I'm not sure Leicester has ever had a player called Varane.
Jarrad Branthwaite
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sorry! Not sure how I made that mix up. Was thinking of someone else in here.
All Good. Trust me when I say that Leicester have made lots of transfer mistakes !!!
I would also like to see us sign 2 CBs, signing a domestic CB for circa £80mil won’t see that happen. Branthwaite is far & away the most expensive a CB we wiuld be after this Summer.
There’s a large gap between the reported price & ’unknown teenagers for peanuts’.
Wait he's better in the air than Maguire?! I've not followed him so I'd assume there's some fbref stats to back this up but does this also follows the eye test?
Maguire is a monster in the air, so I find that hard to believe.
Most central defenders who are worth looking at will go for 60m+
Not sure which players you think we could get for so much less than what Branthwaite would cost
Off the top of my head, Diomande, Silva, Branthwaite, Tapsoba, Yoro, Todibo, Kossounou, Inácio, Lukeba, Bastoni, Bremer, Scalvini, Hato
Any one of them would be expensive
One player we should seriously consider is Adarabioyo on a free, and like most people, I also love deals like Anselmino, but that wouldn't be done with next season in mind
Branthwaite has the potential to be one of the best in the air - he is 6'5 which is taller than Maguire, he is faster, he has a better leap and he scores more goals than Maguire. Just to point out his potential - when Calvert-Lewin was asked a few years ago which player would win a 100 meter race at Everton - he answerred himself or Branthwaite. Of all centre-backs in Europe this season, he has one of the highest success-rates in tackling at about 84% In headers, Tarkowski has won the most aerial duels in the P.L this season - Branthwaite is number 7, and won over 70% of all aerial duels
I get the feeling that Branthwaite has the potential to be a new Pallister. He might end up being too expensive, but I am convinced he will be one of the best central defenders in the Premier League
‘So much less’, ‘teenagers for peanuts’, are you actually responding to what I’m writing or asking yourself rhetorical questions?
What I’m saying is Branthwaite will be at the top end of whatever scale you look at so shopping their whilst on a budget doesn’t look like good business.
I’m not one for banding around transfer fees cause life isn’t Football Manager but I’ll happily wager a bet for charity that at least one of the players you listed goes for less than the £60mil you’ve pulled out of thin air.
There’s a gap between ‘being expensive’ & paying a possible record fee for Branthwaite. If he’s coming in at a similar price to all of the above then of course we should buy him but you’d have seen me say that in my earlier posts had you read them.
"Branthwaite is far & away the most expensive a CB we wiuld be after this Summer."
This is what I replied to, because it's not true.
I think this guy will be our marquee summer signing at about 60mill + add ons
id be happy with him and then its down to Ashworth and the scouts to bring in a few unknown gems, we clearly need a centre forward and 2 midfielders.
Forget Joao Neves he is nailed on for City. Maybe Joao Gomes from Wolves rumours has some truth, but midfield acquisition is key, especially if Casemiro and Eriksen leave.
id be happy with him and then its down to Ashworth and the scouts to bring in a few unknown gems, we clearly need a centre forward and 2 midfielders.
Forget Joao Neves he is nailed on for City. Maybe Joao Gomes from Wolves rumours has some truth, but midfield acquisition is key, especially if Casemiro and Eriksen leave.
Took me a while to learn the spelling of Braithwaite. Now dis.
On a limited budget the difference between your £60mil [as I said numerous of who you listed will go for less] & the reported £80mil for Branthwaite is ‘far & away’ more money. You know 25% more.
If you could get 2 of the listed for £40-50mil [figures out of thin air like you pull] versus 1 for £80mil I’m saying we’d be more prudent to go for the former.
We’re speculating over figures we don’t actually know but what we do know is SjR has stated a few times how he intends to change the way we buy. An £80mil CB isn’t happening.
This limited budget talk is repeated on here on a daily basis, but we will very likely have a lot of money to spend.
Transfer fees are also usually amortised over five years, so it's not like 60 or 80 will make a big difference IMO. However, we'll likely have set budgets before we head into each transfer window under Ineos, so that'll probably lead to us being smarter in the market.
If the parts our new structure (so scouting department, recruitment, manager, etc.) agree on a certain centre back (be that Branthwaite, or someone else) being worth the 80 million, then it will probably happen. (I don't think Branthwaite is worth that at this point)
I’m not sure what you’re on about to be honest. I’m saying £80mil is a lot of money for an unproven CB & if we can get another at a lesser fee like your £60mil, yes 25% cheaper we should perhaps look at those players closer.
