ISIS in Iraq and Syria
- Thread starter Suli
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And ?
You think Erdogan is doing this with Obama telling him to get out?
Not sure why you think this is a big deal especially since you support Putin's actions in Syria. If Erdogan is there with the KRG's (who controls northern non-ISIS Iraq) support then what's the big deal ?
Only a matter of time before Russian ships are told to feck off when crossing the Turkish straights.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-russia-idUSKBN0TP0JW20151206
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomac...ps-if-turkeys-security-threatened_406058.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-russia-idUSKBN0TP0JW20151206
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomac...ps-if-turkeys-security-threatened_406058.html
1- So, just to get this straight before moving on to your next point, so now Obama, "finally", made the wrong decision, but "it's not a big deal"?
2- Turkey's incursion of Iraq's sovereignty is nothing like Russia's involvement in Syria. Russia has the permission of the central and legitimate government of Syria according to the international law, and they're fighting the terrorists. Turkey is neither this nor that. Russia also offered the Iraqi government to help in Iraq but the Iraqi government (stupidly) refused and Russia respected its decision.
3- So..., you think a country directly invading another country without the permission of the central government because of an agreement with the local authorities is fine? Really?? I'm not going to tell you what the real comparable situation to this. I'll let you think first.
1- So, just to get this straight before moving on to your next point, so now, "finally", made the wrong decision, but "it's not a big deal"?
2- Turkey's incursion of Iraq's sovereignty is nothing like Russia's involvement in Syria. Russia has the permission of the central and legitimate government of Syria according to the international law, and they're fighting the terrorists. Turkey is neither this nor that. Russia also offered the Iraqi government to help in Iraq but the Iraqi government (stupidly) refused and Russia respected its decision.
3- So..., you think a country directly invading another country without the permission of the central government because of an agreement with the local authorities is fine? Really?? I'm not going to tell you what the real comparable situation to this. I'll let you think first.
Turkey has been doing this for years - especially during the Iraq war when the PKK were launching operations into southeastern Turkey and Erdogan was retaliating with airstrikes into northern Kurdistan, usually with the knowledge of Maliki I might add. Coming into northern Iraq is nothing new, with the notable exception that this time, it is apparently at a minimum, with the tacit support of the KRG for the purposes of training the Pesh to fight ISIS. Its really the least of worries for anyone in the region, unless of course they are Iranian/Russian stooges who don't want the Turks involved for political reasons.
You didn't really answer any of my 3 points. I'll wait first for some clear answers before correcting the mistakes in this post.
I answered all items that are relevant to the issue. We're dealing with a regional proxy war at this point, so you can't expect the Russians being in Syria, the US being in Iraq, and the Turks coming into Kurdistan at the behest of the KRG to be a surprising phenomenon. It is part of what this entire mess has devolved into.
It's quite scary really. The world is slowly getting dragged deeper and deeper into this mess. I can't see how it will be resolved.
I don't believe that either of examples you cited are as readily comparable as you suggest, nor your depiction of the West's mindset with regard to Syria. Hesitancy and uncertainty predominated at the outset of hostilities, and this scarcely improved over the years which followed. The employment of chemical weapons only added additional complexity, for whilst it was a red line for some the absence of anything approaching a succession plan rightly helped to sink Cameron's vote in 2013.
But here we are a further two years down the road, with a humanitarian/migrant crisis involving millions and IS far stronger than they were previously. The public in many countries would like to see their leaders act to alleviate both problems, which quite rankly they have allowed to deteriorate for some time. Thus far British air strikes have been targeting economic interests, if these increase the organisations dependence upon external sources for support then that would be a good thing. Similarly, if last week's parliament better enables us to target fighters for whom the security services have concerns, that too is a benefit IMO.
I do not myself take the 70,000 figures seriously in the least, nor do i view groups like al-Nusra as the future recipients of some client kingdom status. For too long we've sat back and watched the neighbouring powers and their proxies act our behalf, whose ends has it served? If it isn't practical for us to reside in isolation then i'd much rather that we a took a more direct role in events. I expect pragmatism to win out in the end: the West will have to accept Assad's continued rule over a diminished Syrian state, whereas the regime will have to acknowledge that there is certain territory beyond its means to reoccupy and reconstruct in the near future (leaving such to UN administration most likely).
