Middle East Politics

Internet is completely shutdown in Iran (only less than 5% connectivity) for 2 full days now. North Korea style...my messages on Whatsapp to family members not delivering, no new messages on instagram/telegram...even international calls are being blocked.

While he has shut down 80 million Iranians from the world thanks to state-controlled Internet, Khamenei has been freely tweeting the last 2 days (and he even vetoed a parliament resolution to reverse the gas prices).
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50468025

Jewish settlements no longer illegal - US

The US has shifted its position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, no longer viewing them as inconsistent with international law.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the status of the West Bank was for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate.

Settlements are communities established by Israel on land occupied in the 1967 Middle East war.

The decision is a reversal of the Obama administration's position.
 
1] Israel’s long-running policy of settling civilians in occupied territory is considered a war crime under the statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Article 8(2) of the Rome Statute defines “the transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory” as a war crime when committed as part of a plan or policy or as part of a large-scale commission of such crimes.
 
Sultan said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50468025

Jewish settlements no longer illegal - US

The US has shifted its position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, no longer viewing them as inconsistent with international law.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the status of the West Bank was for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate.

Settlements are communities established by Israel on land occupied in the 1967 Middle East war.

The decision is a reversal of the Obama administration's position.
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So leave the legal status of an occupation to be decided between the occupier and occupied, seems rational.

Sounds like Trumps doing everything he can to give his mate Bibi a public boost back home.
 
Kaos said:
So leave the legal status of an occupation to be decided between the occupier and occupied, seems rational.

Sounds like Trumps doing everything he can to give his mate Bibi a public boost back home.
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I think this is it, he's looking for a favour and Trump obliges.
 
The US is a joke. Was watching Pompeo live and felt like breaking my TV.
 
Hanks said:
While by all accounts Mossadegh was a great man and the one who nationalized our oil, I don't think we can say with 100% certainty he'd be a democratic leader, seeing he only was in charge for about a year or so. Also, I don't agree Shah was a puppet. Yes, in 1953, he owed his rule to the coup and he had great relations with the West, but he wasn't a Western puppet for the entirety of his rule (He pointed out Jewish over-representation in US Media and Banks for example, said if you remove Khomeini's turbon, it has a "Made in UK" sign tattooed to his head" etc. Shah did a lot to modernize Iranian society through his White Revolution and actually genuinely loved and cared for Iran, but he made some big strategic mistakes like trying to change too much too fast, not killing off Khomeini early on in 1964 instead of sending him to exile, not addressing inequality adequately and abolition of political parties to except for one.

The fact is, people now dream of the Shah era and see it in a nostalgic way. While Shah wasn't as popular and effective as his father was, but he was still significantly and by millions of miles better than the current mob who don't even call the country "IRAN", but rather "Islamic Republic".
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I agree with you on the Mullahs. They have been a huge disaster not only for Iran but for the region and even the world.
But how do you get rid of them internally and without getting a puppet of the west in place?
Look what is happening in Iraq. Saddam was a brutal dictator but at least in his early days so long as you don't get involved in politics you are free to do much as what you want to do.
Iraq was prosperous and secular. Now if you get foreigners to get rid of the Mullahs the same thing will happen.
 
Foxbatt said:
I agree with you on the Mullahs. They have been a huge disaster not only for Iran but for the region and even the world.
But how do you get rid of them internally and without getting a puppet of the west in place?
Look what is happening in Iraq. Saddam was a brutal dictator but at least in his early days so long as you don't get involved in politics you are free to do much as what you want to do.
Iraq was prosperous and secular. Now if you get foreigners to get rid of the Mullahs the same thing will happen.
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But what difference does it make if a regime is puppet of China/Russia or puppet of the West? And just not being vehemently "ANTI-US" or "DEATH TO AMERICA" doesn't make one puppets. I'm in opinion that Iran should have relations with all the 202 countries in the world as long as it serves our national interests. Similar how Putin in one week goes from Tehran to Riyadh and then Jerusalem and then Ankara.

Fact of the matter is, smaller and weaker countries usually have to align themselves with certain powers to protect themselves against other powers. Right now the Mullahs may claim they are not Western puppets. Not exactly like either China/Russia are "allies" with IR, Russia uses them as a bargaining chip with America, and China uses Iran to dump all their garbage products.

Also, What Western Leftists (who only seem to know abut the 1953 coup in recent Iranian history) forget, is that before the Pahlavi dynasty and under Qajar era, Iran was being ran like a tribe with no focused centralized gov't or bureacracy. Pahlavis made Iran a relatively modern country and brought us to the 20th century. They established the first radio, buit lots of the roads and infrasturcture and opened universities and expanded women rights. Yes, they weren't perfect, they suprressed dissent, but they did a shit lot more than the current lot. I don't personally care if Shah sleeps on the same bed with both Americans and Russians, as long as the net benefit to Iranian citizen and society is positive. I'm not a purist unlike some on this forum, just being realistic. I think we can have a government that looks after our interests be it in relations to the West, with China or with Russia or other super powers. We don't have to be PRO-one or ANTI-one. at least not to extreme measures like now.


