Lukaku - transfer speculation | Gone

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Tom Cato said:
Manchester United is NOT dealing in billions. What currency do you refer to here? We are not dealing in billions in Pound, Euro or Dollar. Nowhere near that number, period. The club is valued at $3.8 billion USD, but the clubs operating budget never sees anything resembling a 9 decimal number.

The clubs revenue for the 2018/2019 season will finally eclipse £600 million. In the 2017/2018 fiscal year the clubs total turnover came in at £590 million. Our wage bill sits at around 50%(!!) of our total turnover at £296 MILLION pounds.

The club posted a net profit last year of £26 million pounds.

The club pays out £22 million or so yearly in shareholder dividends that is split among the clubs eligible shareholders, of course the majority of this goes to team Glazer. Man United is a tradeable company, the entire reason they exist in this form is to turn a shareholder profit and grow in value for a future sale.

5-10 million extra euro for a player sale is net profit.

What you just wrote, is that a number thats between £4.4 million and £8.9 million (rounded up) of a player sale, accounting for between 11%~ and 23.1%~ of the clubs total surplus is no big deal.

Everyone have gotten so numb to the numbers being thrown around that most people forget that sales are profit, and they make up a substantial percentage of the clubs profitable or re-investable revenue.

So while I get that it doesnt sound much, the numbers are in truth astronomical and Ed Woodward would not be worth his salary if he let Lukaku go for anything under acceptable market valuation.
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Well said.
 
Lash said:
Yeah but you're asking them to double their output, I'm not sure if that can be relied upon. You may be right that we'd only really need to improve the defensive side to jump those two - De Gea signing and getting form back, AWB and potentially Maguire may just do that, I just don't want to be a situation again where we're relying on not conceding to win games.
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No one is asking for double the output... Merely a slight improvement on their current minutes per goal output when played in their preferred positions.

Rashford should never play anywhere but CF, where I believe his stats are nearly a goal every 2 games. Martial should only play LW where last season again his numbers were a goal every 2 games.

If they both played 50 games a season in these positions they'd be hitting 18 - 24 goals based on last years outputs.
 
Eric's Seagull said:
When do you think they will get sold?I think we pay such high wages we will find it hard to offload players as other clubs wont be stupid to pay we do. I think Darmian we leave on a free next year. Rojo's extension was a joke and I think we are stuck with him for next 2 years.
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Nothing forces us to register them if we don't sell them :)
If they don't want to be sold, just let them sit in reserves & not registered. Time to be ruthless
 
BluesJr said:
Can we just sell him? What does receiving an extra 5-10m really matter? This club is so frustrating.
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What's the hurry in selling him, as we hardly will replace him with a striker or a winger. The money will be used to sell a striker and Replace him with a CB which we should be investing in anyway.
 
Patrick08 said:
What's the hurry in selling him, as we hardly will replace him with a striker or a winger. The money will be used to sell a striker and Replace him with a CB which we should be investing in anyway.
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Latest rumour is we’ll go balls out to bring Dembele in which is a bit meh.
 
7even said:
Great post as usual Tom but when making assumptions about profit/losses we need to take into account several other factors and estimate the value of success.

As far as we know atm Lukaku isn’t included in our preferred starting line up and his style isn’t optimal in Ole’s new set up with intensive press up front and lots of movements. With that in mind I think it’s fair to guess that his goal production will decrease this upcoming season. Having such a expensive asset on the bench, also a top earner, is bad business both short and long term. So instead of only using financial metrics we should also include his contribution to our results and the expected decrease to his value to receive a better picture of his worth.

From my perspective it’s wiser to take the initial loss of €5-10m when we sell Lukaku, reinvest the money in a player who better suite our needs and as a consequence have a better chance to improve our results.

Example 1. Worst case scenario. Keeping a bench warmer who only score 10 goals over a season.

Lukaku value summer 2019 = €70m + bonuses.
Lukaku value summer 2020 = €50m + bonuses (estimated value)
Because of keeping him we can’t buy Maguire and we end up with similar results as season 2018/19. As a consequence we lose £20m/year from Adidas, we don’t qualify to CL (another loss of £££) and we are less attractive to new talents.

Example 2. Best case scenario . Receive €70+(10m/2020) after selling Lukaku.

Buying Maguire €75+15m (estimated value 2020 approximately £60m+ bonuses)
Improve our results 2019/20 and end up in top four.
Keep Adidas deal +£20m
Getting CL money
Our new asset (Maguire) has similar decrease to his value as Lukaku. (Maybe even less)
Better results also gives us a more positive atmosphere. Easier to keep and attract sponsors. Easier to attract new talents. A better chance to improve the quality of our squad.

