I had this argument with a friend last night. What it came down to from him was "Ortiz was nice and smiled so I don't care about the PED's, amphetamines aren't PED's, Bonds was an ass and Clemmens was a traitor for going to the Yankees so I'm glad they got left out."
MLB 2021
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Don't think I'd need three guesses to figure out where your friend is from! Is he a HoF voter by any chance?
It's fecking ridiculous that these writers are so sanctimonious - no idea why the voting isn't up to the players, frankly.
Don't think I'd need three guesses to figure out where your friend is from! Is he a HoF voter by any chance?
It's fecking ridiculous that these writers are so sanctimonious - no idea why the voting isn't up to the players, frankly.
He's actually from Wisconsin but likes the Red Sox for some reason as his second team (after the Brewers). He also thinks Mantle was easily better than Mays, so I take everything with an appropriate grain of salt.
Never forget these are the same voters who refuse to let any player be unanimous on the first ballot.
Was going to post your second comment. They are antiquated dinosaurs.
Hah well guess the old saying about assuming is right - wouldn't have guessed Wisconsin!
Mantle over Mays is a ridiculous argument (especially from a Red Sox fan) - has your friend ever heard of defense?
He was arguing that DH's belong in the HoF, so no
Hah you've got me there - fecking hell I feel like you've set me up for the long con!
That said, I'd argue there's an inherent difference in being a massive net negative on defense (e.g. Mantle) versus not participating at all! Also just as a thought experiment - do you think NL pitchers should be weighted more heavily than AL pitchers because they hit?
To your first point: No, but when I saw your post I started laughing.
To the second point: No, as their main role is not that of a position player. Pitchers must field and pitch, just like position players must field and hit. I would not factor in the hitting of good hitting pitchers (Glavin, Bumgarner, etc.) because even for those guys they are a net negative of any minor league level hitter.
But fielding for pitchers is pretty limited - for instance, Greg Maddux had 1793 chances in total (putouts + assists + errors) in 23 seasons. David Ortiz had 2169 chances in 20 seasons. Obviously this is apples and oranges to some extent because Maddux is the best defensive pitcher of all time while Ortiz was a part-time first baseman, but you can't argue that pitchers field while Ortiz didn't on this basis!
That's a bit of a cherry pick though because of the position. For instance, Willie Mays only played 84 games at 1B but still had 709 Chances (8.4/g). He played 2374 games in CF and had 5,992 (2.5/g). That's about a 3 fold increase by position. Maddux had his 1793 chances in 744 games (2.4/g), right in line with CF Mays. Ortiz had 7.8/g, right in line with 1B Mays.
Oh completely agreed and I apologize for being irritating - playing a bit of devil's advocate here as I'm not some sort of David Ortiz stan or anything; much obliged for the back and forth!
I guess my point is though that it's hard to say pitchers have to both catch and field to a greater extent than the likes of Ortiz when the best defensive pitcher ever was involved in fewer actions overall than Ortiz despite playing 3 years longer. Certainly most of Ortiz's actions were easier to handle, but I suppose I just take issue with your characterization that a pitcher pitches and fields whilst someone like Ortiz only hits - when the reality is that Ortiz was literally move involved defensively than Maddux on a per season basis (regardless of effectiveness, difficulty, etc).
Don''t mind the back and forth as I can talk baseball all day. You inspired me to spin up and update me baseball database. I am doing a little deep dive to see if I am a DH truther or not
I think my point still stands though. The difficulty of the position to field is crucial to many of the WAR calculations we use. oWAR for example adds a positional adjustment (DH has the worst adjustment obviously and 1B is right behind). Pitcher is kind of nebulous as it gets hidden by how bad they are as hitters. 1B, and catcher will always lead the way for chances because they, by the nature of their position, will be involved in the most plays. The importance of those involvements is relative to the difficulty of the chances, not necessarily the quantity.
Don''t mind the back and forth as I can talk baseball all day. You inspired me to spin up and update me baseball database. I am doing a little deep dive to see if I am a DH truther or not
I think my point still stands though. The difficulty of the position to field is crucial to many of the WAR calculations we use. oWAR for example adds a positional adjustment (DH has the worst adjustment obviously and 1B is right behind). Pitcher is kind of nebulous as it gets hidden by how bad they are as hitters. 1B, and catcher will always lead the way for chances because they, by the nature of their position, will be involved in the most plays. The importance of those involvements is relative to the difficulty of the chances, not necessarily the quantity.
Oh for sure - but this gets me back to the point that Ortiz is a 50-55 WAR player despite the negative adjustments as a DH inherent in the calculation, and is thus a worthy HoFer!
Ok, so database fired up and PowerBI dashboard built. It's Data time! I used 2 advanced stats to look for Ortiz's best comps. I started with RAR (Runs above Replacement) because it does not have a defensive component. This will allow me to find his equal in offensive metrics and it gives a bit of a defensive boost to position players. Also, I did NOT factor in any post season stats. Making the post season in baseball is a team effort and with the expansion of the playoffs wildly skews towards modern players.
So who are Ortiz's closest comps? I looked at the players with the smallest difference between RAR and WAR and these are his Comps:
Hilariously his best comp is a pitcher from the early 1900's. Regardless, the only player from anywhere close to his era is David Wright and is he going to be a first ballot HoF selection? Will he even get in? The data suggests he should have a better chance than Ortiz. Interestingly, the only players in his comp group who made the HoF were also DH's.....
