ISIS in Iraq and Syria

The more information that trickles out, the more it seems he's been wounded. At least they know where he is, as the circumference around Al Qaim is now probably being blanketed by the US coverage.

Apparently his close companion Abu Suja has been confirmed dead, who was supposedly rarely separate with Baghdadi so it seems likely Baghdadi was hit. If he was lucky enough to survive this time it's only a matter of time before the cnut is obliterated.
 
Injured but probably not dead. What's more important than his fate is actually the fact that he was located, so quickly I might add. This clearly suggests that there are inside sources leaking some sensitive info about the organization.
How do you know he's injured though?
 
Mishtenur hill in Kobane has been liberated. This is the most strategic point surrounding Kobane and was the area from which ISIS first attacked. It was liberated as a result of a strong offensive over days, on the Southern front. What this means is that those rats in the East of the town have been surrounded with nowhere to run. Peshmerga are currently pummelling them with artillery.
 
Another huge victory for the Iraqi forces as they entered the center of Baiji, one of ISIS' biggest strongholds in Iraq.

The Iraqi forces are now in control of the center of the city (although the fight is still ongoing) and are pushing north to break the siege of the Baiji oil refinery.

On other fronts..

- In Diyala the Iraqi forces liberated Al-Udhaim's Dam.

- In Anbar they've liberated a few areas around Ameriyat Al-Falluja (after liberating the strategic Jurf Al-Sakhar), easing to some extent ISIS' pressure on the town.

- They're also still amassing some forces around Hit (in Anbar) preparing to liberate it from ISIS (which would take some time).

- The Iraqi forces also managed to clear some strategic roads connecting Saladdin with Anbar and Kirkuk, and broke the siege on 500 Iraqi soldiers in Anbar (near a bridge north west of Falluja).
 
Since the message was directly from Baghdadi its significant. He calls the family of abdullah the head of the snake, and this is the first time im aware of this happening. He says that Saudi citizens should attack the rafidah, the soldiers and palace officials and finally the 'crusader' bases - in that order. Then he says tells the citizens to have patience and the IS will eventually reach them. I think we'll see more attacks in saudi as a result of this message.
 
Since the message was directly from Baghdadi its significant. He calls the family of abdullah the head of the snake, and this is the first time im aware of this happening. He says that Saudi citizens should attack the rafidah, the soldiers and palace officials and finally the 'crusader' bases - in that order. Then he says tells the citizens to have patience and the IS will eventually reach them. I think we'll see more attacks in saudi as a result of this message.

So he's not dead? Or is this a prerecord we message they had planned to release should he die?
 
English translation - https://ia801509.us.archive.org/6/items/kalimah_201411/english.pdf


They're gonna bring back the dinar and dirham.

B2VoJnKCUAAR86e.jpg
 
So he's not dead? Or is this a prerecord we message they had planned to release should he die?
They're not really known for recording messages and releasing them a lot later on. My guess is that it's very recent. I don't think he was harmed at all, personally.
 
So he's not dead? Or is this a prerecord we message they had planned to release should he die?
He's most probably not dead (and if the recording was genuine then clearly he isn't), but he has no real significance in the fight imo.

I think releasing that tape has as much to do with his fate as them feeling the need to raise the morale of their fighters after a series of heavy defeats in the last few weeks.

:lol:

They're not really known for recording messages and releasing them a lot later on. My guess is that it's very recent. I don't think he was harmed at all, personally.
It's not a guess. The recording is recent because he referred to Obama's decision to send 1500 more advisers to Iraq.
 
He's most probably not dead (and if the recording was genuine then clearly he isn't), but he has no real significance in the fight imo.

I think releasing that tape has as much to do with his fate as them feeling the need to raise the morale of their fighters after a series of heavy defeats in the last few weeks.


:lol:


It's not a guess. The recording is recent because he referred to Obama's decision to send 1500 more advisers to Iraq.
Did he? I must have seen a different one to you then. I saw like a minute long one.
 
I was reading a book about Salahuddin recently and some of the recent events are so similar.
 
Kobane: Peshmerga having fun with the mortars.

 
Documentary on the Kurds in Rojava (Syria) and their fight against ISIS. Worth a watch.

 
What do you mean by losing the fight?
Let me change the question, that one was way too broad. How far do you think this 'caliphate' will get? Will they get a lot more land? Will they be crushed a lot earlier on? What are your views on how this will turn out in the long run?
 
Let me change the question, that one was way too broad. How far do you think this 'caliphate' will get? Will they get a lot more land? Will they be crushed a lot earlier on? What are your views on how this will turn out in the long run?

