Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win

[Sweet Square]

Starmer biggest problem, being a remain campaigner, could turn out to be an asset if leaving the EU turns out to be as bad as many believe.

Doubt it. One of the reasons why Brexit has being billed as a vote for ''national independence'' is to put the idea of sacrifice into peoples minds, so that when shit hits the fan, they'll be more accepting of the hurt. There might be some protests in the cities but the northern pro brexit towns, Labour lost last Thursday will just become more alienated and more right wing.

Suffering isn't ennobling. So expect some pretty nasty far right politics in the coming years.

 

[sullydnl]

Starmer having been remain won't be any advantage, bar presumably meaning he's at least somewhat economically literate. The hope would be that it doesn't prove to be an active disadvantage due to remain being politically dead. Will it still matter whether people were remain/leave after five years of that not being the central dynamic of political debate around Brexit?

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[Redlambs]

If anything all that shows is the party really has become hugely out of touch and needs a total revamp.

What were the figures like leading up to the Blair years though, I wonder?

Edit: Hmmm before that it was 4,7,10. Blair spiked it heavily.

 

[Ubik]

If anything all that shows is the party really has become hugely out of touch and needs a total revamp.

What were the figures like leading up to the Blair years though, I wonder?

Edit: Hmmm before that it was 4,7,10. Blair spiked it heavily.

Bingo. Obviously there has been a trend downwards for Labour in the north over a long period, but when people start their "look at this decline!" numbers with the 1997 historic landslide, you have to question their motives somewhat. I also like the way it just says "lost" for this election, rather than put the actual figure in which shows a bigger Labour-Tory swing than the trend - the Tory majority there is now 7,926, bigger than Labour's in 2010, and that after 9 years of opposition.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

What you don't mention is that the 97 result was Labour's biggest % share of the vote ever in Bishop Auckland

 

[Sweet Square]

Bingo. Obviously there has been a trend downwards for Labour in the north over a long period, but when people start their "look at this decline!" numbers with the 1997 historic landslide, you have to question their motives somewhat. I also like the way it just says "lost" for this election, rather than put the actual figure in which shows a bigger Labour-Tory swing than the trend - the Tory majority there is now 7,926, bigger than Labour's in 2010, and that after 9 years of opposition.

What you don't mention is that the 97 result was Labour's biggest % share of the vote ever in Bishop Auckland

I didn't write the tweet, you nerds. I just posted it because it was somewhat interesting.

 

[nickm]

Some credence to what Blair is saying, as there usually is to be fair to him, but once again he proves incapable of even a hint of introspection. Perhaps he'd like to address his own role in the decay of Labour and why the party has become, to use his words, a 'far left [party] turned into a glorified protest movement'.

Blair resigned 12 years and 4 Prime Ministers ago. You can only blame Blair for the current state of Labour for so long. If anything, I blame Blair's successors for their complacency in allowing the far left back in.

 

[Redlambs]

Blair resigned 12 years and 4 Prime Ministers ago. You can only blame Blair for the current state of Labour for so long.

Oh but they can and will continue long into the future.

Whilst telling everyone else to lay off Corbyn

 

[MikeUpNorth]

If anything all that shows is the party really has become hugely out of touch and needs a total revamp.

What were the figures like leading up to the Blair years though, I wonder?

Edit: Hmmm before that it was 4,7,10. Blair spiked it heavily.

Yes. So, to summarise, when Blair became leader the seat had a 10k Labour majority. Blair boosted it to 21k. And then when Blair stepped down as leader after 10 years as Prime Minister, Labour still had a 10k majority.

It's like people blaming Fergie for United being shit now.

 

[Frosty]

Good thread explaining the damage to Labour was done long before they settled on their atrocious Brexit position.

Peter Kyle is my MP and I am delighted he was returned. A great constituency MP and always talking sense.

 

[nickm]

We did some research on landlords this year and were surprised to find that over 90% of landlords only own one property. With the average UK rent at about £11,640 per year, minus about 10% of use a lettings agency and about 10% for repairs and upkeep, even on a property where there's no mortgage to pay, the average landlord is only pulling in about £9000 per year for a property. And that's the average, if you live in Rochdale you're pulling down about £4500 a year. That's no pittance but it doesnt make you a millionaire either, so it never felt sensible to make landlords a target.

Still, income aside, there's still a nice potential capital pile to dip into when you are older, that someone else is paying for.

