ISIS in Iraq and Syria

Any air strikes in Syria are illegal unless they are invited by Syrian authority.

Russia although invited in supporting Assad are responsible for killing innocents and supporting someone who's crimes are well documented.

And the same applies to every other major power involved.

There are no good guys in this conflict.
 
A broad range of Sunni countries led by Saudi Arabia regard the expansion of Iranian power in the region to be a greater threat to them than jihadism, and so see ISIS as a useful buffer against Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria.

The Syrian government is not entirely unhappy about the rise of ISIS as it makes them look better by comparison and thus draws international support to their side while they fight the other rebel groups which pose a much greater threat.

The rise of ISIS has made the Syrian and Iraqi governments far more dependent on Iranian support, this facilitating the spread of Iranian power in the region, so the Iranians also benefit.

Turkey regards the possibility of Kurdish autonomy as a greater threat to it than ISIS, and so sees them as a useful buffer against the Kurds.

Israel sits back and watches the 'Resistance' bloc and Sunni jihadists kill each other and is probably delighted.

Ultimately, while ISIS hates them all (but reserves special hatred for Iran), the only regional government that appears to regard ISIS as their main enemy is the Iraqi one.

Spot on analysis.
 
Any air strikes in Syria are illegal unless they are invited by Syrian authority.

Russia although invited in supporting Assad are responsible for killing innocents and supporting someone who's crimes are well documented.

Not only that, but it just highlights that a bombing campaign can't defeat people like ISIS when they have entire cities to in their domain. The civilian casualties would be massive, which is why this campaign is doomed from the start. It will also ratchet up more anti-Assad support among the likes of Turkey and the Gulf states, which will cause yet more instability .
 
Syria is a failed state and Iraq is not too far away from being one since the central government has hemorrhaged influence beyond the Shi'a areas. Assad, until a few weeks ago, was on the cusp of rebels closing in on him before Putin and the Iranians concocted a scheme to intervene. He's struggling to survive, much less rout ISIS.
The last time the West and Russians got involved in Afghanistan and Iraq 10's of thousands were killed. Al Qaeda was created. Taliban came into power.

Iraq, as you described is still a failed state. Afghanistan no better. I just don't understand the many agendas of decision makers.
 
The last time the West and Russians got involved in Afghanistan and Iraq 10's of thousands were killed. Al Qaeda was created. Taliban came into power.

Iraq, as you described is still a failed state. Afghanistan no better. I just don't understand the many agendas of decision makers.

Except that Syria is a different case. This was an organic revolution that happened because Assad crushed dissent in Dara'a, which led to the situation spiralling out of control and ISIS and other groups to enter the picture.
 
A broad range of Sunni countries led by Saudi Arabia regard the expansion of Iranian power in the region to be a greater threat to them than jihadism, and so see ISIS as a useful buffer against Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria.

The Syrian government is not entirely unhappy about the rise of ISIS as it makes them look better by comparison and thus draws international support to their side while they fight the other rebel groups which pose a much greater threat.

The rise of ISIS has made the Syrian and Iraqi governments far more dependent on Iranian support, this facilitating the spread of Iranian power in the region, so the Iranians also benefit.

Turkey regards the possibility of Kurdish autonomy as a greater threat to it than ISIS, and so sees them as a useful buffer against the Kurds.

Israel sits back and watches the 'Resistance' bloc and Sunni jihadists kill each other and is probably delighted.

Ultimately, while ISIS hates them all (but reserves special hatred for Iran), the only regional government that appears to regard ISIS as their main enemy is the Iraqi one.
Brilliant!

Lot's of truth in your analysis.
 
@2cents - and what of the US and Russia?

They're backing their sides as 'Great Powers' do, only Russia is doing it with far more enthusiasm as, unlike the US, it is 100% certain what side it is on. Whereas Obama seems caught between the traditional US acquiescence to Saudi and Israeli wishes in the region and an obvious personal desire for rapprochement with Iran (but I think he'd prefer to wash his hands of the region altogether).
 
They're backing their sides as 'Great Powers' do, only Russia is doing it with far more enthusiasm as, unlike the US, it is 100% certain what side it is on. Whereas Obama seems caught between the traditional US acquiescence to Saudi and Israeli wishes in the region and an obvious personal desire for rapprochement with Iran (but I think he'd prefer to wash his hands of the region altogether).