As for having a lot of money to spend, I’ve already seen/heard the same but thanks, I suppose. Resources however large are finite though & we’ve been down the £80mil player route a few times already.
It feels like we’re not having the same discussion here. You’re not particularly saying things I disagree with.
£60M is a fair price but I can't see Everton sell him for <£75M unless Everton get relegated.
Depends - Everton could get to a situation where selling Branthwaite is the difference between points deduction next season - or not. And I doubt many clubs are willing to pay £80 million for him
Have any of these estimates ever been correct? I swear everyone puts these out every year and they're always off.
Re Braithwaite, the question Ineos hopefully are asking is, is he someone we could not develop ourselves in a short time frame because that fee could bring in 3-4 lesser known young players instead? I'm not sure the answer to that is 'no'. There are very few footballers you can't develop now and we aren't a club like, for example, Arsenal were last year or Pool were in 18/19 were you are on the cusp and have no option but to pay up for a Rice or VVD.
Our best players are mostly kids, Martinez if/when he returns to fitness should probably be captain, we have a nice young core in my opinion: Mainoo, Hojlund, Garnacho, Dalot, Martinez so do you a) go out and start splashing cash on these types of player who could be good but likely aren't going to transform the team immediately, or do you find someone for £20-30m in Ligue 1 or similar like Arsenal did with Saliba and Gabriel, and then address other areas of the squad?
@Messier1994 can you explain our PSR/FFP situation please mate ?
I agree that 80 million is a lot for an unproven CB. Even though I don't think Branthwaite is "unproven", I'd look at alternatives if Everton want 80 for him, and won't budge.
My point was that we need at least 1, ideally 2 new centre backs, who are ready to contribute from day one. It will be difficult to find someone like that under 60m, in my opinion. Todibo could probably be bought under that number. Getting good value for your money is crucial. However, I don't think Branthwaite for 60-65m is bad value.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I feel like people suddenly expect us to only go for 20-30m (or lower) signings in the hopes of turning them into significantly better players. I don't think that's going to be the case. I think we'll still do big money deals from time to time, like Pogba, Maguire, Antony, but we'll try to spend it smarter, and when we pull the trigger on a close to 9 figure deal (or even exceed that number), we'll want to be 100% sure that it will be worth it.
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I guess we'll see what Ineos want but I suspect there is amazing value in the market simply because most other clubs find it, we've just been poor at it. I think everyone is aware the football is becoming less about the individual stars and more about the collective and it's easy to think 'you could never buy someone as good as x,y or z but often you can. We should be going for guys in their early twenties max and targeting clubs in the big leagues which have been suffering financially.
There are a plethora of players available across world football, as a random example, recently there have been some really good Brasilian signings; Pacqueta for WHUM, Cunha for Wolves who I think we should go for, Muniz was like £6m for Fulham and I think is going to be really good, Sheffield United picked up 2 x DMs for about £25m, will be interesting to see how Hamer and Souza do. Lodi looked decent although he's now gone Saudi I think, Roque signed for Barca...then Paulinha signs for Fulham for about £20m whilst we sign Case for nearly quadruple that and whilst I love him as a player he is clearly in decline. It's crazy how short sighted we used to be.
All the examples you listed are great, and I want us to start doing these type of deals again, but you only listed successful signings. Not all of them are going to be that.
Still some unknowns in there? Too early to know for Muniz, Hamer, Souza for example. Point being, you can sign 1 Branthwaite or 2-3 of these lesser known players if the £80m price tag is to be believed and then, even if 1 is awful, you hopefully have 2 good young names with a lot of potential to develop.
Cheers, he seems to have a very good statistical and athletic profile. However, I was interested in specifically the aerial one because in my simple mind with the eye test 'Maguire = aerial beast mmkay'. I'm assuming you didn't actually mean to say he was better than Maguire aerially but overall right?
