I think you're underrating Guerreiro quite a bit there.
What I mean by "no idea" is that they've had a huge summer transfer wise now so it stands to reason that things will be very different from last season.
Harry Kane | Bayern Munich player
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I think you're underrating Guerreiro quite a bit there.
What I mean by "no idea" is that they've had a huge summer transfer wise now so it stands to reason that things will be very different from last season.
I've already said that I think Bayern being 2nd fave is pretty ridiculous but Utd being ahead of Barcelona is also ridiculous imo. Wouldn't read much into those odds. Odds are determined by the people placing bets anyway. I'm sure plenty of people decided Bayern are a big team, Kane's a top striker, Kane's probably going to go to Bayern (the only major team he was linked with for months), Bayern might have a good chance at winning the CL. Nothing more complex than that. I doubt the bookies' odds last season had either Milan team anywhere near the faves despite them both reaching the semis and Inter outplaying City for large parts of the final.
Fair play to Levy.
Many people laughed at him.
Didn’t sell to City couple years back & ended up selling him abroad to Munich for similar prices.
Many people laughed at him.
Didn’t sell to City couple years back & ended up selling him abroad to Munich for similar prices.
I think it's embarrassing that Shearer's record is even a thing. We have a footballing history that goes back so far, yet so many of our records started in 1992. People should talk about top flight goal records, not Premier League records. All those legendary names brushed aside, whereas in other leagues legends and modern greats co-exist in the charts and records. At least we don't do it with clubs - say what you want about Liverpool, no-one should consider them a one-title club.
And maybe, maybe, a Premier League goalscoring record is something to look back fondly on in years to come - until it's broken - but I'd trade that in a heartbeat for those big European nights. Going to the Bernebeau with Bayern in a big knockout match is going to feel a million times better than any goalscoring record.
And maybe, maybe, a Premier League goalscoring record is something to look back fondly on in years to come - until it's broken - but I'd trade that in a heartbeat for those big European nights. Going to the Bernebeau with Bayern in a big knockout match is going to feel a million times better than any goalscoring record.
Are people in here really arguing that Bayern aren’t an elite club?
Fair play to him, never thought he’d leave Spurs. Great career move for him and he’ll win trophies.
Bayern's problems last season stemmed from a couple of concentrated issues, rather than widespread weaknesses. They resolved the tension around their coach by sacking him, they plugged the biggest hole in their squad with Harry Kane, they signed a useful role player in Laimer for their other weak spot and they strengthened their central defense with Kim for good measure. The mid-season world cup also seemed to have a higher impact on them than it did on others.
Because of that last season's league table is completely irrelevant. Things can of course always go wrong and there's still a question mark at their GK position, but the expectation has to be that they are around top 3 in Europe - City being the only club that can claim for certain to have a better team.
Because of that last season's league table is completely irrelevant. Things can of course always go wrong and there's still a question mark at their GK position, but the expectation has to be that they are around top 3 in Europe - City being the only club that can claim for certain to have a better team.
Ok you can stretch Guerreiro to very good if you want, he did have a very strong season, but if you asked the majority of football fans if Guerreiro is world class or one of the best players in the world in his position/s I doubt too many would say yes (maybe in Germany they would but most Germans I know overrate the standard of the BL anyway)
How are arsenal an elite team? What have they won? How are utd an elite team? What have we won?
Bayern are one of the giants of european football, with a history most clubs could only dream of having. They came off a bad season for them last season by their standards but they will be in the last 8 or last 4 of the CL
Yep some folk really are so myopic and havent got a clue.
Someone will break the record and then who will remember Shearer? Records are there to be broken, trophies and medals last forever.
Well I get it to some posters once a club is elite, doesn't matter if they're in transition they'll always be seen as elite. Even when the latest evidence proof to be otherwise. They're good yes I didn't say they're bad. But not elite. They can be if they manage to get back to previous levels next season.
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Agreed, very disrespectful to jimmy greaves, but thats the PL for you.
Really good move for him and hopefully help them bridge the gap with City in the CL as I could see them winning it again comfortably unless Real and Bayern didn’t improve.
World class is such a weird phrase tbf. I think he improves them a lot both rotating with Davies and as a midfield option. Reckon he will be a chance creating monster for Kane.
