Expectations for the New Season

Top three is very doable with Chelsea still in flux, Liverpool dealing with their post-Klopp hangover, Ange potentially looking at a second season slump at Spurs.

We will need to sign well, CB is essential as is DM. Another striker too ideally.

The evidence of the last few games of the season is that the new hierarchy have briefed Ten Hag that kamikaze-ball is out, so I think we will look much more solid provided we don't have another injury crisis or fail to make any decent signings.
 
sugar_kane said:
Top three is very doable with Chelsea still in flux, Liverpool dealing with their post-Klopp hangover, Ange potentially looking at a second season slump at Spurs.

We will need to sign well, CB is essential as is DM. Another striker too ideally.

The evidence of the last few games of the season is that the new hierarchy have briefed Ten Hag that kamikaze-ball is out, so I think we will look much more solid provided we don't have another injury crisis or fail to make any decent signings.
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Is that what the evidence tells you?

This is from the last ten league games we played last season:

Brentford (A) 3,16 xG vs. our 0,99 xG (result 1-1 - lucky)
Chelsea (A) 3,48 xG vs. our 1,57 xG (result 4-3 loss)
Liverpool (H) 4,43 xG vs. our 0,81 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Bournemouth (A) 2,39 xG vs. our 1,52 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Sheffield United (H) 1,21 xG vs. our 3,51 xG (result 4-2)
Burnley (A) 1,90xG vs. our 3,06xG (result 1-1 - only unlucky result)
Palace (A) 2,07 xG vs. our 0,34 xG (result 4-0 loss - Should have been ETH's last match as manager and was rock bottom)
Arsenal (H) 1,73 xG vs. our 0,55 xG (result 1-0 loss)
Newcastle (H) 2,28 xG vs. our 1,50 xG (Result 3-2 win - lucky)
Brighton (A) 1,97 xG vs. our 1,00 xG (result 2-0 win - lucky)

xG for and against total:

24,62 expected goals conceded
vs.
14,85 expected goals scored

That's a negative expected goal difference from the last ten games of this season of 10 goals, including games against the weakest teams in the league. Over the whole season we had an expected goal difference of -14,45 (15th in the league)
We conceded exactly 200 shots in the last ten league games of the season (20th in the league - SHU conceded 174 shots in 19th).

The last 4 games alone: 8,05 xG against vs. 3,39 xG scored - That doesn't look solid or inspiring to me.
Unless you're refering to the City game alone. Which hardly can be called a trend....
 
Realistic expectations assuming some sensible, but not outrageously good, signings:

- Top 4 (70+ points)
- A style of play and continual control of most matches
- Not too bothered about the domestic cups this year but a decent run in Europe (win or loss to CL level contender without being outclassed)
 
troylocker said:
Is that what the evidence tells you?

This is from the last ten league games we played last season:

Brentford (A) 3,16 xG vs. our 0,99 xG (result 1-1 - lucky)
Chelsea (A) 3,48 xG vs. our 1,57 xG (result 4-3 loss)
Liverpool (H) 4,43 xG vs. our 0,81 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Bournemouth (A) 2,39 xG vs. our 1,52 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Sheffield United (H) 1,21 xG vs. our 3,51 xG (result 4-2)
Burnley (A) 1,90xG vs. our 3,06xG (result 1-1 - only unlucky result)
Palace (A) 2,07 xG vs. our 0,34 xG (result 4-0 loss - Should have been ETH's last match as manager and was rock bottom)
Arsenal (H) 1,73 xG vs. our 0,55 xG (result 1-0 loss)
Newcastle (H) 2,28 xG vs. our 1,50 xG (Result 3-2 win - lucky)
Brighton (A) 1,97 xG vs. our 1,00 xG (result 2-0 win - lucky)

xG for and against total:

24,62 expected goals conceded
vs.
14,85 expected goals scored

That's a negative expected goal difference from the last ten games of this season of 10 goals, including games against the weakest teams in the league. Over the whole season we had an expected goal difference of -14,45 (15th in the league)
We conceded exactly 200 shots in the last ten league games of the season (20th in the league - SHU conceded 174 shots in 19th).

The last 4 games alone: 8,05 xG against vs. 3,39 xG scored - That doesn't look solid or inspiring to me.
Unless you're refering to the City game alone. Which hardly can be called a trend....
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Unbelievably bad. There can't be many examples where a PL team has gone from this level one season to challenging for top 4 the next under the same manager. Would be a major turnaround.
 