I fail to see why such longer term initiatives and immediate military endeavours must be mutually exclusive. For all practical purposes Corbyn has no answers for the tens of thousands of fighters on the ground right now.
Syria conflict: Coalition denies air strike on army camp
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35024408
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35024408
Expect more stories like this to surface in the future. There's no way there won't be some mission creep involved considering the West's history with 'interventions' in the region.
Though I wanna see if the pilots are brave enough to target the Russians...
Clearly the Turks are "brave" enough to target them.
And are now bricking the mistake they've made to the extent they can no longer fly planes in Syria
And are now bricking the mistake they've made to the extent they can no longer fly planes in Syria
They and the Russians are both losers because of it. Turkey will take an economic hit and the Russians are forced to eat a bit of humble pie in that they can't do whatever they want without repercussions. Putin will think twice next time he instructs his pilots to violate Erdogan's airspace.
A bit rich considering Turkey is pretty much waltzing into Iraq and having a run around despite being told to feck off back to the other side of the border by the Iraqi government.
Can you blame them. They have a small cadre of troops who originally came in with the cooperation of the central government and the KRG to help train anti-ISIS fighters in the north, and probably realized they needed to protect their own troops.
Turkey training anti-ISIS fighters, good one.
Regardless the nation's government have asked them to leave and they've refused. So they're violating international law.
I think its a storm in a tea cup - no action will be taken by any side and Turkey and Baghdad, who have good relations, will sort things out. But rest assured, if Iraq has no control of the north and the Turks wanted to set up shop with KRG support, there's nothing the central government can do about it. The UN doesn't care and nothing would get through the security council anyway.
Can they resolve it with a phone call?
Austerity bites as Islamic State's oil income hit by US-led bombing campaign
Internal "taxation" now biggest source of income for jihadists, study finds, as they are forced to cut fighters' salaries
By Louisa Loveluck
07 Dec 2015
The US-led bombing campaign against Isil has cut its oil revenues and squeezed its finances to a point where it is cutting fighters’ salaries, according to a new report.
Sixteen months into the air campaign against the jihadists, daily bombing runs have “significantly degraded” Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (Isil) capacity to refine oil at the network of refineries it controls in Iraq and Syria, said IHS, a global intelligence firm.
A selection of Isil's internal documents, published separately, also suggest rising paranoia in the group, prompting crackdowns on dissent and smuggling. There has also been a decline in the quantity and quality of its once-notorious propaganda videos and other material.
According to IHS, the terror group now rakes in a monthly profit estimated at £53 million, around half of which comes from taxation and confiscation, with most of the rest from oil.
This figure underscores the extent to which Isil is self-reliant, making most of its money through the establishment of a violent and predatory bureaucracy which imposes a 20 per cent tax on all commercial activities, confiscates land and properties, and runs a side-line in the smuggling of goods including antiquities pilfered from inside its territory.
Although Isil now collects the water and electricity bills of millions of residents, the services themselves are often run by the same administrators who worked for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.
Internal documents reveal an pattern of coercing these personnel to return to work, according to Aymenn al-Tamimi, a researcher who has compiled an archive of internal communiques.
The documents, published by the Guardian newspaper on Monday, also show how the terrorist group has set about building a state in Iraq and Syria complete with government departments, an economic plan for self-sufficiency, and a programme of indoctrination for the new generation growing up inside Isil’s so-called caliphate.
But as the damage to Isil’s oil network inside Iraq and Syria starts to bite, there are early indications that the group is struggling to balance its budget, IHS said, with reports of cuts to fighters’ salaries, price hikes on electricity and other basic services, and the introduction of new agricultural taxes.
Isil documentation also reveals rising paranoia. According to Mr Tamimi, the last five months has seen a noticeable rise in the number of documents relating to security measures and military mobilisation. This has included a complete prohibition on private Wi-Fi networks and a crackdown on the smuggling of gold, copper and iron.