Bayern an elite team... you laugh at Arsenal being called an elite team but yet if you put Arsenal to Bundesliga last season they would have torn that league apart.Arsenal an elite teamBased on one season where they outperformed their metrics, bombed out of every competition, and then crumbled in the league. Only on the Caf, folks.
I'm just being realistic. Also keep in mind. We're talking about the CURRENT state of Bayern, not what they can potentially be after next season when all their players have settled in and Tuchel has mold the team into his ideals. Just to avoid confusion.
They've lost on defense though, especially if Pavard also leaves without a replacement. I already thought they were weak in numbers at CB and currently have 4 realistic options, but Pavard being one of them who also is a RB option. Would have been better had they signed Kim without losing Lucas.
Also after selling Mane I think they're short on the wing, or they plan to play Musiala there more instead of down the middle.
Their transition season saw them win their league (just, fair enough) and get to the CL QFs, only being knocked out by the eventual winners. To say they are not an elite club is embarrassing.
Then you get embarrassed easily. Look at bundesliga last season and tell me that's an elite team. Inter got to CL final and could have won it if Lukaka didn't miss sitters, are they elite? I mean, if we're using CL as a metrics we might as well see what happened in CL last season. To me the league is a better indicator of the state of the club as a whole (more games, consistency and average levels than one offs) and Bayern weren't really up to speed under their new manager. Hence the signings this window, they even spent so much money on Kane which is untypical of them for a single signing, I mean even they themselves know they have a place to get back to. But fair enough, everyone has opinion.
The bookmakers odds largely reflect the market. If there was a prevailing belief that it was as likely that Man City would win the Premiership as Bayern winning the Bundesliga, then the odds would reflect that because punters would see the Man City odds, think that they are good value and then bet on City, then the odds would become less favourable on City as the bookies adjust accordingly and they would end up on the same odds as Bayern are.
Copy-pasting my standard explanation whenever this comes up, because I think football gamblers deserve to know what they're into and the vast majority don't.
This isn't how betting works. But don't worry: almost everyone goes through a phase of believing that bookies win by being better at predicting events than the punters. Hell, most people never get out of that phase -- even the most frequent football gamblers I know in real life don't really understand how gambling works. Expert opinion and predictive modelling have nothing to do with the odds. In fact, those things don't matter at all on the bookmakers' side[1]. Bookies have no special insight into anything because they don't predict anything: the prices are set by supply and demand. The more people bet on an outcome, the lower they set the price for that outcome, and vice-versa. It renders odds nothing more than a giant popularity contest.
You could argue that there's a sort of crowdsourced wisdom going on in the results of that process. But then imagine the average punter: he's far from an expert gambler or an expert on the subject on which he's betting. This all leads to prices that very poorly reflect the actual probabilities of the outcomes. Any genuine expertise is drowned out by the sheer volume of casuals, weekend warriors, random-chancers, and so on. (Incidentally, understanding this fact is how "professional" gamblers and true expert analysts play the game: they don't bet on the events they think will occur; they bet solely on the events that they think are significantly more likely to occur than their current price suggests.)
As well as the supply and demand shit, there's a load of money-grubbing maths involved, all of which is now done programmatically by computers, They put a bunch of variables into a formula, including the odds and the amount of money on each outcome, and their proprietary ML-driven algorithms spit out odds recommendations that ensure they make money no matter what. It's called an overround and it's how the house almost always wins[2] (it's similar to the zero on a standard roulette table: they offer you odds of 1:36 when the actual odds are 1:37, slowly resulting in inevitable losses for everyone over time). Sneaky house edges are why I have no interest in gambling.
[1] They may use predictive models up to a point, to try to refine their overround priorities, train their AI models, and generally get more accurate internal info (e.g. how to set initial prices), but a bettor is never going head to head with the bookies' predictions.
[2] I say "almost" because unlike a roulette table, real world events, the cumulative patterns of wildly different bettors, and the algorithmic mathematics involved are too complex to guarantee that they make money, even with a massive overround. When the system fails, you get those glorious stories of bookies losing stacks. Unfortunately, as I'm sure most gamblers know, the cnuts aren't even legally obliged to pay out -- at least not in the UK.
Saying that they can't be trusted because people aren't rational with their money....c'mon man. People bet on the outcomes that they think will yield them the highest return. If the best player in each 11 positions in the world suddenly cancelled their contracts and signed for Frankfurt, do you think that they'd still be 100/1? Or do you think that a combination of bookies own algorithms and a surge of betting from the rational punters would suddenly make them unbackable?