Top 6 finish. SF of Europa League and a good Cup run. Both Manager and squad are meh, so about what is expected.
 
Expect a strong improvement on the woeful 8th as long as we don't get even sillier injuries or Ten Hag reverts to the don't worry about even pretending to stop teams cruising through midfield tactic.
 
troylocker said:
Is that what the evidence tells you?

This is from the last ten league games we played last season:

Brentford (A) 3,16 xG vs. our 0,99 xG (result 1-1 - lucky)
Chelsea (A) 3,48 xG vs. our 1,57 xG (result 4-3 loss)
Liverpool (H) 4,43 xG vs. our 0,81 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Bournemouth (A) 2,39 xG vs. our 1,52 xG (result 2-2 - lucky)
Sheffield United (H) 1,21 xG vs. our 3,51 xG (result 4-2)
Burnley (A) 1,90xG vs. our 3,06xG (result 1-1 - only unlucky result)
Palace (A) 2,07 xG vs. our 0,34 xG (result 4-0 loss - Should have been ETH's last match as manager and was rock bottom)
Arsenal (H) 1,73 xG vs. our 0,55 xG (result 1-0 loss)
Newcastle (H) 2,28 xG vs. our 1,50 xG (Result 3-2 win - lucky)
Brighton (A) 1,97 xG vs. our 1,00 xG (result 2-0 win - lucky)

xG for and against total:

24,62 expected goals conceded
vs.
14,85 expected goals scored

That's a negative expected goal difference from the last ten games of this season of 10 goals, including games against the weakest teams in the league. Over the whole season we had an expected goal difference of -14,45 (15th in the league)
We conceded exactly 200 shots in the last ten league games of the season (20th in the league - SHU conceded 174 shots in 19th).

The last 4 games alone: 8,05 xG against vs. 3,39 xG scored - That doesn't look solid or inspiring to me.
Unless you're refering to the City game alone. Which hardly can be called a trend....
Click to expand...
We did change tactics in the last four games of the season (Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and City) so we weren't so ridiculously open. That's not to say we necessarily played well, but the issues we did have in those games could fairly be attributed to the injury list (which was worse in those games than it had been at any other point of the season) rather than the chaos- / suicidal-ball that ETH had set us up for previously. As such we gave ourselves a better chance in those games, so even though there was some luck involved in the results it's not a coincidence that we broke out of the atrocious form we'd been in previously.

Of course the question is why did we change tactics in those games to be more compact?

a) ETH finally realised the chaos-ball wasn't working and decided to change.
b) ETH realised playing compactly against City was the only chance we'd have in the FA Cup final, and used those last few games to start getting used to that (it wasn't exactly the same, but it was closer to the City tactics than what we'd used previously).
c) Wilcox or one of the other higher-ups told him to.

If it was A (which I think is unlikely seeing as he stubbornly refused to change for the previous 48 games) or B, there's a fair chance he'll want to go back to trying to make chaos-ball work next season once he has a presumably fit and better squad. If it was C, then he won't.
 
It's impossible to know what to expect next season when we don't know which squad of players we'll have but if we don't get rid of quite a few and buy really well then we'll be in for another miserable season.
 
In the third season, we should at least be comfortably finishing in the top four - but sadly, won't finish any higher than sixth. So, no expectations.
 
It's dependent on the transfers for me. If we went into next season with the same MF I think we struggle to reach top 6. We need to have a very good window to be in with a shout for top 4.
 
RobertoBaggio99 said:
Expect a minor improvement in performances which sees us roaming around 6th to 9th, reaching KO stages of EL without impressing, a GD of ~+5, and the sacking of ETH by december/january. Interim manager comes in and we finish 6th, ~30 pts behind 1st place. No cup wins.
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Sounds about right to me - only I doubt it'll be an interim in the winter, think it'll be someone like Southgate
 
Off the field changes are encouraging, but that won’t win us football matches although if we get it right in the transfer market and keep most everyone fit we might actually have a good season.

Do I feel positive? A little, but I’ll wait to see if the big changes off the pitch can impact on the playing side and stop the rot of the last decade because Ten Hag could use some help.

We have a good bunch of young players and they have done great. Some of the more experienced players have not. We still don’t have an obvious leader in the team and a quality CB, MF and a lethal finisher are essential if we can find/afford one.

I’m hoping with the right players coming in that we can finish top 4 minimum.
 
