Do you really think we put Rice in that DM position and it clicks, just like that? The truth is we've been really, really bad playing this setup this season. Don't think it's just Rice.
In reality, its because both Arsenal and Man City play very differently to us. The role of their inverting full backs and the way their centre backs step out of defence creates a crowded central midfield area. It leaves them vulnerable to attacks down the flanks. However, they keep the ball so well, and use the tactical foul so effectively, that they're rarely caught out.
Ten Hag seemed to be trying to move in this direction early on this season but the team either couldn't or wouldn't adapt. In that first game against Wolves we tried to squeeze up the pitch and had Shaw inverting. However, Wolves beat our high press constantly and Nunes exposed our lack of mobility in midfield and ability to keep the ball.
We're kind of a halfway house between pre-Van Dijk Liverpool and pre-last season Arsenal. We are playing in a way that generates a high number of chances but is defensively unsound. The coach needs to decide which path he's going to take. If we're going to go more in the Liverpool direction, we need more pace and power in midfield and more commitment to using the fullbacks as attacking outlets. If we're going to go back to a more Ajax like way, then we need to get the timing of our press right and our wide forwards need to become vastly more productive and able to win 1v1 duels without overlapping full backs.
Bingo. Although I'd say Shaw and Dalot are the least of our problems to play this formation. Much bigger problem is that our wingers are not so good at playing triangles with fullbacks and finding fullbacks with a pass. In fact our best player last season doesn't seem to have that in his locker.
It's nothing to do with the holding midfielder or players around. Odegaard and Bruno are the main differences. The difference between Bruno and Odegaard are night and day.
Mount and a good holding midfielder can work provided we try to find our own Odegaard. Problem is there aren't many Odegaards available in world football.
If we're bringing that to "personnel" level, I'd say this is the closest to an explanation. IMO Casemiro could do a job in this Arsenal side, Mount could do a job in this Arsenal side (if he playerd with Odegaard), but as far as Bruno is concerned, I don't see him in this setup. He is simply too direct, too attacking oriented and weak in possession.
Odegaard is more of a midfielder in terms of control, possession focus while Bruno is more chance creation focus.
Their wingers are far better defensively and actual wingers, while ours are much closer to forwards than wingers.
They also didn't play Odegaard and Havertz together in big games. It's jorginho next to rice, with just Odegaard in that 3. Havertz hasn't been very good and they've quickly realized it's not that balanced with him in there.
As far as DM goes, Rice covers a lot more ground than our DMs. Casemiro is quality at his best, last season he was class. But every player has their differences and needs different set ups to work together and get their best. Casemiro needs someone next to him to help share the load of covering for our attackers who have shit work rate, also due to his age and not being as mobile.
Finally, coaching system. Our system doesn't enable that 4-3-3 as well, clearly. We haven't found that balance. I'm sure Pep and Arteta could get that system better than what we've seen so far. That's not to say Ten Hag can't also be a top coach, but he hasn't shown he can implement that balance to be a dominant team even while chopping and changing players around like that.
This.
In my opinion, this system is fundamentally flawed becuase:
- we don't have a single LW who is good in possession and defensively, they are both wide forwards; there are question marks if we have any right winger at all but this is a bigger problem than just this setup
- our #10s are too far forward and don't participate in build up play - that goes especially for Mount (and now ETH darling McTominay)
- our pressing is shit - since it's high risk/high reward strategy, once you get through our first pressing wave, it's highway to our goal
- Bruno is just not suited to play this sophisticated football IMO, he's a pure attacking #10 with a great eye for a goal/final pass; it's a travesty to force him into more restricted role; if ETH has not realised that by now, he never will
This might be a bit controversial but we have some players who are suited to this system:
- fullbacks (Shaw/Dalot)*
- DM (Casemiro, if he isn't done that is, and Mainoo looks like a good fit)
- Mount...
* side note: considering our huge problems with Rashford/Sancho/Antony misfiring or whatever, I actually think it's worth trying out a system where our fullbacks can get more involved.
ETH mistake IMO is that he tried to move from more of a traditional setup to this modern "two #10s" too quickly, and we completely lost it. What he should've done is replace Eriksen with someone who can bring energy, defensive cover and drive in midfield - once we stabilize, only then implement more fancy tactical methods like pushing 10s high, fullbacks tucking in, CBs stepping into midfield etc. This is a trait of a great coach, not going from A to Z over one summer.