Nothing is certain in life but for me case two makes more sense.
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This is a good reply to my original post, and you emphasize something that I left out to keep it shorter, but you are absolutely right that there are metrics that should all be accounted for other than value today. Not selling Lukaku does decrease his value in the next winow with a great idea of likelyhood given his shortcomings in Oles pacy game setup, (Shorter term, age, lack of contribution)

Plus other variables that are important you mention like our sponorshipdeal with a CL qualifying spot.

A lot of people on these forums have real animocity towards Ed Woodward, but I don't believe that he is entirely in charge of who gets bought or not. Joel and Avram Glazer are both Executive Co-Chairman of the Manchester United board, and absolutely has the final say in big money transfers, the Glazer family are all Directors in Manchester United football club, whereas Ed Woodward is Vice-Executive Chairman. The reports that Joel Glazer blocked the sale of Anthony Martial I do believe, it fits perfectly with their hand in the club. Ed Woodward might not be permitted by the Glazers to go over a fixed amount for a player without Glazer approval for all we know.

I know that I come across as "This is so and so" most of the time, but right now with the transfer window closing in so fast, I just want things to get done and new shiny faces in the door so we can start the season with a Chelsea pummeling.
 
Yeah I guess we will not bother to replace him this summer at least and hope that Rashford/Martial come good, kind of wish we still had Hernandez around who you could rely on to grab a crucial goal now and again, a million miles away from having a player in the class of a Van Nistelrooy or RVP mind.
 
Difficult not to feel sorry for them.

Happy to quote an insane fee for Perisic and not move an inch on it, then do their best to force us to accept a low bid for Lukaku with him not being "fit" to take part in our pre-season as a result.
 
Zoo said:
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Karma bite his ass. Asked for 50mil for fecking Perisic. And now complaining about us asking so much for Lukaku who is miles better and younger than Perisic. Top it all Perisic has turned to shit too.
 
This is basically why i was skeptical the other day when Lukaku posted that image of him and is agent. Everyone took that as proof that he's gone, but i just don't see how Inter can stump up the money we've been asking. They've made it abundantly clear that they don't have the funds and United have made it clear that they're not willing to budge on the price.

Unless they sell a few players in the next week or so (unlikely) i'm not sure how this will go through. Unless they magically find the funds. Hope i'm wrong as i want him out the club.
 
I made an offer to a guy earlier to buy his car and he wouldn't accept my bid just because I didn't meet his asking price. This is so strange.
 
Lukaku and Darmian for Dybala would be about perfect under these circumstances, I would have thought. Besides, Dybala will likely agree for the combined salary of the above duo, so we don't increase the wage bill either.
 
Alemar said:
Lukaku and Darmian for Dybala would be about perfect under these circumstances, I would have thought. Besides, Dybala will likely agree for the combined salary of the above duo, so we don't increase the wage bill either.
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The problem is Dybala may not want to join us and as much as I would be ecstatic signing someone like Dybala, I do not want another player who does not want to be here aka Di Maria.
 
AshRK said:
The problem is Dybala may not want to join us and as much as I would be ecstatic signing someone like Dybala, I do not want another player who does not want to be here aka Di Maria.
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Fair enough, but it's up to him to decide. One thing is certain - he can't achieve any sort of global recognition playing with Ronaldo (all and every success of the club will be associated with Ronaldo - just as it is in Barcelona with Messi).
 
it is a part ob the bargaining game. Who will blink first Woodward or Marotta. :) Are we that desperate to sell or are Inter more desperate to buy. We will agree eventually and cut our losses me thinks.
 
Lukaku is on a way to some really big shite from the looks of it. If he doesn't move, then even on merit he won't be making the bench (clearly a fit Greenwood is a better option than unfit Lukaku) - let alone the fact that OGS or Woodward might then decide to punish Lukaku for not moving
 
Alemar said:
Fair enough, but it's up to him to decide. One thing is certain - he can't achieve any sort of global recognition playing with Ronaldo (all and every success of the club will be associated with Ronaldo - just as it is in Barcelona with Messi).
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You are right. Which is why if he really wants to challenge himself and wants to come here and be the man to take this club forward , I would be all over this deal but if he just wants to get away from Juve and needs a place to earn money before he can join some other club, I won't buy him.
 
Shakesey said:
Perisic had a fantastic world cup and Inter asked for 50mil. I don't find that unreasonable at all.
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We were in for him the summer before the World Cup.
 
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