It all depends on transfers. We still seem to be dithering about fees required (Branthwaite) and will miss out to a smash and grab from the likes of Chelsea, resulting In a late panic buy
 
Not sure where all these top 3/4 expectations are coming from, other than wishful thinking. We have an average squad, a manager that gets less out of it than the sum of its parts, and a tight budget to change things. I’m hoping we’ll play better than last season and at least look like a top 4 contender rather than a bottom-half side but I can’t see us finishing above fifth or sixth.
 
trevor newnham said:
It all depends on transfers. We still seem to be dithering about fees required (Branthwaite) and will miss out to a smash and grab from the likes of Chelsea, resulting In a late panic buy
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Dithering? Smash and grab?
Are you a tabloid sub heading generator?
 
He’s been backed enough in the market again

3rd season

Been allowed to get his desired staff in

No excuse not to qualify for the CL
 
Top 4 should be minimum and playing decent football. If there is no progress in style he has to go. He’s been backed now and has his squad. No more excuses. It doesn’t need to take 5-10 years for a rebuild.
 
My expectations are a lot lower and lot more realistic I guess. Even with Ugarte I don't expect the team finish in the top 4, I'd say 6th looks more likely. Why am I saying this? 1. Erik ten Hag. An awful, tactically clueless manager. 2. Lack of marquee signings. Three defenders (a cheap moroccan, a dutch guy who's value and performance constantly decreasing for years now and an 18 years old guy who started his career with a serious injury), and a mediocre CF who had awful statistics in Italy. Even with Ugarte this won't be enough for a top 3-4 finish. No quality wingers (Rashford should go, Amad isn't bad but not good enough for a top team) and one striker, Hojlund with potential. Opta predicted the team to finish the season in 7th, I'm not that pessimistic, I say 6th.
 
I think it depends on how this window ends. The more players we get rid of that were part of previous eras, the greater the probability that we finish higher up the table.

I'd love to see the back of a few more players and hope that the new signings bring in a competitive fighting culture. Too many seasons have gone but where we have watched united player pop in for training, attend an game and go home with millions.

I'll be honest, I've never seen ugarte play, hadn't seen zirkzee ever play nor yoro. I had seen mouzaouri and de ligt. I really like the zirkzee signing, I find it shrewd business, to the contrary of what the newbie dude said above. We need a striker that has an obsession to get in the box and score goals, especially from the bench. Yoro looked decent in that one pre season game, but he's young and I guess needs time to bed a new league and team. De ligt and mouzaouri are solid signings and ugarte, the more I read, everyone seems excited but I'm struggling to understand how he can turn around the first 2 games of misery into something better.

The fundamental issue with this team is the look clueless and still do not fight. This has to be down to coaching. Most of these players are now Hags. My prediction this year is 6th.
 
Signing Ugarte is a step in the right direction but it doesn't really move the needle in terms of an expected outcome this season.

We are still going to struggle significantly to score enough goals.

5th is likely our ceiling if everything goes right. If everything goes wrong (another injury crisis) it could be 7th or 8th.

If we manage 4th it'll be up there as one of the surprises of the season.
 
Not going to get too hung up on league position numbers but I expect us to finish within 10 points of the champions and have a a goal difference greater than +38.

Cup runs are nice, I’d expect us to go deep in at least one out of three, hopefully two out of three.
 
I expect us to get mauled over by Fred and Amrabat vs Mourinhos Fenerbache in Turkey the 24th October…
 
I expect us to play football on a field in a stadium in front of spectators in both the league and cup competitions.

I expect us to field 11 players in each of the games, to score goals and to concede goals, and to make substitutions.
 
I expect to look forward to each game and hope to win and enjoy the 90+ minutes in us doing so.
If you are watching and expecting us to win and that dictates your mood for the day then look within and find something meaningful and happy in your life.
 
Can't wait to see the new defenders and new defensive midfielder in action!
 
I think our first 11 is pretty good. I think defensively we will be much more solid and hopefully no more giving away silly late goals. Going forward is still a question mark. Hoping for continued improvement from our young players. Midfield is a bit scary - we can’t control games here and only Ugarte has the stamina to finish a game without being dead on his feet.

It really depends upon injuries. Which already aren’t looking great. If we get Shaw back soon and manage to keep our key players fairly fit we should finish top 4. Otherwise it could be anywhere in the top 8.
 
Good football and Champions League next season. I don’t care about cups. That’s the requirement for me to back EtH.
 
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