German Football 20/21

[do.ob]

I think in some ways Nagelsmann's football ideas are a bit vulnerable when playing against better sides, or just teams that are capable of beating Leipzig's press and can effectively hit them on the counter. One of the aspects he gets the most praise for, and always gets brought up by commentators etc, is that his teams are very adaptable and can change formation between and even during a match. There's obviously some truth to it, as Leipzig regularly switches between back four and back three formations depending on who they're playing. But I wonder if to some extent that's become a bit of a gimmick for Nagelsmann, like his signature move, and whether or not that could actually sometimes be detrimental to his sides.

Obviously that's hard to prove, and I'm not sure about that myself, but if you look at how he has his teams play it's clear he favours certain formations against some sides. For instance, while his record against Bayern isn't positive, he's only lost once against them since joining Leipzig and generally those matches have been pretty even. I think in most of those matches he's had Leipzig play more conservatively, and more classic back 4 formations or with players that let him switch to a back 4 easily during a match.
On the other hand he almost always loses against Dortmund while playing three at the back and pushing his team forward. If you didn't keep an eye on the scoreline, Leipzig has often looked dominant in those performances but end up losing anyway because they get exposed at the back as Dortmund has the quality to counter them. Even against United it looked similar. In the first leg they were toothless up front but still dominated the centre of the pitch easily, and ultimately got picked apart at the back. Again playing three at the back. The second leg they showed more of an attacking edge, but even then they looked fragile once United woke up. Similar story against a Liverpool side low on confidence, but strong on the counter.

There might not be a clear correlation between 3 vs 4 backline, because clearly Leipzig also do well with their favoured 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2, but against good opponents I get the impression they're less likely to collapse at the back when playing two CBs or fullbacks who are actually part of the backline. Overloading the midfield area works well against teams who don't have pacy players to exploit the space left behind, like Atletico last year in the Champions League, but dangerous when they do.
Or maybe against some good teams Nagelsmann becomes too ambitious regarding possession and pressing high up. Perhaps it can be put down to his teams' age or inexperience in the bigger matches. So far they haven't made the same mistakes against Bayern it seems, although then again those matches are some of the few where Leipzig doesn't have much of a choice but to somewhat cede possession.

It reminds a bit of problems Guardiola's teams often had, but with a weaker team. Dominating possession and overloading the centre is very effective against weaker teams, but against strong teams it can become vulnerable.

According to TM's database he played two games against Bayern with a back four (1 D - 1 L) and two games with a back three (2 D), his five big wins in the CL were all with back three setups as well. So I'm not sure formations really play such a big role in this.

Him being too ambitious in possession sounds like a reasonable explanation though, it sometimes seems like they don't threaten enough upfront while they eventually allow painful counter attacks or turnovers during build up. On the other hand one win in 16 matches is so absurdly low that it demands a big fatal flaw and we're talking about opponents like Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Gladbach in that stat, who aren't elite either.
I don't know.. on the flip side he barely lost any matches either (aside from Terzic), so maybe I'm reading too much into bad luck or finishing that prevented some of them from being wins.

Edit:
I just saw this chart on Twitter [goals/xG and goals against/xGa]


Maybe attacking quality really is just a huge factor.

 

[Blackwidow]

Maybe attacking quality really is just a huge factor.
[/QUOTE]

When it is about goals in dependence to xG I think that over- or underperforming has a lot to do with the setup of the formation. If you have more players in the box or more direct attackers (and that can be a box to box midfielder, too) you probably have a lower xG but a better efficiency. If you have more midfielders that can create but less firepower in the box you might have more xG but less efficiency.

It gets back to formation and tactics even then...

 

[do.ob]

When it is about goals in dependence to xG I think that over- or underperforming has a lot to do with the setup of the formation. If you have more players in the box or more direct attackers (and that can be a box to box midfielder, too) you probably have a lower xG but a better efficiency. If you have more midfielders that can create but less firepower in the box you might have more xG but less efficiency.

It gets back to formation and tactics even then...

I wouldn't be surprised if there are still certain approaches or situations out there that mess with the accuracy of xG models, but I wouldn't necessarily agree with your post. Like the on paper formation doesn't necessarily tell you how many players are going to be in the box. It all depends on how players interpret their roles (Angelino vs Halstenberg for example) or how the attacks are paced, the quicker you attack (or drag defenders around) the fewer defenders in the box, the fewer attackers needed to overwork the defense and create an opening that xG might not fully appreciate. Not to mention that xG models are supposed to account for opponent pressure regardless. Unless you have corroborating analysis I think it's much safer to assume that finishing is bad rather than that the model is fundamentally flawed. And if I look at Leipzig's squad I don't see a single natural goal scorer either.

