German elections on Sunday 23rd February 2025

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
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So with the elections in Germany tomorrow I thought a separate thread would be good to discuss results, reactions etc.

Germany's rival political leaders will take their fight for votes right to the last minute in a push that reflects the pivotal nature of Sunday's election, not just for their country but for Europe as a whole.

All the mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD in government, but if it polls higher than 20% it could double its number of seats to 150 in the 630-seat parliament.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kgd25710do
 
HTG said:
So do Facebook, TikTok and the others.
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Are those specifically platforming far right ideas to everyone on the platform? If not then I feel like you can't ban it, the algorithm sucks but the right is simply gaming it properly.

Twitter is being used as a weapon vs the west
 
There has just been another immigrant stabbing attack... This time in France.

F*ck Russia.
 
atkar83 said:
Are those specifically platforming far right ideas to everyone on the platform? If not then I feel like you can't ban it, the algorithm sucks but the right is simply gaming it properly.

Twitter is being used as a weapon vs the west
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I know there is a difference between those platforms and you correctly pointed that out. However, I do believe that non of these platform are believable in their fight against disinformation and pose a threat to democracies worldwide. Until we have found ways to effectively regulate them, we should not let them operate.
That won't happen, of course, as these platforms are too powerful by now. But it is what should be done.
 
HTG said:
So do Facebook, TikTok and the others.
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Twitter needs to be banned, because musk, employed by US government is meddling in internal affairs of other countries. Does that make him a foreign agent. Musk and all his companies should be sanctioned and banned in EU.
 
If that poll turns out to be accurate, who do the CSU form a coalition with?
 
I expect the AfD to outperform the polls. 24 or 25%, I’m afraid.
 
John XII said:
If that poll turns out to be accurate, who do the CSU form a coalition with?
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If there is any hope for rational European politics, CDU, SPD and the Greens have to work something out. If they don't, there will eventually be enough internal pressure to give the AFD a chance. It doesn't matter which country it is, no electoral winner ever gives away power after an election. I'd put my money on a Grand Coalition of CDU/SPD
 
John XII said:
If that poll turns out to be accurate, who do the CSU form a coalition with?
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Well, Union (CDU/CSU) have excluded partnering with the Greens, and the Left is straight out as well. That means their only viable partner for a majority is the AfD, and if they do that they'll get publicly crucified. They've already sparks mass protests and public outrage by merely trying to push through a law using agreement by the AfD, without even being in any open agreement with them. Merz personally I'd estimate to not be above wanting to ally with the AfD, the man is a vile coldhearted scumbag who would sell his grandma for power. But too large parts of his party would not go along with that, I'd guess.

The alternative is another Union/SPD as the currently most likely outcome, but it's gonna be a close thing. The Bundestag will shrink to 630 seats this year after the reform, so a majority of 316 is needed, and it's possible that they might not reach that number combined.
 
John XII said:
Is their support in particular regions or a particular demographic?
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They are most successful with men between 30 and 60 I think. And they are very popular in the east. But there isn’t that one group of voters that votes them. They are popular in many segments of society, rich and poor, uneducated and academics.
 
John XII said:
Is their support in particular regions or a particular demographic?
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Eastern Germany more than the west, <25yrs more than the older voters, male voters more than female ones.
 
Jev said:
Eastern Germany. There’s an invisible iron curtain in this election.
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But why specifically is the AfD popular there instead of socially conservative left-wing parties like BSW?
 
VorZakone said:
But why specifically is the AfD popular there instead of socially conservative left-wing parties like BSW?
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AfD have been able to establish themselves quite strongly in Eastern Germany, particularly with Höcke in Thuringia, whereas SPD and CDU have less of a footing in the Eastern parts of the country. There’s a really widespread feeling in Eastern Germany of being left behind, economically and culturally, of being looked down upon and disregarded by Berlin, and AfD, with their anti-establishment, anti-immigration agenda, have managed to position themselves as the solution among many voters.
 
VorZakone said:
But why specifically is the AfD popular there instead of socially conservative left-wing parties like BSW?
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Multiple factors. But I’d like to start with pointing out that BSW isn’t socially conservative. They are flat out racist and xenophobic.

First of all, the east has only been a democracy for 35 years now. That’s not long. The people there often grew up with the west as their enemy. That resentment and a generally skeptical perspective on democracy itself still prevail in parts of eastern Germany.
Then there are economics. The East has next to no economical base. People there lack perspective for the future and are rightfully pissed. It doesn’t help that even functional aspects of the former East German system have been dismantled and even profitable businesses were closed. Those businesses that weren’t closed, were usually sold to the west, causing resentment towards westerners.
I think another issue is that they never had parties of their own, but instead had to accept the established western parties as their only real options. The only exception being the left party, which was often under extreme scrutiny by the media in the west.
Basically there is a sentiment there, that’s at least partially justified, that they were stripped for parts after the wall fell and instead of being unified, the east was taken over by the west. A party rallying against the establishment and the system like the AfD has it rather easy there.
 