Anyways, entering the 4th day of COMPLETE INTERNET shutdown in Iran, except very few clips coming out from people who have sattelite connection with high leve of expertise. Over 200 dead so far, many cities looking like warzones, seen clips of IRGC shooting people from helicopters and on the roofs, and protests still ongoing. Persian Gulf league football games are postponed. Schools are cancelled still. The regime is terrified and they are cracking down harder than ever before. All the strength to my people, I wish I could help them in a more meaningful way than just explaining our history and story to foreign audience on these forums.

And almost ZERO coverage in any foreign media...I wonder why.
 
Hugely significant, mysterious episode in modern Middle Eastern history:



Some footage:

 
Some raw footage from Tehran, courtesy of BBC Farsi:

 
Amazing how little attention the Syrian War receives on here these days. Some horrific videos circulating from Idlib of the aftermath of regime/Russian air-strikes, floods of refugees heading for Turkey. Looks like Ma’arrat al-Nu’man will fall shortly (it’s famous as the place where the knights of the First Crusade turned to cannibalism). During this war the city protested vigorously against both the regime and the jihadis, for a long time it was almost alone in Idlib in successfully resisting Nusra/HTS, etc, and it’s suffered regular bombardment from the air for years now.
 
2cents said:
Amazing how little attention the Syrian War receives on here these days. Some horrific videos circulating from Idlib of the aftermath of regime/Russian air-strikes, floods of refugees heading for Turkey. Looks like Ma’arrat al-Nu’man will fall shortly (it’s famous as the place where the knights of the First Crusade turned to cannibalism). During this war the city protested vigorously against both the regime and the jihadis, for a long time it was almost alone in Idlib in successfully resisting Nusra/HTS, etc, and it’s suffered regular bombardment from the air for years now.
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I think unfortunately there are probably a few reasons. Fatigue with a war that has lasted almost a decade now (seems insane to type this out!), no longer the same fear and horror of ISIS, an acceptance that Assad/Russia/Iran have probably won the conventional war now anyway and bigger fish to fry with Brexit/upcoming US elections etc.

Incredibly sad to see how the revolutions have turned out in every country other than Tunisia and the reactionary forces across the region, especially the Gulf, will be sitting content.

Long term issue is that what was actually for me probably the most important driver in the protests across the region initially (high rates of youth unemployment, poor prospects and a general lack of agency) are still there, bubbling under the surface. They can hire all the mercenaries they want from Sudan, Sisi can lock up as many as they want, the Iraqis can gun people down in the street etc. But eventually you feel people will explode again at some point.

The leaders are just too stupid or ignorant to realise that.
 
africanspur said:
I think unfortunately there are probably a few reasons. Fatigue with a war that has lasted almost a decade now (seems insane to type this out!), no longer the same fear and horror of ISIS, an acceptance that Assad/Russia/Iran have probably won the conventional war now anyway and bigger fish to fry with Brexit/upcoming US elections etc.

Incredibly sad to see how the revolutions have turned out in every country other than Tunisia and the reactionary forces across the region, especially the Gulf, will be sitting content.

Long term issue is that what was actually for me probably the most important driver in the protests across the region initially (high rates of youth unemployment, poor prospects and a general lack of agency) are still there, bubbling under the surface. They can hire all the mercenaries they want from Sudan, Sisi can lock up as many as they want, the Iraqis can gun people down in the street etc. But eventually you feel people will explode again at some point.

The leaders are just too stupid or ignorant to realise that.
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Yeah there’s no real going back to the pre-2011 days. Some will lament that as the instability/chaos will likely continue for decades, but a clean, straightforward path out of tyranny doesn’t exist (in large part due to the tyrants’ design IMO).
 
Although Oman is rarely in the news, this could be quite significant:



 
This seems like a fair initial assessment:

 
The late Sultan Qaboos of Oman was an enigma to me. Two examples below:

1) A coup d'état is usually a bad sign. But the late Sultan seemed to defy the odds. He abolished slavery, generated revenue through oil, modernised the country and turned Oman, in particular Muscat, into an attractive tourist destination.

2) Oman has also remained an oasis of calm despite the war in neighbouring Yemen and Iran on the peninsula. Even Netanyahu visited in 2018.

Admittedly I know even less about the late Sultan's chosen successor. But, if my knowledge of Sultan Qaboos is true, al-Said has big shoes to fill.
 
Chairman Woodie said:
coup d'état is usually a bad sign. But the late Sultan seemed to defy the odds.
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Some words here on the man he ousted:

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2cents said:
Amazing how little attention the Syrian War receives on here these days. Some horrific videos circulating from Idlib of the aftermath of regime/Russian air-strikes, floods of refugees heading for Turkey. Looks like Ma’arrat al-Nu’man will fall shortly (it’s famous as the place where the knights of the First Crusade turned to cannibalism). During this war the city protested vigorously against both the regime and the jihadis, for a long time it was almost alone in Idlib in successfully resisting Nusra/HTS, etc, and it’s suffered regular bombardment from the air for years now.
Click to expand...