So lets zero in on his more closely aligned peers. Lets only look at players who played from 1980 onwards:
Looking at these guys he is the only one who has made the HoF. Rollins did not make it this year (only 9% of the vote) and the rest (other than Wright) are already off the ballot or not eligible. Of the rest I would guess that Mauer has the best shot, but I think he misses out. Also, Evan Longoria......
Finally, lets see who his closest peers are who were already in the HoF and who started playing post 1962 (no reason for this year, it's just where my slider landed):
Of these guys he has significantly worse WAR than all by Pucket who really doesn't belong in the hall. The closes guy is Jim Rice who had to get in via the Veterans committee!!
Ok, so final chart. Let's look at all the players not in the Hall with 2,400 hits and an OPS > .800:
Look at that list. Not a single one of those guys will make the Hall (or are already out).
All of that said I have no real issue with Ortiz in general. I just think his fist ballot entry is absurd and not deserved for what he achieved (compared to his peers and predecessors) in the regular season.
So who are Ortiz's closest comps? I looked at the players with the smallest difference between RAR and WAR and these are his Comps:
Hilariously his best comp is a pitcher from the early 1900's
. Regardless, the only player from anywhere close to his era is David Wright and is he going to be a first ballot HoF selection? Will he even get in? The data suggests he should have a better chance than Ortiz. Interestingly, the only players in his comp group who made the HoF were also DH's.....So lets zero in on his more closely aligned peers. Lets only look at players who played from 1980 onwards:
Looking at these guys he is the only one who has made the HoF. Rollins did not make it this year (only 9% of the vote) and the rest (other than Wright) are already off the ballot or not eligible. Of the rest I would guess that Mauer has the best shot, but I think he misses out. Also, Evan Longoria......
Finally, lets see who his closest peers are who were already in the HoF and who started playing post 1962 (no reason for this year, it's just where my slider landed):
Of these guys he has significantly worse WAR than all by Pucket who really doesn't belong in the hall. The closes guy is Jim Rice who had to get in via the Veterans committee!!
Ok, so final chart. Let's look at all the players not in the Hall with 2,400 hits and an OPS > .800:
All of that said I have no real issue with Ortiz in general. I just think his fist ballot entry is absurd and not deserved for what he achieved (compared to his peers and predecessors) in the regular season.
Echoed by Tim Keown, probably others. Keown: I'll preface this by saying David Ortiz had a no-doubt, first-ballot Hall of Fame career, but this vote at this time is a big win for the power of personality. Ortiz's affability and post-retirement broadcasting gig helped pave the way for a first-ballot election. Given his link to PEDs and the general stingy nature of the current group of voters, it would have been a safer bet to assume that he would have to wait at least a year -- if only on principle -- to gain election.
I was shocked to see Scott Rolen received 63% vote. If these clowns are going to vote Rolen into the sacred Hall, there are plenty others that should be enshrined IMO.
Ok, so database fired up and PowerBI dashboard built. It's Data time! I used 2 advanced stats to look for Ortiz's best comps. I started with RAR (Runs above Replacement) because it does not have a defensive component. This will allow me to find his equal in offensive metrics and it gives a bit of a defensive boost to position players. Also, I did NOT factor in any post season stats. Making the post season in baseball is a team effort and with the expansion of the playoffs wildly skews towards modern players.
So who are Ortiz's closest comps? I looked at the players with the smallest difference between RAR and WAR and these are his Comps:
Hilariously his best comp is a pitcher from the early 1900's
So lets zero in on his more closely aligned peers. Lets only look at players who played from 1980 onwards:
Looking at these guys he is the only one who has made the HoF. Rollins did not make it this year (only 9% of the vote) and the rest (other than Wright) are already off the ballot or not eligible. Of the rest I would guess that Mauer has the best shot, but I think he misses out. Also, Evan Longoria......
Finally, lets see who his closest peers are who were already in the HoF and who started playing post 1962 (no reason for this year, it's just where my slider landed):
Of these guys he has significantly worse WAR than all by Pucket who really doesn't belong in the hall. The closes guy is Jim Rice who had to get in via the Veterans committee!!
Ok, so final chart. Let's look at all the players not in the Hall with 2,400 hits and an OPS > .800:
Look at that list. Not a single one of those guys will make the Hall (or are already out).
All of that said I have no real issue with Ortiz in general. I just think his fist ballot entry is absurd and not deserved for what he achieved (compared to his peers and predecessors) in the regular season.
Hah I appreciate all the work you've put in here!
Quick point though - RAR does include defense, baserunning, and is adjusted by position (at least on Fangraphs, which is where I think you've pulled your numbers). I think you'll find that most players will be very similar by those two metrics - I suppose that this is probably a better metric for consistency year over year?
The red flag here is Evan Longoria - he's an elite elite defender whose defense accounts for like 40% of his WAR total - so if your calculation was working as intended he should be very very far down the list.
Also just a broader point - I agree with you to some extent that the regular season should be weighted more heavily, but I do think Ortiz is an edge case due to his ridiculous postseason production (plus some of the unquantifiable esoteric stuff vis a vis reversing the fortunes of the sad sack Red Sox).
Well, I am an idiot, I meant to look at RAA. Don't do stats with a 102 temp kids, you tend to look stupid.
Knew you’d be the first to opine on his retirement!
Just in time before automatic balls and strikes...good riddance.
If I didn't have a meeting with my companies VP right now I would already have a celebratory Guinness poured. If I was as bad at my job as West is was at his I would have been fired on day 2.