Football Betting Thread 2017/2018

Yeah but only Lyon is only @ 1,40. That seems rather low. Watford on Sunday vs Everton is @ 3,90. That seems def worth a punt.
 
Lazio at home to Nice seems OK, Lazio are awesome at scoring goals and Nice are really bad at the back.

As for Lyon, they are huge favorites - but you never know when Everton get a backlash from new energy, if there ever is such a thing. In that game I’ve gone for 8+ corners
 
Yeah 1.40 for Lyon is short, I wouldn't take that to be honest.

Cluj and Spurs on Sunday, Jokic on the Saturday week before, Dortmund last night and Atletico the night before have all cost me a total of £12.7k in potential winnings combined. This is rather unbelievable. While Cluj/Spurs were on a huge accumulator that had 25 or so games and I never expected it to win, that was really the closest of them all - Cluj had 17 or 18 shots, Spurs were still leading by 2 with a few seconds to go. Dortmund and Atletico failing to beat Qarabag and APOEL was probably the worst of it though, at home too.
 
James Peril said:
Lazio at home to Nice seems OK, Lazio are awesome at scoring goals and Nice are really bad at the back.

As for Lyon, they are huge favorites - but you never know when Everton get a backlash from new energy, if there ever is such a thing. In that game I’ve gone for 8+ corners
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Lazio will be playing their second string.

I've gone with two massive accumulators for £2 each tonight because I don't fancy myself winning, both are over 1000/1 and consist mostly of BTTS and home teams.
 
Sarni said:
Lazio will be playing their second string.

I've gone with two massive accumulators for £2 each tonight because I don't fancy myself winning, both are over 1000/1 and consist mostly of BTTS and home teams.
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Do you have any confirmation of this or just what you expect to happen? Immobile will likely be rested having got a knock at the weekend but was hoping the rest of the team would be at full strength.
 
I need La Equidad and Tolima tonight in the Colombian league to finish off an acca. They both look like nailed on certs.
 
Anyone up for joining me in finding possible draws over the next weeks?

I'm trying out a new system: 3 and 4 and 5 out of 5. (16 coupons in all) and find possible draws in leagues with high draw probability. The theory is that bookies are not that great at setting odds for the draw, and that the system will make it worth it if the bets are well-researched enough.

Criterias:
- Look in leagues with high probability of draw: Serie B, Premier League, Championship, Segunda Division, Russia PL, Iran 1, Argentina 1.
- Go for teams that even each other out. For example a home team with 3-3-1 and an away team with 4-2-1. In this example the away team is a bit stronger, but the home-advantage would even out things. Also games with low-scoring teams like Stoke - WBA or Chelsea vs Man Utd would be a good example. Here Chelsea has the home-advantage, but United look a bit stronger at the moment. Both teams will most likely be playing defensively, which wouldn't make it a goal-fest.

The idea is taken from here: http://metabetting.com/betting-draw-n44

Profits:
If 3 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 2 x the stakes
If 4 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 5.25 x the stakes
If 5 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 86.5 x the stakes

This is my coupon of draws this week:
Chelsea - Man Utd
Leonese - Barca B
Huddersfield - WBA
Bristol - Cardiff
Soton - Burnley
 
dorchy said:
Do you have any confirmation of this or just what you expect to happen? Immobile will likely be rested having got a knock at the weekend but was hoping the rest of the team would be at full strength.
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I think they have rested players in EL so far, have strong position in the league and heir qualification in EL is all but certain anyway with 9 points so far.
 
ROFLUTION said:
Anyone up for joining me in finding possible draws over the next weeks?

I'm trying out a new system: 3 and 4 and 5 out of 5. (16 coupons in all) and find possible draws in leagues with high draw probability. The theory is that bookies are not that great at setting odds for the draw, and that the system will make it worth it if the bets are well-researched enough.

Criterias:
- Look in leagues with high probability of draw: Serie B, Premier League, Championship, Segunda Division, Russia PL, Iran 1, Argentina 1.
- Go for teams that even each other out. For example a home team with 3-3-1 and an away team with 4-2-1. In this example the away team is a bit stronger, but the home-advantage would even out things. Also games with low-scoring teams like Stoke - WBA or Chelsea vs Man Utd would be a good example. Here Chelsea has the home-advantage, but United look a bit stronger at the moment. Both teams will most likely be playing defensively, which wouldn't make it a goal-fest.

The idea is taken from here: http://metabetting.com/betting-draw-n44

Profits:
If 3 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 2 x the stakes
If 4 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 5.25 x the stakes
If 5 matches with odds 3,2 are won with odds 3,2, I'll approximately win: 86.5 x the stakes

This is my coupon of draws this week:
Chelsea - Man Utd
Leonese - Barca B
Huddersfield - WBA
Bristol - Cardiff
Soton - Burnley
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Betting on draws isn't profitable long term.
 
I'm taking a shot on Astana to beat Maccabi Tel Avi @3.4. Astana need the win to keep up with Sparta Prague and Villarreal and they won 4-0 in the reserve fixture. Worth the shot at that price.
 
Think i may go for over 0.5 goals in every Europa game tonight...odds will probably only work out about 2/1 but worth a shot given that i can't seem to pick a winner at the moment!
 
Lyon should win this in the second half. Everton can barely string two passes together and are basically under siege in their own half.
 
