Bet you were chitting it in the first quarter though..
I was going to take Spurs money line and I wish I wouldve because bet365 pays out if your team goes up by 18
Football Betting Thread 2017/2018
- Thread starter RedPed
- Start date
Bet you were chitting it in the first quarter though..
I was going to take Spurs money line and I wish I wouldve because bet365 pays out if your team goes up by 18
Obviously I was, but that's the point I'm making. GSW started terrible and Spurs gave it all and got even 19p ahead(best case scenario for spurs) and they still didn't stand a chance in the end and lost by 20. Thats why -6,5 for GSW @ even money was a great bet to have.
Edit: I followed the NFL tip(Buffalo Bills) fwiw small to try. That didnt work out. I dont watch that so was hoping to luck out.
I'll stick to NBA; Portland on a great start tho
Edit: I followed the NFL tip(Buffalo Bills) fwiw small to try. That didnt work out. I dont watch that so was hoping to luck out.
I'll stick to NBA; Portland on a great start tho
I'm doing the same now. I have basically had a neutral month profit wise after going significantly into green, now all I did for the last week was try to get the big win eventually which has backfired. Over the last two weeks I had five bets which would have e won me between £1k and £2k go south because of one bad result and a £5k potential win miss out by two of the most silly games ever. Even if I somehow grab that £1k win eventually I will still feel underwhelmed because of all those near misses.
Too late to the party obviously but regarding Portland game, never bet on teams that had to travel a long distance AND played in overtime the night before. It very often produces unexpected results.
Can't believe Arsenal!
Nadal was having some knee problems yesterday. Thinking of going for Krajinovic +5.5, Del Potro win and Cilic win
Actually, I think I'll just skip today.
Bills got destroyed! Luckily my hockey bet won though.
Big Nba slate tonight. I'm wondering if fading the Cavs will continue to be profitable.
Big Nba slate tonight. I'm wondering if fading the Cavs will continue to be profitable.
I am pretty confident about Wizards. Good team. Orlando should be a banker and I trust Denver and Houston to win their games too.
Yeah I fully agree with you, wasnt planning on betting that game. But was up some money and felt like watching another game; and it was another cracking game. It was a small gamble, felt like Portland should be doing better than they do and Lakers are usually still a tad overpriced. But i wasn't very sure on that one. They took an early 20p+ lead, but couldnt hold on to the handicap.
For tonight I'm looking at Boston +6,5 vs OKC. Boston have been my moneymaker for the last few games and look great. So want to bet on them again. But I'm not sure yet. Wizards, Hornets, Pelicans -5, Houston -8,5, Pacers are the other ones I'm looking at. Tons of games too choice from. Lets see what bets are going to stick. I'll decide later.
There is plenty of games tonight but a lot of them should be very close. I like Pelicans that you mentioned too, they are a bad matchup for Mavs down low. Wouldn't touch Pacers though.
Tomorrow's long shot.......
Huddersfield/West Brom - Draw
Southampton/Burnley - Draw
Valencia, Sheff Utd, PSG and Monaco wins
Just over 50/1
Huddersfield/West Brom - Draw
Southampton/Burnley - Draw
Valencia, Sheff Utd, PSG and Monaco wins
Just over 50/1
I actually like the Pacers at +5.5, that game should be close. Not a whole bunch of value in tonight's lines, I like Knicks -4 but will probably stay away from that. I like the look of some of the player props though. Lebron total over, Gortat total over, Anderson pooints over, Porzingis total over, Russell total over etc. Barbecuing right now, will look over and post later.
Handicaps like +5.5 are tricky in that even if it's close for 47 minutes, if Sixers separate themselves by just 4 points and Pacers miss a shot in the last 30 seconds, they will have to foul intentionally and it could grow the gap to 6 in no time. Personally I wouldn't touch this game because even though Indiana have exceeded expectations, they are really not that great of a side but a bunch of decent and good players who all need to perform well to get wins.
Thanks for taking the time to elaborate - I dont know if the first part should disqualify him though. Now I'm not saying im right, just that the system could be worth trying out. Im open for opinions, and I hope you are too for stats.
"Leagues with a "higher chance of a draw" (that isn't actually a thing)"
- But from my research it seems like it is actually a thing. I did my research before jumping into this system, so i've checked it out myself, and in some leagues the draw-rates are consistently higher - from 28-35 on average based on 13 seasons.
Here's a small overview of draw percentages pr league - stats are from 04/05 (if available) and forward to 16/17:
Segunda 28.6 28.4 25.8 32.9 31 31.4 27.7 24.2 25.5 29.7 29.2 31.2 31.6 - Average: 29.01538462 - This year: 36.4
Morocco 39.6 33.3 36.3 39.2 32.5 38.8 37.9 36.3 29.6 27.9 - Average: 35.14 - This year: 37.5
Iran 34.3 31 34.3 31.4 35 34.3 36.3 34.6 34.6 34.6 - Average: 34.04 - This year: 34.5
Seria B: 32.7 32.7 31.2 30.7 31.6 29.7 34 28.6 31.8 31.4 34.2 29 35.1 - Average: 31.74615385 - This year: 31.1
Now when you look at the odds for those leagues it is clear that some leagues have lower odds for the draw than others. For instance Iran has around 2.8-3.0 pr match, which is low. But Seria B has 3.32 for a draw in average looking at last round. A lot of teams who are equally good there.