 

[Buster15]

You can pick up on a specific seat and show pretty much what you like.
The fact remains that New Labour won 408 seats in 1997.
408 with a predominantly centre left policy. And won 3 straight elections.
And now, 203 with a hard left policy and given a good kicking.
History tells us that you have to appeal to the vast majority of the electorate.
And hard left policies are not going to win you an election. All you will become is a minority protest party.
Full stop.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It's actually bullshit though. Look at Labour's percentage of the vote in Bishop Auckland:
1992: 50.0%
1997: 65.9%
2001: 58.8%
2005: 50.0%
2010: 39.0%
2015: 41.4%
2017: 48.1%
2019: 35.9%

And the Labour swing:
1992: +2.0%
1997: +15.9%
2001: -7.1%
2005: -8.8%
2010: -11.1%
2015: +2.4%
2017: +6.7%
2019: -12.1%

 

[nickm]

This article from the guardian in 2012 is worth reflecting on while we think about how to win back the traditional base:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/05/why-working-class-people-vote-conservative

I think its central premise is right that those of us on the left often mistakenly think economics and helping the vulnerable is all people should care about.

That's pretty interesting. Leftie ideologues base their entire existence on hewing to a class based analysis (the financial crisis only strengthened it), and old habits are hard to break. It's one reason why I don't think the current down-weapons invitations to the moderates from the ideologues will last.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

And @Redlambs as you've replied to the post. Bishop is an odd constituency with a lot of weird demographic stuff going on. Bishop Auckland itself was a working class town surrounded by old pit villages and has had the typical industrial town story - since the 60s it's been in heavy decline with the death knell for industry coming in the Thatcher years. In recent years the centre and the farming villages towards the Pennines have seen a bit of an upturn, largely because they've started building shitloads of commuter/retirement houses, whilst the pit villages and the outskirts of the town have been left to rot. 'Emigration' rates of young folk are high because there's balls-all there for them, whilst 'immigration' of middle class commuters and retirees is common because outside of the places which show the scars of industry it's a really beautiful area. Barnard Castle and the area around is an especially desirable place to live and has always been a Tory enclave. Overall, the constituency is the sort of place where continued Labour pluralities have increasingly relied on the continued loyalty of their core vote holding up to steady things against a growing number of Tory and swing voters. That was already crumbling as nothing really got better under Blair's government, but Brexit hasn't helped and the Corbyn factor was likely in play as well. On top of that, the incumbent MP was deeply unpopular. She got caught in the expenses scandal, did feck all for her constituents and once opened an event in a small village called Ingleton with a speech waxing lyrical about Ingleton's beautiful waterfalls and caves having googled the wrong Ingleton. When I was campaigning in Bishop I was specifically advised not to mention her because even in Labour circles she was disliked.

 

[Redlambs]

And @Redlambs as you've replied to the post. Bishop is an odd constituency with a lot of weird demographic stuff going on. Bishop Auckland itself was a working class town surrounded by old pit villages and has had the typical industrial town story - since the 60s it's been in heavy decline with the death knell for industry coming in the Thatcher years. In recent years the centre and the farming villages towards the Pennines have seen a bit of an upturn, largely because they've started building shitloads of commuter/retirement houses, whilst the pit villages and the outskirts of the town have been left to rot. 'Emigration' rates of young folk are high because there's balls-all there for them, whilst 'immigration' of middle class commuters and retirees is common because outside of the places which show the scars of industry it's a really beautiful area. Barnard Castle and the area around is an especially desirable place to live and has always been a Tory enclave. Overall, the constituency is the sort of place where continued Labour pluralities have increasingly relied on the continued loyalty of their core vote pushing back against a growing number of Tory voters. That was already crumbling as nothing really got better under Blair's government, but Brexit hasn't helped and the Corbyn factor was likely in play as well. On top of that, the incumbent MP was deeply unpopular. She got caught in the expenses scandal, did feck all for her constituents and once opened an event in a small village called Ingleton with a speech waxing lyrical about Ingleton's beautiful waterfalls and caves having googled the wrong Ingleton. When I was campaigning in Bishop I was specifically advised not to mention her because even in Labour circles she was disliked.

Interesting read, thanks.

He picked the wrong place to push his agenda on then, especially as he can't even spell it.

 

[esmufc07]

And @Redlambs as you've replied to the post. Bishop is an odd constituency with a lot of weird demographic stuff going on. Bishop Auckland itself was a working class town surrounded by old pit villages and has had the typical industrial town story - since the 60s it's been in heavy decline with the death knell for industry coming in the Thatcher years. In recent years the centre and the farming villages towards the Pennines have seen a bit of an upturn, largely because they've started building shitloads of commuter/retirement houses, whilst the pit villages and the outskirts of the town have been left to rot. 'Emigration' rates of young folk are high because there's balls-all there for them, whilst 'immigration' of middle class commuters and retirees is common because outside of the places which show the scars of industry it's a really beautiful area. Barnard Castle and the area around is an especially desirable place to live and has always been a Tory enclave. Overall, the constituency is the sort of place where continued Labour pluralities have increasingly relied on the continued loyalty of their core vote holding up to steady things against a growing number of Tory and swing voters. That was already crumbling as nothing really got better under Blair's government, but Brexit hasn't helped and the Corbyn factor was likely in play as well. On top of that, the incumbent MP was deeply unpopular. She got caught in the expenses scandal, did feck all for her constituents and once opened an event in a small village called Ingleton with a speech waxing lyrical about Ingleton's beautiful waterfalls and caves having googled the wrong Ingleton. When I was campaigning in Bishop I was specifically advised not to mention her because even in Labour circles she was disliked.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