 

[Boavista]

According to TM's database he played two games against Bayern with a back four (1 D - 1 L) and two games with a back three (2 D), his five big wins in the CL were all with back three setups as well. So I'm not sure formations really play such a big role in this.

Him being too ambitious in possession sounds like a reasonable explanation though, it sometimes seems like they don't threaten enough upfront while they eventually allow painful counter attacks or turnovers during build up. On the other hand one win in 16 matches is so absurdly low that it demands a big fatal flaw and we're talking about opponents like Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Gladbach in that stat, who aren't elite either.
I don't know.. on the flip side he barely lost any matches either (aside from Terzic), so maybe I'm reading too much into bad luck or finishing that prevented some of them from being wins.

Edit:
I just saw this chart on Twitter [goals/xG and goals against/xGa]


Maybe attacking quality really is just a huge factor.

Yeah I didn't mean to say it's all about the formation, but I do think the setup plays a big role and the formation can be an indicator of that. I had a look at TM's database before posting and it's not always easy to say if they're right with their formation, especially when it comes to Nagelsmann. Since a lot of Leipzig's players end up playing several roles, especially the defenders like Klostermann and Mukiele switching between CB and full back, or Angeliño being really more of a winger most of the time. Obviously even when the formation is the same from match to match, it doesn't necessarily mean the team is set up the same way.

For instance against Bayern I think it's fair to say they've generally played a lot more defensively regardless of formation. So even when they're set up in a back 3 or 5 it's more of a defensive move. In his first match against them with Leipzig according to TM he played Orban, Konate and Mukiele at CB, and Halstenberg and Klostermann as full backs. So that's basically all his potential centre backs (even his FBs play there often enough) on the field. Then in his 2nd match apparently he played a back 5 although Angeliño might have been more up front, or Adams in midfield. In any case I get the impression that against Bayern he's been a lot more cautious than against other teams, even when those other teams are also better than Leipzig on paper. This is a bit of reach, but perhaps being a Bayern fan he subconsciously put more importance on taking a more risk averse approach, to avoid being on the end of an embarrassing defeat. It's nothing to write home about but not many teams have managed to square up with Bayern in a direct matchup the way Leipzig under Nagelsmann have, even if that only resulted in draws and one 1-0 defeat.

Anyway, to some extent I think when Nagelsmann opts for a back three it's his more offensive approach than when he has Leipzig play a back four. Or in other words when he plays three CBs his team generally tries to dominate the midfield, which works well against some teams. Against Bayern it's a bit of an exception because they get pushed back more than against other teams.
By his big five CL wins I'm guessing you mean his wins against PSG, Man Utd, Atletico and two against Spurs? As impressive as those might have been, I'd say Atletico fielded a very slow team, so there wasn't as much threat of being hit on the counter. Spurs were weakened and played a fairly pedestrian midfield, and so did PSG. That second leg against Spurs also looked more like a 442 to me. And United got their game plan wrong too, by playing even more defensive than in the first leg. I obviously don't want to take anything away from Nagelsmann for those wins, but even then those games played out similarly to games that didn't go Leipzig's way.

Again I think I talked more about formation than I meant to. Some of the things that might seem like flaws now could really just be down to not having the best team. Maybe he's trying to prove too much with a team that ultimately lacks that extra bit of quality, not least when it comes to scoring goals which at the end of the day is what turns good ideas into success. I'd imagine his tactics will be more effective with players of Bayern's quality.

 

[do.ob]

Yeah I didn't mean to say it's all about the formation, but I do think the setup plays a big role and the formation can be an indicator of that. I had a look at TM's database before posting and it's not always easy to say if they're right with their formation, especially when it comes to Nagelsmann. Since a lot of Leipzig's players end up playing several roles, especially the defenders like Klostermann and Mukiele switching between CB and full back, or Angeliño being really more of a winger most of the time. Obviously even when the formation is the same from match to match, it doesn't necessarily mean the team is set up the same way.

