My opinion for a long time has been that the most likely outcome of his transfer situation is that he stays at Spurs.
He was certainly keen on the City transfer, though since that has since fallen through, it’s tough to say what he might want. As you said, regarding his family and such, staying in England does make the most sense, albeit if he comes to United there would be some degree of uprooting, though a lesser one. And of course the PL record. If it’s trophies that he is after, with City off the table Real are arguably the best other club that he could go to. They are always in with a chance of La Liga and the CL.
So who really knows what he will choose to do, but I don’t think there’s any clear answer or assumptions that we can make.