I've been reflecting on some of the big academy 'misses' of the last few years; those players who fans, and sometimes staff, were convinced would establish themselves as first teamers. I've been a huge proponent of the academy, and I always will be, but I'm aware the last few years have been a bit of a gut punch to those who follow and those in and around the academy. So I'm going to try to briefly breakdown where I believe United have gone wrong recently.
United saw a number of academy graduates debut during the Fergie years; some because they were extremely talented, and others because they were hard workers and/or a good fit. We've seen a host of academy players make Premier League debuts post-Fergie - but only a handful have had a significant impact. Over the last ten years, there are only eight players with with >50 United appearances: Rashford, Greenwood, Williams, Lingard, Januzaj, Pereira, McTominay and Elanga. Other than McTominay, I was certain those listed would make it. Now, if you were to survey United fans, the majority would likely only deem Rashford a success. Pereira, Lingard, Elanga and McTominay all felt the ire of the fans online and in some small pockets of OT. So, in the eyes of some, academy players are not only expected to become regular starters, they are expected to become key contributors. When United are successful, academy players can help fill holes in a squad, as was the case during the fruitful years. Academy players are not currently afforded that role.
Those of us who are invested in the academy saw what, we believed, was a golden generation circa 2018. United had Gomes, Garner, Greenwood, Mengi, Williams, Chong, Levitt, Laird and Elanga coming through in a two-three year span; whilst Tuanzebe and Henderson were slightly older and, despite not being considered in the '18 crop, were on the cusp of becoming first-teamers. People hoped the '18 crop could perhaps rival the '92 crop - and now those people, myself included, look silly. So, what went wrong with that '18 team?
Well, firstly, injuries really hampered Laird, Mengi and Axel. That triumvirate are amongst the best defenders United have produced this century. If they go on to have careers as successful as Johnny Evans and Michael Keane, that would be a great success. The Manchester United midfield has troubled every United side over the last 10 years. Instability in midfield meant that Garner, Levitt and Gomes had limited opportunities to be embedded into the team. Midfield is an extremely difficult place to play, it's even more difficult in a team that has ambitions to win the league. Levitt's strength was his range of passing and dictating the pace of play, Garner was earmarked for his defensive abilities, tenacity and passing, whilst Gomes was seen as a number 10, though I preferred him as an 8, with exceptional playmaking ability. The attributes and traits they showed, albeit at youth-level, were there for all to see. These teenagers needed time to grow and learn. They were ultimately never afforded this. Gomes was a key contributor at Lille last season and, as a 6, was one of the player's at the U21 Euro's. Elanga, Chong and Williams were exceptional in the academy sides, exuding technical ability, confidence and desire. In my opinion, all three should have had a better pathway to the first team that included sensible loans. Outside of Williams' Norwich and a few other outliers (Garner's Forest loan, Amad's Sunderland loan, and Henderson had a great loan progression), I believe United's loan system hasn't put their youngsters in the best possible position for success - often favouring prior relationships, rather than appropriate levels and/or styles for youngsters. Chong was unfortunate enough to have some terrible luck with injuries and some really ineffective loans - whilst I acknowledge the Birmingham loan and subsequent transfer worked out well for him.
So, for those keeping count, the issues of that '18 crop were injuries, opportunities and patience. Those three factors can all be mitigated by stability. Stability in results gives managers time, time for managers allows managers to trust players, trust in players enables development. Fergie would allow players to mature and expect them to make the grade at 22 or 23. This isn't unique to United. Nowadays, managers and fans don't want to wait five years for a 16 year old to mature; instead, teams like City and Chelsea - two of the best academies in England - prefer to sell their youngsters for decent fees and reinforce the first team with established players.
So what for the Class of '22? The Class of '22 managed to be the first United side to win the FA Youth Cup since 2011. That team has already begun to make waves in the senior side, as Garnacho is fully embedded into the first team; whilst Mainoo is hoping to contribute significant minutes this season. The pick of the crop on the outside looking in are Shola Shoretire, Isak Hansen-Aaroen and Dan Gore. Slightly behind this group, there is a lot of buzz around Shea Lacey, amongst others. Even with stability, there is a good chance only one or two end up making it from the class of '22. All United fans can hope for is that EtH is given the time and, consequently, gives those youngsters the time they need to develop. As I was composing this, I saw the news of Charlie leaving. Naturally, there will be times, as is the case with Savage and Iqbal, where you have to trust in the manager's decisions and accept some players won't make the grade
TLDR; the indubitable key to academy graduate success is first team stability.