For instance against Bayern I think it's fair to say they've generally played a lot more defensively regardless of formation. So even when they're set up in a back 3 or 5 it's more of a defensive move. In his first match against them with Leipzig according to TM he played Orban, Konate and Mukiele at CB, and Halstenberg and Klostermann as full backs. So that's basically all his potential centre backs (even his FBs play there often enough) on the field. Then in his 2nd match apparently he played a back 5 although Angeliño might have been more up front, or Adams in midfield. In any case I get the impression that against Bayern he's been a lot more cautious than against other teams, even when those other teams are also better than Leipzig on paper. This is a bit of reach, but perhaps being a Bayern fan he subconsciously put more importance on taking a more risk averse approach, to avoid being on the end of an embarrassing defeat. It's nothing to write home about but not many teams have managed to square up with Bayern in a direct matchup the way Leipzig under Nagelsmann have, even if that only resulted in draws and one 1-0 defeat.

Anyway, to some extent I think when Nagelsmann opts for a back three it's his more offensive approach than when he has Leipzig play a back four. Or in other words when he plays three CBs his team generally tries to dominate the midfield, which works well against some teams. Against Bayern it's a bit of an exception because they get pushed back more than against other teams.
By his big five CL wins I'm guessing you mean his wins against PSG, Man Utd, Atletico and two against Spurs? As impressive as those might have been, I'd say Atletico fielded a very slow team, so there wasn't as much threat of being hit on the counter. Spurs were weakened and played a fairly pedestrian midfield, and so did PSG. That second leg against Spurs also looked more like a 442 to me. And United got their game plan wrong too, by playing even more defensive than in the first leg. I obviously don't want to take anything away from Nagelsmann for those wins, but even then those games played out similarly to games that didn't go Leipzig's way.

Again I think I talked more about formation than I meant to. Some of the things that might seem like flaws now could really just be down to not having the best team. Maybe he's trying to prove too much with a team that ultimately lacks that extra bit of quality, not least when it comes to scoring goals which at the end of the day is what turns good ideas into success. I'd imagine his tactics will be more effective with players of Bayern's quality.

You make valid points and they probably are considerable factors in that statistic. I just got really caught up on the "1 win", you know .. thinking to myself that I can easily recall Hütter pocketing wins against Bayern and Dortmund, Rose multiple wins against Bayern, even Bosz with Leverkusen beat at the very least Dortmund and Bayern the once. Actually even Gidsol got wins against both Dortmund and Leipzig this year. I don't think it means anything for his upcoming Bayern job, if he dominates teams with them his side will know how to translate that into goals. But it's just such a freak stat if you look at it in isolation and you expect that even if only by mere chance he would have gotten a few more wins at least.

I feel like to some degree we need to see Marsch's work at Leipzig as a lens to judge Nagelsmann's work. Because for me it feels quite hard to say how much these players are actually capable of and how much is his system. Just like his Hoffenheim side produced some fairly expensive flops for other clubs.

 

[Blackwidow]

Probably did not get a starting guarantee...

 

[stefan92]

Probably did not get a starting guarantee...

Maybe he just said "feck off" to Löw

 

[do.ob]

His latest injury really took its toll on him. He looked completely spent for half the season. So given that he will turn 32 soon it may just have been a necessary decision after an intense season.

 

[Boavista]

You make valid points and they probably are considerable factors in that statistic. I just got really caught up on the "1 win", you know .. thinking to myself that I can easily recall Hütter pocketing wins against Bayern and Dortmund, Rose multiple wins against Bayern, even Bosz with Leverkusen beat at the very least Dortmund and Bayern the once. Actually even Gidsol got wins against both Dortmund and Leipzig this year. I don't think it means anything for his upcoming Bayern job, if he dominates teams with them his side will know how to translate that into goals. But it's just such a freak stat if you look at it in isolation and you expect that even if only by mere chance he would have gotten a few more wins at least.

I feel like to some degree we need to see Marsch's work at Leipzig as a lens to judge Nagelsmann's work. Because for me it feels quite hard to say how much these players are actually capable of and how much is his system. Just like his Hoffenheim side produced some fairly expensive flops for other clubs.

Yeah it's very puzzling to be honest. The more I think about it the less I believe what I said earlier. I mean I still think in some matches maybe he's too ambitious and wants to prove his coaching abilities by dominating teams that can deal with it. That could maybe explain his horrible record against Dortmund, but it doesn't explain his record against the other good sides in the league.

