folk. It just isn't as easy to get in as the daily mail and channel 4 portray.

The EU is much more troublesome but it has to be debated as a deliberate choice because of the value it brings in. I tend to believe that It's only in the perceived lack of action against all immigration that EU immigration is attacked.

 

[Smores]

I expected it to fall between Corbyn and Kendal. Burnham will just be another empty politician that the voters won't believe in

 

[Ubik]

The only positive I can find in Corbyn winning would be the opening up of an opportunity for David Miliband to return to Parliament and take over as leader when the party realises that Corbyn is a certain ticket to defeat.

Yeah I thought that recently, the clamour would be fairly large. If Labour hasn't been split in two in true 80s fashion that is.

Heh, and people thought it would be the Tories getting fecked by internal strife this parliament. Good job Labour.

 

[bishblaize]

The only positive I can find in Corbyn winning would be the opening up of an opportunity for David Miliband to return to Parliament and take over as leader when the party realises that Corbyn is a certain ticket to defeat.

I get this horrible feeling that people will only be convinced of the folly of going with Corbyn when they actually see the smoking wreckage.

 

[Ubik]

I get this horrible feeling that people will only be convinced of the folly of going with Corbyn when they actually see the smoking wreckage.

If the Labour right actually stop being massive pussies this time hopefully it won't get to that stage.

 

[Ducklegs]

Like a Tory government?

I have no problem with the current government.