Activists from Raqqa say that arrests of so-called traitors are on the rise, as Isil cracks down on perceived spies and dissenters in its midst.
Tax revenues are proving a tricky target for the US-led coalition - stopping them will require the wholesale recapture of Isil-held land. Analysts say this will only be achieved in conjunction with a viable ground force drawn from the sort of Sunni Arab communities that Isil has sought to terrorise and co-opt.
Even then, it would require a violent assault on Sunni-majority cities like Fallujah and Mosul which could cause numerous civilian casualties.
A new US intelligence report into the Pentagon’s fight against Isil, previewed by the American news website The Daily Beast on Monday, said the group would continue to proliferate terror abroad unless it suffered a significant loss of territory on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria.
The conclusions stand in contrast to the White House’s assurances that Isil has been “contained” in its Syrian and Iraqi heartland.
They are believed to be forcing a rethink of the administration’s policy towards the terror group, less than a week after it inspired a husband and wife in California to mount lone wolf attacks inside a centre for the disabled, killing 14 people.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...il-income-hit-by-US-led-bombing-campaign.html
Internal "taxation" now biggest source of income for jihadists, study finds, as they are forced to cut fighters' salaries
By Louisa Loveluck
07 Dec 2015
The US-led bombing campaign against Isil has cut its oil revenues and squeezed its finances to a point where it is cutting fighters’ salaries, according to a new report.
Sixteen months into the air campaign against the jihadists, daily bombing runs have “significantly degraded” Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (Isil) capacity to refine oil at the network of refineries it controls in Iraq and Syria, said IHS, a global intelligence firm.
A selection of Isil's internal documents, published separately, also suggest rising paranoia in the group, prompting crackdowns on dissent and smuggling. There has also been a decline in the quantity and quality of its once-notorious propaganda videos and other material.
According to IHS, the terror group now rakes in a monthly profit estimated at £53 million, around half of which comes from taxation and confiscation, with most of the rest from oil.
This figure underscores the extent to which Isil is self-reliant, making most of its money through the establishment of a violent and predatory bureaucracy which imposes a 20 per cent tax on all commercial activities, confiscates land and properties, and runs a side-line in the smuggling of goods including antiquities pilfered from inside its territory.
Although Isil now collects the water and electricity bills of millions of residents, the services themselves are often run by the same administrators who worked for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.
Internal documents reveal an pattern of coercing these personnel to return to work, according to Aymenn al-Tamimi, a researcher who has compiled an archive of internal communiques.
The documents, published by the Guardian newspaper on Monday, also show how the terrorist group has set about building a state in Iraq and Syria complete with government departments, an economic plan for self-sufficiency, and a programme of indoctrination for the new generation growing up inside Isil’s so-called caliphate.
But as the damage to Isil’s oil network inside Iraq and Syria starts to bite, there are early indications that the group is struggling to balance its budget, IHS said, with reports of cuts to fighters’ salaries, price hikes on electricity and other basic services, and the introduction of new agricultural taxes.
Isil documentation also reveals rising paranoia. According to Mr Tamimi, the last five months has seen a noticeable rise in the number of documents relating to security measures and military mobilisation. This has included a complete prohibition on private Wi-Fi networks and a crackdown on the smuggling of gold, copper and iron.
Activists from Raqqa say that arrests of so-called traitors are on the rise, as Isil cracks down on perceived spies and dissenters in its midst.
Tax revenues are proving a tricky target for the US-led coalition - stopping them will require the wholesale recapture of Isil-held land. Analysts say this will only be achieved in conjunction with a viable ground force drawn from the sort of Sunni Arab communities that Isil has sought to terrorise and co-opt.
Even then, it would require a violent assault on Sunni-majority cities like Fallujah and Mosul which could cause numerous civilian casualties.
A new US intelligence report into the Pentagon’s fight against Isil, previewed by the American news website The Daily Beast on Monday, said the group would continue to proliferate terror abroad unless it suffered a significant loss of territory on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria.
The conclusions stand in contrast to the White House’s assurances that Isil has been “contained” in its Syrian and Iraqi heartland.
