Staked some on over 2.0 in the Salzburg game at HT. Bound to get even more open than it is already with Salzburg needing to score.
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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You been on the phone to that GK?
I wish. Could do with another one!
Can't believe there was only two goals in that game
Backing over 3.0 in Ajax v Valencia and over 4.0 in Dortmund v Slavia. Set up perfectly, Dortmund are out at the moment and have to attack. Game has already seen ~2 xG for each side so they could as well be hit on the counter. Ajax have to at least draw to go through which should give Valencia a lot of space to counter.
No luck on the overs. There really should have been more goals in the Dortmund game at least.
Dortmund are so trash.
Needed Ajax for a 40/1 Acca with Pool, BTTS in Lyon, Benfica and a punt in Barcelona. Of course they were the odds on fave in the selection. After Juve at the weekend I can’t believe I’m not sat on a bank full today.
Decent day. Podgorica is actually tomorrow, the bookies had the wrong date down. 3 out 4 winners on the others, Pretoria the one letdown. +2.65 points.
One bet in the Championship tomorrow:
Should be 1.70, market implied ratings see Reading 0.6 goals ahead of Barnsley. It's 24th hosting 18th but both teams are better than their league positions. Reading should be close to the promotion spots and all of their recent defeats have been by the odd goal and could have gone either way.
| Barnsley v Reading, Reading 0 @ 2.00 |
Should be 1.70, market implied ratings see Reading 0.6 goals ahead of Barnsley. It's 24th hosting 18th but both teams are better than their league positions. Reading should be close to the promotion spots and all of their recent defeats have been by the odd goal and could have gone either way.
I had a little tragedy last night. Put 200 PLN on:
Ingram over 1.5 threes (had 4) at 1.60
Paul over 5.5 assists (had 7) at 1.80
Towns over 24.5 points (had 3) at 1.80
Markkanen over 1.5 threes (had 2) at 1.90
Lopez over 1.5 threes (had 3) at 2.45
Brogdon over 1.5 threes (had 2) at 1.90
Tristan Thompson over 8.5 rebounds (had 11) at 1.90
All of which won and gave around 70 odds. But I also put in a filler bet on Rockets to beat Kings to bump it up by an easy extra 10% (1.11 odds).
Rockets lost to a buzzer beater three from Bjelica, having led by two points just a second before end. I would have won 15k PLN, so about £3k.
I am still up by over 3k PLN on NBA in the last two weeks. Punting on:
Trae Young over 2.5 threes at 1.57
CJ McCollum over 2.5 threes at 2.00
Tobias Harris over 1.5 threes at 2.10
Bradley Beal under 8.5 assists at 1.70
200 PLN could win me over 2K.
Ingram over 1.5 threes (had 4) at 1.60
Paul over 5.5 assists (had 7) at 1.80
Towns over 24.5 points (had 3) at 1.80
Markkanen over 1.5 threes (had 2) at 1.90
Lopez over 1.5 threes (had 3) at 2.45
Brogdon over 1.5 threes (had 2) at 1.90
Tristan Thompson over 8.5 rebounds (had 11) at 1.90
All of which won and gave around 70 odds. But I also put in a filler bet on Rockets to beat Kings to bump it up by an easy extra 10% (1.11 odds).
Rockets lost to a buzzer beater three from Bjelica, having led by two points just a second before end. I would have won 15k PLN, so about £3k.
I am still up by over 3k PLN on NBA in the last two weeks. Punting on:
Trae Young over 2.5 threes at 1.57
CJ McCollum over 2.5 threes at 2.00
Tobias Harris over 1.5 threes at 2.10
Bradley Beal under 8.5 assists at 1.70
200 PLN could win me over 2K.
Wednesday for me:
FK Podgorica 2.50
Highlanders FC 2.37
Novelda 2.75
Gilport Lions 3.30
West Brom 1.66
FK Podgorica 2.50
Highlanders FC 2.37
Novelda 2.75
Gilport Lions 3.30
West Brom 1.66
CJ only got 1-8 threes and Beal got 9 assists. Very surprised about the latter as he only had 5 games this season before with 8 or more assists, he’s normally around 4-5.
