Backed Leganes @ 2.05 but didn’t post because I was afraid to jinx it, had a terrible run recently.
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
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Going for Velez -1 AH @ 2.0 against Tigre
Good home team and Tigre not the best. Think they’ll win and think I’ll at least get a push on this.
Good home team and Tigre not the best. Think they’ll win and think I’ll at least get a push on this.
I got rich on that game to. Put 100€ on Everton with 6.5 and another bet for 200€ on a draw with 4.2. cant understand these odds a draw was a really likely result.Went big on Liverpoolthank me whenever guys
Wound up hammering this into oblivion, will lay some of stake off tomorrow once England price drops for a nice free bet.
It's at 2.00 at the moment, you think it actually falls to 1.50?
Tigre 2-1 up, I was watching the game, it didn't seem like Velez were gonna win after the equaliser.
Should do yeah, Asia will price tomorrow morning, will drop to 1.7 then probably, will drop a bit more throughout the day as limits increase. I’ve got -1 asian handicap as the fair line, which translates to around 1.45-1.6 price for win.
Don’t go mental on it and bank on it dropping though, I’m happy with my stakes if the odds don’t drop.
No Ingram for the Lakers, Clippers might be a bet.
I'm on Leamington and Southport 0.75 tonight at evens. Line has dropped quite a bit already.
Thought I had posted this but oh well.
Went for a Over 2.5 double in the Melbourne/Daegu and Kashima/Johor games @ 2.45
Currently 1-1 in the Melbourne game after 33 mins
Went for a Over 2.5 double in the Melbourne/Daegu and Kashima/Johor games @ 2.45
Currently 1-1 in the Melbourne game after 33 mins
I'm backing Dortmund tonight. On a bit of a bad run tonight but they seem a big big at above evens.
Yeah can't see them not winning....although depends who scores first. Spurs score and it's game over. Fancy Dortmund with Derby and Bury treble. Might just do the first two though...
I fancy BTTS in both games so I’ll probably just do that.
Have gone Derby win and then over 1.5 goals in both CL games @ about 2.3.
Good info bad luck, Spiersey, on Kashima, Would've backed it but saw too late. Backed Hilal now and been lucky lately, it will turn for you now, I have foreseen it!
Fancy Virtus against Cuneo but it seems too good to be true really. 1.90 away from home but they’re easily the worst team in the league against the best.
Good info bad luck, Spiersey, on Kashima, Would've backed it but saw too late. Backed Hilal now and been lucky lately, it will turn for you now, I have foreseen it!
Johor scored their only chance of the game and Kash missing 5/6 massive chances in the 2nd half, very unlucky. Things improved a bit today barring that thankfully, need Hilal and England later for a decent day, will repair some of the damage.
Nakajima signed for Al Duhail
Backed them @ 1.75
Also have Benatia!
Backed them @ 1.75
Also have Benatia!
Nakajima signed for Al Duhail
Backed them @ 1.75
Also have Benatia!
Yeah he signed last month I think or in Jan. He's actually been signed for PSG to get around FFP. Duhail have the same owners, so guessing he'll be loaned/released on a free and join PSG in Summer. He's probably the best player to ever play in Qatar now given hes in his prime.
Yeah I was pretty surprised to see
£150 double on Derby and Dortmund tonight
This was awful. Lost 2-0
Did Al Duhail @ 1.75, won 3-0 and Al Hilal @ 2.10, won 1-0!
Not sure about tonight yet.
Great tip man, thanks! One down, one to go ;-)
I am going in early on a couple of bets on saturdays Biathlon in Østersund, on Nordicbet.
Womens sprint: Eckhoff @ 17 to 1 - She normally wins a at least 2 sprint races every season, shooting is the issue. Just won a pursuit in Canmore and is on form. She might just as well and up 30th if shooting is of, but is more than capable of shooting 9-10/10 - and will have a great chance if she does that, as not many can match her in the track.
Mens Sprint: Marcel Fourcade @ 7.5 to 1. Fourcade is the 2nd best of all time. Hadn't trained well before this season, but still had decent results. He has been working on his fitness without competing for the last 2 months now, and for an athlete with his track record I have to trust him to hit form for a World Championsship. Question marks around the big favourite Johannes Tingnes-Boe, who was really struggling on the last standing shooting in the world cup the last competitions. Fourcade in form would be a clear favourite here, along with JTB.
Super-G Kranjska Gora
Marcel Hirscher @ 2 to 1. Hirscher lost last super-G in the WC to Kristoffersen by 2/100 of a second. He is 5/7 this year, and was 6/7 last years WC. He will win again saturday.