They are believed to be forcing a rethink of the administration’s policy towards the terror group, less than a week after it inspired a husband and wife in California to mount lone wolf attacks inside a centre for the disabled, killing 14 people.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...il-income-hit-by-US-led-bombing-campaign.html
Iraq PM says IS smuggles majority of oil via Turkey.
https://news.yahoo.com/iraq-pm-says-smuggles-majority-oil-via-turkey-174734468.html
https://news.yahoo.com/iraq-pm-says-smuggles-majority-oil-via-turkey-174734468.html
And that's why hundreds of Daesh oil trucks have been destroyed on their way to the border along with refineries.
Presuming Syria is not going to be able to function as a full unified state even once (if) Daesh are removed from the equation and Assad has agreed to stand down how do the other powers / factions want things carved up?
Presumably the Kurds want either a recognised Kurdistan or at least a Kurdish region
Presumably the turks and iraqis dont want this
pro assad forces want to keep power
anti assad forces want to take power
Hezbolla wants to maintain / expand influence
Israel wants to stop hezbolla and keep iraninan / saudi influence to a minimum
iran wants to keep israel and saudi influence to a minimum
saudi wants to keep iran and israel influence to a minimum
russia wants to maintain a russian friendly regime
the west want to impose a western friendly regime
can anybody envisage a solution that can actually stop things getting a lot worse? or should we just except that at some point its going to flair up into a far bigger mess (that may eventually get sorted but probably wont)
Presumably the Kurds want either a recognised Kurdistan or at least a Kurdish region
Presumably the turks and iraqis dont want this
pro assad forces want to keep power
anti assad forces want to take power
Hezbolla wants to maintain / expand influence
Israel wants to stop hezbolla and keep iraninan / saudi influence to a minimum
iran wants to keep israel and saudi influence to a minimum
saudi wants to keep iran and israel influence to a minimum
russia wants to maintain a russian friendly regime
the west want to impose a western friendly regime
can anybody envisage a solution that can actually stop things getting a lot worse? or should we just except that at some point its going to flair up into a far bigger mess (that may eventually get sorted but probably wont)
"We cannot sow bloodshed, and reap peace."
Yeah!
Ceasefire / Peace deal negotiated between govt and rebels in Homs.
That's complicated things.
the start of a carve up? (eg draw a line through homs donw to the jordanian iraq syria border intersection
Asad (with russian backing) to rule in the west - and the rebels / Isis the kurds, turkey (iraq, iran and saudi by proxy) and the western coalition left to try and sort out the mess in the rest of the country?
Would possibly leave a managable area for Assad and Russia (leaving tartus naval base open to russians) - and leave an absolute quagmire to be sorted out in the rest of the country.
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Most of Ramadi now liberated by Iraqi forces. Only a matter of time before all the Daesh rats are purged from there.
I doubt that. In the long run Assad can´t compromise the axis Dara, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo + everything that is west of this. ISIS and the Kurds could co-exist with Assad. The same can´t be said about the other rebels and Assad.
These kind of ceasefires could open a path to negotiations with local strongmen that are part of the insurgency. They accept Assad in return for an Amnesty and local power. Dunno if that is realistic.
Levant Front have released a video of them educating captured IS soldiers.
Is "Educating" a euphemism for something else? Or are they sat in classes looking at a blackboard?
It's clever what they did.
They had them in blindfolds and orange jumpsuits with Levant Front shooters behind them holding guns to their heads.
The LF shooters walk off, and an khatib walks on in a white thawb, gives them a khutba on what they are doing is wrong and a perversion, and then they are taken away and imprisoned.
I wrote educated as no one would know what I was on about if I mention khutba / khatib/ thawb etc
That is really clever! From certain execution to an admonishment.
The funniest thing is I discovered this from UniLad.
http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62239
A good summery about the opposition conferences in Riyadh, Rumeilan and Damascus
A good summery about the opposition conferences in Riyadh, Rumeilan and Damascus
Its become a pointless summit considering the YPG aren't invited, and now Ahrar al Sham have pulled out. What you're essentially left with are the damp squibs, who won't be able to control the most organised of the opposition fighters who will probably carry on doing their own thing.