Bet Reasoning Odd Profit DC Genk (risky) Napoli meltdown! 5.20 -5.00€ Benfica to win Last game, they need to win. 2.08 21.00€ Slavia Praga +2 Following you guys tip 2.05 81.00€ Tofas to win Rytas at home has been a bit inconsistent 2.13 -10.00€ Limoges to win (a bit risky) Venezia is already qualified, but if they take the game seriously... 2.15 1.40€ (very small arb )
Szombathely to win (risky) Dijon is doing a very smooth group round, but the Hungarians had made a few interesting results at home. 2.10 9.60€ 98.00€
What a great evening, many thanks to @Pagh Wraith with his brilliant tip of Slavia Praga
Yup, very good call on Slavia.
| Bet | Reasoning | Odd |
|---|---|---|
| Din. Zagred City Over 3.5 (a bit risky) | If Shakthar is playing poorly, Dinamo stands a chance. City will play more relaxed | 2.08 |
| Shakthar to win | Their home record is solid | 2.61 |
| Bayern -1 | Rotation gallore, but Spurs are weak against tougher opp | 2.20 |
| Neverkusen to win (a bit risky) | Juve is done with group stage. | 2.16 |
| DC Crvena Zvezda (risky) | Impredictable, but the serbs droped a lot lately | 2.55 |
| BTS PSG - Galatasaray (risky) | Yes, the turks suck, but PSG is rotating, so... | 2.08 |
| NDB Start (a bit risky) | Lillestrom is on a downward spiral. | 2.45 |
| Mamelodi HT | A bit risky, but... | 2.08 |
| UNICS Kazan to win (a bit risky) | Possible arb/trade | 2.10 |
| Strasbourg to win | Possible arb/trade | 2.04 |
Regretting a couple of these picks. I'd cancel if I could, but I'm not so bothered that I'm going to seek to lay off or anything. I'm very small stakes anyway (although up considerably from the ridiculous £0.10 I mentioned a couple of weeks back!) so it doesn't matter. Just £2 flat stakes on everything right now. It's all an experiment/a learning process at the moment.
1. Highlanders FC V Bulawayo Chiefs (Zimbabwe) - Bulawayo could really do with something to help them stay up. It's the penultimate match of the season and they're currently above the relegation spots by 1 spot. Highlanders don't have anything to play for. Highlanders are also big draw specialists with 15 draws this season and 3 in their last 5. They're a bit different at home where they've won 4 out of the last 5 but that's still many draws overall. Bulawayo only lost 1 out of the last 5. Regretting this pick overall and market hates it too, Highlanders all the way out to 2.80 from 2.37.
2. Miscellaneous v Gilport Lions (Botswana) - What I've been doing so far is trying to find value based off stats then taking a deeper dig. I don't think I thought this one through too deeply at all and mostly went with the stats which now look they threw up an anomaly to me. It highlighted that Miscellaneous are useless, won 0 at home so far this season, and that Gilport have won their last 2 away. Thing is, Gilport are useless too. Their away wins aren't actually necessarily indicating they're a better class team than Miscellaneous as their own home record is desperate too. I should have looked a lot deeper. It's 2 shite teams and anything could happen. Suppose 3.30 isn't too bad in that respect but I don't really favour them in retrospect. Even though Miscellaneous have 0 wins at home you've give them a home advantage factor of sorts. Gilport could still win, but it's a total stab in the dark. Reminds me a bit of a losing bet I had the other day in Argentina, where I took Central Cordoba + 0.5 away at Gimansia and they lost 2-1.
Not to mention that both these picks are in obscure leagues that I know nothing about. Then again, most of my bets have been so far. Sometimes been pleasantly surprised by things in leagues I don't know about so far as well. Watched my first ever game from the UAE the other day and the standard was a lot better than I would have guessed.
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Anyone betting on the PDC darts? I can't see past MvG really but might have a small e/w on a couple of outsiders.
Does anybody know if there is a anywhere that keeps a record of all that in-game data that bookies display as a game is live? This sort of stuff:
It wouldn't compare to xG, but shot count can be useful to an extent I think. Obviously you can find that sort of stuff for big leagues, it's everywhere, but for minor leagues I don't know where I'd get it. It all seems to disappear after a match is finished.
Guessing you might have to pay a lot? Perhaps from those who produce it like these.... https://www.rball.com/
It wouldn't compare to xG, but shot count can be useful to an extent I think. Obviously you can find that sort of stuff for big leagues, it's everywhere, but for minor leagues I don't know where I'd get it. It all seems to disappear after a match is finished.
Guessing you might have to pay a lot? Perhaps from those who produce it like these.... https://www.rball.com/
Total Corner has this sort of data for loads of leagues.
For example: https://www.totalcorner.com/match/corner-stats/84703905/Guiseley-vs-Kidderminster
For example: https://www.totalcorner.com/match/corner-stats/84703905/Guiseley-vs-Kidderminster
Thank you, much appreciated. Looks like a useful site indeed.
I use Wyscout as well but that's a professional scouting platform that clubs use. The basic subscription will set you back 200€/y.