HTG said:
Multiple factors. But I’d like to start with pointing out that BSW isn’t socially conservative. They are flat out racist and xenophobic.

First of all, the east has only been a democracy for 35 years now. That’s not long. The people there often grew up with the west as their enemy. That resentment and a generally skeptical perspective on democracy itself still prevail in parts of eastern Germany.
Then there are economics. The East has next to no economical base. People there lack perspective for the future and are rightfully pissed. It doesn’t help that even functional aspects of the former East German system have been dismantled and even profitable businesses were closed. Those businesses that weren’t closed, were usually sold to the west, causing resentment towards westerners.
I think another issue is that they never had parties of their own, but instead had to accept the established western parties as their only real options. The only exception being the left party, which was often under extreme scrutiny by the media in the west.
Basically there is a sentiment there, that’s at least partially justified, that they were stripped for parts after the wall fell and instead of being unified, the east was taken over by the west. A party rallying against the establishment and the system like the AfD has it rather easy there.
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I'm aware of why East Germany is more susceptible to extremist voices but I just wonder why they're running to the right instead of the left.
 
VorZakone said:
I'm aware of why East Germany is more susceptible to extremist voices but I just wonder why they're running to the right instead of the left.
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I don’t think calling BSW left-wing is accurate. She is left-wing on some issues and extremely right-wing on others (which will likely give her a good election in Eastern Germany, BSW just aren’t nearly as well-established there as AfD).
 
VorZakone said:
I'm aware of why East Germany is more susceptible to extremist voices but I just wonder why they're running to the right instead of the left.
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Because the left party has been demonised by the media here in the most extreme way. In parts for good reasons, as there were some former Stasi-members in the party. But mostly because any party or politician who supports socialist ideology will get crucified by our media. People don’t realise that the Springer press, owning die Welt and Bild, are a German light Version of Fox News, extremely influential and constantly doing whatever they can to sabotage the left.
So a mixture of internal issues within the party and extreme outside pressure.

Another aspect is that the East is still somewhat ideologically tied to Russia and gladly laps up disinformation campaigns from there. There’s also the matter that the AfD is simply much better financed and organised than the left party.
 
Jev said:
I don’t think calling BSW left-wing is accurate. She is left-wing on some issues and extremely right-wing on others (which will likely give her a good election in Eastern Germany, BSW just aren’t nearly as well-established there as AfD).
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HTG said:
Because the left party has been demonised by the media here in the most extreme way. In parts for good reasons, as there were some former Stasi-members in the party. But mostly because any party or politician who supports socialist ideology will get crucified by our media. People don’t realise that the Springer press, owning die Welt and Bild, are a German light Version of Fox News, extremely influential and constantly doing whatever they can to sabotage the left.
So a mixture of internal issues within the party and extreme outside pressure.

Another aspect is that the East is still somewhat ideologically tied to Russia and gladly laps up disinformation campaigns from there. There’s also the matter that the AfD is simply much better financed and organised than the left party.
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Thanks. The reason I ask is because East Germany lived under communist dictatorship and one would have perhaps expected some nostalgia and desire to return to policies like nationalization which are more on the left side of the political spectrum than the right.
 
VorZakone said:
Thanks. The reason I ask is because East Germany lived under communist dictatorship and one would have perhaps expected some nostalgia and desire to return to policies like nationalization which are more on the left side of the political spectrum than the right.
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Well, AfD is built on that desire in a sense.
 
VorZakone said:
Thanks. The reason I ask is because East Germany lived under communist dictatorship and one would have perhaps expected some nostalgia and desire to return to policies like nationalization which are more on the left side of the political spectrum than the right.
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The AfD is actually playing into that desire in ways. They are at least fulfilling the desire for autocratic rule and a certain simplicity.

And it’s not like the BSW doesn’t have success there. For a new party they enjoy respectable success over there.
 
Jev said:
Well, AfD is built on that desire in a sense.
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HTG said:
The AfD is actually playing into that desire in ways. They are at least fulfilling the desire for autocratic rule and a certain simplicity.

And it’s not like the BSW doesn’t have success there. For a new party they enjoy respectable success over there.
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Thanks.
 
VorZakone said:
I'm aware of why East Germany is more susceptible to extremist voices but I just wonder why they're running to the right instead of the left.
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To some extend, they did. PDS and later Die Linke always had their strongholds in the east. The results weren't as good as many would have liked, Die Linke was also torn apart by constant internal infighting and ideological dispute, plus mainstream media being generally antagonistic to them, so I guess now many want to try the other extreme. Also, PDS and Die Linke were never authoritative, and ironically enough plenty of people were actually looking back with rose-tinted glasses to a party who told them what to do, defined everything and offered an easy worldview where people did not have to think, just follow the party line.