They've gotten as far as they can. Taking over more land will be incredibly prohibitive now that U.S. and other planes are bombing their sites. The name of the game going forward will be to fortify what they currently have to avoid the perception they are shrinking. In Iraq, holding onto Mosul will be critical. If the Iraqi army, Pesh, and U.S. planes mount a campaign to take back Mosul it will probably mean most ISIS fighters in Iraq will go underground and/or flee to Syria.
 
Let me change the question, that one was way too broad. How far do you think this 'caliphate' will get? Will they get a lot more land? Will they be crushed a lot earlier on? What are your views on how this will turn out in the long run?
Get more land? How? They can't even hold on to what they have under their control right now.

This "caliphate" bubble will burst eventually, it has no chance of survival. How long will it take? I don't know, but their end in Iraq will be easier and quicker than in Syria. If they fight on then it may take about a year before Iraq is ISIS free (as far as control over land goes).
 
They've gotten as far as they can. Taking over more land will be incredibly prohibitive now that U.S. and other planes are bombing their sites. The name of the game going forward will be to fortify what they currently have to avoid the perception they are shrinking. In Iraq, holding onto Mosul will be critical. If the Iraqi army, Pesh, and U.S. planes mount a campaign to take back Mosul it will probably mean most ISIS fighters in Iraq will go underground and/or flee to Syria.

To be honest, as a westerner, I'm more scared about what will happen when they retreat back underground, regroup and come up with another form of attack.

At the moment all their efforts are focused on war in particular zones. If they are forced back, I could imagining them focusing their efforts on organising atrocious attention grabbing acts of terror in western countries.
 
To be honest, as a westerner, I'm more scared about what will happen when they retreat back underground, regroup and come up with another form of attack.

At the moment all their efforts are focused on war in particular zones. If they are forced back, I could imagining them focusing their efforts on organising atrocious attention grabbing acts of terror in western countries.

They are much less effective when underground. There will still be things like car bombs and one off attacks, but nothing on the heinous scale of taking over major cities, mass executions, rapes, etc.
 
Let me change the question, that one was way too broad. How far do you think this 'caliphate' will get? Will they get a lot more land? Will they be crushed a lot earlier on? What are your views on how this will turn out in the long run?

Always going to be hard for them to expand much beyond the Sunni tribal lands between Aleppo and Baghdad, where they draw support from a local population with a real sense of grievance against the political order both sides of the Syria/Iraq border. As soon as they run up against Kurds, Alawis, Shia, etc, it becomes a real battle for them. In this sense they're similar to the Taliban, who have always struggled to draw support from outside the Pakhtun heartlands of Af-Pak.

Conversely, as long as that sense of grievance remains, they'll retain some measure of support and will remain somewhat relevant no matter how much a combination of Syrian/Iraqi/American forces pound them. Hopefully their brutal and sectarian nature will eventually isolate their own base - if anyone can manage it it's these guys. Ultimately though, the Sunnis of Syria and Iraq are going to have to be convinced that their interests lie in political reintegration into those states.
 
Always going to be hard for them to expand much beyond the Sunni tribal lands between Aleppo and Baghdad, where they draw support from a local population with a real sense of grievance against the political order both sides of the Syria/Iraq border. As soon as they run up against Kurds, Alawis, Shia, etc, it becomes a real battle for them. In this sense they're similar to the Taliban, who have always struggled to draw support from outside the Pakhtun heartlands of Af-Pak.

Conversely, as long as that sense of grievance remains, they'll retain some measure of support and will remain somewhat relevant no matter how much a combination of Syrian/Iraqi/American forces pound them. Hopefully their brutal and sectarian nature will eventually isolate their own base - if anyone can manage it it's these guys. Ultimately though, the Sunnis of Syria and Iraq are going to have to be convinced that their interests lie in political reintegration into those states.
Thats the thing, within the past few days a number of other mujahideen groups have given bay'ah to Baghdadi - That means they're basically apart of ISIS. Only time will tell.
 
Thats the thing, within the past few days a number of other mujahideen groups have given bay'ah to Baghdadi - That means they're basically apart of ISIS. Only time will tell.

Ah I get you, I thought you were talking purely in terms of Iraq/Syria. Elsewhere in places like Yemen, Algeria, etc., I think jihadi groups with their very own specific set of localized grievances will try to attach themselves to whatever global franchise is seen as the strong horse. Right now that's al-Baghdadi and the Islamic State. But it's dependent on the Islamic State's continued success. So Iraq and Syria are crucial.