I actually think it's really difficult to predict which premier league clubs are going to be consistently competing for trophies / in the champions league over the next five years. I guess City would be expected to be there or thereabouts every year, but who else, Man Utd, Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham? He wanted to go to City a couple of year ago, but since then they have bought Haaland and Alverez, so unlikely to sign Kane any time soon unless Haaland leaves. Could he do the unthinkable and go to Arsenal? Could they even afford him? Chelsea and Newcastle could both afford him, and Chelsea need a striker, whilst Newcastle will want to make a statement. I would like to think we are now going to start competing for trophies every year, but for a player considering whether to join, we haven't won much in the past ten years. A strong showing for the rest of this season may help convince Kane that we will win trophies in the near future.
Oh, if Kane is thinking of leaving then Champion's League football and higher potential to win trophies are probably a must IMO. A lot can happen between now and the end of the season. Arsenal could look like an option, but as silly as it could sound, I don't think Kane would choose them either way. Maybe I'm being too romantic in football terms, but I think he'd want to go somewhere where the sensible Spurs fans can see why he left and not be too bitter about him going to a club seen as a derby match. I think Man Utd is the only real option where he can do that, as long as we go close to winning silverware this season and finish in the top 4 (Arsenal have also invested in Jesus for his position and got Nketiah to sign right? I think they probably wouldn't be able to do the deal even if they won the title, but I could be way off on that). Chelsea is a similar story to Arsenal but unless they turn it around massively in the next six months it's hard to see why he'd go there, other than probably the highest base wages he can get? Maybe Newcastle would offer even more though?
As for Newcastle, while a very realistic option, I think they are currently overachieving from where they expected to be and might have to temper expectations. I thought anyone signing for Newcastle would be buying into a 3-4 year project to become a title challenger / consistent Champion's League club and win trophies. Maybe they can sustain this and go right into challenging for that next season (or even now if they spend in this window...). I don't think it's right for Kane while it's a bit of an unknown, but if they manage to stay in the top 4 and have won the League Cup for example, he might feel like it's the right choice. I just feel like if he was moving to a team, he'd want to be assured that they will be able to challenge almost right away. Man Utd of course have work to do if we are going to be able to offer that, but if we were to win a trophy or go close, and finish 2nd/3rd/4th then there's a chance. Also, if the rumours are true about Ronaldo's contract, he could come into Newcastle if they finish top 4 and I think that would rule out any Summer move for Kane. Lots of ifs and buts etc.
I believe we can rule out City & Liverpool, as they have invested in forwards heavily with players such as Haaland, Alvarez, Grealish, Nunez, Gakpo and even Firmino looking at a contract extension etc. Would be surprised if either of those clubs tried for Kane now, whereas I previously thought both would be fighting for his signature at £120-150m.
Up until recently I always thought Kane & Conte would both sign new deals and Spurs would show some ambition in the next windows. But right now, I feel very differently from the outside looking in. It looks toxic at Spurs. I think both could want out unless the board can do some magic and Conte can guide them to 4th place. I really think it looks unlikely.