I think you're very much spot on so far, and would just add that I think top levels of the US government really don't see a clear path to success (I also don't, Syria is really fubar), and most importantly the US public has no interest in any large-scale action. One of Obama's promises was that he'd get out of Iraq & Afghanistan, and he's slowly done that, and I think he still enjoys support on that point. We're now 14 years from 9/11, the average american probably feels relatively safe, and probably doesn't give a s*** about Syria.
 
Oh come on, half the posts in this thread are about how bad RT is.

How dare you not trust the BBC and CNN ? Throw in Al-Jazeera while you're at it.

They are the paragons of unbiased and neutral reporting of events unfolding around the world. RT is clearly run the devil himself.
 
The rebels published a video footage of the Russian strike "on the hospital" which clearly shows the strikes didn't hit the hospital and it seems that they have been immediately notified that the footage actually exposes the lies of SOHR and the Western media, and now they're trying to scramble a way out of it by editing and re-editing their youtube titles/facebook posts. :lol:

What's funny is that in the footage itself they don't even mention anything about the hospital being targeted at all, so now you have the funny situation of the titles saying something and the footage actually saying something pretty much different (in the video he only mentions a 'school being hit' and they changed the title to "school close to the hospital" and now "school adjacent to the hospital" (of course only in the titles/posts, the videos don't say anything about the hospital being targeted)..
 
The rebels published a video footage of the Russian strike "on the hospital" which clearly shows the strikes didn't hit the hospital and it seems that they have been immediately notified that the footage actually exposes the lies of SOHR and the Western media, and now they're trying to scramble a way out of it by editing and re-editing their youtube titles/facebook posts. :lol:

What's funny is that in the footage itself they don't even mention anything about the hospital being targeted at all, so now you have the funny situation of the titles saying something and the footage actually saying something pretty much different (in the video he only mentions a 'school being hit' and they changed the title to "school close to the hospital" and now "school adjacent to the hospital" (of course only in the titles/posts, the videos don't say anything about the hospital being targeted)..

Interesting turn of events. Should we still trust the guy in coventry ? :wenger:
 
Wait! They deleted I think two of the videos now! The ones showing the field hospital totally intact from inside as they were videotaping the injured being carried into it! :lol:
 
I think they won't change much now, because it's already been on for a couple of hours and they probably realised it's now too late to remove/edit them.

Here is their facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/sarmeen12

Here are the two videos they didn't delete.





I took a few snapshots when I saw they're editing and deleting things...

Here is the first snapshot showing the edited facebook post, which they eventually deleted. At first it stated "the wounded arriving at the hospital", then they edited it to: "the wounded arriving at the emergency department which is the part with the least damage of the hospital" then they probably realised how silly that is (for many obvious reasons, least of all the people can still watch the video and see), so they deleted the post altogether and the video.

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And here is a snapshot of the video it was linking to (which they deleted)..

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And here is a snapshot of another video they deleted showing the wounded inside the field hospital (after the second strike)..

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Here is their youtube page..

https://www.youtube.com/user/SarmeenFree/videos

You can also see how they're editing the titles of the youtube videos as when you look at this facebook post (which is still there till now):

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You can see the post in facebook says "school near the field hospital", and the link for the video says "close to the field hospital" and when you click on the video on youtube now it was edited again to "adjacent to the hospital".

ruwqit.jpg


They can't of course change it to "they hit the hospital" because in the video itself he says 'the school was hit' and doesn't mention anything about the hospital, but they realised now what they have done and they're trying desperately to fix it.

Anyway, according to this footage (which the 'rebels' themselves published), it's pretty clear that no hospital or even field hospital was targeted in the air strikes.

And by the way, worth mentioning here since the man in the video said the 'school' was targeted that none of the wounded shown in the footage (even the ones they deleted) were children or women.
 
Hilarious watching the pro US and pro Russian posters taking potshots at each other. Both cut from the same cloth, the sad thing is the people of Iraq & Syria are forgotten in this whole mess, poor feckers being bombed into the stone ages.
Best post of the thread right here.
 
