Metrics of Change - the Amorim Edition

Pogue Mahone

Clarkson
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
141,324
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Tried starting a similar thread when ETH took over. Here's hoping I don't curse the new guy too!

Just curious to see statistical evidence of the influence of a new guy in charge.

Very small sample size right now but will obviously get bigger over time.

First and most obvious one: Possession
League Games
Last night United had 48% possession. In the same fixture last season they had 27%
Against Forest we had 72%. Last season we had 66%
Against Arsenal we had 49%. Last season we had 45%
Against Everton we had 60%. Last season we had 51%
Against Ipswich we had 60%. Didn't play them last season.
Europe
This season average of 60% (two games) Last season average of 46% (better opposition)

I'd say that's enough data to see a trend.

Any other indicators anyone has noticed?
 
Hair on the manager's head:
This season, a lot. Last season, none.
 
statistically, the ipswich game had the biggest swing.
 
As you said, small sample size but if Amorim does indeed prioritise being comfortable in possession then I'll allow myself a tiny sliver of optimism. I'm sick of us treating the ball as a hot potato.
 
Good thread. I see attempts on goal too gradually increasing.
 
I think we just look like a much tougher team overall - I think we'll be dead annoying to play against especially for the top teams in the league. We have an issue at the moment with set pieces but that's fixable within a couple of solid months of training.

Anfield will be a good test - we've capitulated there, year after year.
 
We're scoring more goals. And I'd guess we're conceding fewer chances. So xG is probably up for us and down for our opponents.
 
We've definitely become better at keeping the ball in Amorim's first few games. We're still struggling to create much with it but it's a start, the hot potato football is slowly dying out.
 
CM said:
We've definitely become better at keeping the ball in Amorim's first few games. We're still struggling to create much with it but it's a start, the hot potato football is slowly dying out.
Click to expand...
This. I’m sure sprints/pressures per 90 would also increase, especially with Ugarte/Amad getting more minutes this season. Amorim also expects everyone to sprint back when the ball is lost.

Not sure about distance covered as you’d expect that metric to be influenced by higher possession stats (ie possibly an inverse relationship there of sorts?).
 
Think we'll be so much better when we have wing backs that suit his system.
 
Even apart from the playing methods and statistics, the position in the league table isn't as bad as some people seem to think. There are 6 teams within 2 points above, and they sometimes have to play each other.

I don't want to word this wrong and sound like if only, but had the improvement already been enough to beat Arsenal and Forest, United would already be up to 3rd place. Going up the Europa table as well. There is plenty of scope for this season to still turn into something.
 
Gavinb33 said:
In the games I've watched I thought we have had more control which plays out in the stats, we've gone from conceding 20+ shots a game to not doing that which will help us in the long run
Click to expand...

So. Shots conceded.

League games only (ignoring Ipswich, as no equivalent)
This season, under Amorim, we've conceded 33 shots at goal, 11 on target
Lat season, in same fixtures, we conceded 50 shots at our goal, 15 on target.

I reckon the open play stats would look a lot better. Arsenal's poxy corners really messed us up, statistically.
 
I also noticed much more fight in our players yesterday especially compared to over the past few seasons where they’ve noticeably always just been weak, physically and mentally. We always barely challenged for loose balls, were ALWAYS easily outmuscled and whenever we went down a goal you’d never imagine us coming back. Not sure if it shows up statistically but it’s something I definitely noticed yesterday especially a period in the second half. Might have helped not having Rashford in the team but that’s another welcome improvement if it continues.
 
Not sure how much worth there is comparing Possession Stats from games in completely different seasons

But Id expect Average possession for games under Ten Hag Vs Amorim to show a similar trend anyway
 
Last edited:
Pogue Mahone said:
To be honest I was hoping some of you lazy turds would wade in with your own research!
Click to expand...
Arsenal (a) this season - 2
Arsenal (a) last season - 1

Forest (a) this season - 1
Forest (a) last season - 0

Not looking good from this exhaustive sample size
 
What I liked so far:-

Defensive stability and solidity: when the wide CBs tuck in and the WBs drop back and the CMs sit in front if the CBs, it creates solid wall of 7 players defensive structure with the AMs and the ST ahead.

