Once Onana joins and if Hojlund joins, we'll have made bigger improvements from where we were. Though points wise/standings wise I felt it was a bit deceiving and we were at our extreme positive end that we could have done past season (despite massively underperforming our xG, which is a weird mix). So the improvement should at least make that level of high 70s/low 80s be a realistic level for us. Arsenal massively overperformed their points total as well, and the margins are much tighter the higher you go. Rice will improve them, but with added CL football it is unlikely they do as well in the league. Liverpool for me was a big part down to motivation - they have shown to be up there with City over the past 5 years, the drop off is a fluke season more than anything.
If I had to bet on tiers, I'd say United and Arsenal will have similar seasons, while Liverpool will catapult and be the closest to compete with City, while city is an unknown due to motivation after completing everything. They could well have a down season. Chelsea I'd put with Newcastle as fighting for the last CL spot, but could sneak in if one of the others flop (and no European football for Chelsea could give them a false position in the league where they just go on a run while the others are fatigued).