ti vu
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- Jun 16, 2015
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I've done the math, although with pen and paper only so my math may be in error.
Had we brought in Kane on January 1 and won every PL match since January 1 we it appears would be tied with Arsenal for first place on 72 points. Arsenal would be on 72 and not 75 as they would have dropped three points had we beaten them on the night they in fact beat us.
However, it is quite a leap of faith to believe that we would have picked up three points in every single PL match since January 1. For example, Liverpool disemboweled us 7-0...would the addition of Harry Kane turned that catastrophe into a win? Maybe, but probably not.
I am never going to argue that Wout Weghorst is as equally proficient a goal scorer as Harry Kane. As I wrote before, that would be madness. Harry is a world class striker and Wout, at the risk of being overly disrespectful, may not even be Championship quality as a striker. But I'm looking at the league table right now and I don't see how the addition of Kane alone would have erased the 16 point gap between us and Arsenal as things stand right now. We can only speculate the hypothetical and if someone wants to argue that we would have gone unbeaten and untied with Kane then I can't prove that that would have been impossible, but it does seem highly unlikely. What seems more likely, admittedly an unprovable assertion, is that we would have won the two games we drew (+ 4 point there), we may have drawn Arsenal (so add 1 point for United and drop 2 points for Arsenal) and that we would have still have been beaten by Liverpool and Newcastle.
If my math skills hold up, we'd therefore be on 64 points instead of 59 and Arsenal would be on 73 points instead of 75...as things stand as of this moment, hours before the City/Arsenal match.
In other words, we'd still be in the top four but out of the running for the PL trophy. My original statement still stands, unless of course it is somehow conceivable that United would never drop a single point again should we have brought in Kane on January 1. I do not believe, however, that it is any way realistic to believe that had United brought in United in January that we would never drop a single point again for the rest of the season. Or next season.
Are you aware Arsenal played 2 more game? Use City who had played same amount of game as benchmark instead? City is on 70 right now while we're 11 point behind at 59. Extra 8 points and we're at 67, 3 point behind City. Both with 2 games in hand over Arsenal.
Crystal Palace away, Leeds home, Southampton home? The game we had dropped point since Weghorst joined: Arsenal, Crystal Palace away, Leeds home, Southampton home, Liverpool away, Newcastle away. A couple draw in place of defeats, and turning those winnable draw into victories easily got us 8+ points.
You seemed to ignore what I wrote about how a player and goal lead can affect the team performance and end outcome. You think we would still lose to Newcastle by unchallenging them for 60 minutes, before taking Weghorst off at after went down 0-1?
Liverpool got lucky to be 1-0 up after half time, and we didn't play well having to shoehorn Weghorst, moving players around and limit our own tactic.
You seemed to be dead set on the notion that we would still lose to Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool regardless of how good an upgrade a top class CF would have over Weghorst. I repeat it's not just addition a few goals. It affects how the game is play, and ultimate the outcome.
We never know for certain but it's more than reasonable enough to see a top class PL player like Kane would likely change the multiple result, enough to make us a title challenge from our current position.
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