ROFLUTION said:
Argument, please?
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Will give proper reasoning later if I can be bothered but trust me, it isn't profitable. Can tell instantly when the guy advising it is saying to do a Fibonacci sequence or multiples.
Leagues with a "higher chance of a draw" (that isn't actually a thing) would have it factored into the price if it was the case. The draw price is derived from the Asian handicap price, basically given the information he provided, you would be betting a draw on games priced on a 0 Asian (technically the most likely to draw) and this would result in the draw price being lower than another game which was on a -1.

I don't know a single professional gambler who bets on draws barring freak occasions where a draw benefits both. They are hard to predict and statistics doesn't help predict a draw. Quite a messy post as I'm on my phone, will tidy it up and give more reasoning later when I'm home and on laptop.
 
Spiersey said:
Will give proper reasoning later if I can be bothered but trust me, it isn't profitable. Can tell instantly when the guy advising it is saying to do a Fibonacci sequence or multiples.
Leagues with a "higher chance of a draw" (that isn't actually a thing) would have it factored into the price if it was the case. The draw price is derived from the Asian handicap price, basically given the information he provided, you would be betting a draw on games priced on a 0 Asian (technically the most likely to draw) and this would result in the draw price being lower than another game which was on a -1.

I don't know a single professional gambler who bets on draws barring freak occasions where a draw benefits both. They are hard to predict and statistics doesn't help predict a draw. Quite a messy post as I'm on my phone, will tidy it up and give more reasoning later when I'm home and on laptop.
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Must admit I laughed when I read the part about Fibonacci too. Let’s go to Vegas and start putting all on red with the Martingale-system ey? Sooner or later you have to win ;)
 
Someone able to talk me out of a Arsenal/Bilbao double? Both at home and the odds are almost double your money.
 
iammemphis said:
Someone able to talk me out of a Arsenal/Bilbao double? Both at home and the odds are almost double your money.
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Bilbao have been shite this season. Even lost at home to fecking Zorya Luhansk in the first round of the Europa League.

As for Arsenal - given their position in the group and their upcoming game at City on Sunday, they'll probably play the kids like in the game against Norwich in the EFL Cup.

That being said, both teams should be winning games at home against teams from Sweden and Serbia.
 
Having a go on AJ Accacio tomorrow.

Immaculate home record against Chateroux who cant seem to win.

3/4

Need to double it with something.
 
Jagga7 said:
I'm taking a shot on Astana to beat Maccabi Tel Avi @3.4. Astana need the win to keep up with Sparta Prague and Villarreal and they won 4-0 in the reserve fixture. Worth the shot at that price.
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Ship it! Astana won 1-0.

Salzburg and FCSB double @2.6.
 
Gahh, didn't realise Milan and AEK had played that was the last one on my accas, had Milan for some reason b365 didn't have the score next to the other results :(
 
Danny Roberts said:
Watford have lost their last 2 games.
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Yeah. But vs this Everton ill take a 3,9 quoye vs anyone.

I try to not bet EL up until QF usually. To much variance/2th string teams/lack of effort. Altough i had Astana today and got some small combos.

Saw GSW already moved from -6,5 to -8,5. Glad i took them big already while it was hot. Looking like a great bet. Cant wait for the game.
 
Had some ridiculous luck today. Too busy to do research so only did small stakes but I did a pre-game double of over 1.5 goals at Slavia Prague and BTTS in Hoffenheim's game, which both required very late goals to land. In-play I had over 2.5 goals at a game in Qatar which landed last minute, I got on over 0.5 goals at Lazio which was another very late one, and had a double which had Lyon to score before the 70th minute and that landed in the 69th.
 
Think I'm going to have a month off. Keep getting shafted from what look like straight forward enough games and then putting stupid bets on straight after to try and chase some money back. Not cool.
 
Carlsen19 said:
Think I'm going to have a month off. Keep getting shafted from what look like straight forward enough games and then putting stupid bets on straight after to try and chase some money back. Not cool.
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Chasing loses are easily one of the biggest traps in sports betting. We have all done it. Some time off sounds like a good idea, you will be back stronger.
 
There was a great interview on "Against All odds", the Cousin Sal podcast, where this bookie outlined why gambling is a terrible idea lol. Hit one of my accas, Arsenal ruined the other. Not a lot of NBA action tonight, got screwed by Hornaceck sitting Porzingis and Kanter in the blowout last night and Giannis somehow being in foul trouble again. Also the Wizards somehow managed to lose to Phoenix to ruin my parlay.
Lakers +6.5 with Portland playing 2nd of a back to back looks good. also taking Lonzo 23.5 total over and Draymond 25.5 total over, feel the Spurs will be leaving him open tonight. Also taking the total under in Bills-Jets, two good defences on a short week, hopefully there won't be much scoring.
 
Jetrooooo said:
I've got GSW -6,5 already for tonight @ SA. Line already moved to -7, but without Leonard and GSW picking up form and SA not yet. Feel like they gonna turn them over often enough, Took -10,5 too for the bonus.
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Very nice; Seemed like the bet of the month; They were down 19, outrebounded offensively 10-1, Durant started 0/9 and lots of turnovers, but they still won comfortably by 20. Wish i bet more, but got spooked because they odds went down. Still great tho. +1600E and lost 300E in Europa League. so still good day. And what a cracking game.

Feel like watching another NBA game, but unsure what to bet @ Lakers game. Think i'm going with Portland -6,5. Anybody more insights?
 
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