Any air strikes in Syria are illegal unless they are invited by Syrian authority.

Russia although invited in supporting Assad are responsible for killing innocents and supporting someone who's crimes are well documented.

So they're like anyone else there then, except they are there legally. As for killing innocents, there are plenty of state leaders and governments out there that have done the same and will never face any consequences of their actions.
 
So they're like anyone else there then, except they are there legally. As for killing innocents, there are plenty of state leaders and governments out there that have done the same and will never face any consequences of their actions.
Yes.

These undercooked, misplaced agenda driven policies have been a major cause in an upsurge in violent extremism.
 
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And by the way, worth mentioning here since the man in the video said the 'school' was targeted that none of the wounded shown in the footage (even the ones they deleted) were children or women.

I hope it's not a dig at the Syrian moderate rebel school system. Some of those pupils were clearly held back a few years, judging by their beards.
 
Not only that, but it just highlights that a bombing campaign can't defeat people like ISIS when they have entire cities to in their domain. The civilian casualties would be massive, which is why this campaign is doomed from the start. It will also ratchet up more anti-Assad support among the likes of Turkey and the Gulf states, which will cause yet more instability .

Of course, just a bombing campaign cannot defeat ISIS. Russian airstrikes are just part of the joint offensive along with the Syrian army and some Iranian fighters on the ground.

 
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I'll just repond here because I can't be arsed to go up and multi-quote.

Let's forget about the 'one-man covvie' angle and talk of conspiracy and just think of the implications of trusting a man who is openly aligned to the opposition.

Firstly, would there be any way of really verifying his stories? You mention his media corraborators, but if they've pretty much accepted him to be the one-stop show for all Syrian news, then we're essentially stuck in a endless loop of unverified stories. If many pro-western media outlets have pretty much accepted his sources as gospel, what's to stop him conjuring up and story and pushing it? It happened during the Iraq war and Libya, where supposed 'internal experts' had conjured up stories about massacres, no one had verified them, and years later they had belatedly been proven to be false. It was of course too late since those countries had since been ransacked. There's of course the other issue of SOHR neglecting to report the massacres and crimes committed by the opposition, and we know they were plentiful.

Regarding RT, well of course they're a untrustworthy source, I never claimed otherwise. But like it or not, they're no different to the SOHR in the sense that their loyalties towards a certain faction are evident.

So I'll ask this question - Do you think its right for a man/organisation who openly backs one side in a civil war, to be an impartial source of human rights observation for this very same civil war?

To the first bolded bit - when I said it can be corroborated in my earlier post, I meant, it can be corroborated by non-SOHR cited sources i.e. independent of the SOHR. And tbh - he does report on all aspects of the civil war. Honestly, you should really go onto the site and see for yourself. The articles are like small 2-3 sentenced lines like the one I posted earlier. There's no opinion pieces on there. If you do see an opinion piece, it's a link to an outside source about the civil war.

The difference with Russian news sources is that what they report can be proven to be disingenuous or a bold faced lie. There's a few examples of it in the Ukraine thread. You can't put SOHR in the same pool as Russian news sources. Russian news sources are notorious for bending/twisting the truth or coming out with a bold faced lie. They are not the same.

To your question - if he was reporting things that are proven to be untrue, I'd agree with you. But as I said earlier, the incidents are also reported by non SOHR sources, and can be corroborated through different avenues of information that have no affiliation with SOHR. Furthermore, like I said previously, if the SOHR actively gave opinions on the information, and presented it in a biased or agenda driven way, I'd agree with you, but there's no evidence of the stories being presented in such a way.

Here's the news story from today:

Russian warplanes carry out at least 7 raids on Lattakia’s mountains
October 23, 2015 Comments Offon Russian warplanes carry out at least 7 raids on Lattakia’s mountains


Lattakia Province:

The Russian warplanes carried out at least 7 raids this morning on places in Salam and its vicinity in Jabal al- Akrad in the northern countryside of Lattakia, amid ongoing clashes between the regime forces and allied militiamen against the rebel and Islamist factions around the village of Kafar Dablah and al- Jeb al- Ahmar, where the clashes between the same parties resulted in the death of 5 rebels as well as some soldiers and militiamen in the regime forces and allied militiamen.