4 draws against Wolfsburg in the league, but 2 wins against them in the cup.. I feel like that points to something but I'm not sure what.

It's true, it's difficult to say how good the players are and how much is due to the system, but I actually think it's a very good squad. Just unbalanced because of the lack of a striker. I do rate Nagelsmann highly but I think people sometimes underestimate the quality of this Leipzig team a little, especially on here. It's full of talent, even if some are still a bit raw. Olmo, Sabitzer, and Angeliño are brilliant among other good players.
I think Marsch will do well with that team but from what I've seen of his Salzburg team he seems like just another gung ho pressing coach. Not expecting them to do better in the league next year, but maybe catch one or another team off guard in the Champions League.

 

[do.ob]

Yeah it's very puzzling to be honest. The more I think about it the less I believe what I said earlier. I mean I still think in some matches maybe he's too ambitious and wants to prove his coaching abilities by dominating teams that can deal with it. That could maybe explain his horrible record against Dortmund, but it doesn't explain his record against the other good sides in the league.

4 draws against Wolfsburg in the league, but 2 wins against them in the cup.. I feel like that points to something but I'm not sure what.

It's true, it's difficult to say how good the players are and how much is due to the system, but I actually think it's a very good squad. Just unbalanced because of the lack of a striker. I do rate Nagelsmann highly but I think people sometimes underestimate the quality of this Leipzig team a little, especially on here. It's full of talent, even if some are still a bit raw. Olmo, Sabitzer, and Angeliño are brilliant among other good players.
I think Marsch will do well with that team but from what I've seen of his Salzburg team he seems like just another gung ho pressing coach. Not expecting them to do better in the league next year, but maybe catch one or another team off guard in the Champions League.

I think their squad is loaded with a ton of players who are decent at a lot of things, but great at few or none.

Sabitzer for example? What does he really do outside of occasionally scoring the odd beautiful long shot? Angelino has a sweet left foot if you give him space, but he's neither a good defender, neither a good dribbler and nor is he pacy. He looks great, because Nagelsmann managed to create lots of space out wide for him. Olmo has something about him (as does Nkunku), but somehow he takes the most shots per 90 of the entire squad and ends up on 5 goals for the season and when I looked at his stats I realized he completes about 1 dribble per 90 as well. In general their entire squad seems to struggle with dribblings. Out of their regular starters Poulsen has the highest number of successful dribbles per 90. Goal scoring looks even more dire with Nkunku being their top scorer (excluding penalties) in the league on six goals.

Konate and Upamecano look like special talents, Gulacsi has perhaps been the second best keeper in the league over the past few years, but the further you go upfront the more players just feel generic and replacable.

They don't have the squad to win the league and I don't think they intend to build it with their strategy, getting a pressing merchant for a coach, shifting their strength more to cup competitions sounds like a reasonable approach.

 

[Zehner]

I think their squad is loaded with a ton of players who are decent at a lot of things, but great at few or none.

Sabitzer for example? What does he really do outside of occasionally scoring the odd beautiful long shot? Angelino has a sweet left foot if you give him space, but he's neither a good defender, neither a good dribbler and nor is he pacy. He looks great, because Nagelsmann managed to create lots of space out wide for him. Olmo has something about him (as does Nkunku), but somehow he takes the most shots per 90 of the entire squad and ends up on 5 goals for the season and when I looked at his stats I realized he completes about 1 dribble per 90 as well. In general their entire squad seems to struggle with dribblings. Out of their regular starters Poulsen has the highest number of successful dribbles per 90. Goal scoring looks even more dire with Nkunku being their top scorer (excluding penalties) in the league on six goals.

Konate and Upamecano look like special talents, Gulacsi has perhaps been the second best keeper in the league over the past few years, but the further you go upfront the more players just feel generic and replacable.

They don't have the squad to win the league and I don't think they intend to build it with their strategy, getting a pressing merchant for a coach, shifting their strength more to cup competitions sounds like a reasonable approach.

I agree with this and even add Upamecano to the list. He's spectacular in both ways: Sometimes outrageous tacklings or plays in in the build up but in almost every game he has at least one serious blunder. I'd prefer someone less spectacular but more reliant as an elite CB. The Leipzig team is obviously still quality but nowhere near Dortmund's for instance. Really curious how Nagelsmann will perform in Munich. He'll most likely be a huge success but here's hoping that his lack of experience will make it difficult for him. If that won't be the case, all my hope rests on Salihamidzic.