Looking at the 23-24 fbref stats total -- ignore every column but the last 3:
| Aerial Duels | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Span | Nation | Pos | Squad | 90s | CrdY | CrdR | 2CrdY | Fls | Fld | Off | Crs | Int | TklW | PKwon | PKcon | OG | Recov | Won | Lost | Won% |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | 2023-24 | eng ENG | DF | Everton | 25.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 64 | 34 | 65.3 |
| Harry Maguire | 2023-24 | eng ENG | DF | Manchester Utd | 12.9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 48 | 16 | 75.0 |
Per 90:
| Performance | Aerial Duels | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Span | Nation | Pos | Squad | 90s | CrdY | CrdR | 2CrdY | Fls | Fld | Off | Crs | Int | TklW | PKwon | PKcon | OG | Recov | Won | Lost | Won% |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | 2023-24 | eng ENG | DF | Everton | 25.0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.56 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1.64 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 5.76 | 2.56 | 1.36 | 65.3 |
| Harry Maguire | 2023-24 | eng ENG | DF | Manchester Utd | 12.9 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 1.47 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.11 | 3.72 | 1.24 | 75.0 |
It's basically similar over their entire careers too. So percentage wise and per 90, Maguire is 10% better. I'm assuming you watch him a lot and think he can improve in the air to become even more dominant and win more of his challenged duels to eventually be better than Maguire right? Otherwise, that might be bit of a large projection looking at the current stats.
I, again haven't watched much of Branthwaite so will defer to your judgement if that's the case.
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I do wonder if perhaps he might be better than Maguire at directing where his headers go. Maguire is obviously fantastic at winning anything in the air, but he's relatively poor at directing it and it does play it's part in giving the ball straight back to the opposition a bit more often than I'd prefer. It's something that was quite obvious when Martinez came in, he won't win as many but he has a great ability to find a teammate when he does win them. It's also why Maguire scores so little from corners despite getting on the end of an incredible amount of them.
No idea how Branthwaite compares, as like you I haven't watched much of him. It's just something that I could see an improvement in an ideal world.
As we used to say in the playground, he’s got a 50p head. Ball might go anywhere.
This might drive sales at a few clubs this summer, given how seriously the PL seem to be taking this (other than City, obvs.). Morgan Gibbs-White at Forest is another who might go for less than expected for that reason.
Needing to generate cash puts the selling clubs in a difficult position in negotiations - unless they've got other talent they can move on. One of Onana or Branthwaite will leave Everton, I suspect.
I hope we don't. Plenty of talented players who will be available for decent price. Spending big money is just madness at this point.
Yeah that's why I'm really interested if someone who watches both Utd and Everton can unequivocally say based on the eye test, he's 'better' than Maguire aerially because I'm surprised that hasn't been acknowledged or talked about much; I mean it's a pretty outstanding attribute!
As for Martinez, I agree. I think statistically he's quite poor but outside of set pieces (i.e standing/moving jumps where the opposition can have a lot more freer movement), I don't feel he 'loses' much aerially because of his positioning and reading of the ball. In open play e.g in the middle of the pitch, he may not win the first header but the winner of that duel doesn't direct or control it that easily. Martinez basically bums them with his groin (
) /hip so that they are off balance. It's honestly quite a sight to watch at times.Maguire was immense at Leicester and his first season with us. He seems to have lost something since; be that a few inches in explosive leap, or a yard in pace to get close enough to be first up and above everyone. He definitely was a top level attacker and director of the ball for a good few years though.
Interesting if true.
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Surely we could help with that by getting both?
So rather than £60m for one do £40m per player?
Means little for us as we have our own accounting to focus on up to 30 June. From my understanding, any big purchase of our own will need to be after 30 June too.
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Well… shit.
What if we make a good sale or two before then?
I doubt that is true.
First, I dont think we are that close to a breach in any sense. Second, if we bought a player at the end of june, the cost in 23/24 would basically be zero. Would we depreciate him in 23/24? Probably not. And his first salary would probably be in a new fiscal year.
If it was true, I think we would struggle to buy even after june.
Can we chuck Everton Maguire and McTominay for Branthwaite and Onana? Both of them are one year left so are modestly priced than what they were a year ago.
Why would Everton do that? Weakening their own team, strenghten our team while also increasing their wage bill?
Everton are probably going to lose both their players. So you need to compare Maguire and McTominay to whoever they would sign to replace. I still don’t think Everton would do it, but it’s not that far fetched and both the united players are good enough for where Everton are now. They might even get a deal on wages.
Do swaps ever happen any more? I can't remember the last high profile one (Sanchez for Mkhitaryan probably). If it did happen I think we'd get one of them not both.