Going Porto-Roma o2.5 tomorrow, not sure for tonight. See people like Dortmund, but they have been pathetic lately(as have Spurs), so staying away. Might back Real M. -1, quitefancy that.
Womens sprint: Eckhoff @ 17 to 1 - She normally wins a at least 2 sprint races every season, shooting is the issue. Just won a pursuit in Canmore and is on form. She might just as well and up 30th if shooting is of, but is more than capable of shooting 9-10/10 - and will have a great chance if she does that, as not many can match her in the track.
Mens Sprint: Marcel Fourcade @ 7.5 to 1. Fourcade is the 2nd best of all time. Hadn't trained well before this season, but still had decent results. He has been working on his fitness without competing for the last 2 months now, and for an athlete with his track record I have to trust him to hit form for a World Championsship. Question marks around the big favourite Johannes Tingnes-Boe, who was really struggling on the last standing shooting in the world cup the last competitions. Fourcade in form would be a clear favourite here, along with JTB.
Super-G Kranjska Gora
Marcel Hirscher @ 2 to 1. Hirscher lost last super-G in the WC to Kristoffersen by 2/100 of a second. He is 5/7 this year, and was 6/7 last years WC. He will win again saturday.
Going Porto-Roma o2.5 tomorrow, not sure for tonight. See people like Dortmund, but they have been pathetic lately(as have Spurs), so staying away. Might back Real M. -1, quitefancy that.
Is anyone familiar with the Opta variable "difficult angle" with regards to shot data? It is one of many variables that determine the xG value of a chance and I don't quite understand why a difficult angle (the variable can only take the values 0 or 1) increases the chance of scoring. Does it refer to the assist coming from a difficult angle?
Closed at 1.40 and 1.73. Watch them both lose now!
Is it not just referring to the angle of the shot i.e. the less central you are, the less likely you are to score? Thus the further away from goal you get the greater the difficulty of the angle is, and the chance of you scoring diminishes concomitantly.
I wanted to go for Ajax to qualify. I'm fecking furious with myself
Derby double chance @ 1.9 - is it a good choice ?
That's what I thought but the difficult angle variable increases the xG value and doesn't diminish it so it must be referring to something else.
This is the formula: (1-(1/(1+((EXP(-1.216+((Feet*0.913)+(Header*0.171)+(Centre of the box*0.262)+(Six Yard Box*0.249)+(Very Close Range*0.861)+(Left Box*0.514)+(Right Box*0.421)+(Outside of the Box*-0.334)+(Long Range*2.478)+(more than 35 yards*0.903)+(Difficult angle*0.056)+(Cross*-0.182)+(Set Piece*0.746)+(Free Kick*1.338)+(following a corner*0.763)+(Through Ball*0.463)+(Headed Pass*-0.029)+(Big Chance*1.409)+(Fast Break*0.835)+(Metres to Goal*-0.125)+(Def Pressure*-0.206)+(Num Def Players*-0.355))))))))
As you can see, certain variables (who all can take the value 0 or 1) diminish the chance of scoring (such as a headed assist) whereas others increase it.
I thought it be referring to the type of assist as it is grouped with the other assist variables.
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My head exploded reading this.
I know! Can't believe there isn't a variable for the wind conditions either.
Seems simple enough.
Had a good day today, however I got on another goal in the Ajax game literally seconds before Modric and Benzema bottled that chance and then a couple minutes later Ziyech missed the open net from a few yards out. Decent amount of profit but the last bet being a loser like that leaves a sour taste in the mouth. Just need England Women not to lose to top off a great day, have them in a treble with Kashima Antlers and Riyadh double chance (thanks @Spiersey, also had a double of Kashima to score in both halves and Riyadh not to lose)
England rotated a bit but Japs rotated loads, should win. Prices hit in a bit after teams, I've got 1.6 win fair with lineups, although England should dominate physically even more now given there a decent age gap.
I've thought Porto have a good chance to go through after they lost 2-1 in Rome and the odds have been decreasing as well. What do you guys think? It's @ 2.240 currently.
USA Women v Brasil Women - Over 3.5 @ 2.25
Would wait for lineups, overs should be good but they'll rotate huge I think, it's a meaningless game if theres a winner in England Japan (which is in theory good for overs).
You absolutely smashed it with his pick. The price kept dropping through the day. I got in play at a slightly better price than what it closed at. Nice one mate!
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