 

[do.ob]

I guess the question on everyone's mind is: will he take Fassnacht with him?

 

[Hansi Fick]

I guess the question on everyone's mind is: will he take Fassnacht with him?

Mainz and Köln fans would be confused whom to cheer for

 

[Blackwidow]

With Müller and Hummels!

... and with Kevin Volland!

 

[uamini]

So no Draxler, no Tah, no Wirtz..but I guess no huge surprises.

 

[hasanejaz88]

With Müller and Hummels!

... and with Kevin Volland!

Would rather have Tah there than Koch, didn't Koch have an injury ravaged season while Tah improved in the second half of the season?

Christian Gunter there! He reminds of Sebastian Boenisch from the past, just a physical beast but piss poor technically would rather have another RB option than Gunter, with whom we have 3 LBs now.

Glad to see Hummels and Muller there! Sad that Boateng isn't there but he hasn't been great this year. Rudiger has been amazing since Tuchel is there so with Hummels, Sule, Rudiger, Ginter and Koch we should be decent in that position.

EDIT: Woah woah woah, where is Ter Stegen? Is he injured?

 

[Blackwidow]

Would rather have Tah there than Koch, didn't Koch have an injury ravaged season while Tah improved in the second half of the season?

Christian Gunter there! He reminds of Sebastian Boenisch from the past, just a physical beast but piss poor technically would rather have another RB option than Gunter, with whom we have 3 LBs now.

Glad to see Hummels and Muller there! Sad that Boateng isn't there but he hasn't been great this year. Rudiger has been amazing since Tuchel is there so with Hummels, Sule, Rudiger, Ginter and Koch we should be decent in that position.

EDIT: Woah woah woah, where is Ter Stegen? Is he injured?

Ter Stegen - knee injury - surgery

No Brandt, no Dahoud, no Draxler

Wirtz probably will play U21 - would not get much time in the team either. Musiala is the better player to bring in as he has his familiar Bayern players next to him and his mentality reminds me of a young Thomas Müller. Does not try to make a show when coming in, works hard and does not show nerves.

 

[Swarm]

Would rather have Tah there than Koch, didn't Koch have an injury ravaged season while Tah improved in the second half of the season?

Christian Gunter there! He reminds of Sebastian Boenisch from the past, just a physical beast but piss poor technically would rather have another RB option than Gunter, with whom we have 3 LBs now.

Glad to see Hummels and Muller there! Sad that Boateng isn't there but he hasn't been great this year. Rudiger has been amazing since Tuchel is there so with Hummels, Sule, Rudiger, Ginter and Koch we should be decent in that position.

EDIT: Woah woah woah, where is Ter Stegen? Is he injured?

ter Stegen is undergoing surgery on his knee and will be missing the Euros.

Overall not exactly a very inspiring group of players if you ask me, will be interesting to see how they do.

 

[do.ob]

I think Dahoud and probably Baku should have been part of the squad. But otherwise not really a lot of controversial calls.

 

[Lagger]

Did we discuss that HSV didn't reach promotion AGAIN?

They should put that clock up again to show how long it's been since they were in the first league.

Also, who's looking forward to Holstein Kiel in the first league? Makes you wonder, how long until TSV Süderbrarup get promoted! I want this to happen so badly...

 

[Piratesoup]

Did we discuss that HSV didn't reach promotion AGAIN?

At this point I'll be really surprised once/if they get promoted. I keep having to remind myself that HSV even exists.

 

[hasanejaz88]

Ter Stegen - knee injury - surgery

No Brandt, no Dahoud, no Draxler

Wirtz probably will play U21 - would not get much time in the team either. Musiala is the better player to bring in as he has his familiar Bayern players next to him and his mentality reminds me of a young Thomas Müller. Does not try to make a show when coming in, works hard and does not show nerves.

Yea Dahoud can feel unlucky being left out because his performances in the second half were great. You can easily argue for him above someone like Neuhaus since Neuhaus didn't continue his good form really in the season while Dahoud improved. That being said CM/AM is a position we're absolutely stacked in and I have no issues with h the quality there.

Brandt and Draxler not being there are just the final exclamation marks on them not fulfilling their talent. It's strange that 20 years we lamented on German players not having technical ability but being mentally strong, now we have the opposite of players being technically strong but mentally poor.

I think Dahoud and probably Baku should have been part of the squad. But otherwise not really a lot of controversial calls.

