It would be one of the most expensive wars in history, at least in terms of firepower expended per timeframe.
Iran v US confrontation
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I can't and don't believe even Trump and his hawks would be stupid enough to start a land war with Iran with the goal of at least temporary occupation (if only for a planned quick regime change). If they do start something here, it's surely going to be limited to rocket strikes and bombing runs. That said, if their goal really is regime change, then that's not going to be accomplished from the air.
An occupation seems utterly impossible. Iran is four times as large as Iraq, and more than twice as populous.
An occupation seems utterly impossible. Iran is four times as large as Iraq, and more than twice as populous.
First part of the plan would definitely be try and bomb them into submission. Threaten invasion but hope you don't have to because that will get messy fast.
There are proxy forces they may try to use but I’m skeptical.
Yeah, I reckon as much. I don't give them much chance of succeeding without an invasion, though. If anything, seems like trying to bomb Iran into submission would only harden the regime's support internally.
I doubt there would be much of a conflict. Iran is more capable than other recent adversaries but the US would still make short work of them.
The worry is, as always, what happens when the army is defeated and all the various factions within the country fancy a bit of power. It will just be another endless war we all get dragged into, and at some point these increasing proxy fights with Russia and China are going to spill over into something real.
There is obviously no doubt that the US could and would crush Iran in a conventional war, but even so they'd probably take more losses than the American people would accept. And as you say, the occupation would be a nightmare.
Yeah and the only people who'll die are Iranians and Iraqis while Donny gets to act all tough and whip his base into a frenzy.
Isis needs a new home base.
Is someone seriously thinking the US will actually invade with boots on the ground ? Get real, at most this will be air strikes. Not that this won't be a complete catostrofeck geopolitically , of course.
They will need ground troops because Iran's best option will be to invade Iraq.
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That's short sighted.
Iran is a country with 10 cities with more than a million population, all spread out throughout the country, that doesn't take into account the dozens of cities and towns with over 100k pop. America could in theory go all Dresden on Iran but millions upon millions of collateral damage will not be good international PR nor will America get internal allies through that option.
Iran is an historically homogeneous society who take almost cult like pride in their culture and identity, they won't capitulate that easily, America might bomb them back to the stone age but what is that to a society that hero worships martyrs?
Why would it be the best option?
Because sitting around doing nothing while a superior air force bombs you into oblivion is a bad idea. If your enemy is ravaging your lands, you ravage theirs or those of their allies. The US might base some forces in Iraq and if not they will use bases in Saudi, whom Iran will have no problem going after. They will be happy to unleash hell on the region and (quite rightly) blame it on the US
Yes, the US will also use carrier groups and those can be expected to become targets as well (think of the USS Cole). Iran will suffer heavy losses but it won't be a walkover like it was vs Saddam's Iraq.
I’d be very surprised if any Western allies back Trump. He’s nuts, this is completely unwarranted plus they hate him far more than Americans hates him.
Yeah they’ll try and bring a halt to all traffic in the Gulf, turn it into a fiery lake of chaos and majorly feck with the world’s oil supplies and economies. UAE, Saudi, Bahrain and Kuwait could all be targeted (Qatar and Oman less likely to be).
John Bolton has wanted war with Iran for fecking years as have many Republicans. It's the perfect distraction for Trump AND peace is bad news for weapons contractors, manufacturers and those heavily invested in sending security or helping rebuild war torn countries.
It's all about the Benjamin's (and distraction)
It's all about the Benjamin's (and distraction)
These chicken hawk feckers should be made to put their own kids on the frontline as they wage their atrocities across the Middle East.
I’m sure Don jr likes a bit of shooting/trophy hunting so send the prick into Iran fully loaded up and see how many photos he takes.
I’m sure Don jr likes a bit of shooting/trophy hunting so send the prick into Iran fully loaded up and see how many photos he takes.
they've been threatening Iran for as long as I can remember
The moment they attack Iraq they will be seen as the aggressors, and a coalition will be formed against them . Their best shot is to be the victims , without attacking any neighbouring countries , that haven't already attacked them.
Trump must think going to war with Iran is a way to gain popularity. How wrong he will be.
Not if the US bases any forces in Iraq or uses Iraqi airspace. Any country that works with the US will be fair game.
Also, they've already been painted as the aggressors for attacking those ships.
There’s no chance the Iraqi government would allow the US to mount an offence on Iran from their territory. There’d be an immediate coup by the powerful militias, all who are deathly loyal to Iran.
Jesus christ I work and live in the UAE.. is this shit real?
What's your point
Dear god, it will be quantifiably more difficult than Iraq, far less flat areas over which to just speed tanks to assume territory, far more hilly & mountainous terrain that would help their army in its prolonged insurgency.
I'll take your word for it mate. At least for now.
Can't imagine how the regular Iranian people feel now... Maybe being invaded cause of a mad man is in power...
We’d be invading a massive, less hospitable version of Switzerland. It’s nuts.
One of the wild cards that has been verified to exist in the Iranian armory is the conventional Sunburn missile, a massive improvement versus the Exocet which could turn the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, & the Gulf of Oman into shooting galleries, limiting our ability to insert troops & weaponry en masse into the theater & making us rely more on airborne insertions of both. Supplying by air can be faster, but limited in tonnage / personnel delivered per plane.
If any of those Sunburns are nuclear tipped (which some may very well be), then Iran has a true aircraft carrier killer in its arsenal. Such missiles will able to knock out carrier groups instantaneously. Such a scenario would quite likely be endgame for the Iranians, so they would be more than happy to deploy the conventional SS-N-20s onto disposable small boat platforms & unleash a hell never seen before onto our carrier groups. Not being able to effectively force project from those three waterways will reduce our overall ability to wage war in Iran.
Saddam was basically a secularist who understood not to utilize WMDS. No telling what the Iranians will do in that regard.
No it makes sense actually. Saddam was anti Iran, but majority of both populations are Shia and can't see them fighting each other.
Not to mention that we don’t need a land base to kick the door in. The US Navy + USMC can land a Marine Expeditionary Force the size of a large Army division pretty much anywhere via sea and land.
Edit: which would set up the type of possible naval missile battle @calodo2003 is talking about
I reckon the casualties would be pretty heavy in that scenario. It's going to be a lot of missiles and bombs but that will only succeed in killing people who don't deserve to die.
I don't want to derail the thread but come on its rather odd that when Trump is on the brink of possible starting a war with Iran, your blaming the most anti war voters. Not to mentioned the alternative candidate you wished they voted for is Hilary Clinton, who has a long history of war(Libya has actual slavery now).
But yeah anyway Trump is bad man.
Yeah it wouldn’t be pretty. A few of my former players and wrestlers could be on the front line of it too. I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to that.
Awesome, a year into joining the Marines, my idiot brother could possibly be deployed to Iran.
Where’s he stationed currently?
VA. Gets posted to an Infantry battalion in a year.