Brwned
Have you ever been in love before?
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2008
- Messages
- 50,937
Every single statistic is flawed when used in isolation. Nonetheless, "goal:match ratio" is a superior indicator of a striker's goalscoring ability compared with "total goals scored." This is similar to the “batting average” popular in cricket. What surprises me so much is that while batting averages are the most frequently used metric to judge a batsman’s abilities (instead of total career runs), goal:match ratio is rarely mentioned within footballing circles. The beauty of the statistic is in its simplicity and doesn’t require any complex machine-derived computation.
"Total goals scored" is a measure of a striker’s “longevity”, or the frequency of the team’s participation in a certain competition. For instance, Real Madrid's omnipresence in the Champions League heavily skews that statistic in favour of their players.
An example I frequently give is that of Raúl’s. Raúl is considered by many to be one of the greatest strikers of the modern generation (more so by people obsessed with statistics)! He would even be in the top-five modern strikers of many people's lists. The general argument is that he scored a whopping 400+ career goals and several major trophies. I followed his career closely in the '90s and the 2000s and know for a fact that he was an extremely average left-footed striker. I think he couldn't score >25 League goals his entire career. Some people may not like it, but he's not even half the striker Karim Benzema is. And Benzema himself barely manages to scrape into the list of elite strikers.
The "total goals scored" metric is extremely misleading, but if you calculate the ratio, things become clearer:
Raúl: ~0.4, Benzema: ~0.55.
If people don't like the ratio in decimals, the fraction can be expressed in percentages and read as 40, 55, etc. And do this for elite goal scorers and the statistic really shines through: Messi : ~78, Ronaldo: 73, Lewandowski: 68, Mbappe: 63, Haaland: 73.
Alternatively, (goals+assists):match ratio could be used to determine an attacking players goal contributions per match.
ffs the condescension mixed in with the analysis is incredible.
Sir Alex watched him pretty closely too. There were was a point when he thought he was the best player in the world, and while that wasn't a universal opinion, it certainly wasn't a ridiculous one. Calling him average is without a doubt ridiculous.
'Raul is so difficult to play against when he starts taking up the positions he did tonight,’ said Ferguson.
‘He always seems to be an outlet for them and we never contained that part.
‘We know Zinedine Zidane and Luis Figo are great players but we could have handled that. Raul was very difficult.
‘My only hope is that he doesn’t like travelling. Failing that, we will stop him coming into the country for the second leg.
‘Real Madrid have bought some great players over the last few years but, at the moment, Raul is the best in the world.’