Yea I was thinking of Baku when considering a RB, though he plays more as a RW and is only a RB in a 5 man defense.

And I just realized, no Reus I know he was poor for most of the season but he was brilliant towards the end and he's a great personality to have in the dressing room as well. Would've had him in place of Hofmann, who, while he had a good season and works off the ball, isn't nearly as good as Reus can be. Just read that Reus told Low that he didn't think he should join because he had to rest his body after the season. Sad how much injuries have hurt him over the years.

Also noticed that Hummels is in the promotional picture but Muller isn't, Low might not like him that much yet

 

[Blackwidow]

I think Dahoud and probably Baku should have been part of the squad. But otherwise not really a lot of controversial calls.

The quality in midfield is already very high... - and Baku will play the U21 or the Olympic tournament

 

[2ndTouch]

At this point I'll be really surprised once/if they get promoted. I keep having to remind myself that HSV even exists.

Yeah, time for them to reactivate the clock. It'll probably run just as long as the last time, fingers crossed.

 

[uamini]

Meanwhile Sami Khedira has announced his retirement.
What a career he's had...always underrated yet his resume includes winning the Champions League, the German, Spanish and Italian championship and becoming World Champion of course.
Unfortunately he just couldn't stay healthy during those final years anymore so it's probably a wise decision to call it quits at that point.
He spent his last few months at Hertha and even though he was injured most of the time he was a great influence in the locker room and provided some much-needed leadership. Got a feeling we might see him as some kind of sporting director somewhere in the near future.

 

[JuliaScalaR]

He certainly comes across as one of smarter guys in the football business.

 

[Tacitus56AD]

Nobody mentioning Musiala getting big tournament experience at the tender age of 18?I really like this,especially looking at all the position he covers.
Having a 26-man squad instead of a 23-one probably helped,but who thinks he would have been called up for the england-squad if he had chosen differently?

 

[Blackwidow]

Nobody mentioning Musiala getting big tournament experience at the tender age of 18?I really like this,especially looking at all the position he covers.
Having a 26-man squad instead of a 23-one probably helped,but who thinks he would have been called up for the england-squad if he had chosen differently?

Bambi, the nickname just matches, reminds me on Müller in that age. Not the way he plays but his eagerness to learn and a lot of his mentality. He does not try to make too much show when he comes in - in difference to e.g. Coutinho last or Costa this season, but comes in, works hard in both directions, integrates well with the others and converts his chances well. Even if he can play in midfield he can work on the wing and is a good dribbler, something we do not have in abundance in the squad. His advantage for sure is that he knows how to play with the Bayern players and that they really rate him.

 

[Lagger]

Meanwhile Sami Khedira has announced his retirement.
What a career he's had...always underrated yet his resume includes winning the Champions League, the German, Spanish and Italian championship and becoming World Champion of course.
Unfortunately he just couldn't stay healthy during those final years anymore so it's probably a wise decision to call it quits at that point.
He spent his last few months at Hertha and even though he was injured most of the time he was a great influence in the locker room and provided some much-needed leadership. Got a feeling we might see him as some kind of sporting director somewhere in the near future.

And he got that German championship at Stuttgart, too. That's an accomplishment in its own right these days. He's definitely underrated by some, but I think most of us were pretty happy with him. Solid performances throughout. Not that much glamour, but he never messed up big time, either. At least not that I can remember.

 

[Lagger]

Bambi, the nickname just matches, reminds me on Müller in that age. Not the way he plays but his eagerness to learn and a lot of his mentality. He does not try to make too much show when he comes in - in difference to e.g. Coutinho last or Costa this season, but comes in, works hard in both directions, integrates well with the others and converts his chances well. Even if he can play in midfield he can work on the wing and is a good dribbler, something we do not have in abundance in the squad. His advantage for sure is that he knows how to play with the Bayern players and that they really rate him.

Given his slender stature and that he looks like he might fall over in gusty wind, yet somehow manages to keep his limbs under control and is already outdribbling some big boys, he reminds me more of a young Scholl than Müller.

 

[Tacitus56AD]

Given his slender stature and that he looks like he might fall over in gusty wind, yet somehow manages to keep his limbs under control and is already outdribbling some big boys, he reminds me more of a young Scholl than Müller.