A wedding party changes into obsequies after being stormed by Shohadaa al- Yarmouk Brigade
October 23, 2015 Comments Offon A wedding party changes into obsequies after being stormed by Shohadaa al- Yarmouk Brigade


Daraa Province:

Reliable sources informed SOHR that Shohadaa al- Yarmouk Brigade, which has pledged allegiance to IS, stormed a wedding party in the town of Nafe’ah in the western countryside of Daraa because of “the loud music”, where they opened fire indiscriminately killing 2 people at least while others wounded.



Violent clashes took place after midnight between Shohadaa al- Yarmouk Brigade against Jabhat al- Nusra, the rebel and Islamic factions around Sahem dam in the western countryside of Daraa.



2 bothers from the city of Inkhel and a man from Daraa al- Balad tortured to death inside the regime jails.

That is literally it. There is 0 analysis, 0 bias, 0 commentary.

It is just a highlighter of what is being reported. The translations could do with a bit of work.
 
The difference with Russian news sources is that what they report can be proven to be disingenuous or a bold faced lie. There's a few examples of it in the Ukraine thread. You can't put SOHR in the same pool as Russian news sources. Russian news sources are notorious for bending/twisting the truth or coming out with a bold faced lie. They are not the same.

First of all, what exactly are "Russian sources", according to you? Russia is a big country, there are thousands of newspapers, hundreds of various news channels and God knows how many internet bloggers, and there's a wide variety of various views they represent. Do you know many Russian media sources? Can you name any and can you explain how their coverage differs from one another? Do you speak Russian? Do you read news in Russian from these sources on a daily basis? No? Then maybe you shouldn't compare something you may know with something you don't have a slightest idea about.

Second, that Rami Abdul Rahman fellow has a clear bias and an agenda. He is pro-FSA and anti-Assad, so he cannot possibly be objective. Also, who is funding his project? What does he do for a living? RT may be a Russian propaganda channel, but where does this 'freedom fighter' from Coventry gets the money from? I'd imagine, he needs a sizable sum to cover his expenses, considering that his many sources have to be on the payroll, too. In the video I posted earlier in the thread the RT journalist went to interview him all the way to Astana where he stayed in a luxurious five star hotel. How can this guy afford all these long distance flights and nice accommodations is a mystery. Who knew that posting news from the country you haven't been to in many years from sources you don't have to reveal makes such a nice living.
 
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Of course civilian casualties will happen in war, especially asymmetric war. My point was that Russia started denying that there were any civilian casualties soon after the campaign started and characterized any such reports as "information attacks" on the Russian state to discredit those and future claims of civilian casualties. In the same press release, he said they were coordinating with the US on strikes, which was a blatant lie. It's pure theater.

MOSCOW — Russia and the United States signed an agreement on Tuesday that regulates all aircraft and drone flights over Syria, the defense departments of both countries announced.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/21/w...-to-regulate-all-flights-over-syria.html?_r=0
 
The press release is from early October and said that they were coordinating intelligence for strikes. Not the new agreement.

They could have coordinated it unofficially, no? Just because they have announced it now doesn't mean there weren't any contacts between the two sides much earlier, in fact, I'm sure there were, since they were both eager to avoid possible complications.
 
To the first bolded bit - when I said it can be corroborated in my earlier post, I meant, it can be corroborated by non-SOHR cited sources i.e. independent of the SOHR. And tbh - he does report on all aspects of the civil war. Honestly, you should really go onto the site and see for yourself. The articles are like small 2-3 sentenced lines like the one I posted earlier. There's no opinion pieces on there. If you do see an opinion piece, it's a link to an outside source about the civil war.

The difference with Russian news sources is that what they report can be proven to be disingenuous or a bold faced lie. There's a few examples of it in the Ukraine thread. You can't put SOHR in the same pool as Russian news sources. Russian news sources are notorious for bending/twisting the truth or coming out with a bold faced lie. They are not the same.

To your question - if he was reporting things that are proven to be untrue, I'd agree with you. But as I said earlier, the incidents are also reported by non SOHR sources, and can be corroborated through different avenues of information that have no affiliation with SOHR. Furthermore, like I said previously, if the SOHR actively gave opinions on the information, and presented it in a biased or agenda driven way, I'd agree with you, but there's no evidence of the stories being presented in such a way.