Control of the ball: though a lot of it at times is the ball being recycled between the back line and the GK, there is better control by having 3 CBs passing the ball sidaways to move the oppo players side to side, as it makes it a lot harder for the oppo to press aggressively and risk coming out, it should improve of course but the control element is there.

Emerging patterns in attack: There is still some work that needs to be done attacking wise, but I see some patterns emerging, the first goal vs Forest was a beauty, Bruno dropping deep and pulling a defender on to him that created the space for Ugarte to exploit and slot Garna in a 1v1, Hojlund ends up scoring it but it was a beauty, the winning goal against Bodo, the winning goal against Plzen, both feel like patterns rather than individual brilliance, which we still need like yesterday's game vs City, but I like the patterns and diversification of the attacks rather than being dependant on someone being brilliant on the da, still early days but promising.

What I don't like is the set peices defending, we should do a lot better there and hopefully it gets better.

I'll be honest, I actually hate 3 at the back formations, really hate and and I hate teams that we come up against that play that way, even though I watch Inter's games, not as regularly as United, but even when I watch Inter play and dominate and all I still disliked it, now when I watch us play it, it feels different don't know why.
 
Would be great to get one of those average positions + pass maps for Amorim - percentage % alone doesn't tell us a huge amount.
 
Not sure if there are any stats to demonstrate this, but we look less predictable in the final third and more willing to try different moves.

It may not yet have consistently translated into more chances being created and more goals being scored, but it's still a positive sign.
 
Whoever tells you there is no immediate change show them this.

Whoever tell you they can't see what happening show them this.



Made Pep to have his worst opposition box touches in PL this season.














ETH made Brentford have 73 touches in our box

 
By the way,

At the end of that Brentford game, they had 85 touches in our box

 
Won the all-important xG battle in every game bar the first against Ipswich and then obviously Arsenal, who were the only team to outshoot us. So we're not just having more possession, but seemingly more intent at the same time which is nice and backs the eye test.

Would you believe it, that has also seen us score more goals! After seven matches we're averaging 2 a game under Amorim as opposed to the ~1.14 you'd get taking an average of Ten Hag's last 7 games, or even the ~1.54 you get from all his competitive games (including Barnsley) this season.

Maths done quick and dirty, so feel free to correct if necessary, but it's looking like good early signs so far. It hasn't really felt like we've had much of a new manager bounce until maybe yesterday's positive result, but the green shoots are there.
 
Licha-Vidic said:
By the way,
Click to expand...
Licha-Vidic said:
Whoever tells you there is no immediate change show them this.

Whoever tell you they can't see what happening show them this.



Made Pep to have his worst opposition box touches in PL this season.

Click to expand...


Yeah, that's a good one. I saw it on MOTD last night. It's a great counter to the idea we only beat City because they're in a shocking run of form. It's the way we beat them that was most encouraging. None of the other teams that beat them during that run managed to shut them down as completely as we did, or even nearly as completely as we did.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, that's a good one. I saw it on MOTD last night. It's a great counter to the idea we only beat City because they're in a shocking run of form. It's the way we beat them that was most encouraging. None of the other teams that beat them during that run managed to shut them down as completely as we did, or even nearly as completely as we did.
Click to expand...
Arsenal created feck all from open play against us as well. If we can be slightly more adventurous with the ball than we were at the Emirates (definitely took steps in that direction in the second half last night) and learn how to defend a corner, we'll be able to give anybody a game.
 
Yeah it's evident that he values possession a bit more, which personally i'm very happy about , though I think it might annoy others who want United to be more direct. I wonder when the last time was when we had such a high possession stat against City?
 