I see alot of Özil in him.He gets to his spot in the pace and speed he wants,maybe not as stylish as Mesut did,but certainly as succesfull.His decision-making is allready top.And he certainly does not seem like a guy that would let succes turn his head or shift his focus - in that regard he is like Müller, but Thomas never was as shy as Jamal is,but maybe thats just him being humble.

 

[Wolf1992]

ter Stegen is undergoing surgery on his knee and will be missing the Euros.

Overall not exactly a very inspiring group of players if you ask me, will be interesting to see how they do.

Germany has a better squad than the 95% of teams that will be in the Euro, only France,Portugal,Netherlands and probably England/Belgium can match them in quality.

I think they will do OK.

 

[do.ob]

Germany has a better squad than the 95% of teams that will be in the Euro, only France,Portugal,Netherlands and probably England/Belgium can match them in quality.

I think they will do OK.

The first two teams you have named are in Germany's group, so that alone sets Die Mannschaft up for unfortunate events. And in any case: if teams like Portugal, the Dutch or Belgium are about level with Germany, then our system has failed.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

I am honestly kind of relieved Germany does not go into the tornament as a favorite. They were 2014, but thank god no one admitted it so the pressure wasn't too high. Also, historically speaking, Germany does not need the strongest squad on paper to compete on the highest level. They usually worked as a functioning collective with only some outstanding players and the rest playing as much for the team as possible, working their asses off. And I'd like to say that some of the most important key positions are actually filled with quality players. Neuer, Kimmich, Gündogan, Müller, Gnabry, Kroos, Havertz. Come on, that does not sound too shabby at all, especially if Kimmich plays as a right back.

Something like:

Neuer

Kimmich - Hummels/Süle- Rüdiger - Günter/Halstenberg/Gosens

Goretzka - Kroos

Müller

Sané - Gündogan - Gnabry

doesn't look too bad on paper. One might bench Gnabry, put Gündogan more up front and replace him in midfield with Havertz as well. Unfortunately, the defensive left side has been a rather weak link since quite some time. Höwedes was a great filler 2014 and contributed heavily to the success, but that was more or less mentality and not quality.

 

[do.ob]

I am honestly kind of relieved Germany does not go into the tornament as a favorite. They were 2014, but thank god no one admitted it so the pressure wasn't too high. Also, historically speaking, Germany does not need the strongest squad on paper to compete on the highest level. They usually worked as a functioning collective with only some outstanding players and the rest playing as much for the team as possible, working their asses off. And I'd like to say that some of the most important key positions are actually filled with quality players. Neuer, Kimmich, Gündogan, Müller, Gnabry, Kroos, Havertz. Come on, that does not sound too shabby at all, especially if Kimmich plays as a right back.

Something like:

Neuer

Kimmich - Hummels/Süle- Rüdiger - Günter/Halstenberg/Gosens

Goretzka - Kroos

Müller

Sané - Gündogan - Gnabry

doesn't look too bad on paper. One might bench Gnabry, put Gündogan more up front and replace him in midfield with Havertz as well. Unfortunately, the defensive left side has been a rather weak link since quite some time. Höwedes was a great filler 2014 and contributed heavily to the success, but that was more or less mentality and not quality.

I'm sorry, but you speak about a functioning collective and then you want to use Kroos as a holding midfielder? That just cracks me up.
Stuff like that, trying to cram all the big names and favourites in there instead of asking what the team needs, is exactly what made the 2018 WC such a disaster. Löw has not shown in 5 years that he is able to turn this group of players into a cohesive unit. Why should I put any faith in him now?
Ask yourself why you are naming 3 possible left backs, because despite having three years worth of preparation for this tournament Löw seems to have absolutely no idea who suits his ideas best there. The guy who is supposed to be the centerpiece of our attack has not played for Die Mannschaft in two years, neither has the guy who is supposed to organize the defense.
Three years of prep and Löw has to figure out things from scratch two weeks before kickoff.

 

[Piratesoup]

Neuer

Kimmich - Hummels/Süle- Rüdiger - Günter/Halstenberg/Gosens

Goretzka - Kroos

Müller

Sané - Gündogan - Gnabry

Gündogan as striker in front of Müller? I dunno about that...