But people also went to the far right from the start. The former GDR was also the region where NPD and other far right parties got their best results. I grew up in the former GDR, being born in '85. There was always a strong xenophobic undercurrent, ironically mostly because we had very few foreigners. People of African descent were an extreme rarity, Mediterranean or Arabic people basically completely absent. The only ones with some presence were vietnamese, and they kept mostly to themselves. A few restaurants, little junk shops with counterfeit plastic trash that hardly anyone ever shopped in... they were widely out of the public eye. I remember that my mother and many others tended to derisively call them "Fijis" for some reason - always seemed weird to me, but then again I recognized very early that my mother was a Grade-A moron. People weren't used to seeing foreigners. So when the Wall fell and things went tits up, tons of jobs being lost, drastically rising unemployment rates in states which basically had full employment until then, and the dream of freedom and prosperity quickly rotted... the "Wessis" (west Germans) who "plundered the GDR economy for all it was worth and then left them to rot", as was the narrative. The foreigners were an easy target to blame for competition for the jobs that were still there.

As for the established parties of SPD and Union, to some extend Greens too... well, the east lived under their rule for those past 35 years, and they felt ignored, exploited and looked down on. They'll trust any populist shitebag like BSW or AfD over them, simply because they are not them. And they offer easy populist bullshit, the world does not seem as complicated under them. They don't offer complicated explanations and tough plans, just buy cheap Russian resources for cheap fuel and heating, close all borders so foreigners cannot steal all the jobs while somehow simultaneously exploiting the social systems and bringing in all that crime, and then all is well in the world.
 
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WPMUFC said:
If the polling is decent, there are plenty of options to keep them out. It just requires all regular parties to put normality over populism.
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Out of the government, yes, but they'll end up the second biggest party in parliament. Absolute disaster
 
I don’t even know who to cheer for, it must be a very frustrating political time for Germans. I’d normally always support center left but SPD’s reign doesn’t seem overly successful and popular, and they’ve been quite shit on security, there have been some positives in Pistorius I guess. CDU/CSU seems nailed to win this but as noted above there are forces within the party that would consider allying with AfD or at least stealing their rhetoric, and the leadership of center right has been quite tiresome and weak for Europe for so long now. Greens I used to really respect and thought Germany is cool in having strong Green Party but they’re now to infiltrated by agents and for the idiocy with nuclear plants I’d never vote for them. Feck, it’s like choosing which of our strikers should start the next United game
 
amolbhatia50k said:
Come on Germany. Stamp put the nazi bastards.
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I know everybody is looking at the AfD but the CDU/CSU these days is far more worrying, IMO, and we need a nothing short of a miracle to prevent him from becoming chancellor.
 
hellhunter said:
Out of the government, yes, but they'll end up the second biggest party in parliament. Absolute disaster
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And they will make it more and more difficult for the rest to govern effectively. Governments like the last one and whatever anti-AfD coalition is formed next won’t work out in the long run. That’s not a way to govern functionally.
 
HTG said:
And they will make it more and more difficult for the rest to govern effectively. Governments like the last one and whatever anti-AfD coalition is formed next won’t work out in the long run. That’s not a way to govern functionally.
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Yeah for sure, and the less stability and productivity in the next government, the stronger AfD will be next time. Terrible spiral we entered
 
Red Star One said:
I don’t even know who to cheer for, it must be a very frustrating political time for Germans. I’d normally always support center left but SPD’s reign doesn’t seem overly successful and popular, and they’ve been quite shit on security, there have been some positives in Pistorius I guess. CDU/CSU seems nailed to win this but as noted above there are forces within the party that would consider allying with AfD or at least stealing their rhetoric, and the leadership of center right has been quite tiresome and weak for Europe for so long now. Greens I used to really respect and thought Germany is cool in having strong Green Party but they’re now to infiltrated by agents and for the idiocy with nuclear plants I’d never vote for them. Feck, it’s like choosing which of our strikers should start the next United game
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SPD shot themselves in the foot by sticking to Scholz. Everybody expected him to be a wet blanket, but I don't think anybody expected him to be quite this useless, unlikeable, passive and outright an obstacle when it comes to aid for Ukraine. Those idiots had the most well-regarded politician in Pistorius and the worst one in Scholz and decided to run with the latter...
 
hellhunter said:
Yeah for sure, and the less stability and productivity in the next government, the stronger AfD will be next time. Terrible spiral we entered
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Which is why I fully expect the AfD to win the next election. Especially since Merz is not only the least charismatic person in the world, but stands for an economic ideology that is not only completely inadequate to tackle the underlying issues within Germany, but is actually more of what got us into this situation to begin with.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we get another election in less than four years with more than 30% for the AfD.
 
VorZakone said:
I'm aware of why East Germany is more susceptible to extremist voices but I just wonder why they're running to the right instead of the left.
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It's a complete guess based on a similar situation in France. The "left" is made of people that don't really care about working class people or the youth, they haven't offered anything realistic in my lifetime and none of their historic bastions(former industrial regions) have posiitively evolved since the 80s. So for example the Haut de France, they have steadily moved from far left to the far right, and the main initial idea is to vote for the party that hasn't been given the chance to abandon them yet. Now of course there are some xenophobes and full blown racists mixed with that but it's not the core issue.
 
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