Here's the news story from today:





That is literally it. There is 0 analysis, 0 bias, 0 commentary.

It is just a highlighter of what is being reported. The translations could do with a bit of work.


For the example stories you've quoted, that's exactly my point - not a single source, reliable quote or anything. Its a few obsecure sentences that can't in anyway be verified. Its pretty much no different to Iran's PressTV story template.

Here's another nonsensical example from the SOHR site, try and figure out what's wrong with it:

Homs province: today regime and Russian fighter jets had carried out 10 bombing raids around Homs around 5km North of the city of Talbisah. Residents say that the bombings started around 12pm and had destroyed four family buildings.

So far, the casualty count as been 12 confirmed deaths, including 7 children and 3 women. This is the third incident of Russian raids around the Homs countryside over the last week.
 
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For the example stories you've quoted, that's exactly my point - not a single source, reliable quote or anything. Its a few obsecure sentences that can't in anyway be verified. Its pretty much no different to Iran's PressTV story template.

Here's another nonsensical example from the SOHR site, try and figure out what's wrong with it:
What are you talking about? We already have a video footage that proves he (and the whole US propaganda machine) was deliberately lying about "a hospital being targeted" (in some unexpected turn of events I must say :lol: ), you should know by now that he's just wumming.

I wonder why...
Kremlin: "Didn't happen."



Much like I'm sure that didn't happen either.

They will probably deny it and launch a troll campaign to discredit the Syrian Observatory again.
suddenly aren't talking about it anymore... :lol:
 
I hope it's not a dig at the Syrian moderate rebel school system. Some of those pupils were clearly held back a few years, judging by their beards.
In the "Free Syria" they don't need schools anyway, they only need to teach the children how to cut heads and blow themselves up, like they're doing now in the "free parts" of Syria (and in Turkey too apparently).

The SOHR man should have just gone with the school version anyway (whether true or not). A hospital would make a better headline, but unfortunately for him, it turned out to be too late, because nobody thought of it when they were videotaping.
 
Syrian refugees in Germany fear undercover 'shabiha'
Hundreds of pro-Assad militiamen reporting to the Syrian regime believed to be mixing with asylum seekers.


In areas popular with the Arab community in Germany, Syrian refugees opposed to the Syrian regime have a growing concern.

Hundreds of militiamen supporting President Bashar al-Assad, are believed to be taking advantage of the refugee crisis to gain access to Europe - arriving among those fleeing war.

Activists and human rights lawyers say the Assad loyalists, also known as shabiha, go undercover and supply the Assad regime with intelligence.

In Germany, activists are collaborating on social media to identify members of the shabiha and Assad forces by recording online profiles and current locations.

But they say the alleged criminals are deleting their online identities as they are being discovered.

Jikrkhouin Mulla Ahmed, a Syrian activist in Berlin who says he was imprisoned and tortured by the shabiha in Syria, that when he sees people he is not sure about he follows them to where they live and report them to authorities.

"These people must be brought to justice for what they did," the told Al Jazeera. "This isn’t just about me, more than 200,000 people have been made prisoners ... Many, many people were killed by the shabiha."

Several human rights lawyers in Europe acknowledge the threats posed by the infiltration of alleged criminals among Syrian refugees. The Syrian opposition in exile says also says it is trying to help.

The UN's Refugee Convention addresses criminals seeking asylum and similar provisions exist under EU asylum law.

The UN's Refugee Convention stipulates that those for whom there are serious reasons for considering that they have committed war crimes or crimes against humanity, or serious non-political crimes, should not qualify for refugee status.
 
Activists and human rights lawyers say the Assad loyalists, also known as shabiha, go undercover and supply the Assad regime with intelligence.

What intelligence can they possibly gather as a refugee?

I'd be more worried about some jihadist radicals getting into the country with the purpose of blowing things up.
 
Apparently they've released a new video showing them executing an SAA soldier by rolling a tank over him. Alive.

Think this is their first video that I'll be avoiding.
 
The leader is this guy, Abu Muhammad al-Julani:

images


Haven't heard of the dead guy.

(Edit): According to some online he was a senior commander in the Aleppo area.