 

[Rektsanwalt]

I'm sorry, but you speak about a functioning collective and then you want to use Kroos as a holding midfielder? That just cracks me up.
Stuff like that, trying to cram all the big names and favourites in there instead of asking what the team needs, is exactly what made the 2018 WC such a disaster. Löw has not shown in 5 years that he is able to turn this group of players into a cohesive unit. Why should I put any faith in him now?
Ask yourself why you are naming 3 possible left backs, because despite having three years worth of preparation for this tournament Löw seems to have absolutely no idea who suits his ideas best there.

As I said before, left backs are not good. Defense in general is not that great. Yea, I'd say that Kroos has too much quality to be left out and might work pretty fine playing with Goretzka who's more physical than Kroos. A bit like Martinez - Schweinsteiger back in the Bayern triple team. Loved watching these two and how they split midfield duties between them and I feel like Kroos/Goretzka are able to do that similarly. I am no fan of Löw either, but you can not deny the quality of Kroos. What would your ideal midfield look like? Please don't say someone like Can, Hofmann or Neuhaus..

Gündogan as striker in front of Müller? I dunno about that...

I don't rate Müller as a right wing or as a 9/false 9 at all. He excelled best when he played behind a striker, doesn't he? And considering there are Werner and Volland available to play as a striker, I'd rather have someone like Gündogan who recently worked pretty well considering his goal threat. Gündogan, Sané, Müller and Gnabry are strong technically, have enough goal threat, good assist potential and have pace to become a fluid attack imo. I don't want to see Werner missing sitters. I never rated Volland, but would like to be surprised and he seems to have played a rather successful season at Monaco. Still, I'd prefer said constellation.

 

[Swarm]

Germany has a better squad than the 95% of teams that will be in the Euro, only France,Portugal,Netherlands and probably England/Belgium can match them in quality.

I think they will do OK.

I think you really need to work on your percentages
By your own enumeration of teams stronger or on par it would rather be around 80%. And you conveniently left out that one team that thrashed Germany 6:0 just a few months ago.
All in all sure, the team is decent, but nothing to get overly excited about. At least I am not getting excited at the moment and I would consider myself someone that usually enjoys european and world cups a lot.

 

[do.ob]

As I said before, left backs are not good. Defense in general is not that great. Yea, I'd say that Kroos has too much quality to be left out and might work pretty fine playing with Goretzka who's more physical than Kroos. A bit like Martinez - Schweinsteiger back in the Bayern triple team. Loved watching these two and how they split midfield duties between them and I feel like these two are able to do that similarly. I am no fan of Löw either, but you can not deny the quality of Kroos. What would your ideal midfield look like? Please don't say someone like Can, Hofmann or Neuhaus..

I mean Kimmich has to play in midfield, because he's the only player in the entire squad somewhat resembling a holding midfielder.
Then probably Goretzka, because you need his athleticism - though last I heard he's injured?
And for the final spot either Gündogan or Müller.

Kroos, Goretzka is a double pivot where one player has the pace of Huntelaar and the other is a box to box player whos natural instinct is to join the attack. It's the closest you can get to repeating the master stroke that was Kroos Khedira in 2018.

 

[Swarm]

As I said before, left backs are not good. Defense in general is not that great. Yea, I'd say that Kroos has too much quality to be left out and might work pretty fine playing with Goretzka who's more physical than Kroos. A bit like Martinez - Schweinsteiger back in the Bayern triple team. Loved watching these two and how they split midfield duties between them and I feel like Kroos/Goretzka are able to do that similarly. I am no fan of Löw either, but you can not deny the quality of Kroos. What would your ideal midfield look like? Please don't say someone like Can, Hofmann or Neuhaus..

I think that is kind of the point here, none of these players really play the more defensive reliable part in defensive midfield. They are all to a certain extent more offensively minded except for Can, who is somewhat prone to gaffes himself but might actually be able to give the needed defensive stability in midfield. We don't really know what works though since Löw has not developed a starting eleven in the slightest.

I don't rate Müller as a right wing or as a 9/false 9 at all. He excelled best when he played behind a striker, doesn't he? And considering there are Werner and Volland available to play as a striker, I'd rather have someone like Gündogan who recently worked pretty well considering his goal threat. Gündogan, Sané, Müller and Gnabry are strong technically, have enough goal threat, good assist potential and have pace to become a fluid attack imo. I don't want to see Werner missing sitters. I never rated Volland, but would like to be surprised and he seems to have played a rather successful season at Monaco. Still, I'd prefer said constellation.

You really are proposing Gündogan to play as a striker even though he has not ever played the position? That just does not make any sense to me whatsoever.