Irwin99 said:
Yeah it's evident that he values possession a bit more, which personally i'm very happy about , though I think it might annoy others who want United to be more direct. I wonder when the last time was when we had such a high possession stat against City?
Click to expand...

Now that is a great question. I'm willing to bet that against Pep's version of City the answer is "never".
 
Pogue Mahone said:
So. Shots conceded.

League games only (ignoring Ipswich, as no equivalent)
This season, under Amorim, we've conceded 33 shots at goal, 11 on target
Lat season, in same fixtures, we conceded 50 shots at our goal, 15 on target.

I reckon the open play stats would look a lot better. Arsenal's poxy corners really messed us up, statistically.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure open play xGa is very down under Amorim so far. Not sure where to find the actual data so this is going off of memory
 
Overall it seems pretty clear he's made us tougher to create against in open play while keeping us more organized in and out of possession so we aren't getting caught into those end to end hellscape "basketball" style games that Ten Hag seemed so fond of last season. It's also preserving our legs more, we aren't dead tired by the 65th or 70th minute now as a side and seem to have more juice to close games, managing out energy better.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, that's a good one. I saw it on MOTD last night. It's a great counter to the idea we only beat City because they're in a shocking run of form. It's the way we beat them that was most encouraging. None of the other teams that beat them during that run managed to shut them down as completely as we did, or even nearly as completely as we did.
Click to expand...
Also we did it at the Etihad. 7 of their 10 games were away, the other 3 were a dominant win over Forest, the Feyenoord game where they had a comfortable lead and just bottled it to he last few minutes, and then the spurs shit show which was still basically a 2-2 xG game where Spurs were just very clinical and City missed chances. We just closed them down and controlled the game in a way that others haven't done against City on their turf. Liverpool TBF dominated them but it was at Anfield.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Now that is a great question. I'm willing to bet that against Pep's version of City the answer is "never".
Click to expand...
There was a 0-0 in one of Ole's games where Pep was very carefully trying to avoid leaving space to be countered and the game just became a real borefest with both teams waiting for the other to make a mistake, so maybe that one.

I just checked it out- that one was 54% possession to City. That felt a different game to yesterday as Pep was very defensive and we were pretty clueless on how to break them down.
 
Run around for 90mins chasing the ball vs City

Pre Amorim - Yes
With Amorim - No
 
Valencia Shin Crosses said:
I'm pretty sure open play xGa is very down under Amorim so far. Not sure where to find the actual data so this is going off of memory
Click to expand...
Flipping through fotmob individual games works, Ipswich is the only exception to it (basically no training time so understandable), but Plzen created the most open play xG against us with just 0.78 since that Ipswich game. Basically our system has been excellent defensively at shutting down opponents, restrict shots and restricting touches in our box.

That's why it was doing my head in seeing people bitching that it was the same old shite because of a couple of unlucky results or moments. We were conceding 20 shots per game last season FFS, regularly conceding over 2xG+, and just looked like amateurs the way we were coached. That's why I was such an annoying dick about ten hag last season too. The tactical set up was a disaster and led to that shit show. Amorim addressed that in a week.

It's of course a process to actually be a good all around side, but he's very clearly made instant impacts across the board with his coaching that is clearly represented in the metrics, and he's done it transitioning us to a controlled/possession style of play. We're getting above 60%, even 70% possession in games against easier opponents and the big games have been 50/50. The guy has been in charge for a month and is doing that. They are clear and excellent signs going forward and it's brilliant that he got the result yesterday to underline the progress.
 
Irwin99 said:
Yeah it's evident that he values possession a bit more, which personally i'm very happy about , though I think it might annoy others who want United to be more direct. I wonder when the last time was when we had such a high possession stat against City?
Click to expand...

I think it'll only annoy people if in 6 months it comes with no end product. Which would be fair enough. It is supposed to be entertainment.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.