If we say we're not great, but just average at betting - then a simplification would be to say 3.32 x 31.1 (the average this round x the average this year) = 103.25% if you bet in that league and you're average at betting.
Now, I'm not 100% sure this is logical, and its a small sample, so correct me if I'm wrong. I'm simply trying stuff out, but the above tells me that if I can find a match that has a high probability of draw with an around odds 3.32 - Then its not that bad a system. It doesn't seem like I will lose money from just betting blindly on draws, but probably come out even if I'm an average better. Question is if I can pick 3 out of 5 though - And does the system make up for the bad coupons, when I hit 3 or 4, or even 5? The hitrate is a BIG thing here.
The biggest dillemma, is to find the right matches - looking at this round, there was maybe 2 games out of 5 that I thought were good bets for a draw. The other 3 were decent.
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Fecking Cilic.. 
Ok. Got Boston(S), Boston +6,5(F), Washington(M), Washington -3,5(M) and -6,5(S), NO(F), NO -5,5(M), Houston(F), Houston -9(M).
Maybe another bigger handicap for the Wizards.
* (S)mall (M)edium (F)ull stake
Maybe another bigger handicap for the Wizards.
* (S)mall (M)edium (F)ull stake
Thinking about putting some money on Sock to beat Verdasco @2.20
edit: Already wish I didn't.
edit: Already wish I didn't.
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Orite, cheers for that. I'm on Wizards -3.5, lets fecking go!
What a performance by Sock to turn things around after the terrible start in the first set.
They have been very poor tonight, especially the backcourt which is a shock given that Cavs cannot defend backcourts but they are not even close to the level of ineptness that Magic have shown.
Yeh I've been watching, Wizards defending has been awful as well, they don't look too bothered tonight.
The Orlando game is a shock, how are the Bulls up by 20??Lebron was just too much tonight. Thankfully I cashed out the Pacers +5.5 when they were up 1 in the 4th because JJ Redick dominated the end of that game. Porzingis and Lebron came through, gortat did not, waiting on Hardaway (just got a basket to get it as I'm typing), Davis looking good, going to put some money on the Kuzma total over.
All the good football seems to be on Sunday, just have a few accas going for tomorrow, Valencia, Gladbach and Rangers treble my big bet.
Yeah LeBronJames didnt want to lose again. 57 points holy f. Ah well it happens. You expect it from LeBron but tought their D was still to bad to win it.
Houston converted both and Pelicans looking good. On to the Celtics game!
Great games all around tho these days in the NBA. Really been enjoying the play.
Houston converted both and Pelicans looking good. On to the Celtics game!
Great games all around tho these days in the NBA. Really been enjoying the play.
Goddamn, Of course Cousins goes for a technical foul up 8 with 52 seconds left for complaining to the ref. Still up 8 with 6 seconds left, instead of dribbling it out like the usually do, some Maverick goes for a three while Pelicans stopped playing already. Won only by 5 and needed +5,5. . Broke even on the game since they still won, but that was harsh.
. Broke even on the game since they still won, but that was harsh.Al Horford!
Yeah, Boston still makes me a winner in the end. What a lovely team that is, my favorite in the league atm.Kyrie
Tomorrow i'm only looking @ GSW -8,5 vs Denver. GSW picking up form and Denver are in a tough b2b having played today. Perhaps Pistons and Grizzlies depending on the line.
Good night gents
Gone for a Daegu win and small stakes on Daegu-Draw HT-FT (just in case) in the K-League. Haven't been winning much recently though!
Any guaranteed injured players on for FGS at Chelsea vs United tomorrow for my free bet?
Finally!
Perth Glory to win at home against a weakened Adelaide United who are missing 3-4 starters. Decent value in my opinion
I was one goal away from a Second Half BTTS treble last night in the Dutch league.
13/1
Also... one goal out of a BTTSW treble.
45/1
This is the third week running the same thing has happened.
feck rarrraaaa off !!!
13/1
Also... one goal out of a BTTSW treble.
45/1
This is the third week running the same thing has happened.
feck rarrraaaa off !!!
These are not leagues with a higher chance of a draw, these are leagues that have more draws. It is not the same thing. Odds of 3.33 reflect a 30% chance of an outcome happening, so even assuming a draw is more likely to happen based on previous results, your edge (which in my opinion doesn't exist) would be absolutely tiny, if it even exists at all.
Historical data has no relevance either, its a gamblers fallacy. Things such as h2h is generally irrelevant barring home bias etc. Likewise with draws in previous seasons, too many variables to make the data worthwhile.
Just because a team has a lot of draws in the season so Far, they aren't more likely to draw any particular game in my opinion.
Careful with Denver v GS. They are Warriors bogey team and absolutely destroyed them in Denver two years in a row. Warriors should still win but at low odds it will be poor value.
1 down 9 to go...
Goal fest in the championship... BTTS to score in each game!
Goal fest in the championship... BTTS to score in each game!
Hey guys, just wondering about something. Is there any list with all the games, results of them, and who reffed the game somewhere? In the PL?
Guess I could go game by game, but it's probably not worth of a hassle. Some quickly accessed list would do nice though.
Guess I could go game by game, but it's probably not worth of a hassle. Some quickly accessed list would do nice though.
I do this quite a lot but over 1.5s .Theres always one that will let you down!
Go on soccerway and find the specific referee page and it'll have all the games they've reffed and will show the number of cards too.