If the odds aren't a good reflection of reality, then we'd all be making a killing from gambling. Simple as.
Best of luck to him. If United don’t win the CL then I hope Bayern do.
Biggest beer festival…that’s all you have to sell ?Aye, the city with the World’s biggest beer festival has no idea of fun
I’m been to Munich a few times, and Berlin, and always had shit loads of fun, so maybe you should be looking at yourself if you haven’t rather than the Germans.
It’s really nice, but it’s just a festival. It’s not the same to go as a tourist their to drink some beers and live their all year.
I told that I went in Germany few times and enjoyed it. But I’ll much rather live in Spain or Italy. The weather, the food and the way of life is much better to me.
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Dortmund blew it on the last day last season, Man City 5 of last 6 season champs, will win again this season, why bother sign for them? A lot of ignorant disrespect for Bayern, a great club that has an incredible history and real chance in the CL too.
You are right. But the poster is arguing that Munich is so much fun. I find it ridiculous after I have been there as well as in Spain or Italy.
I think one of the reasons Kane might enjoy it there is that it has a lot of similarities with England and he comes across as a real homebody.
How does Munich compare to Berlin. Because I really wasn’t impressed with Berlin in the slightest!
Hernandez was injured so often he could be the best defender in the world and Kim would still be an upgrade (assuming he can maintain his level), just based on availability.
If Pavard leaves he will probably bring in €30m, they can buy someone else with that money and they still have Mazraoui.
Mane wasn't much of a loss in terms of quality. Gnabry, Sane and Coman aren't elite attackers, but that's still three strong players for two positions, with Musiala being able to help out, too. They can also try something funky, like some asymmetrical formation with Davies taking over the wing or maybe Tel will get minutes there - if he develops well. Guerreiro can play there, too, though considering his lack of athleticism probably not as a preferred option.
It's not an all-star team, but it's high quality and looks quite cohesive to me. And most other clubs also have their issues, too. Real for example currently have Joselu as their ranking no9.
I swear some people on here are something else haha
Not everyone sees elite based on brands. Your club last season was miles away than what they're used to. That's why it's not elite but it can always change. To say Bayern had an elite squad last season is an insult to the previous squads before it.
We beat Barcelona and were comfortably the better team over 2 legs just a few months ago, of course we should be ahead of them in terms of favourites
Would be the same for the majority, including myself. And no, Munich has a lot more than a fecking beer festival as you’d know if you’ve been, it’s a beautiful and fun city.
Thing is, Kane wasn’t choosing between Italy, Spain or fecking Australia. He was choosing to be in England or Bavaria, and the point here is that Munich’s a lovely place to live, no-one is arguing it’s better than say Florence so I’ve no idea what point you’re trying to make
About time he left Spurs, he fecked up with his last renewal and I’m sure he regrets it deeply. All the best to him. Munich’s a great city and Germans are awesome.
You may not like it but records in the premier league matter and gets mentioned all the time not just by the media and pundits but by everyone. Inception of the premier league was significant because that’s where it all started to grow and that’s what put the PL became on the world map and it became a global juggernaut and that’s why the records in the PL era matter. I thought you of all the people would be grateful for that as your little wee club only became relevant in the premier league era.
You can quote me on this but Harry Kane will score a goal for Bayern Munich this season.
Maybe it only became relevant to you in the premier league era but there are still some of us who know football started before that.
They spent €80m on a CB 4 years ago.
Elite performance:
Losers in need of a big rebuild:
Losers in need of a big rebuild:
You keep on repeating that to yourself but there’s a reason how many pl trophies, how many pl goals, the best overseas player, the best striker, the best goalkeeper etc all these discussions take place on a daily basis even on this forum because the records in the premier league are significant.
None was 30 years old. Bayern usually signs players that have resale value. They sold Lewa for €45m.
He has guaranteed himself trophies. While most of us may say the Bundesliga is pointless, he may not see it like that. If he spends 4 years with Bayern he will likely win 4 league titles and a couple of cups. He will also be in with a shout of winning the Champions League in that period. I admit the move might seem unambitious, which is strange really considering it is Bayern Munich he is joining and not some lesser club.