Reports that Ma’arrat al-Nu’man finally fell today, now under Syrian government control.
 
Turkish and Syrian militaries now clashing directly in Idlib:

 
Chairman Woodie said:
The late Sultan Qaboos of Oman was an enigma to me. Two examples below:

1) A coup d'état is usually a bad sign. But the late Sultan seemed to defy the odds. He abolished slavery, generated revenue through oil, modernised the country and turned Oman, in particular Muscat, into an attractive tourist destination.

2) Oman has also remained an oasis of calm despite the war in neighbouring Yemen and Iran on the peninsula. Even Netanyahu visited in 2018.

Admittedly I know even less about the late Sultan's chosen successor. But, if my knowledge of Sultan Qaboos is true, al-Said has big shoes to fill.
Click to expand...

I have lived in Oman for the past 5 years and have to say that from all I have seen and been witness to, Sultan Qaboos was a great leader for Oman and for the region. He was and always will be adored by the Omani public for pulling them into the modern day since ousting his father. To think when he came to power there was no electricity, education was illegal and there was only 6 miles of road in all of Oman to what it has become today is really quite incredible.

I think he will be remembered also for his work to try and bring peace to what is a volatile region. He played a key role in the deescalation of tensions between USA and Iran. Oman has also welcomed Israel to try an find peace between Israel and the rest of the ME countries. Oman did not choose sides in many of the conflicts locally, they seek peace and discussion to solve issues, and this is a belief ingrained on the people of Oman too. From my own personal experiences, whenever some form of conflict breaks out, the Omani's I speak with always denounce such actions and encourage talks not military action.

I do not know too much about his successor Sultan Haitham, however he was chosen by Qaboos, and selected due to his vision of continuing on Qaboos' legacy. He has been a confidant and close adviser to Qaboos in his latter years, and I am sure he will carry on leading the country in the same style.

For anyone thinking of ever visiting I cannot recommend it highly enough. A great place, incredible scenery and peaceful and welcoming people.
 
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Relfy said:
I have lived in Oman for the past 5 years and have to say that from all I have seen and been witness to, Sultan Qaboos was a great leader for Oman and for the region. He was and always will be adored by the Omani public for pulling them into the modern day since ousting his father. To think when he came to power there was no electricity, education was illegal and there was only 6 miles of road in all of Oman to what it has become today is really quite incredible.

I think he will be remembered also for his work to try and bring peace to what is a volatile region. He played a key role in the deescalation of tensions between USA and Iran. Oman has also welcomed Israel to try an find peace between Israel and the rest of the ME countries. Oman did not choose sides in many of the conflicts locally, they seek peace and discussion to solve issues, and this is a belief ingrained on the people of Oman too. From my own personal experiences, whenever some form of conflict breaks out, the Omani's I speak with always denounce such actions and encourage talks not military action.

I do not know too much about his successor Sultan Haitham, however he was chosen by Qaboos, and selected due to his vision of continuing on Qaboos' legacy. He has been a confidant and close adviser to Qaboos in his latter years, and I am sure he will carry on leading the country in the same style.

For anyone thinking of ever visiting I cannot recommend it highly enough. A great place, incredible scenery and peaceful and welcoming people.
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Oman is very high on my list of places I want to visit eventually.
 
Relfy said:
I have lived in Oman for the past 5 years and have to say that from all I have seen and been witness to, Sultan Qaboos was a great leader for Oman and for the region. He was and always will be adored by the Omani public for pulling them into the modern day since ousting his father. To think when he came to power there was no electricity, education was illegal and there was only 6 miles of road in all of Oman to what it has become today is really quite incredible.

I think he will be remembered also for his work to try and bring peace to what is a volatile region. He played a key role in the deescalation of tensions between USA and Iran. Oman has also welcomed Israel to try an find peace between Israel and the rest of the ME countries. Oman did not choose sides in many of the conflicts locally, they seek peace and discussion to solve issues, and this is a belief ingrained on the people of Oman too. From my own personal experiences, whenever some form of conflict breaks out, the Omani's I speak with always denounce such actions and encourage talks not military action.

I do not know too much about his successor Sultan Haitham, however he was chosen by Qaboos, and selected due to his vision of continuing on Qaboos' legacy. He has been a confidant and close adviser to Qaboos in his latter years, and I am sure he will carry on leading the country in the same style.

For anyone thinking of ever visiting I cannot recommend it highly enough. A great place, incredible scenery and peaceful and welcoming people.
Click to expand...

Thanks for insightful post. Most interesting.
 


Presumably the motivation for Sudan is to relieve the sanctions and reconnect with the world. Cutting ties with Iran and normalising relations with Israel would send a positive message to the United States.
 
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