A couple of thoughts:
(a) Why do the Glazers' own Manchester United?
I want to touch upon this, because there is a common misconception that the Glazers' own Manchester United to take dividend from the team.
This is not true. The dividend paid to the Manchester United shareholders is just 1.39 percent of a market cap of like 2.1 bn USD. I.e., if the true value of the team is 4 bn USD, you get 0.7% dividend and if its 8 bn USD the dividend is just 0.35%. I.e. the dividend yield is crap.
As a fact, if the Glazer's just wanted to milk an investment, receive dividend -- they could easily by tomorrow increase their returns with several hundred percents -- if they sold their stake in Manchester United and invested in say a handful of global dividend stocks.
However, the Glazer's investment in Manchester United -- has been OK, certainly not good, extremely far from great, but also not terrible. There is this notion that Malcom Glazer bought the club for free through a leveraged buy-out, put the club in debt, and have milked it since. That is nonsense. Malcom Glazer could obtain financing to buy this team because he was credit worthy. The club had cash flow to pay debt, but he could just as well have used that money to pay much higher dividend and pay of the loan himself, the leveraged buy-out thing is construed for tax reasons.
An investment in Manchester United in 2005 is not on the same planet as an investment in new tech would have been at that point. Its not even as good as some kind of diversified investment strategy in 2005 would have been. But it is of course better than some alternatives.
Ultimately, the Glazer's bought and owns Manchester United because they have seen growth potential. The 1 bn USD the Glazer's paid for Manchester United, is nothing. The 8 bn Manchester United is worth today, its nothing. The Company Chipotle Mexican Grill is worth 38 bn USD. Some car company that might have sold 1000 cars ever is worth 24 bn USD (Rivian). Pintrest, 16 bn. Compared to other US companies, there are 630 companies worth more than Manchester United if assigned a 8 bn USD price tag.
(b) Will the Glazers' sell?
Why are the Glazer's out there trying to create a Super League? They sit there with a company with a brand that is like one of the strongest in the world depending a bit on how you look at it -- that isn't worth that much. That doesn't really generate a ton of money. They are looking to change that, but it is not going to happen. We all know it. Revenue will grow with a steady rate. But like lets say you want to 10x the revenues produced by this club -- it cannot be done. Its a fantasy. Today. 10 years from now? 20 years from now? Who knows, the world is ever changing and as long as you own a tremendously strong brand -- there will be opportunities. But right now its not a money machine that warrants any special valuation.
We can of course only speculate, but it is the logical thing to do for the Glazers, to sell this club. Manchester United is today one of the biggest football clubs in the world. The reason for this is the fact that the Club for a really long time was among the best if not the best clubs in the world.
I am 41 y/o, not living in the UK. Of my generation, many are Man Utd fans. My eldest son is 14 and played football. Of his friends, he is the only one who is a fan of Man Utd. You got mostly City fans, Liverpool fans and so forth. People are fair weather characters. Those teams are the fun teams to play with in Fifa.
At the current pace -- or like "realistically" -- we are not winning anything in the coming 10 years. City will be dominant for at least another few years. Newcastle is up and coming, if they make the CL it unlocks a ton of FFP money for them to spend instantly. Chelsea has bigger resources than us. Arsenal could have a strong 5-10 years. I am not in the side that think its 'impossible for us to win with the Glazers', we are not like West Ham, but it requires that ETH and the club does a much better job than our competitors and even so, that will take time.
So -- what is the result of this? Manchester United's position in the football world is diminishing. It is not a super fast process, but 10 to 20 years is anything but irrelevant. Hence, the Glazer's investment in Manchester United as from today will not develop as well as the average investment in a football club, since it will be a club on decline. Meanwhile, for others, the Club could have additional benefits simply resulting in that we ought to be in a situation were the Club is worth more to others than to the Glazers.
(c) Might we just not end up with a new owner that is just as bad -- or even worse -- than the Glazers?
No, I see no risk for this. We can basically divide the potential buyers' in this situation into four type of categories:
(a) Someone looking to buy an entity to slaughter it and sell of the parts.
(b) Someone looking to buy an entity and become a passive owner that just collect dividend.
(c) Someone looking to buy an entity to restructure it to make it more profitable.
(d) Someone looking to buy an entity to (mainly) gain advantages in another field.
The first cathegory, (a), is not really an option. Could someone buy us, sell the players, sell our future earnings for 25 years, sell the Premier League spot to Milton Keyes or whatever, take out all money of the company, and then sell the wreck, and make a profit from it? Doubt the math adds up, huge political risk. For the second category, (b), Manchester United is a crap option. The direct return isn't good enough. The third category, (c), is probably really hard to accomplish.
Nah, it would be a buyer in the category (d) -- or perfectly possible -- a middle step to someone fitting into category (d) (i.e. someone that thinks they can buy the club, hold it for a shorter time, then sell it to someone that fits (d) for profit, exactly what Elliot Advisors are doing). So the buyer could be a hedge fund looking to hold the club for 5-10 years, make it more attractive, find a strategical buyer. Or a buyer like the new Newcastle owner, looking for an investment that gives you "power". A media entity.
For all such buyer's, it makes zero sense to not stop the decline. I mean, its not even much money. You buy something for 10bn and invest 3-4 bn in it, its modest.
Then there is of course a 5th alternative, like Sir Radcliff. Its the buyer that doesn't make sense from a business point of view.