 

[MikeUpNorth]

MP Helen Goodman's Ingleton blunder a 'terrible mistake'

 

[Sweet Square]

She got caught in the expenses scandal, did feck all for her constituents and once opened an event in a small village called Ingleton with a speech waxing lyrical about Ingleton's beautiful waterfalls and caves having googled the wrong Ingleton. When I was campaigning in Bishop I was specifically advised not to mention her because even in Labour circles she was disliked.

Interesting read, thanks.

He picked the wrong place to push his agenda on then, especially as he can't even spell it.

Did the nerd part offend you ? Soz mate. #GamerGate

 

[Redlambs]

Did the nerd part offend you ? Soz mate.

Huh?

 

[Sweet Square]

Huh?

I posted one tweet and your talking about ''agenda'' pushing.

Its a bit odd, thats all.

 

[Redlambs]

I posted one tweet and your talking about ''agenda'' pushing.

Its a bit odd, thats all.

not you, you bell-whiff, the guy who tweeted!

And when did you call me a nerd? I mean I am one, but it still hurts I missed it

 

[Sweet Square]

not you, you bell-whiff, the guy who tweeted!

Oh! My bad.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

Interesting read, thanks.

He picked the wrong place to push his agenda on then, especially as he can't even spell it.

It's one of those situations where there are a lot of factors in play and if your audience don't know much about the place it's easy to pick your favourite and spin a narrative off it, whether that be blaming Blair, Brexit or Corbyn.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

MP Helen Goodman's Ingleton blunder a 'terrible mistake'

Hahahaha that's the one. To be fair to her she'd only represented the constituency for nine years...

 

[esmufc07]

MP Helen Goodman's Ingleton blunder a 'terrible mistake'

Brilliant, I’d have loved to have been in attendance to gauge people’s reaction

 

[Sweet Square]

Mrs Goodman, told BBC Tees:

"When I was given this piece of paper saying there are caves in Ingleton I thought, 'Fancy that, you learn something new every day'.

"That just shows how wrong you can be."

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Brilliant, I’d have loved to have been in attendance to gauge people’s reaction

Maybe you should attend the Ingleton Village Fair and Classic Vehicle Show next year and ask people about it?

 

[esmufc07]

Maybe you should attend the Ingleton Village Fair and Classic Vehicle Show next year and ask people about it?

I will go and ask where the waterfalls are.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Ingleton in Yorkshire is lovely mind.

 

[nickm]

This article from the guardian in 2012 is worth reflecting on while we think about how to win back the traditional base:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/05/why-working-class-people-vote-conservative

I think its central premise is right that those of us on the left often mistakenly think economics and helping the vulnerable is all people should care about.

... and just at the right moment here’s a really perceptive tweet storm that applies the thinking in that article to the election and Brexit.

 

[Mal donaghy]

The same Andy Burnham who famously once abstained on a welfare bill then exclaimed shortly afterwards 'we cannot abstain on a welfare bill'? He's far too much of an amorphous blob to lead the party.

Go on then tony Benn, who ?? Give me your Pearl's, how about another unlikeble cnut ??

 

[711]

Ingleton in Yorkshire is lovely mind.

It is. Superb walking country all year round.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

... and just at the right moment here’s a really perceptive tweet storm that applies the thinking in that article to the election and Brexit.

The twitter thread is spot on, I think.

 

[Adisa]

Burgon has no self awareness.

 

[Redlambs]

Oh! My bad.

No worries mate, I can see how you thought that

 

[BobbyManc]

Go on then tony Benn, who ?? Give me your Pearl's, how about another unlikeble cnut ??

calm down mate, didn't realise you had such a thing for Andy Burnham. I'll try not to denigrate the great man in the future. And thanks for the flattering comparison to Tony Benn, much appreciated.

 

[Sweet Square]

You can pick up on a specific seat and show pretty much what you like.
The fact remains that New Labour won 408 seats in 1997.
408 with a predominantly centre left policy. And won 3 straight elections.
And now, 203 with a hard left policy and given a good kicking.
History tells us that you have to appeal to the vast majority of the electorate.
And hard left policies are not going to win you an election. All you will become is a minority protest party.
Full stop.

Honestly the election result would have be a lot easier to take if Labour did in fact run on a far left platform. Sadly this country instead rejected basic social democratic reforms.