There you get 25-page match reports that look something like this:
There you get 25-page match reports that look something like this:
UAE is pretty decent, good standard of foreigners and the locals aren't too bad either. If you keep watching obscure football you'll profit. UAE isn't that obscure though. Mycujoo is a great site for obscure leagues, they have stuff like Bhutan League, USA lower tiers etc all streamed. It's time consuming but very profitable if you have the time/patience.
Does anybody know if there is a anywhere that keeps a record of all that in-game data that bookies display as a game is live? This sort of stuff:
It wouldn't compare to xG, but shot count can be useful to an extent I think. Obviously you can find that sort of stuff for big leagues, it's everywhere, but for minor leagues I don't know where I'd get it. It all seems to disappear after a match is finished.
Guessing you might have to pay a lot? Perhaps from those who produce it like these.... https://www.rball.com/
Statisticsports and Betballers both keep track of these. Both are monthly subscriptions of around £30 a month. I've got a free membership for both though as I used to gamble with both owners, I prefer StatisticSports as it's more indepth but Betballers is a cleaner layout. Think both run trials also. They both have the data from any game thats been in play in the last 5 years basically.
I use Wyscout as well but that's a professional scouting platform that clubs use. The basic subscription will set you back 200€/y.
There you get 25-page match reports that look something like this:
Have you used Instat? I've got that currently, cost me £3k for a year but has highlights of basically every game ever. The statistic analysis looks pretty similar. Would probably rather just pay the £200 and just get the data. Does Wyscout cover more obscure leagues as well? Was meaning to try Wyscout to compare but never got around to it
Cheers, I'll check that out as well as StatisticSports/Betballers that you mentioned in the other post.
Interesting that you say the really obscure stuff can be profitable.I find it a bit scary to a degree even though I'm not really discriminating so far. My logic would assume that it's more unpredictable as players and referees won't be as good, they can always make a ridiculous mistake. That, plus you don't know if someone's reserve goalie is a 40 year old massively overweight bloke who works in a cake shop, and he might just be playing this week as the first choice is injured only you didn't know because there's not much info out there.
Suppose that's what it's all about though. Digging hard, acquiring knowledge and finding that info to give you and advantage. With the obscure stuff you might be able to find things that bookies or those laying on the exchanges don't at times. Of course, I'm nowhere near that level yet, just looking at league tables, form tables, home records vs away records, a bit of goal supremacy/poisson stuff as in this etc. to get some rough price approximations and trying to find value based off raw, basic stats.
Anyway, thanks again, I'll have a look at those.
I know Instat but 3k is a bit steep for my purposes
These are the leagues Wyscout cover: https://footballdata.wyscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Coverage-2018-19.pdf
Their video coverage is extensive as well. Full matches as well as highlights as in 20 sec clips of every action in the game. So if I wanted, I could watch a playlist of all 573 passes Liverpool played yesterday. I mainly use it for shot data/xG so can't really comment on the differences between the packages they offer.
Does it show highlights and full matches of smaller Leagues too? Like say the Jamaican League, Serie C or similar
Yes, all the leagues that are covered have videos as far as I can see. Though Jamaica specifically is not covered.
Here's a screenshot of a random Serie C team:
You can click on all the play buttons and watch individual shots/passes/challenges etc.
Yes, all the leagues that are covered have videos as far as I can see. Though Jamaica specifically is not covered.
Here's a screenshot of a random Serie C team:
You can click on all the play buttons and watch individual shots/passes/challenges etc.
Nice.. Cheers.. how about Futsal and womens?
Womens yes, Futsal no
Nice.. So, could it show the Danish women's League for instance?
The flip side about it being less predictable is that with the quality being lower, random goals occur less. At the top level, teams can get battered but they have the quality to take 1 chance on the counter.
If you work hard enough you can find info about the reserves etc. The reason these are profitable is that bookies only price them up based on league tables + home and away form. They don’t do any further research into them. By looking into these more in-depth then you can have a decent edge.
Conversely, for leagues where information is more readily available, bookies factor it into their prices.
If you need help with anything at all, feel free to PM me.
Re-staked Reading. Barnsley have been backed into favourites which is hard to comprehend. Reading have players back from injury as well.
on Juve +0.75 live @ 1.71. Too tempting
Got away with that one. Reading were seriously poor for 60 minutes but subs changed the game for them. Had a big chance to win it but that wouldn't have been deserved.
0-2 and safe money. Havertz was not that impressive. at least 90m looks like massive overprice for himAre there any annoying limitations to the basic package? I've seen their pricing page but I'm not sure what I'm looking at.
Not sure robbed is the right word given the -1 but bad luck.
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